2024-03-12 10:12

British wages minus bonuses grew much slower than expected. Investors expect a bigger 74bps of cuts by the BoE this year. Investors are preparing to receive the US CPI report showing the state of consumer inflation. This Tuesday, the GBP/USD price analysis takes a bearish turn as soft UK labor market data fuels BoE rate cut bets. Meanwhile, the dollar held steady ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, impacting the Fed’s rate cut decision. Notably, data on Tuesday revealed that British wages minus bonuses grew much slower than expected in the three months to January. At the same time, the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased. This report raised hopes that the Bank of England will start cutting rates this year. As a result, the pound slipped, pulling back sharply from recent highs. The recent rally in the pound came as traders gained confidence that the Fed would cut rates ahead of the BoE. Markets believe the BoE will be among the last major banks to cut rates. As a result, the pound has strengthened due to the divergence in policy outlooks. However, after the jobs data, investors expect a bigger 74bps of cuts by the BoE this year. This increase from 67bps before the data brings it closer to the Fed’s 75bps of cuts. This means that the pound is losing some of its edge. At the same time, investors are preparing to receive the US CPI report showing the state of consumer inflation. A higher-than-expected figure could lower Fed rate cut expectations. Meanwhile, a decline in inflation might raise rate-cut bets. GBP/USD key events today US Core CPI m/m US CPI m/m US CPI y/y GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bears challenge uptrend at the 30-SMA support On the charts, the pound has fallen to the 30-SMA after failing to trade above the 1.2850 resistance level. Meanwhile, the RSI has broken below 50, showing a shift in sentiment to bearish. With stronger bearish momentum, the price will likely soon break below the 30-SMA to retest the 1.2750 support level. However, the price must break below 1.2750 to confirm a bearish reversal and make lower highs and lows. Still, the bullish trend will continue if the price fails to break below the 30-SMA or the 1.2750. The bulls might make a new high at the 1.2900 key psychological level if they regain momentum. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/12/gbp-usd-price-analysis-boe-cut-odds-rise-after-weak-uk-data/

2024-03-12 08:43

Economists expect a monthly increase of 0.3% in US consumer inflation. Data on Friday revealed a softer US labor market. Markets expect the first ECB rate cut in June. The EUR/USD outlook is mildly bullish on Tuesday morning, setting a positive tone ahead of the highly anticipated US inflation report. Adding fuel to the euro’s momentum, Peter Kazimir, Chief of Slovakia’s Central Bank, said the ECB should hold off on rate cuts until they have enough economic data. The US inflation report will give more clues on when the Fed might start cutting interest rates. Economists expect a monthly increase of 0.3% in US consumer inflation. However, the focus will be whether the report will beat or miss forecasts. A higher-than-expected reading could mean more delays on Fed rate cuts. Consequently, the dollar would rise, pushing EUR/USD lower. Meanwhile, a lower-than-expected reading would increase rate-cut bets, pressuring the dollar and boosting EUR/USD. Currently, traders are more convinced that the Fed will cut rates in June. This confidence came after Powell’s dovish testimony. Notably, he said there was progress on inflation, making a rate cut more likely. Additionally, data on Friday revealed a softer labor market, with the unemployment rate higher than expected. This will allow the Fed to start lowering interest rates in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, inflation is declining in the Eurozone, and the ECB is gaining confidence in the progress. As a result, markets expect the first cut in June. On Monday, Peter Kazimir noted that the ECB had done a lot to lower inflation. However, he emphasised the need for patience before cutting rates. EUR/USD key events today US Core CPI m/m US CPI m/m US CPI y/y EUR/USD technical outlook: Bulls stalled by 1.0950 On the technical side, the bias for EUR/USD is bullish as the price trades above the 30-SMA, and the RSI is above 50 in bullish territory. At the same time, the price is trading in a bullish channel. It bounces higher each time it hits the channel support. However, the bullish move has paused after reaching the channel resistance and the 1.0950 key level. If this resistance zone holds firm, the price will likely fall to retest the channel support before the uptrend continues. However, the price will continue to rise if it breaks above 1.0950. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/12/eur-usd-outlook-stable-above-1-09-as-markets-await-us-cpi/

