2024-04-05 12:15

The US economic data should move the rate. Taking out the upper median line activates further growth. Failing to stay above 1.0864 announced exhausted buyers. The EUR/USD price is trading in the red at 1.0833 at the time of writing. The pair comes under selling pressure after posting a 2-week top above 1.0870. –Are you interested to learn more about low spread forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Today, the fundamentals should be decisive. Surprisingly or not, the greenback took the lead in the short term even though the US Unemployment Claims came in at 221K versus 213K expected, while Trade Balance dropped from -67.6B to -68.9B in the last trading session. On the other hand, the Eurozone Final Services PMI and German Final Services PMI came in better than expected, but the Eurozone PPI reported a 1.0% drop, beating the 0.6% drop expected. Today, the German Factory Orders, German Import Prices, and Retail Sales reported poor data. Still, only the US economic data should have a major impact. The NFP is expected at 212K versus 275K in February. The Unemployment Rate should remain at 3.9%, but the Average Hourly Earnings may announce a 0.3% growth in March versus a 0.1% growth in the previous reporting period. In addition, the Canadian Unemployment Rate and Employment Change should also bring action. Technically, the EUR/USD price ended its swing higher after registering only a false breakout through the ascending pitchfork’s upper median line (uml). It has also failed to stay above the 1.0864 former high, signaling exhausted buyers. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- It has dropped below the weekly R1 (1.0846), but the sell-off could be only temporary. As mentioned earlier, the fundamentals should move the price, making anything possible. Staying near the upper median line (uml) may announce an imminent breakout and continuation. Still, it’s premature to talk about this scenario. New false breakouts through this dynamic may announce a new massive drop. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/05/eur-usd-price-faces-bearish-pressure-ahead-of-us-nfp/

2024-04-05 10:07

Unemployment claims in the US rose to a two-month high last week. The dollar gained when Fed policymakers made hawkish remarks on Thursday. Markets are expecting a drop in US employment. The current GBP/USD price analysis leans towards the bearish side, influenced by the dollar’s surge amidst dwindling Fed rate cut expectations. Moreover, the dollar is steady ahead of the crucial US monthly employment report. –Are you interested to learn more about low spread forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The greenback has fluctuated wildly in the past week as investors adjust their expectations for Fed rate cuts. At first, poor data on service activity and unemployment claims had investors gaining confidence that the Fed would cut rates starting in June. Consequently, the GBP/USD pair rallied to new highs. However, the trend reversed when Fed policymakers made hawkish remarks later on Thursday. Some officials have lost confidence that inflation will soon reach the 2% target as it has stalled. As such, they called for patience as the Fed needs more time to assess incoming data. Moreover, if inflation remains hot, there might be no need for a rate cut this year. These remarks had traders scaling back rate-cut bets, with most now expecting the first cut in July. However, the rate cut outlook might change again when the nonfarm payroll report is released. Markets are expecting a drop in employment. A bigger-than-expected drop might have policymakers rethinking their recent statements. Meanwhile, data showed that the UK economy gradually emerged from its shallow recession. Composite data showed a slight drop in activity, although it held above 50 in expansion. If the economic outlook brightens, it might allow the BoE to hold rates for longer as inflation trends lower. GBP/USD key events today US average hourly earnings US employment change US unemployment rate GBP/USD technical price analysis: Price shatters resistance trendline, embraces bullish trend On the charts, the GBP/USD price has broken above a strong resistance trendline, reversing the trend to bullish. The price made a big bullish candle that broke above the 30-SMA, indicating a shift in sentiment. Meanwhile, the RSI finally broke above 50, a strong resistance separating bearish from bullish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- The price has retreated to retest the SMA, while the RSI retests the 50 level. Given the bullish bias, the price might soon bounce higher to make a new high above the 1.2650 key resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/05/gbp-usd-price-analysis-pound-pares-loss-ahead-of-us-nfp/

