2024-03-18 16:34

As long as it stays below the downtrend line, the XAU/USD could approach and reach new lows. The fundamentals should move the rate during the week. After such impressive growth, a correction is natural. The gold price rallied in the last hours and now trades at $2,163. The precious metal has dropped slightly in the short term, but the bias remains bullish. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- Fundamentally, the XAU/USD turned to the upside as the US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Capacity Utilization Rate, and Empire State Manufacturing Index came in worse than expected. Today, Chinese industrial production rose 7.0%, beating the expected 5.3% growth. Retail Sales registered only a 5.5% growth, less than the 5.6% growth forecasted. Unemployment Rate jumped unexpectedly from 5.1% to 5.3%, while Fixed Asset Investment came in better than expected. Furthermore, the Eurozone Final CPI and Final Core CPI matched expectations, while the Trade Balance was reported higher at 28.1B above the 14.2B estimated. The BOJ and the RBA are expected to keep the monetary policy tomorrow, but the press conferences should move the markets. In addition, the Canadian Consumer Price Index may announce a 0.6% growth after only a 0.0% growth in the previous reporting period. The FOMC and the UK CPI represent high-impact events on Wednesday that remain pivotal for the gold. Technically, the XAU/USD dropped within a down-channel pattern. It could print a more extensive correction if it stays below the downtrend line. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- The weekly pivot point of $2,165 stands as a static resistance. The price could try to test the resistance levels in the short term. We have a vital confluence area at the intersection between the pivot point and the downtrend line. A valid breakout activates further growth, while false breakouts may announce a new sell-off. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/18/gold-price-calm-near-2160-as-fed-boe-loom/

2024-03-18 10:11

The pound plunged last week due to a drop in Fed rate cut expectations. The Fed will meet on Tuesday and likely keep rates unchanged. The Bank of England will meet on Thursday and likely hold rates at the current 5.2% rate. The GBP/USD outlook reveals a slight bullish tilt as the pound recovers from last week’s decline ahead of major central bank meetings. Notably, the pound is stronger as markets price in a slower shift to rate cuts by the BoE than the Fed. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- However, the pound plunged last week as the dollar strengthened due to a drop in rate cut expectations. As the week began, markets had priced at a 71% chance that the Fed would cut rates in June. However, data in the week showed that inflation was higher than expected. Consequently, traders scaled back rate cut expectations, leaving the chances of a cut in June at 57%. Unfortunately, as Fed rate-cut bets decline, the pound loses its rate-cut outlook edge. Initially, there had been a big gap in the expectations for rate cuts between the US and the UK. Markets had seen more cuts in the US than in the UK, boosting the pound. However, this outlook has gradually shifted, closing that gap. The Fed will meet on Tuesday and likely keep rates unchanged. Meanwhile, the Bank of England will meet on Thursday and likely hold rates at the current 5.2% rate. Notably, a survey on Friday revealed a drop in inflation expectations in the UK for 2024. Therefore, this paves the way for rate cuts in the UK. Still, policymakers might keep a neutral tone at the meeting. GBP/USD key events today It could be a slow day for the pound as there are no high-impact events. Therefore, investors will likely stay on the sidelines ahead of major policy decisions in the week. GBP/USD technical outlook: Bearish bias strengthens below 1.2750 On the technical side, GBP/USD has broken below the 1.2750 key support level to make a lower low, confirming a bearish bias. Moreover, the 30-SMA is now facing down, showing a downtrend. At the same time, the RSI trades below 50 in bearish territory. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- However, recent declines have paused at a bullish trendline, as shown in the chart above. Bears must break below this trendline to confirm the new direction. Otherwise, bulls might return at the trendline support to push the price to new highs above 1.2850. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/18/gbp-usd-outlook-pound-recovers-ahead-of-key-policy-decisions/

2024-03-18 09:10

There is a 39% chance that the BoJ will hike on Tuesday. The Fed will meet on Wednesday and likely hold rates. There is a 57% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in June. The USD/JPY forecast shows a slight upside potential, with the currency steady ahead of central bank meetings in Japan and the US. While the Fed will likely maintain its current rates, all eyes are on the Bank of Japan, with a 39% chance of a hike on Tuesday. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- Notably, the dollar strengthened last week due to upbeat economic data that weakened the case for a Fed rate cut in June. This led to a decline in the yen that extended to this week. When last week began, markets had been hopeful that the Fed would cut rates after Powell’s dovish testimony to Congress. However, data during the week revealed higher-than-expected consumer and producer prices, leading to a decline in rate-cut bets. Therefore, investors will focus on the economic projections and the press conference when the Fed meets on Wednesday. Policymakers might sound less dovish after the surprising inflation reports. If this is the case, bets for a cut in June will fall further. Currently, there is a 57% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in June. Meanwhile, the outlook for rate hikes in Japan brightened on Friday. Companies in Japan agreed to big wage increases that will likely pave the way for interest rate hikes. The Bank of Japan will meet on Tuesday, and there is a chance it will hike rates. USD/JPY key events today The pair will likely consolidate ahead of the central bank meetings as there are no key economic releases today. USD/JPY technical forecast: Price confronts strong resistance at the 0.618 Fib On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is trading at a strong resistance zone comprising the 0.618 Fib and 149.01 key levels. Moreover, the bullish bias is strong, with the price well above the 30-SMA and the RSI near the overbought region. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- However, the price might reverse at the strong resistance zone after such a steep move. Still, a pullback would likely retest the 30-SMA support before the bullish move continues higher. If the price breaks above the 0.618 Fib, it might climb to the 150.75 resistance level. On the other hand, bears might return if the price breaks below the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/18/usd-jpy-forecast-holds-ground-ahead-of-boj-fed/

