2024-04-21 08:42

US retail sales beat forecasts, rising 0.7% in March. Fed officials became more cautious about the timing of rate cuts. Ueda said the BoJ would hike rates if yen weakness leads to high inflation. The USD/JPY weekly forecast charts a bullish course, fueled by positive US data and fading expectations for Fed rate cuts. Ups and downs of USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair had a bullish week characterized by dollar strength. The dollar had another strong week as rate cut expectations fell on upbeat data and hawkish Fed remarks. Notably, US retail sales beat forecasts, rising 0.7% in March. This followed the hot inflation and jobs figures, indicating a robust economy. As a result, Fed officials became more cautious about the timing of rate cuts. Powell avoided giving guidance, noting the high rates might stay longer. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, Japanese authorities continued their verbal warnings against the yen’s decline. Ueda even said the BoJ would hike rates if yen weakness leads to higher inflation. Notably, the yen briefly strengthened on Friday due to safe-haven demand amid escalating Middle East tensions. Next week’s key events for USD/JPY Next week, the US will release data on durable goods and economic growth. At the same time, investors will focus on the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting. The core durable goods orders from the US will show the state of demand in the economy, which impacts the Fed’s rate cut outlook. High demand will keep the Fed cautious about cutting rates too soon. Moreover, the GDP report will show whether the economy has expanded. Given the economy’s resilience, there is a high chance the figures will be positive. Finally, traders eagerly await the BoJ policy meeting after Kazuo Ueda signaled a possible rate hike. USD/JPY weekly technical forecast: Bulls target 156.00 level, channel resistance On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is rising steeply after breaking above the 152.00 key level. The price was caught in a tight consolidation below this level for a long time. However, bullish momentum surged when it finally broke above. At the same time, the price is approaching the resistance line of its bullish channel, where it might reverse. This could mean retesting the 156.00 critical resistance level. However, the RSI is in overbought territory, indicating near-maximum bullish momentum. If bulls get exhausted soon, the price might reverse, break below the 22-SMA and target the channel’s support line. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/21/usd-jpy-weekly-forecast-dollar-bid-amid-hawkish-fed/

2024-04-20 10:42

The AUD/USD weekly forecast is overshadowed by strong US retail sales data and deteriorating risk sentiment. Poor employment data from Australia and Middle East tensions weakened the Aussie. Australia will release its CPI report next week. The AUD/USD weekly forecast unveils a bearish trend due to the dual forces of dollar resilience and escalating geopolitical tensions. Ups and downs of AUD/USD The Aussie ended the week with a bearish candle amid economic data from the US and Australia. When the week began, the US released higher-than-expected retail sales data, which indicated robust consumer spending in the economy. As a result, rate-cut bets fell, and the dollar rose. Moreover, Powell’s speech on Tuesday confirmed that the Fed would hold higher interest rates for longer to tackle inflation. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, poor employment data from Australia and Middle East tensions weakened the Aussie. Australians lost jobs in March, indicating a slowing labor market. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Australia will release its CPI report next week, while the US will release durable goods orders and GDP data. The CPI report will play a significant role in shaping the outlook for RBA rate cuts. At the moment, there is a 65% chance that the RBA will cut rates in December. Therefore, if the report shows further easing in inflation, bets for the December cut might increase. Meanwhile, the RBA might cut rates next year if inflation remains stubborn. The Fed’s rate cut outlook might change with next week’s data. Higher-than-expected durable goods orders and economic growth would lead to a decline in rate-cut expectations. The opposite is also true. AUD/USD Weekly technical forecast: Bears eye 0.6851 support after range breakout On the daily chart, the AUD/USD price is declining after breaking out of consolidation. Initially, the price started a steep downtrend at the 0.6625 key level. However, it paused and moved sideways below the 0.6300 key resistance level. Moreover, it respected a support trendline and bounced higher every time it retested the level. At the same time, the price kept breaking through the 22-SMA, showing a lack of direction. However, bears have confirmed the continuation of the previous downtrend with a break below the support trendline. Additionally, the price has fallen well below the 30-SMA and the RSI far below 50, indicating strong bearish momentum. This move might continue next week, with bears targeting the 0.6851 key support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/20/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-geopolitics-take-toll-on-aussie/

