2023-11-28 13:09
Investors anticipate a swift transition to US rate cuts in 2024. Sterling has surged nearly 4% against the dollar this month. Sunak disclosed £29.5 billion ($36.76 billion) in private-sector investments in Britain on Monday. On Tuesday, the GBP/USD outlook shone with bullish optimism, remaining above the key mark of 1.2600 as the Greenback stayed weaker. It’s on the brink of achieving its most remarkable monthly surge against the dollar in the past year. Notably, investors are abandoning the dollar, anticipating a quick transition to Fed rate cuts in 2024. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- In a potentially beneficial development for the pound’s long-term outlook, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak unveiled a series of foreign investments in Britain ahead of a business leaders’ gathering. The pound has risen nearly 4% against the dollar this month. Moreover, it is on course for its first monthly gain since June. Meanwhile, money market traders predict that the Bank of England will maintain higher interest rates for longer than the Fed in 2024. Consequently, this outlook has contributed to the pound’s recent rally. Just under two weeks ago, traders had factored in approximately 70 basis points in UK rate cuts for next year. However, after recent data releases, including business activity and inflation, this expectation has adjusted to around 60 bps. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, in a Monday interview, remarked that achieving the central bank’s 2% inflation target will be challenging. Furthermore, he attributed the recent decline in inflation to the correction of last year’s surge in energy costs. Concurrently, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will host global executives outside London this week to restore the country as Europe’s leading foreign direct investment (FDI) destination. GBP/USD key events today The US Conference Board consumer confidence report GBP/USD technical outlook: Bulls find their feet above the 1.2600 key level Bulls are charging ahead on the charts, making new highs above the 30-SMA. The bullish bias is strong, and the price is currently bouncing higher after breaking above the 1.2600 resistance level. Therefore, bulls will likely soon exceed the 1.2651 level. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- However, after a big swing away from the 30-SMA, the price usually pauses or retraces the upward move. Therefore, we could see bears return for a pullback. Moreover, bullish momentum is near an extreme level, with the RSI nearly overbought. Still, a pullback would only be a short pause in the uptrend unless the price breaks below the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/11/28/gbp-usd-outlook-pound-poised-for-a-remarkable-monthly-close/
2023-11-28 12:36
The Federal Reserve might start interest rate cuts by the first half of next year. The euro has gained around 3.4%, marking its most significant monthly increase in a year. Data revealed a more substantial than expected drop in US new home sales in October. Tuesday witnessed a bullish EUR/USD price analysis as the US dollar tumbled to a three-month low against major currencies, setting the stage for its most significant monthly plunge in a year. Notably, this decline came amid expectations that the Fed might start interest rate cuts by the first half of the upcoming year. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the increased likelihood of earlier rate cuts by the Fed in 2024, compared to the European Central Bank, is putting pressure on the dollar today. Meanwhile, market pricing indicates a 23% chance that the Fed could begin easing monetary policy as early as March. At the same time, investors are closely monitoring various events and data this week. Over the month, the euro has gained around 3.4%, marking its most significant monthly increase in a year. On Monday, the dollar sustained losses following data revealing a more substantial than expected drop in US new home sales. The value dropped by 5.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units. Meanwhile, September’s sales were revised lower to 719,000 units from the previously reported 759,000 units. Therefore, there is little potential for a turnaround in the dollar. However, later this week, Q3 GDP numbers will come out. If the US economy can demonstrate sustained growth, we could witness a reversal and some dollar strength to end the month. EUR/USD key events today US CB consumer confidence for November EUR/USD technical price analysis: Euro bulls face a tough test at 1.0950 Euro bulls are still struggling at the 1.0950 resistance level. Meanwhile, the RSI still shows weakness in the uptrend that might lead to a reversal. If bulls fail to make a higher high by breaking above 1.0950, the trend will likely pause to consolidate or reverse to the downside. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Bears can take control if the price goes below 30-SMA. However, to reverse the trend, they would need to start making lower lows by breaking below the 1.0851 support level. Still, there is a chance the bulls will regain momentum. The price will likely take out the 1.1000 resistance in such a case. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/11/28/eur-usd-price-analysis-us-dollar-plunges-to-3-month-low/
