2025-07-05 18:02
The AUD/USD weekly forecast indicates some bearish sentiment. Risk sentiment was poor following the passage of Trump’s tax-cut bill through the US Senate. The US economy added 147,000 jobs in June, above the forecast of 111,000. The AUD/USD weekly forecast indicates some bearish sentiment as market participants prepare for an RBA rate cut. Ups and downs of AUD/USD The AUD/USD price had a bullish week but closed well below its highs. Initially, downbeat data at the start of the week helped support the Aussie. However, risk sentiment was poor after Trump’s tax-cut bill passed through the US Senate. At the same time, there was uncertainty ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariff deadline. Moreover, the US released an upbeat employment report on Friday. The economy added 147,000 jobs in June, above the forecast of 111,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate was unexpectedly low at 4.1%. As a result, Fed rate cut expectations eased, and the dollar strengthened. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week, market participants will focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting. Economists in a Reuters poll this week said they expect the central bank to cut interest rates a third time since inflation has eased and the economy is slowing down. The move might weigh on the Australian dollar. Meanwhile, traders will also pay attention to the FOMC policy meeting minutes. These might contain clues on the outlook for future rate cuts. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Momentum fades after range breakout On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is pulling back after breaking out of a consolidation area. It still trades above the 30-SMA, a sign that bulls are in the lead. At the same time, the RSI trades slightly above 50, suggesting strong bullish momentum. After making a sharp bullish move, the price stalled and began trading between the 0.6400 support level and the 0.6500 resistance level. The range held for some time until bulls gained enough momentum to push the price out of the consolidation. However, while the price has made a higher high, the RSI has not. This indicates that momentum is waning from its previous high. Therefore, bulls might struggle to reach and break above the 0.6601 level. Meanwhile, if bears become stronger, the price will likely break below the SMA and return to the range area. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/05/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-traders-gear-up-for-rba-rate-cut/
2025-07-04 12:47
The EUR/USD price analysis reveals growing uncertainty about the outlook for tariffs on Eurozone goods. Data in the previous session revealed unexpected strength in the US labor market. Market participants are watching the July 9 tariff deadline. The EUR/USD price analysis reveals growing uncertainty about the outlook for tariffs on Eurozone goods as the deadline approaches. Progress in talks between the US and the Eurozone has been slow, yielding no deal. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened after data revealed resilience in the labor market. The Eurozone is under pressure to get a trade deal before the July 9 deadline. If not, the US will impose high tariffs on Eurozone goods that could hurt the economy. Such an outcome would be bearish for the euro. Therefore, market participants might remain cautious about taking big positions in the euro. Meanwhile, the dollar held firm after data in the previous session revealed unexpected strength in the labor market. The sector added 147,000 jobs in June, beating forecasts of 111,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, which was below the estimated 4.3%. The positive report eased pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs. However, tariff uncertainty has hurt sentiment as the market watches the July 9 deadline. Higher tariffs might escalate trade tensions, further hurting the dollar. EUR/USD key events today Market participants do not expect any key economic releases today. A holiday in the US will likely keep trading thin. EUR/USD technical price analysis: Bulls and bears battle for control at the 30-SMA On the technical side, the EUR/USD price is rebounding after a sharp decline that punctured the 30-SMA support line. The move came after the RSI made a bearish divergence, indicating fading bullish momentum. Bulls weakened when the price reached the 1.1800 resistance level. As a result, bears made a big-bodied candle that punctured the 30-SMA. However, it was not enough to keep the price below. Bulls are still struggling to push the price back up to retest the 1.1800 resistance level. If it holds firm again, the price will likely drop back below the SMA. Such a move would allow EUR/USD to target the 1.1600 support level. On the other hand, if the price breaks above the 1.1800 resistance, it will form a higher high, confirming a continuation of the bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/04/eur-usd-price-analysis-us-tariff-deadline-sparks-uncertainty/