2024-04-19 08:46

XAU/USD is bullish despite temporary drops. A new lower low activates a corrective phase. Escaping from the up channel pattern announced exhausted buyers. The gold price pared gains after reaching today’s high of $2,417. The metal is trading at $2,381 at the time of writing. Despite the temporary correction, the bias is still bullish in the medium to long term. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- After its strong upward movement, minor drops may occur due to profit-taking. Yesterday, the US reported mixed economic data. The Unemployment Claims remained at 212K in the last week, even if the traders expected a potential growth to 215K. At the same time, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index came in at 15.5 points versus 1.5 points in the previous reporting period. On the other hand, the Existing Home Sales and CB Leading Index report poor data. Today, the yellow metal rallied on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, the XAU/USD seems overbought in the short term, posing a risk of downside correction. Fundamentally, the MPC members, Breeden, Rasmsden, and Mann speeches could bring some action later today. Right now, Gold is fighting hard to rebound and recover after the last sell-off because UK retail sales rose by 0.0%, less than the estimated 0.3% growth and 0.1% growth in the previous reporting period. As you can see on the hourly chart, the XAU/USD extended its growth within an ascending channel, reaching a new all-time high of $2,431. Now, it has escaped from this pattern, signaling buyers’ exhaustion. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, the prices returned higher, and the broken uptrend line was tested. It has found resistance at the weekly R1 of 2,416. The false breakouts with great separation through this static resistance and above the uptrend line reveal an overbought situation. It’s trapped between R1 (2,416) and the pivot point $2,359. Escaping from this range could bring us new opportunities. If it closes below the pivot point, a corrective phase could be activated after making a new lower low. However, a larger correction will be confirmed only after taking out the 2,318 downside obstacle. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/19/gold-price-retreats-as-tensions-ease-following-israel-attack/

2024-04-19 08:23

There were reports that Israel had attacked Iran in retaliation. Ueda said the BoJ might have to hike rates if the yen continues falling. US unemployment claims held steady from the previous week. The USD/JPY price analysis paints a bearish picture, influenced by the yen’s surge. The surge came from soaring safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. At the same time, BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda signalled a possible rate hike if the yen continues its decline. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- On Friday, the yen gained popularity among investors as one of the traditionally safe assets. This happened after reports that Israel had attacked Iran in retaliation. Consequently, investors feared the war would escalate, leading to a decline in risk appetite. However, the USD/JPY pair reversed most of its decline soon after, as it became unclear whether the attack had happened. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday that the central bank might be forced to hike rates if the yen continues falling. According to him, a further decline in the yen could lead to a spike in inflation. A rate hike would give breath to the yen, which has recently fallen to its lowest level since 1990. Therefore, investors will watch the BoJ policy meeting next week for more clues on the rate hike outlook. Data revealed that US unemployment claims held steady from the previous week, missing forecasts for a slight increase. It indicates continued strength in the US labor market, which has remained resilient despite high rates. Therefore, markets continue pushing back the timing of the first Fed rate cut. USD/JPY key events today There are no economic events in the US or Japan today. Therefore, investors will keep an eye on the Middle East. USD/JPY technical price analysis: 30-SMA puncture signals strong bearish momentum. On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is bullish as it sits above the 30-SMA and is making higher highs and lows. However, bears recently made a strong candle that punctured the 30-SMA support. This indicated a surge in bearish momentum. However, they failed to close below the SMA. Moreover, the price pulled back from the 154.00 critical level. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Despite the failed attempt, bears have shown they might be ready to take over. Moreover, the attempt came after the RSI made a bearish divergence, signaling a possible reversal. A break below 154.00 would allow the price to retest the 152.00 key level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/19/usd-jpy-price-analysis-yens-demand-soars-after-israel-attack/

