2024-01-22 08:06

Data on Friday revealed a significant drop in UK retail sales. Investors still believe the BoE will be slower to cut rates than the ECB and the Fed. Data released late last week indicated that US economic activity remains robust. The GBP/USD forecast hints at a modest bullish trend after a slight rise on Monday, momentarily disrupting the downward momentum from Friday. On Friday, the pound collapsed due to a notable plunge in retail sales, marking the most substantial decline in three years. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- Despite this, the currency finds support in persistent inflation. Moreover, investors believe the Bank of England won’t reduce rates as quickly as the ECB or the Fed. At the moment, market indicators suggest a roughly 50% chance that the BoE will cut rates in May. Furthermore, the pound has experienced the smallest decline among G10 currencies, while the dollar strengthened broadly throughout the year. On Friday, data from the UK revealed a surprising decrease in December’s consumer spending. Consequently, it increased recession risks and paused the currency’s recent advances. The Office for National Statistics attributed a 3.2% contraction in retail sales volumes between December and November to earlier-than-usual Christmas shopping, particularly for food. Meanwhile, data released late last week indicated that US economic activity remains robust even with interest rates at their highest levels in decades. As a result, there was a revision in market expectations. There are fewer bets on Fed rate cuts starting in March. Traders have shifted their bets, predicting that rate cuts will likely start in May. GBP/USD key events today Investors do not expect any key events today. Therefore, the pair might move sideways as markets absorb last week’s releases. GBP/USD technical forecast: Range-bound between 1.2600 and 1.2800 On the technical side, the GBP/USD price remains trapped between the 1.2800 resistance and the 1.2600 support. Each time the price gets near the 1.2800 resistance, bears take control. Meanwhile, when it gets near the 1.2600, bulls take over. Notably, the most recent bullish takeover came when the pair touched the 1.2600 support level. At this point, the price made a bullish engulfing candle, engulfing six previous candles. This indicated a surge in bullish momentum. Moreover, the takeover was confirmed when the price broke above the 30-SMA. Bulls are now targeting the 1.2800 range resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/22/gbp-usd-forecast-greenbacks-correction-helping-sterling/

2024-01-21 06:23

The dollar strengthened amid upbeat data from the US. The yen weakened as investors lost hope for a BoJ pivot to interest rate hikes. Inflation in Japan slowed for the second month. The USD/JPY weekly forecast reveals a bullish outlook as the resilient US economy propels the dollar to new heights. On the flip side, the yen faces headwinds as the Bank of Japan leans towards a dovish stance. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- Ups and downs of USD/JPY USD/JPY had a very bullish week as the dollar strengthened amid upbeat data from the US. Meanwhile, the yen weakened as investors lost hope for a BoJ pivot to interest rate hikes. Notably, data on retail sales and the labor market pointed to strength in the US economy. Retail sales came in higher than expected, while initial jobless claims fell significantly. Meanwhile, in Japan, inflation slowed for the second month, solidifying expectations that the BoJ will keep its dovish stance. Next week’s key events for USD/JPY Next week, traders will pay attention to the BoJ policy meeting in Japan. Meanwhile, the US will release data on GDP and core durable goods orders. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its ultra-loose monetary policy. The focus will be on any hints Governor Kazuo Ueda provides about the central bank’s plan to raise short-term interest rates from negative territory. Market expectations point towards a potential rate increase in March or April as policymakers work towards sustaining inflation at the BOJ’s 2% target. On the other hand, data from the US will show the current state of the economy as investors speculate on the timing of Fed rate cuts. USD/JPY weekly technical forecast: Bullish bias strengthens with break above 0.618 fib The bullish bias for USD/JPY has strengthened as the price has broken above the key 0.618 fib level. As a result, the price now sits far above the 22-SMA, with the RSI just below the overbought region. Bulls have been in the lead since the price touched and reversed from the 140.05 support level. After breaching the 0.618 fib level, the steep, bullish move is targeting the next resistance at 152.00. However, before getting there, the price will likely pause or pull back to retest the 22-SMA. However, the bullish move will continue if the price stays above the SMA and the RSI above 50. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/21/usd-jpy-weekly-forecast-dovish-boj-upbeat-us-data/