2024-04-05 08:46

The dollar strengthened on hawkish Fed remarks. The yen firmed after hints that the BoJ might hike interest rates. US data on Thursday revealed a surge in unemployment claims. The USD/JPY outlook is mildly bullish as the dollar gains momentum on hawkish Fed remarks. Yet, the yen is also holding its ground, fueled by hints of potential interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan. At the same time, there is caution in the markets ahead of the NFP report. The dollar rallied despite a poor employment report on Thursday as Fed officials pushed back rate cut expectations. Initially, the dollar fell after the US released data showing a surge in unemployment claims. The jobless claims rose to a two-month high, indicating a rise in unemployment. Consequently, rate-cut bets increased. However, this soon changed when Fed officials assumed a hawkish tone. Some officials, including Neel Kashkari and Thomas Barkin, said the Fed still had enough time to ensure inflation would reach its target. Therefore, there was no hurry to cut rates. Kashkari even said there might be no need for rate cuts this year. These remarks damped rate-cut expectations and pushed the dollar higher. Investors will now watch the nonfarm payrolls for more clues on rate cuts. Economists expect a decline in employment in March. However, gains were small in the USD/JPY pair as the yen also strengthened. Notably, BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda said inflation will likely accelerate after the recent pay hikes. Market participants took this as a hint that the central bank might be planning another rate hike. Consequently, Japanese yields soared, boosting the yen. At the same time, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki warned that authorities would do all it takes to stop more sharp declines in the yen. USD/JPY key events today US average hourly earnings m/m US nonfarm employment change US unemployment rate USD/JPY technical outlook: Bears find footing below the 30-SMA On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken below the 30-SMA with strong bearish candles. At the same time, the RSI now trades below 50, supporting bearish momentum. The price has traded in a tight consolidation since it made an engulfing candle. However, it has now made a strong move lower that could lead to further declines. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Before the price continues lower, it might pull back to retest the 30-SMA as resistance. Bears will likely target the 150.00 key support level if the SMA holds firm. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/05/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-rises-amid-bojs-intervention-signals/

2024-04-04 13:29

US unemployment claims rose more than expected last week. Data revealed a slowdown in the US services sector. Oil prices rose on Thursday amid supply concerns. The USD/CAD outlook points to a bearish trend, with the dollar weakening as a surge in unemployment claims reinforced expectations for a June Fed rate cut. Concurrently, the Canadian dollar is firm, propelled by the upward momentum in oil prices. –Are you interested to learn more about low spread forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- US unemployment claims rose more than expected last week, showing signs of easing in the labor market. Jobless claims rose to 221K from 212K. This report follows another poor one from the previous session, showing weaker economic activity. On Wednesday, data revealed a slowdown in the US services sector. Although activity levels held above 50, showing expansion, there was a slowdown, indicating service sector demand is declining. Consequently, price increases in this sector might also come down. The recent poor reports have given traders more confidence to bet on a June Fed rate cut. Canada’s services sector also slowed down in March, falling further into contraction due to higher interest rates. This might pressure the Bank of Canada to start cutting interest rates in June. Investors await next week’s BoC policy meeting for more guidance on the rate cut outlook. However, they expect the central bank to maintain rates at 5% in April. Meanwhile, oil prices rose on Thursday amid supply concerns after the OPEC group decided to continue with output cuts. Moreover, the group urged member countries to improve their compliance with output cuts. Consequently, oil hit a five-month high, boosting the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD key events today After the US jobless claims report, investors will wait for more labor market data tomorrow. USD/CAD technical outlook: Price is poised to break below a crucial trendline On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is on the verge of breaking below a strong support trendline. The bearish bias is strong because the price trades well below the 30-SMA, and the RSI soon enters the oversold region. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- For some time now, the price has reached higher lows. However, it has failed to make new highs beyond the 1.3600 critical resistance level. This is a sign that there are a lot of sellers at 1.3600. And now, the trend might change when the price closes below the support trendline. However, bears must break below 1.3450 to make lower lows to confirm a new direction. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/04/usd-cad-outlook-dollar-drops-as-unemployment-claims-surge/

