2023-12-04 08:39
Powell affirmed that US monetary policy was slowing the economy as anticipated. There is a 60% likelihood of a Fed rate cut by March. The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably maintain its key interest rate at 4.35%. Monday’s AUD/USD forecast has a subtle bearish tone as the dollar tries to recover after declining due to cautious remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. On Friday, Powell affirmed that US monetary policy was slowing the economy as anticipated, with the benchmark overnight interest rate residing “well into restrictive territory.” Consequently, markets adjusted, indicating a 60% likelihood of a rate cut by the March meeting, up from 21% just over a week ago. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, highlighted that US data remains the “primary driver” for the G10 currencies. Moreover, non-farm payrolls are the “most important risk event” for the week. The eagerly anticipated November jobs report is scheduled for release on Friday. According to Rodda, the performance of dollar pairs may receive ongoing support based on US economic data. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia will probably maintain its key interest rate at 4.35% tomorrow. Furthermore, a Reuters poll suggests a shift in expectations for a rate cut. Currently, markets do not expect rate cuts until the fourth quarter of the next year due to a robust housing market. Rates in Australia are at a 12-year high. Still, Australian home prices have rebounded from 2022 losses since hitting a low point in January. Moreover, projections indicate an 8% price increase this year and an additional 5% next year. AUD/USD key events today Investors do not expect high-impact news releases from Australia or the US today. Consequently, it might be a silent session for the pair. AUD/USD technical forecast: Potential pullback as uptrend shows fatigue Aussie has made a new high on the charts after bouncing off the 30-SMA and the 0.6600 support level. Moreover, the price is above the SMA, and the RSI is above 50, supporting the bullish bias. However, despite the new high, bullish momentum is fading. A closer look at the RSI shows a bearish divergence, a sign that bulls are exhausted. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- Exhaustion could lead to a pullback or reversal in the trend. Already, price action at the most recent high shows bulls weakening and bears gaining strength. The price has made a doji candle and a bearish engulfing candle, indicating an imminent decline. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/04/aud-usd-forecast-markets-reflect-on-powells-cautious-remarks/
2023-12-02 17:46
US economic data supported the view that the Fed would soon start cutting rates. Canada reported a higher-than-expected employment growth. The BoC will likely maintain its main policy rate at 5.0% next week. The USD/CAD weekly forecast predicts a bearish trajectory, with recent US data signaling a potential conclusion to Fed rate hikes. This narrative suggests a probable extension of dollar weakness. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Ups and downs of USD/CAD The loonie had a bearish week characterized by dollar weakness and Canadian dollar strength. The dollar fell last week as economic data supported the view that the Fed would soon start cutting rates. Notably, unemployment claims in the US rose last week, showing less demand in the labor market. At the same time, the core PCE price index showed a decline in inflation, supporting a Fed pivot. Moreover, the dollar declined as investors digested Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commitment to approach interest rates “carefully.” Meanwhile, employment data from Canada showed a higher-than-expected figure that supported the Canadian dollar on Friday. Still, the BOC will likely leave rates unchanged next week. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week, the Bank of Canada will hold its monetary policy meeting, where investors expect a hold on interest rates. In a recent speech, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem suggested that with excess demand gone and anticipated weak growth, interest rates might be sufficiently restrictive. This has led to the widespread conclusion that the central bank has ceased hiking rates. The BoC will maintain its main policy rate at 5.0% until at least the end of March, aligning with expectations for the US Federal Reserve. Another major report next week is the US nonfarm payrolls. The last employment report showed easing in the labor market and supported expectations for Fed rate cuts. Another such report could lead to a more dovish Fed. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Bullish channel cracks under pressure On the charts, USD/CAD has broken out of its bullish channel, signaling a change in direction. Bulls were stronger than bears in the channel and kept pushing the price back above the 22-SMA. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- At the same time, the RSI mainly traded above 50, supporting bullish momentum. However, this has all changed with a breakout at the channel support. Bears are now in control, and the RSI has dipped into bearish territory. Moreover, the price has pushed far below the 22-SMA, supporting bears. Next week, the price will likely fall to the 1.3400 support level. However, it might pull back to retest the recently broken 1.3650 key level before continuing lower. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/02/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-us-inflation-data-weakens-dollar/