2024-01-21 06:21

Inflation in Canada came in higher than expected, dashing hopes for early rate cuts by the BoC. The US economy remained resilient, with robust retail sales. The Canadian dollar strengthened as oil prices surged. The USD/CAD weekly forecast paints a slightly bearish picture, with the Canadian dollar riding the wave amid surging oil prices. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The pair had a bullish week. However, it closed well below its highs. During the week, investors got to assess data from the US and Canada. Inflation in Canada came in higher than expected, dashing hopes for early rate cuts by the BoC. Meanwhile, the US economy remained resilient, with robust retail sales and a significant drop in initial jobless claims. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- However, the main driver for the pair towards the end of the week was the rally in oil prices. The Canadian dollar strengthened with oil, leading to a lower close for the pair. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD The consensus among economists is that the Bank of Canada will maintain its overnight key interest rate at 5.00% on January 24 and March. Additionally, most economists expect the Bank of Canada to delay any key interest rate cuts until at least June. Meanwhile, in the US, investors still struggle to predict when the Fed will start rate cuts. The US economy is still strong, and GDP and core durable goods data next week will shed more light on the economy. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Pullback eyes 22-SMA support On the technical side, USD/CAD is retreating after meeting a strong resistance zone. However, the bias is bullish because buyers managed to push the price above the 22-SMA. They took over when the downtrend stopped at the 1.3201 support level. However, the new bullish move has paused at a resistance zone comprising the 0.5 fib level and the 1.3501 resistance level. Consequently, there is a pullback that might reach the 22-SMA support in the coming week. This will allow sellers to test the new bullish trend. If buyers are ready to push the price beyond the 1.3501 level, then the price will respect the 22-SMA support. However, if this was a deep retracement in the downtrend, then bears might resume the downtrend next week. In this case, the price would break below the 22-SMA to retest the 1.3201 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/21/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-surging-oil-supports-canadian-dollar/

2024-01-19 10:27

Oil prices increased, driven by geopolitical tensions and disruptions in US oil output. The US dollar extended its recent gains due to positive US labor market data. Economists anticipate a 0.1% dip in Canada’s sales. A bearish tone emerged in the USD/CAD price analysis on Friday, propelled by surging oil prices amid geopolitical tensions and US output disruptions. The Canadian dollar recovered from a five-week low just a day earlier, riding the wave of oil’s resurgence. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive, remarked, “The Canadian dollar needed a boost from the oil market, and finally, oil saw an uptick.” Oil rose after the International Energy Agency forecasted a robust global oil demand. Moreover, there were disruptions in US crude output caused by cold winter weather. Additionally, oil got support from a substantial weekly draw in crude inventories. On Thursday, the IEA increased its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024. However, its higher projection still falls below OPEC’s expectations. Investors are awaiting the November Canadian retail sales data release for Friday. This represents the final major economic report before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision next week. Economists anticipate a 0.1% dip in sales. Adam Button noted, “Friday’s retail sales report will likely highlight the contrast between Canadian and US consumers, influencing the currency more than anything.” Meanwhile, the US dollar remained strong following positive US labor market data, which lowered expectations of a Fed rate cut. USD/CAD key events today Preliminary US consumer sentiment report USD/CAD technical price analysis: Price likely to revisit 0.382 fib On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is pulling back to challenge the 30-SMA support. The price met strong resistance at the 1.3500 key level. At first, it led to forming a bearish engulfing candle, showing bears were ready to take over. Still, the bulls had some strength to push the price above 1.3500, though it was quickly rejected above this level. Bears made yet another engulfing candle, leading to the decline towards the 30-SMA. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- At the same time, the RSI is quickly dropping to 50, a pivotal level. There is a high chance bears will keep up the decline to break below the 30-SMA. Afterward, the price will likely retest the support zone comprising the 0.382 fib level and the 1.3400 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/19/usd-cad-price-analysis-soaring-oil-pours-water-on-the-rally/