2024-04-04 12:53

The bias is bullish, so further growth is possible. The US data should be decisive tomorrow. Only taking out the 151.00 psychological level activates a correction. The USD/JPY price is trading in the green at 151.75 at the time of writing. The pair seems determined to reach new highs. Despite minor retreats or consolidations, the bias is bullish, so an upside continuation is on the cards. –Are you interested to learn more about low spread forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The price stays higher even though the US dollar slipped lower. Yesterday, the US reported mixed economic data. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came in better than expected. However, ISM Services PMI was disappointing, while Final Services PMI matched expectations. Today, the US Unemployment Claims are expected to jump from 210K to 213K, which could be bad for the greenback, while the Trade Balance is expected to be -66.9B versus -67.4B in the previous reporting period. Furthermore, the US Challenger Job Cuts and the Canadian Trade Balance data will also be released. Also, the FOMC Member Barkin and FOMC Member Mester speeches should have an impact. The US dollar needs strong support to resume its growth. Tomorrow, the Japanese Leading Indicators and Household Spending should move the rate in the morning, but only the US economic data should be decisive. The US will release the NFP, Average Hourly Earnings, and Unemployment Rate. From a technical point of view, the USD/JPY price stays right below the 151.90 – 151.94 resistance levels, so an imminent breakout is favored. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- The price moved sideways after failing to stabilize above the ascending pitchfork’s median line (ml). After the previous rally, an accumulation was widely expected. The bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the 151.00 psychological level. Only dropping below this key downside obstacle activates a corrective phase. Taking out the 151.94, making a new higher high validates further growth. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/04/usd-jpy-price-looking-for-bullish-continuation-eyes-on-us-nfp/

2024-04-04 08:34

The US released data showing a slowdown in services growth. The non-manufacturing PMI fell from 52.6 in February to 51.4 last month. In March, Eurozone inflation fell to 2.4% from 2.6% the previous month. The EUR/USD forecast reveals bulls leading as the dollar falters on signs of inflation relief. Moreover, the EUR/USD pair has gained despite increased rate cut expectations in the Eurozone. –Are you interested to learn more about low spread forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- On Wednesday, the US released data showing a slowdown in service growth. This is a relief for the Fed as it indicates a moderation in inflation. Consequently, investors increased their bets that the central bank will start lowering interest rates in June. The non-manufacturing PMI fell from 52.6 in February to 51.4 last month. Although the sector is still in expansion, it has slowed down. Inflation in the service sector has been a major pain point for most central banks. Although headline inflation has eased significantly, services inflation is falling at a much slower pace as demand remains high. On Friday, the US will release the nonfarm payrolls report, showing the state of employment. This report will greatly affect rate-cut bets if it comes below or above forecasts. In the Eurozone, data on Wednesday revealed a big drop in headline and underlying inflation. In March, inflation fell to 2.4% from 2.6% the previous month. This gives the European Central Bank enough reason to start cutting interest rates in June. However, analysts believe some policymakers will remain cautious as services inflation remains high at 4%. EUR/USD key events today US unemployment claims EUR/USD technical forecast: Bulls take the lead with solid momentum On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has risen sharply, breaking above the 30-SMA. This rally has led to a shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish. Furthermore, there was a surge in bullish momentum when the RSI rose to trade slightly below the overbought region. The shift came after the RSI made a slight bullish divergence. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- However, the price is approaching a strong barrier comprising the 0.5 Fib level and the 1.0850 key resistance. Additionally, there is a resistance trendline above this area that might halt the bullish move. If the price pauses, it could pull back to retest the 30-SMA support. However, if bullish momentum surges, it might break past these resistance levels to make new highs and confirm a bullish reversal. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/04/eur-usd-forecast-dollar-softens-amid-signs-of-economic-easing/