2023-12-02 17:42
Australia witnessed a greater-than-expected easing of inflation in October. The dollar was weak as data supported expectations for Fed rate cuts. On Tuesday, the RBA will likely maintain its key interest rate at 4.35%. The AUD/USD weekly forecast hints at a somewhat bearish outlook. The Aussie takes a dip as Australia’s easing inflation sets the stage for a more dovish central bank. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Ups and downs of AUD/USD The Aussie ended the week in the red, a decline after downbeat inflation data. Notably, Australia witnessed a greater-than-expected easing of inflation in October. Concurrently, core inflation also experienced a slight downturn. This outcome strengthens the argument for the central bank to maintain interest rates in the upcoming week. Meanwhile, the dollar was weak as data supported expectations for Fed rate cuts. US unemployment claims rose, indicating a softening labor market. Other data showed a decline in US inflation, supporting the call for Fed rate cuts. Investors also listened to a speech from Powell, where he said the central bank would approach interest rates carefully. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will likely maintain its key interest rate at 4.35%, as per a Reuters poll. Meanwhile, a rate cut will probably not come until the fourth quarter of next year. Ben Picton, a senior strategist at Rabobank, anticipates no change from the RBA in the upcoming week. However, he suggests they will uphold a hawkish stance, emphasizing the likelihood of rate hikes. Moreover, there will be a report on Australia’s GDP that will show whether the economy grew. Finally, investors will focus on the US employment report that will likely impact the Fed’s policy outlook. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls face tough resistance at 0.618 Fibonacci On the technical side, AUD/USD has a bullish bias. The price is climbing higher after breaking above and retesting the 0.6600 key level. Moreover, bulls have confirmed a bullish trend as the price has respected the 22-SMA support and made a higher high and low. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- At the same time, the RSI shows solid bullish momentum near the overbought region. Price action also supports the bullish bias, as bulls make much larger candles than bears. However, bulls face strong resistance as the price has retraced to the 0.618 key fib level. Adding to the resistance is the 0.6700 key level. The bullish trend will continue if bulls break above this resistance zone next week. Moreover, bulls would have a clear path to the next resistance level at 0.6900. However, if the resistance holds firm, the price will likely reverse to 22-SMA or lower. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/02/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-aussie-dips-amid-downbeat-cpi/
2023-12-01 14:08
The current sideways movement is seen as a bullish formation. The upper median line (uml) stands as an important upside target. The US data should bring high action today. The USD/JPY price is trading at 148.02 at the time of writing and looks overbought in the short term. After the recent rally, the pair may correct lower amid profit-taking. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- The price edged higher yesterday as the Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, and Unemployment Claims came in better than expected, while Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income, and Personal Spending aligned with expectations. Today, the price retreated a little as the Japanese Unemployment Rate came in at 2.5% versus 2.6% expected, Final Manufacturing PMI was reported higher at 48.3 points versus 48.1 points forecasted, while Capital Spending matched expectations. Later, the US data should move the market. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to jump from 46.7 points to 47.9 points, Final Manufacturing PMI could remain steady at 49.4 points, ISM Manufacturing Prices could jump to 46.1 points, while Construction Spending may announce a 0.4% growth again. In addition, the Fed Chair Powell’s speeches and the US Wards Total Vehicle Sales should have an impact. Technically, the USD/JPY price moves sideways, above the weekly S1 of 147.70, trying to accumulate more bullish energy before jumping higher. The current range could represent an accumulation, a bullish continuation pattern. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Still, only making a new higher high activates more gains ahead. The descending pitchfork’s upper median line represents the next major upside target. This stands as a dynamic resistance. A larger growth could be activated only after taking out this upside obstacle. I believe the upside continuation could be invalidated only if the rate makes a new lower low, if it drops and closes below the S1. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/01/usd-jpy-price-accumulating-bullish-energy-ahead-of-us-ism/
2023-12-01 10:30