2024-04-19 06:58

Investors dumped risk assets on Friday amid fears of an escalation in the Middle East war. In March, Australians lost 6,600 jobs. Markets are placing a 65% chance on the first RBA rate cut in December. The AUD/USD outlook takes a bearish turn as the risk-sensitive Aussie fluctuates following unsettling reports of Israel’s attack on Iran. Moreover, the currency grapples with the fallout from a lackluster jobs report. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Investors dumped risk assets on Friday amid fears of an escalation in the Middle East war. Notably, there were reports that Israel had retaliated after Iran’s recent attack. As a result, investors were worried that the war might worsen. This sent them to more traditional safe-haven currencies like the yen and the Swiss franc. Meanwhile, risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie and the Kiwi suffered. Although the move was sharp, it reversed soon after, as Iran denied reports of the attack. At the same time, investors were reeling from poor employment reports from Australia. In March, Australians lost 6,600 jobs, a sharp reversal from February’s blockbuster figure. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 3.8%. Such a miss in employment should have pushed up rate cut expectations. However, a Reserve Bank of Australia cut remains far off. The easing in the labor market is a relief for the central bank, but it is slow. Therefore, markets are placing a 65% chance on the first rate cut in December. This outlook keeps the RBA behind the Fed as markets expect the first US cut in September. Nevertheless, monetary policy outlooks keep changing with incoming data. AUD/USD key events today Traders will focus on developments in the Middle East war, as no key reports come from Australia or the US. AUD/USD technical outlook: Large wick signals rejection below 0.6400 On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is on a downtrend, with the price trading below the 30-SMA and the RSI almost oversold. However, the decline has paused at the 0.6400 critical support level. Bears tried to break below this level but failed when the price reversed to make a big wick. This is a sign that bulls have rejected the move lower. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, given the bearish bias, the price might make another attempt to break below. If it fails, it might pull back to retest the 30-SMA resistance before targeting the 0.6350 key level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/19/aud-usd-outlook-volatility-surges-amid-israel-iran-tension/

2024-04-18 12:23

The false breakdowns announced a new leg higher. The median line acts as a magnet and attracts the price. Taking out 1.0664 signaled further growth. The EUR/USD price is trading in the green at 1.0678 at the time of writing. The pair looks positive to hit new highs near 1.0700 area. The US dollar is in a corrective phase; hence, the Euro can post a meaningful recovery. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- After the last drop, the currency pair was somehow expected to correct higher. Yesterday, the Eurozone Final CPI and Final Core CPI came in line with expectations. Today, the Eurozone Current Account was reported at 29.5B below the expected 45.2 B and 39.3B in the previous reporting period. The US Unemployment Claims are expected to jump from 211K to 215K in the last week, which could be bad for the USD. Furthermore, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to be at 1.5 points, versus 3.2% in the previous reporting period. Existing Home Sales could drop from 4.38M to 4.20M, while the CB Leading Index may report a 0.1% drop. Positive US figures should lift the USD. Also, the FOMC members’ speeches could change the sentiment in the short term. Tomorrow, German PPI could bring some action. Technically, the EUR/USD price found support on the lower median line (lml) of the descending pitchfork, and now it has turned to the upside. The false breakdowns announced exhausted sellers and a potential swing higher. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The pair has passed above 1.0664, signaling further growth. The 1.0700 psychological level is seen as the next potential target and obstacle. In addition, the median line (ml) and the weekly pivot point represent resistance levels as well. The median line acts as a magnet and attracts the price. The current rally towards this dynamic resistance is natural after failing to take out the lower median line. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/18/eur-usd-price-aiming-to-test-1-07-level-as-risk-tone-improves/