2024-03-11 14:23

The bias remains bullish despite temporary retreats. The US inflation should move the markets tomorrow. Failing to stay above the upper median line signaled exhausted buyers. The GBP/USD price turned to the downside after reaching a high of 1.2893 on Friday. The pair is trading at 1.2820 at the time of writing. The pair is correcting gains after a massive bull run. Fundamentally, the US reported mixed data in the last trading session. The NFP came in at 275K in February, versus 198K expected and above 229K in the last reporting period. However, the unemployment rate jumped from 3.7% to 3.9%, while average hourly earnings rose by 0.1%, less than the estimated growth of 0.2%. Today, the technicals could move the price. Meanwhile, the fundamentals should bring high action again tomorrow. The United Kingdom claimant count change is expected at 20.3K, above 14.1K in the previous reporting period. The unemployment rate should remain at 3.8%, while the average hourly earnings indicator may announce a growth of 5.7%. Still, the US inflation data publication represents the most important event of the current week. The CPI m/m may announce a 0.4% growth in February versus a 0.3% growth in January. CPI y/y could remain at 3.1%, while Core CPI may report a 0.3% growth. Higher inflation could boost the greenback. Technically, the GBP/USD price jumped above the ascending pitchfork’s upper median line (uml) but failed to stay above this dynamic resistance, signaling exhausted buyers. The pair tried to retest this upside obstacle, and now it could approach the 1.2800 former resistance that turned into support. The weekly pivot point of 1.2780 is also seen as a potential downside target. Failing to take out the upper median line (uml) may result in a correction towards the median line (ml), which is a critical downside obstacle. The bias remains bullish as long as it stays above it. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/11/gbp-usd-price-corrects-gains-after-mixed-us-nfp-data/

2024-03-11 09:46

Canada’s jobs grew more than expected in February. The US unemployment rate surged to 3.9% compared to expectations of 3.7%. Oil fell on Friday and ended last week down as investors worried about demand in China. The USD/CAD outlook reveals a slight bearish tone as markets juxtapose Canada’s upbeat employment report with the mixed signals from the US job market. Yet, amidst this comparison, the pair finds support from softer oil prices, contributing to the weakening of the Canadian dollar. On Friday, both the US and Canada released employment reports. In Canada, jobs grew more than expected in February, showing a robust labor market. As a result, the Bank of Canada has more reason to delay rate cuts. Meanwhile, the US released a mixed report, showing weakness in the labor market. Employment increased, but the unemployment rate surged to 3.9% compared to expectations of 3.7%. Therefore, there is more evidence that demand in the economy is weakening, paving the way for rate cuts starting in June. Markets expect the first BoC cut in June, just like the Fed. However, unlike the Fed, which is gaining confidence that inflation is declining, the BoC needs more convincing. Consequently, the Canadian dollar strengthened against the US dollar. This sets the stage for a downtrend in the pair. However, the recent decline in oil prices capped gains in Canada’s currency. Oil fell on Friday and ended last week down as investors worried about demand in China. China is the second largest consumer of oil. Therefore, poor demand in the country hurts oil prices. USD/CAD key events today There won’t be any major reports from the US or Canada today. Consequently, investors will keep digesting Friday’s employment reports. USD/CAD technical outlook: Price retests channel support after breakout On the charts, USD/CAD has pulled back to retest its recently broken channel support. This move came after the price had made new lows below the 1.3450 key support level. To fully confirm the channel breakout, the price must make a lower low after retesting the channel support as resistance. Therefore, if the channel support line holds firm, the price will bounce lower for a lower low. Moreover, bears will get a chance to target the 1.3375 support level. However, if the price goes back into the bullish channel and above the 30-SMA, it will confirm a false breakout. Consequently, the price would rise to retest the 1.3600 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/11/usd-cad-outlook-markets-assess-canadas-upbeat-jobs-report/