Data revealed moderate growth in US consumer spending for October. Investors are awaiting comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later on Friday. Data revealed that Eurozone inflation experienced a more significant-than-expected decline. The EUR/USD price analysis unfolds as the dollar dips, allowing the euro to climb slightly after absorbing substantial overnight losses. Traders evaluated data revealing a drop in Eurozone inflation. Consequently, they are buzzing with expectations that interest rates may have reached their end. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, the dollar index had its weakest monthly performance in a year in November despite a 0.6% overnight surge. Thursday’s data revealed moderate growth in US consumer spending for October and the smallest annual increase in inflation in over 2-1/2 years. The eagerly anticipated PCE price index rose 3% in October compared to the previous year. It slowed from a three-month streak of 3.4% values. The value is still above the Fed’s 2% target. However, it is a new low that could please the Fed and reduce pressure for additional hikes. Investors will now shift their focus to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later on Friday. Traders will scrutinize every word for insights into the rate outlook. Carol Kong, a currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, anticipates Powell will reaffirm the possibility of further tightening. Moreover, he will likely temper expectations of rate cuts. In Europe, Thursday’s data revealed that Eurozone inflation experienced a more significant-than-expected decline for the third consecutive month in November. As a result, there are expectations of early spring rate cuts. The data resulted in a 0.7% decline in the euro on Thursday. EUR/USD key events today The US ISM manufacturing PMI A speech from Fed Chair Powell EUR/USD technical price analysis: Bears take over after bearish RSI divergence The bearish RSI divergence on the 4-hour chart played out, leading to a shift in sentiment for EUR/USD. The bulls were no longer strong enough to continue the uptrend. As a result, bears emerged with bigger candles, showing strong momentum. It was clear the trend had reversed when the price broke below the support trendline and the 30-SMA. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- At the same time, the RSI fell below 50, confirming that bears were stronger than bulls. Currently, the price is heading for the next support level at 1.0851. The final step for bears to confirm a downtrend will be a series of lower lows and highs. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/01/eur-usd-price-analysis-euro-struggling-after-overnight-losses/
2023-12-01 09:34
US consumer spending moderately increased in October. The US PCE price index in October showed a slower 3% rise from a year ago. The Canadian economy contracted at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the third quarter. Heading into Friday, the USD/CAD outlook is bearish, riding the waves of continued dollar weakness. This bearish move came after Thursday’s data unveiled a weakening trend in US inflation for October. US consumer spending moderately increased in October. Meanwhile, the annual inflation rise was the smallest in over 2 1/2 years. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Notably, the eagerly anticipated personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index in October showed a 3% rise from a year ago. It was a slowdown from a three-month streak of 3.4% readings. However, it is still above the Fed’s 2% target. Federal Reserve policymakers indicated on Thursday that the US central bank’s interest rate hikes are likely concluded. Still, they kept the option open for further monetary policy tightening if progress on inflation falters. Market indicators show a 97% likelihood of the Fed maintaining rates in its December meeting. Moreover, there’s a 46% chance of a rate cut in March next year, compared to a 27% chance the previous week. Surprisingly, the Canadian economy shrank at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the third quarter, avoiding a recession. However, the data revealed growth weakening before the upcoming interest-rate decision. The economy sidestepped a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarter-on-quarter contractions. USD/CAD key events today Canada’s employment change Canada’s unemployment rate US ISM manufacturing PMI Fed Chair Powell’s speech USD/CAD technical outlook: RSI reflects weaker bearish momentum Price action and indicators on the 4-hour chart point to a bearish bias for USD/CAD. Notably, the price has made lower highs and lows, indicating a downtrend. Initially, bears paused at the 1.3550 support level, where the price was oversold. It led to a pullback to the 30-SMA, where bulls challenged the downtrend. However, bearish momentum was still strong, as the price made a bearish engulfing candle from the SMA. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Consequently, the price fell and broke below the 1.3550 support. Still, a closer look at the RSI shows weaker bearish momentum. Although bears made a new low, the RSI made a higher low, indicating a divergence. However, bears will only lose control if the price breaks above the SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/01/usd-cad-outlook-bearish-amid-optimistic-canadian-gdp/