2024-03-16 14:16

Consumer and producer prices rose more than expected. The data showed a smaller-than-expected increase in US retail sales. Investors expect policy decisions in the US and Australia. The AUD/USD weekly forecast is bearish as Fed policymakers might dial down their dovish tones in response to lingering inflationary pressures. Ups and downs of AUD/USD The AUD/USD ended the week down as the dollar strengthened amid signs that US inflation remains high. When the week began, the US released its consumer inflation report. Notably, the figures were higher than expected, leading to a decline in rate cut expectations. Additionally, data on Thursday showed a bigger-than-expected jump in producer prices, raising concerns that high inflation is back. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- Meanwhile, other data showed a smaller-than-expected increase in US retail sales. Moreover, initial jobless claims in the US fell last week. The mixed data increased uncertainty about the Fed’s rate cut outlook. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week, investors will focus on policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Reserve. Moreover, Australia will release employment and unemployment figures, showing the state of the labor market. A Reuters poll revealed that the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely maintain rates at Tuesday’s meeting. Notably, at the last meeting, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock said there was still a chance of rate hikes. However, markets believe the next move will be a cut. Still, there is no certainty when the RBA will start cutting interest rates. Meanwhile, the Fed will likely hold rates at 5.50% as policymakers continue assessing incoming economic data. However, the press conference after the decision might change the outlook for rate cuts. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bears challenge bulls at the 22-SMA On the daily chart, AUD/USD is in a corrective bullish move following a sharp decline. The price is above the 22-SMA with the RSI above 50, showing bulls are in the lead. However, the move up is shallow and confined in a channel. Moreover, the price is reversing after finding resistance at the 0.6651 key level. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- Bears will eventually break below the SMA and the channel support if this is a corrective move. A break below would allow the price to make another impulsive leg to the 0.6301 support level. However, if bulls have gained market control, the price will bounce higher to break above the 0.6651 level and make a new high. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/16/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-fed-to-adjust-tone-amid-high-inflation/

2024-03-16 09:16

US consumer and producer price data revealed a spike in inflation. There was optimism that major companies in Japan would increase wages. Investors will pay attention to policy decisions in the US and Japan. The USD/JPY weekly forecast shows upside potential as expectations of a June Fed rate cut dwindle amid signs of high inflation. Ups and downs of USD/JPY USD/JPY had a bullish week as the dollar strengthened and the yen weakened. The dollar strengthened as consumer and producer price data revealed a spike in inflation. As a result, the chances of a Fed rate cut in June fell. If the Fed holds higher interest rates for longer, the dollar will keep rising, weighing on the yen. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- Meanwhile, the yen lost some strength when the BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda gave a weak assessment of the economy. However, there was optimism that major companies in Japan would increase wages. A wage hike will allow the Bank of Japan to start hiking interest rates. Next week’s key events for USD/JPY Next week, investors will pay attention to policy decisions in the US and Japan. Recently, there has been a lot of speculation on a possible policy shift in Japan. Markets expect the Bank of Japan to start hiking interest rates. Moreover, there is a chance the central bank will pivot at next week’s meeting as companies in Japan are ready to give their workers big pay increases. Increased pay means better consumer spending, paving the way for higher borrowing costs. On the other hand, the Fed will likely hold rates next week. Additionally, investors will pay attention to economic projections and the press conference for more clues on rate cuts. USD/JPY technical weekly forecast: New bearish momentum pauses at 146.51 On the technical side, USD/JPY is climbing after finding support at the 146.51 key level. However, the bias is still bearish because the price trades below the 22-SMA. On the other hand, the RSI seems ready to trade in bullish territory above 50. Still, bulls will only take over when the price breaks above the 22-SMA and the 150.75 key resistance level. If this happens, the price will likely retest the 152.02 key resistance level. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- However, if the trend has reversed to the downside, the price will respect the 22-SMA and bounce lower. Still, bears must make a lower low below 146.51 to further confirm the new bearish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/16/usd-jpy-weekly-forecast-hotter-inflation-fades-rate-cut-odds/

2024-03-15 12:27

The bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the median line (ml). A new lower low activates more declines. The US economic data should have a big impact today. The EUR/USD price is trading in the red at 1.0890 at the time of writing and is fighting hard to rebound. After the last bearish movement, you can expect an upside correction. The US dollar turned to the upside in the short term, weighing down today’s currency markets. Yesterday, the greenback received a helping hand from the US economic data. The Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales reported an important growth in February after a significant drop in January. In addition, the PPI, Core PPI, and Unemployment Claims came in better than expected. Today, the US economic figures should move the price. The Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected to be at -7.0 points. Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment could jump from 76.9 points to 77.1 points. Industrial Production may report a 0.0% after a 0.1% drop in the previous reporting period, while the Capacity Utilization Rate could remain at 78.5%. Furthermore, the Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations and Import Prices data will also be released. Positive data helps the greenback resume its appreciation. The currency pair turned to the downside after registering only a false breakout with great penetration through the warning line. Failing to stay above the upper median line (uml) could result in a larger correction in the short term. Now, the pair has found demand again, right below the median line (ml) and above the 1.0867 key downside obstacle. The bias remains bullish despite the current drop as long as it stays above these downside obstacles. A new lower low activates more declines towards the lower median line (lml) and down to 1.0800 psychological level. On the other hand, stabilizing above the median line (ml) may announce a new rally. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/15/eur-usd-price-paused-losses-ahead-of-1-0867-support-post-ppi/