2025-07-04 10:03
The AUD/USD outlook suggests a growing likelihood of more RBA rate cuts this year. The US economy added 147,000 jobs in June, compared to the forecast of 111,000. Investors remain uncertain over trade deals as the tariff deadline looms. The AUD/USD outlook suggests a growing likelihood of more RBA rate cuts this year than previously anticipated, which is weighing on the Australian dollar. At the same time, the dollar gained momentum after a better-than-expected US monthly jobs report. A Reuters poll revealed that economists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower borrowing costs a third time next week. The RBA started its easing cycle late but is gaining momentum. Inflation in Australia has eased significantly, and the economy is slowing down. Therefore, policymakers have every reason to cut interest rates. As a result, financial markets are expecting a total of five rate cuts this year, compared to the previous forecast of three. Elsewhere, the dollar gained on Thursday after the US released an upbeat jobs report. The economy added 147,000 jobs in June, compared to the forecast of 111,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate came in at 4.1%, well below the forecast of 4.3%. The report eased pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs, boosting the dollar. Meanwhile, investors remain uncertain over trade deals as the tariff deadline looms. Higher tariffs might rekindle concerns about a US recession. AUD/USD key events today Market participants do not expect any key releases from Australia or the US. Therefore, the pair might extend Thursday’s move. AUD/USD technical outlook: Bears set sights on the 0.6500 support On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has broken below the 30-SMA after pausing near the 0.6590 key resistance. The break indicates a bearish shift in sentiment. At the same time, the RSI has broken below 50, indicating stronger bearish momentum. Initially, bulls had a strong lead, and the price was making higher highs and lows. Moreover, it respected the 30-SMA as support. However, bulls weakened after the price reached a new high near the 0.6590 level. The RSI formed a bearish divergence, showing fading momentum. As a result, bears gained enough strength to puncture the 30-SMA. However, to confirm a reversal, the price must drop further below the SMA and start making lower highs and lows. In such a case, the price would likely reach the 0.6500 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/04/aud-usd-outlook-mounting-rba-cut-odds-pressure-aussie/
2025-07-03 10:29
The GBP/USD outlook suggests growing concerns about the UK’s fiscal health. The UK government made a U-turn on welfare reforms. Data in the previous session revealed that the US private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June. The GBP/USD outlook suggests growing concerns about the UK’s fiscal health, which have weighed on the pound. At the same time, market participants are worried that the government might replace the current finance minister. However, dollar weakness allowed the currency to recover on Thursday. British bonds collapsed on Wednesday, dragging the pound lower. The move came after the government made a U-turn on welfare reforms, which had previously been part of the current budget. The move put a lot of pressure on the finance minister, Rachel Reeves. Moreover, it stoked worries about a likely replacement that would create uncertainty. However, the pound regained its footing on Thursday as the dollar weakened ahead of the nonfarm payrolls report. Data in the previous session revealed that the private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June. Meanwhile, estimates had shown an addition of 99,000 jobs. The downbeat report increased worries about a slowdown in the labor market. As a result, the chances of a July Fed rate cut rose from 20% to 25%. If the nonfarm payrolls are also poor, rate cut expectations will increase further, pushing the dollar lower. GBP/USD key events today Average Hourly Earnings m/m Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Rate ISM Services PMI GBP/USD technical outlook: Bears pause for breath at the 1.3601 level On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken below the 30-SMA, indicating a shift in sentiment. The move followed a bearish divergence in the RSI, indicating weakness in the previous rally. Although bulls broke above the 1.3750 resistance, they failed to sustain a move higher. As a result, bears took charge by sending it below the SMA. However, the sharp decline paused at the 1.3601 key support and resistance level. As a result, the price has pulled back and is aiming for the 30-SMA. If the SMA holds firm, GBP/USD might drop below the 1.3601 support level. Such a move would form a lower low, confirming a new downtrend. Moreover, it would pave the way for bears to reach the 1.3400 support level. On the other hand, if the SMA gives way, the price will likely retest the 1.3750 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/03/gbp-usd-outlook-ticking-down-amid-uk-fiscal-concerns-nfp/
