2023-12-15 09:26

The BOE affirmed its commitment to keeping British interest rates elevated. Bailey said there was still a big distance to cover in addressing inflation concerns. There was a slowdown in the UK wage growth and a 0.3% decline in gross domestic product in October. The Bank of England (BOE) stands firm in its hawkish stance, even as the prospect of US rate cuts gains traction, making for a bullish GBP/USD price analysis. On Thursday, the BOE affirmed its commitment to keeping British interest rates elevated for an extended period. In contrast, the Fed has signaled rate cuts in 2024. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- Governor Andrew Bailey declared a 6-3 vote to hold rates at a 15-year high of 5.25%. Additionally, Bailey said there was still a big distance to cover in addressing inflation concerns. Therefore, he went against the expectations of investors who had increasingly bet on rate cuts. Unlike the Federal Reserve’s indication of potential rate cuts in the United States, the BOE did not discuss cutting rates. On the contrary, it expressed concerns that Britain’s inflation might be more persistent. Meanwhile, data this week revealed a slowdown in wage growth and a 0.3% decline in gross domestic product in October. It raises concerns about a potential recession ahead of the expected 2024 national election. Still, the BOE remained steadfast. As a result, investors revised their expectations for the first rate cut from March to May. ING economist James Smith noted the BOE’s reluctance to support rate cut expectations. This is a divergence from the more proactive stance of the Federal Reserve. GBP/USD key events today UK Flash Manufacturing PMI UK Flash Services PMI US Empire State Manufacturing Index US Flash Manufacturing PMI US Flash Services PMI GBP/USD technical price analysis: Potential pullback as bullish momentum peaks On the technical side, GBP/USD has broken above the 1.2700 key resistance level in a strong bullish surge. As a result, the price left the 30-SMA far below, showing massive bullish strength. Similarly, the RSI has risen to the overbought region. However, this might also lead to a pullback as the bullish move is overextended. On the fib tool, the price has extended to 1.27 in one move without pauses. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, there is resistance slightly above at the 1.2800 key level. Therefore, a short pause would allow the price to retest the 1.2700 level. Furthermore, it would allow the SMA to catch up with the price. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/15/gbp-usd-price-analysis-bulls-dominate-after-hawkish-boe/

2023-12-15 08:25

The European Central Bank adhered to its hawkish stance. Powell signaled on Wednesday that the era of tightening monetary policy is likely over. Markets are currently pricing in a 75% likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed in March. Friday’s EUR/USD outlook is bullish as the currency rallied, propelled by the European Central Bank’s unwavering commitment to a hawkish stance. In a surprising twist on Thursday, the ECB deviated from anticipated rate cuts. Moreover, policymakers restated their commitment to fighting inflation, contributing to the strengthening of the currency. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, investor expectations remain unaltered despite this stance, with rate cuts still priced in for next year. Pepperstone’s Weston suggested that the ECB is better positioned to cut rates given low growth and a rapid decline in inflation. Meanwhile, there is more clarity on the timing of potential US interest rate cuts. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled on Wednesday that the era of tightening monetary policy is likely over. Additionally, discussions about cuts are now coming “into view.” Consequently, there was a decline in the dollar, with the dollar index hovering close to the four-month low on Thursday. The dollar has fallen by nearly 2% and is heading for its most substantial weekly drop since July. Furthermore, the anticipated Fed cuts for 2024 have been brought forward, with a growing number of investors now expecting cuts to start around March. Markets are currently pricing in a 75% likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed in March. EUR/USD key events today German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Services PMI US Empire State Manufacturing Index US Flash Manufacturing PMI US Flash Services PMI EUR/USD technical outlook: Bulls encounter historical reversal zone The bullish bias for EUR/USD is strong, as the price has risen sharply to the 1.1000 key resistance level. Consequently, it trades far above the 30-SMA, showing a steep bullish move. Moreover, the RSI is in the overbought region, an extreme for bullish momentum. The bulls were strong enough to break above multiple resistance levels without pause. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, they are currently facing a level that has led to a previous reversal in the trend. Therefore, the price might start falling from the 1.1000 key level to retest lower support levels. The pullback might drop to the 0.382 Fib retracement level before the uptrend continues. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/15/eur-usd-outlook-euro-gains-as-ecb-maintains-hawkish-stance/