2024-03-11 08:43

Japan’s conditions align for the Bank of Japan to start hiking interest rates. Policymakers expect significant pay increases in Japan. The likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June rose above 70%. The USD/JPY forecast reveals a bearish sentiment on Monday as markets gain confidence that the BoJ might reverse its policy this month. As a result, the yen is gaining against the dollar. At the same time, there’s more confidence that the Fed will cut rates in June, weakening the dollar. Notably, conditions in Japan align for the Bank of Japan to start hiking interest rates. First, the economy is faring much better than expected. Moreover, it avoided a recession in the fourth quarter. Second, policymakers expect significant pay increases when wage negotiations conclude on Wednesday. Pay increases put money in consumer pockets, driving spending and inflation. Consequently, there is an increasing chance the BoJ will hike on 19th March. On the other hand, the dollar weakened on Friday after the US employment report revealed cracks in the labor market. Although employment in the US rose in February, the unemployment rate beat forecasts, implying weaker demand. Consequently, the likelihood of a rate cut in June rose above 70%. As the BoJ prepares to hike interest rates, the Fed gains more confidence that inflation is on a downtrend. Therefore, rates will likely start declining in the US. Again, the BoJ is playing on the opposite side of the field. This policy divergence was the major cause of the yen’s recent weakness. However, the current policy divergence might allow the yen to recover most of its lost value. USD/JPY key events today It might be a slow day for the pair, as the calendar lacks major economic events that might cause volatility. USD/JPY technical forecast: Price poised for 100% retracement of previous trend On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has hit its first and second targets. Therefore, the price might soon retrace 100% of the previous uptrend. The price is currently on a steep downtrend, breaking below major support levels without pause. The decline is so strong that the price has not pulled back even once to retest the 30-SMA resistance. Furthermore, the RSI has entered the oversold region, indicating solid bearish momentum. Therefore, the price might soon reach the 146.01 key support level, representing 100% retracement of the previous trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/11/usd-jpy-forecast-yen-bullish-on-boj-policy-reversal-prospects/

2024-03-09 10:50

There is a higher chance the Fed will cut rates by the end of the year. There is a divergence in policy outlooks between the Fed and the BoE. The dollar weakened after a mixed employment report. The GBP/USD weekly forecast leans bullish as market participants expect the Fed to cut rates much earlier than the Bank of England. Ups and downs of GBP/USD The pair had a bullish week where the dollar weakened after Powell’s testimony to Congress. On Wednesday and Thursday, Powell restated the Fed’s commitment to lower inflation to its 2% target. However, he also said there was a high chance the Fed would cut rates by the end of the year. Notably, there is a divergence in policy outlooks between the Fed and the BoE. While Fed rate cuts are coming closer, the BoE might be the last major central bank to cut rates. As a result, the pound made new highs in the week. Additionally, the dollar weakened after a mixed employment report showing a big employment increase and a higher-than-expected unemployment rate. Next week’s key events for GBP/USD High-impact data from the UK next week will include data on employment, manufacturing and economic growth. Meanwhile, investors will focus on inflation and sales data from the US. The UK economy has performed better than expected in 2024. Therefore, if the economy shows strength next week, it could propel the pound to new heights. Meanwhile, the US dollar weakened last week amid rising rate cut expectations. The inflation report will also have a big impact on the outlook for rate cuts. Consequently, a figure above or below estimates might cause a lot of volatility. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls break above 1.2800 resistance On the technical side, GBP/USD is bullish and has made a new high above the 1.2800 key resistance level. After taking control from bears and reversing the trend, bulls pushed the price to the 1.2800 key level, where it paused. Moreover, there were signs of weaker bullish momentum. Consequently, bears got a chance to challenge the bullish trend. The price broke below the 22-SMA, and the RSI dipped below 50. However, bears could not go below the 1.2500 key support level. At this point, the bulls regained momentum, taking back control and breaking above 1.2800. There is a high chance this bullish move will continue next week. Therefore, GBP/USD might retest the 1.3002 key psychological level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/09/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-fed-set-to-slash-rates-ahead-of-boe/