2025-07-03 09:05
The USD/JPY forecast shows a rebound as the dollar gains on trade optimism. The US economy lost 33,000 private jobs in June. Economists expect 120,000 new US jobs, a slowdown from the previous month. The USD/JPY forecast shows a rebound as the dollar gains on trade optimism. However, downbeat employment figures in the previous session led to an increase in Fed rate cut expectations. Market participants are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report. The dollar strengthened on Thursday after news of a trade deal between the US and Vietnam. The news raised hopes of more deals before the July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs. The progress in trade talks has been slow, and there are concerns that tariffs will increase again soon. Therefore, any new deal boosts market sentiment. However, the dollar remains under pressure after data in the previous session revealed weak private employment. The economy lost 33,000 private jobs in June. Meanwhile, economists had expected 99,000 new jobs. The report raised concerns about the state of the labor market. At the same time, it increased the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in July. All eyes are now on the nonfarm payrolls. Economists expect 120,000 new jobs, a slowdown from the previous month. Moreover, unemployment might increase from 4.2% to 4.3%. Softer-than-expected figures will weigh on the dollar by adding pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs. USD/JPY key events today US average hourly earnings m/m US nonfarm employment change US unemployment rate US ISM services PMI USD/JPY technical forecast: Price retests trendline after recent break On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken below its bullish trendline to make a lower low. The move has strengthened the bearish bias. However, the price has pulled back to retest the recently broken trendline and the 30-SMA. However, the price remains below the SMA, with the RSI under 50, indicating that bears are still in the lead. However, this might change. The current resistance zone must hold firm to allow the price to bounce lower and confirm the breakout. If this happens, the USD/JPY pair will likely drop to retest the 142.55 support level. On the other hand, if bulls are stronger, the price will likely break above the resistance zone. Still, to confirm a new bullish move, the price would need to break above the 145.00 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/03/usd-jpy-forecast-dollar-rebounds-after-us-vietnam-trade-deal/
2025-07-02 10:44
The USD/CAD price analysis shows stronger bullish sentiment as the dollar recovers. The JOLTS report revealed that job openings in the US rose to 7.77 million. Economists expect slower US job growth in June and for the unemployment rate to jump from 4.2% to 4.3%. The USD/CAD price analysis shows stronger bullish sentiment as the dollar recovers on signs of strength in the US labor market. However, market participants are still awaiting the crucial monthly employment report for more clues on the outlook for Fed rate cuts. Data on Tuesday revealed that demand for labor in the US remains resilient. Economists had expected job vacancies to drop. However, the JOLTS report revealed that job openings rose to 7.77 million. The surprise figure eased worries about the state of the labor market amid the recent slowdown. Trump’s tariffs have had a negative impact on the economy, which has piled pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs. Economists expect slower job growth in June and for the unemployment rate to jump from 4.2% to 4.3%. A softer-than-expected report will increase rate cut expectations, weighing on the dollar. Moreover, Powell was more dovish in his recent speeches, saying the Fed would cut rates if inflation does not spike. He also failed to rule out the possibility of a rate cut at the next meeting. Meanwhile, experts like Goldman Sachs believe the central bank could deliver three rate cuts this year. Therefore, the downside potential for USD/CAD remains. USD/CAD key events today ADP Non-Farm Employment Change USD/CAD technical price analysis: Bulls challenge the downtrend at the 30-SMA On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has pulled back to retest the 30-SMA after making a new low in the downtrend. It trades slightly below the SMA, with the RSI under 50, suggesting bears are still in the lead. The price briefly broke below the 1.3625 support level to make a lower low. However, it pulled back and is now challenging the 30-SMA. A break above the SMA line will signal a bullish sentiment shift. However, for bulls to take charge, they must also break above the 1.3700 key level and start making higher highs and lows. On the other hand, if bears remain in the lead, the price will eventually bounce lower. The next target is at the 1.3550 support level. A break below this level would solidify the bearish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/02/usd-cad-price-analysis-us-job-vacancies-lift-dollar/
