2024-01-27 16:58
Business activity data showed expansion in the US manufacturing and services sectors. US GDP data came in higher than expected. Australia will release data on consumer inflation next week. The AUD/USD weekly forecast is bearish as the resilient US economy has shifted the outlook, prompting a decrease in expectations for Fed rate cuts. Ups and downs of AUD/USD Aussie had a bearish week as the dollar strengthened due to upbeat data from the US. Last week, the US released business activity data showing expansion in the manufacturing and services sectors. Moreover, GDP data came in higher than expected, showing resilience in the US economy. Additionally, this indicated that the Fed did not need to cut rates any time soon. As a result, the dollar strengthened, pushing AUD/USD lower. Meanwhile, the core PCE price index came in as expected. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Australia will release data on consumer inflation next week. Meanwhile, the US will release figures on manufacturing and employment. Additionally, traders will get to review the Fed’s meeting minutes. This might give clues on what will come next for interest rates in the US. The last report on inflation in Australia showed a sharp decline to a two-year low. Consequently, investors became convinced that the RBA was done raising rates. Meanwhile, the crucial nonfarm payrolls report will show the state of the US labor market. A positive report might cause a drop in rate-cut bets and a rally in the dollar. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Solid support stalls bearish momentum On the charts, AUD/USD has fallen sharply after touching the 0.6850 resistance level. As a result, the bias has gone from bullish to bearish, with the price now trading below the 22-SMA. At the same time, the RSI has gone from trading near the overbought level to trading closer to the oversold region. However, the new bearish momentum has paused at a solid support zone. The price is struggling at the 0.5 fib retracement level and the 0.6550 key support level. Price action shows indecision at the support zone with small-bodied candles and big wicks. This indecision might lead to a pullback to the 22-SMA or a break below the support zone. Given the strong bearish bias, there is a bigger chance the price will break through the zone. If this happens, bears will be free to push the price lower to the 0.6351 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/27/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-us-economy-shows-resilience/
2024-01-26 13:02
The median line could attract the USD/CAD pair. The US economic data should be decisive today. Taking out the median line activates more declines. The USD/CAD price is trading in the red at 1.3450 at the time of writing. The pair seems determined to hit new lows as the US dollar weakens. The price jumped higher after the BOC as the Canadian central bank developed a dovish tone. On the other hand, the US manufacturing and services sectors confirmed expansion. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The Canadian dollar retook the lead yesterday, even though the US reported mixed data while the ECB maintained its monetary policy. The US Advance GDP, New Home Sales, and Core Durable Goods Orders came in better than expected. At the same time, unemployment claims, the Advance GDP Price Index, durable goods orders, goods trade balance, and preliminary wholesale inventories are disappointing. Today, the US economic figures should move the markets again. The Core PCE Price Index may announce a 0.2% growth versus the 0.1% growth in the previous reporting period. Pending Home Sales is expected to report a 2.1% growth, exceeding the 0.0% growth during the last reporting period. Furthermore, the Personal Spending and Personal Income data will also be released. Positive economic data should help the USD to dominate the currency market. On the contrary, the Greenback could lose significant ground versus its rivals. From the technical point of view, the USD/CAD pair escaped from a significant up-channel pattern, indicating a potential corrective phase. The price tried to come back above the broken uptrend line but failed to stabilize beyond this dynamic obstacle, confirming exhausted buyers. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- The upper median line (uml) retest confirmed I’ve drawn a descending pitchfork. So, the price could be attracted by the median line (ml), which acts like a magnet. Taking out this dynamic support opens the door for a more significant downside movement. Still, after the current sell-off, we cannot exclude a temporary rebound as the rate challenges a demand zone. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/26/usd-cad-price-targeting-new-lows-core-pce-price-index-eyed/
2024-01-26 11:16
The pound recovered ahead of crucial US inflation data later in the day. The US economy beat forecasts in the fourth quarter, growing at 3.3%. The pound remains steady against the dollar amid signs of a recovery in the UK economy. On Friday, the GBP/USD price analysis hinted at a modest bullish tone as the pound staged a recovery ahead of pivotal US inflation data. The spotlight is on the US personal consumption expenditures data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, Thursday’s data indicated that the US economy beat forecasts in the fourth quarter, growing at 3.3%. Consequently, there was a rally in the dollar and a decline in the pound. The robust fourth-quarter economic performance, driven by strong consumer spending, eased recession concerns. The full-year growth stood at 2.5%. Moreover, the advance report on fourth-quarter gross domestic product revealed a further easing of inflation pressures. Despite the impressive year-end results, doubts about the Federal Reserve starting to cut rates in March persist. However, March remains a possibility due to the favorable inflation data within the GDP report. The pound remains steady against the dollar, supported by robust British business activity data earlier in the week. Furthermore, Goldman Sachs analysts noted that the UK’s growth momentum is improving, fueled by the consistent service sector expansion, setting the UK apart from the rest of Europe. In recent weeks, expectations of the ECB and the Fed to start rate cuts before the Bank of England has bolstered the pound. The BoE is scheduled for a meeting next Thursday. GBP/USD key events today The US Core PCE Price Index report GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bulls reemerge at channel support On the charts, the pound is trading in a bullish channel and is bouncing higher after respecting the channel support. The bullish channel is shallow because the price is still trapped in a range between the 1.2800 resistance and the 1.2600 support. For this reason, the price does not respect the 30-SMA as support or resistance. Similarly, the RSI keeps crossing the pivotal 50 mark, showing bears and bulls are battling for control. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- Still, within the channel, the price seems to climb and retest the channel resistance. Such a move would also allow the bulls to retest the 1.2800 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/26/gbp-usd-price-analysis-recovering-to-1-2750-ahead-of-us-pce/