2024-01-19 10:24

XAU/USD could resume its growth if it stays above the sliding line (sl). A new higher high activates further growth. The US and the Canadian figures could change the sentiment. The gold price is trading at $2,028 at the time of writing. The metal seems determined to extend its growth as the US dollar looks exhausted. The USD’s depreciation should help the XAU/USD to hit new highs. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The greenback showed overbought signs in the short term even if the US reported positive economic data in the last days. Yesterday, the Unemployment Claims, Building Permits, and Housing Starts came in better than expected, while the retail sales data beat expectations on Tuesday. Today, the price of gold also targets new highs after the United Kingdom Retail Sales reported a 3.2% drop versus the 0.5% drop estimated and after the 1.4% growth in the previous reporting period. Still, I believe only the US and Canadian economic data should have a big impact today and could change the sentiment. The Canadian Retail Sales indicator may report a 0.0% growth, while the Core Retail Sales could announce a 0.1% growth. Furthermore, the US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment could jump from 69.7 to 69.8 points, while Existing Home Sales is expected at 3.83M, above 3.82M in the previous reporting period. Technically, the XAU/USD reached the former high of $2,029, and it is trying to take it out. The upside pressure is high after jumping and stabilizing above the S1 (2,020) and most importantly, beyond the ascending pitchfork’s inside sliding line (sl). –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The bias is bullish as long as it stays above this broken dynamic resistance. Still, only a new higher high, jumping and closing above $2,032 confirms an upside continuation. The weekly pivot point of $2,041 and the median line (ml) are upside targets. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/19/gold-price-challenging-2029-resistance-focus-on-us-data/

2024-01-19 08:54

Japan’s core inflation marked the second consecutive month of a slowing trend. The Bank of Japan will likely maintain ultra-low interest rates at next week’s meeting. The dollar geared up for its second consecutive weekly gain. Friday unveils a bullish USD/JPY outlook as the yen softens amid weaker inflation figures. Despite Japan’s core inflation holding above the 2% central bank target in December, it marked the second consecutive month of a slowing trend. This further supports the expectation that the Bank of Japan will maintain its extensive monetary stimulus. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the data increases the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will maintain ultra-low interest rates at next week’s meeting. Rabobank strategist Jane Foley remarked, “The market’s realization that rate hikes won’t be likely for the BOJ in the coming months and the reassessment of Fed rate cuts is already evident in the upward movement of the dollar/yen.” However, analysts suggest that there is still steady service price increases. Moreover, there is a growing likelihood of substantial wage hikes. Therefore, these will likely sustain market expectations of a shift to rate hikes for the BoJ. Meanwhile, the dollar geared up for its second consecutive weekly gain. This is due to signs of US economic resilience and a cautious stance on rate cuts. Traders reduced expectations of fast and big rate cuts in the US. Notably, the dollar index surged by 0.9% for the week. This made the yen the most significant loser, down 5% for the year. Data and a deadly earthquake in Japan have eroded confidence in the likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising rates. USD/JPY key events today US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment USD/JPY technical outlook: Bullish strength wanes with bearish divergence above 148.25 On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken above the 148.25 key resistance level and is on its way to making a new high. However, the RSI is above 70, indicating an overbought market. Therefore, further upside movement might be limited. Moreover, the RSI already shows signs that bulls are weaker, above 148.25, as it has made a slight bearish divergence. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- If, indeed, bulls are weaker, then the price will struggle to reach the next resistance level at 150.02. At the same time, it might pull back to retest the 30-SMA before getting to the 150.02 resistance. Still, the bullish trend will continue if the price stays above the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/19/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-weakens-as-japans-inflation-figures-ease/