2023-12-14 11:55

XAU/USD is strongly bullish as the DXY crashed after the FOMC. Taking out the resistance levels may announce further growth towards the median line. The BOE and ECB should bring high volatility today. The gold price turned upside after pausing at yesterday’s low of $1,973. The precious metal has climbed as high as $2,040 today. Now, it has retreated a little and is trading at 2,035 at the time of writing. XAU/USD edged higher as the USD depreciated versus its rivals after the FOMC. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- The US dollar plummeted after the Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, and FOMC Economic Projections were published. However, the FOMC Press Conference was decisive, punishing the greenback. The FED announced a potential 75 bps cut in 2024. Today, the fundamentals should move the rate again. As expected, the SNB left the monetary policy unchanged. The SNB Policy Rate remained at 1.75%. Later, the Bank of England is expected to keep the Official Bank Rate at 5.25%, but the Monetary Policy Summary and MPC Official Bank Rate Votes could have an impact. In addition, the ECB should maintain the monetary policy. Only the ECB Press Conference could change the sentiment. Also, don’t forget that the US will release the retail sales data. The Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales indicators could announce a 0.1% drop, while Unemployment Claims could be reported at 219K in the last week. Technically, the XAU/USD rallied after breaking the Falling Wedge pattern. The price action revealed exhausted sellers. Now, it was almost at the former high of $2,041. This stands as a static resistance. It remains to see how it reacts around it, as false breakouts may result in a new sell-off in the short term. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- The weekly pivot point of $2,049 also represents an important upside obstacle. I’ve drawn an ascending pitchfork where the median line (ml) is seen as a major target if the rate continues to grow. The XAU/USD validates more gains by taking out the immediate resistance levels. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/14/gold-price-rallies-above-2000-after-dovish-fomc/

2023-12-14 09:38

The European Central Bank is poised to hold historically high borrowing costs. Investor expectations suggest a possible ECB rate cut in the spring. The Fed recently signaled lower borrowing costs in the US. On Thursday, the gains in the EUR/USD outlook persisted, supported by the Federal Reserve’s dovish comments and in anticipation of the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. Looking ahead, the ECB is expected to uphold historically high borrowing costs, reinforcing the positive sentiment surrounding the currency pair. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, President Christine Lagarde faces pressure to defend or abandon her guidance that rates will remain unchanged for the next few quarters. Meanwhile, investor expectations suggest a possible rate cut in the spring. Consequently, such a move would position the ECB as the first major central bank to reverse its rate hike course. Still, Lagarde will likely resist rate-cut speculations, especially after a year and a half and ten consecutive hikes to lower inflation. On the other hand, yesterday’s Fed meeting signaled impending lower borrowing costs, indicating up to three cuts. This makes any ECB resistance more difficult. Following the Fed’s dovish commentary, the euro strengthened over 1% against the dollar, and rate cut expectations surged. Currently, markets are pricing in 155 basis points of ECB easing in the coming year, including two moves by April. This pricing aligns with expectations for the Fed for two moves by May 1, with 155 basis points over 2024. Furthermore, updated economic projections are likely to strengthen expectations of an ECB pivot, as they are expected to reveal lower inflation and growth, particularly for the next year. EUR/USD key events today US retail sales US initial jobless claims ECB policy meeting EUR/USD technical outlook: Pullback looms as buyers face strong resistance The bias for EUR/USD on the charts is bullish. This shift in sentiment happened recently when the downtrend found strong support at the 1.0750 key level. Consequently, bears weakened as the price started moving sideways before it broke above the 30-SMA resistance. After pulling back to retest the SMA, the price shot up with a strong bullish candle, breaching the 1.0851 key level. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- Still, the recent bullish move is a retracement of the previous bearish trend. Moreover, the price has retraced to the key 0.618 fib level. The bullish move might pause at this level for a pullback to retest 1.0851 before the bullish move continues. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/14/eur-usd-outlook-bulls-emerge-after-dovish-fed-eyes-on-ecb/