2024-01-26 09:26
Traders increased expectations of an ECB rate cut in April. The dollar remained stable on Friday as traders assessed the impact of unexpectedly strong economic growth data. The dollar has seen a 2% increase this year due to declining Fed rate cut expectations. On Friday, the EUR/USD outlook was bearish as traders increased their bets for an April rate cut, spurred by the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Despite maintaining interest rates at a record high of 4%, the ECB hinted at forthcoming discussions about rate cuts. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Policymakers, speaking after the meeting, indicated openness to a shift in stance at the next meeting. This paves the way for an early interest rate cut if upcoming data confirms inflation has eased. At the same time, traders have raised bets on a rate cut in April due to the recent remarks by policymakers. The ECB’s stance has boosted rate cut expectations. Moreover, it supports a bearish outlook for the euro. On the other hand, the US dollar remained stable on Friday. Traders assessed the impact of unexpectedly strong economic growth data on the Fed’s rate trajectory. Additionally, they expect a key inflation gauge for further insights. Official data on the advance GDP estimate revealed a 3.3% annual growth rate in the last quarter, beating the forecast of 2%. Furthermore, the report indicated a further easing of inflation pressures. The dollar has seen a 2% increase year-to-date, reflecting a decrease in rate cut expectations compared to the end of last year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 50% probability of a rate cut in March, down from 75.6% one month ago. EUR/USD key events today US Core PCE Price Index m/m EUR/USD technical outlook: Bears break free from consolidation On the technical side, EUR/USD has broken out of its consolidation area, retested the range support as resistance, and is now continuing its decline. The bearish bias has strengthened as the price has swung far below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI has dipped further into bearish territory, nearing the oversold region. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- Bears are currently targeting the nearest support at 1.0800. This level might trigger a pause or pullback to retest the 30-SMA before the downtrend continues. However, the price might breach 1.0800 without pausing if bears are strong enough. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/26/eur-usd-outlook-traders-bet-on-ecb-rate-cut-in-april/
2024-01-25 11:22
The rebound could be only temporary. Coming back below the pivot point indicates more declines. The ECB and the US figures should move the rate today. The USD/JPY price turned upside after reaching yesterday’s low of 146.65. The pair has climbed as high as 147.87 today, failing to test the 148.00 psychological level. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Yesterday, the greenback received a helping hand from the upbeat US economic data. The price recovered as the United States Flash Manufacturing PMI reached 50.3 points versus the expected 47.6 points, confirming expansion. Meanwhile, the Flash Services PMI jumped from 51.4 points to 52.9 points, announcing further expansion. Today, the European Central Bank should drive the markets. The Main Refinancing Rate should remain at 4.50%, but the Monetary Policy Statement and the ECB Press Conference could change the sentiment. Furthermore, the US will release key economic data, so the fundamentals could be decisive. The Advance GDP may announce a 2.0% growth, less compared to the 4.9% growth in the previous reporting period. Furthermore, the Unemployment Claims, Advance GDP Price Index, Durable Goods Orders, Core Durable Goods Orders, and New Home Sales data will also be released. Tomorrow, the Japanese Tokyo Core CPI, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, and the US Core PCE Price Index should move the price. Technically, the USD/JPY price failed to stay below the 147.00 psychological level. The pair has tried to retest the 148.00 psychological level and the median line (ml). After the last sell-off, the rebound is widely anticipated. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- The rate could only retest the key level before going down again. Coming back and stabilizing below the weekly pivot point of 147.26 indicates more declines towards the S1 (145.73). https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/25/usd-jpy-price-exhausted-below-148-00-eyes-on-us-gdp/
2024-01-25 09:38
Investors eagerly awaited the US GDP report. The ECB will likely maintain steady rates. Markets currently indicate a 43% probability of a Fed cut in March, a notable decrease from 88% a month ago. Thursday’s EUR/USD outlook leaned modestly bullish, with the pair showcasing strength ahead of a pivotal European Central Bank policy meeting. Additionally, there was anticipation for the US GDP report, which might give clues on the potential direction of US interest rates. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The ECB will likely maintain steady rates. However, investors will pay attention to the strength of officials’ resistance against expectations of rate cuts. Market participants expect 130 basis points of cuts from the ECB throughout the year. The ECB concluded its fastest rate-hiking cycle in September. However, policymakers have said that discussions about rate cuts are premature. Meanwhile, markets expect the Fed to maintain its current stance in the US next week. However, the focus will be on Chair Jerome Powell’s comments. Markets currently indicate a 43% probability of a cut in March, a notable decrease from 88% a month ago. At the same time, traders are pricing in 134 basis points of cuts this year, down from 160 bps at the close of 2023. The dollar has risen approximately 2% this month as traders significantly reduce expectations for early and substantial rate cuts from the Fed. This shift follows hawkish remarks from policymakers. Moreover, recent data has highlighted the resilience of the US economy. Notably, data on Wednesday revealed an uptick in business activity in the US, accompanied by a decrease in a measure of inflation. Prices companies charge for their products fell to the lowest level in over 3 1/2 years. EUR/USD key events today ECB monetary policy meeting US Gross Domestic Product US initial jobless claims EUR/USD technical outlook: Sideways near 1.0900 The pair is moving sideways on the charts, caught near the 1.0900 key level. The price is chopping through the 30-SMA, showing a ranging market. However, the larger scale shows that the trend is bearish as the price makes lower lows and highs. Moreover, the price is making consistent impulse and corrective moves. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- At the moment, EUR/USD is in a corrective move. Given the bearish bias on the larger scale, the next move could be a bearish impulsive leg. Consequently, the price might soon drop to the 1.0800 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/25/eur-usd-outlook-euro-recovers-as-ecb-policy-meeting-looms/