2023-12-14 08:46

In November, Australia’s employment exceeded expectations for the second consecutive month. The Reserve Bank of Australia may have concluded its tightening cycle. Following the Federal Reserve’s latest economic projections, the dollar hit a fresh four-month low. Thursday saw a bullish AUD/USD forecast as the Australian dollar catapulted to an almost five-month peak, fueled by robust employment data. However, the excitement in the air is met with a twist. Futures markets currently indicate a prevailing sentiment: the Reserve Bank of Australia may have concluded its tightening cycle. Moreover, expectations now include more than 50 basis points of easing for 2024. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- In November, Australia’s employment exceeded expectations for the second consecutive month. Notably, there was an increase of 61,500 jobs compared to a revised 42,700 in October, surpassing the anticipated rise of around 11,000. However, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, the highest since last May. More individuals actively sought employment, contributing to signs of a loosening labor market. Meanwhile, the participation rate reached a record high of 67.2%. Last week, the RBA maintained interest rates at a 12-year high of 4.35%. Furthermore, to curb inflation, the RBA has undertaken an aggressive tightening campaign, raising interest rates by 425 basis points—the most substantial in the bank’s history. Meanwhile, the dollar hit a fresh four-month low following the Federal Reserve’s latest economic projections. The Fed signaled the conclusion of the interest-rate hike cycle. Moreover, policymakers expect lower borrowing costs in 2024. AUD/USD key events today US core retail sales US unemployment claims AUD/USD technical forecast: Bulls break free from consolidation AUD/USD bulls have broken out of consolidation with a sharp move on the charts. The previous bullish move paused when bullish momentum weakened at the 0.6650 key resistance level. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- Consequently, bears pushed the price below the 30-SMA, leading to a bearish sentiment shift. However, this new direction was short-lived as the price failed to trade below the 0.6551 key support level. As a result, the price entered a period of consolidation, with bears and bulls battling for control. Eventually, bulls took control with a break above the range area resistance and the 0.6650 key level. At the same time, the RSI rose to the overbought level, indicating strong bullish momentum. The next hurdle for the pair is at the 0.6750 key level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/14/aud-usd-forecast-aussie-hits-five-month-high-on-strong-jobs/

2023-12-13 13:23

The USD/JPY price could drop anytime if it stays below the downtrend line. The FOMC should bring high volatility. A hawkish speech should lift the greenback. The USD/JPY price ended its minor retreat and is now fighting hard to post a meaningful recovery. The pair is trading at 145.81 at the time of writing, far above yesterday’s low of 144.72. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- Fundamentally, the greenback seems determined to take full control as the US reported higher inflation in November. The Consumer Price Index registered a 0.1% growth versus the 0.0% growth estimated, while Core CPI announced a 0.3% growth, matching expectations. Today, the Japanese Tankan Manufacturing Index and Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index came in better than expected, but the JPY remains sluggish in the short term. Later, the US will release the PPI, which is expected to report a 0.0% growth after the 0.5% drop in the previous reporting period, and the Core PPI indicator. Still, the week’s most important event is the FOMC rate decision. The Fed is expected to keep the Federal Funds Rate at 5.50%. Still, the FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Statement, and FOMC Press Conference represent high-impact events. A hawkish speech on higher inflation in the US could boost the greenback. Technically, the currency pair rebounded within an up-channel pattern. It has failed to reach the downtrend line. Now it has escaped from this chart formation. The price failed to stay above the 38.2% (146.31) retracement level, signaling exhausted buyers. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- Now, it has turned to the upside after registering only a false breakdown with great separation below the 145.00 psychological level. Still, the price could drop again if it stays below the downtrend line. Only taking out this dynamic resistance may announce a larger growth. On the other hand, a broader downside movement could be triggered by a new lower low. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/13/usd-jpy-price-stalls-below-146-0-focus-shifts-on-fomc/