2023-11-28 10:19
The bias remains bullish as the Dollar Index is bearish. A new higher high activates further growth. The US CB Consumer Confidence should be decisive. The EUR/USD price is trading in the green at 1.0948 at the time of writing. The pair is fighting hard to resume its rally as the US dollar remains bearish despite minor rebounds. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Yesterday, the greenback took a hit from the US New Home Sales economic indicator which came in at 679K versus 724K expected and compared to 719K in the previous reporting period. Today, the German Gfk Consumer Climate came in at -27.8 points versus -28.2 points expected and above -28.3 in the previous reporting period. Still, only the United States economic data could change the sentiment in the short term. The CB Consumer Confidence may drop from 102.6 to 101.0 points. This could be bad for the greenback. In addition, the Richmond Manufacturing Index is expected at 1 versus 3 points in the previous reporting period, HPI could report a 0.4% growth, while S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI may announce a 4.0% growth. The USD needs strong support from the US economy as poor data should weigh down the dollar. From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD price jumped higher after ending its corrective downside. However, it has failed to reach the median line (ml) that shows the buyers are exhausted. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Now, the pair has reached a supply zone near the 1.0965 former high. It remains to see how it reacts around this static resistance. A valid breakout (a new higher high) may announce further growth towards the median line (ml). On the contrary, false breakouts through the resistance level may trigger a reversal. Still, a significant drop could only trigger if the price falls below the lower median line (lml). https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/11/28/eur-usd-price-signals-buyers-exhaustion-near-1-0960/
2023-11-27 12:04
The bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the 150% line. A new higher high activates further growth. The US data could bring action on XAU/USD. The gold price rallied to a new higher high of $2,018. The precious metal has retreated a little and is trading at $2,014 at the time of writing. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- The greenback’s downside continuation helped the XAU/USD to extend its growth. The bias is bullish, so further gains are on the cards. Fundamentally, the yellow metal reached fresh highs as the US Flash Manufacturing PMI came in worse than expected on Friday, at 49.4 points versus 49.9 points expected, confirming contraction. Today, the US New Home Sales is expected to drop from 759K to 724K. Poor economic data should weaken the greenback and could help the XAU/USD to hit new highs. On the contrary, positive data could save the USD from the downside, while the price of gold may drop again. Also, ECB President Lagarde’s Speaks could have a significant impact. The US CB Consumer Confidence is seen as a high-impact event and may bring sharp movements tomorrow. The HPI and the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI data will be released as well. From the technical point of view, the XAU/USD rallied after coming back above the upper median line (UML) of the ascending pitchfork. The metal has ignored the 150% Fibonacci line, reaching the warning line (wl1). This represents a dynamic resistance, and the rate printed only a false breakout with great separation, signaling exhausted buyers. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Still, the bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the 150% Fibonacci line and the former high of $2,007. A small consolidation above these immediate support levels may announce an upside continuation. However, a new higher high may activate further growth. On the other hand, dropping below the short-term support levels could trigger a correction. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/11/27/gold-price-stalls-at-2018-eying-us-new-home-sales-data/
2023-11-27 09:48
A modest rise in services sector activity offset a contraction in manufacturing. The dollar is set for its weakest monthly performance in a year. Data confirmed a 0.1% contraction in Germany’s economy in the third quarter. The EUR/USD outlook paints a bullish picture at the start of a new week as the euro holds steady, building on the momentum from Friday’s surge amid a weakened dollar. The dollar’s decline followed a mixed PMI report, creating an optimistic landscape for the Euro against the USD. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Notably, S&P Global reported a modest rise in services sector activity, offsetting a contraction in manufacturing. However, the survey’s employment index dropped to 49.7 in the first contraction since June 2020, down from 51.3 in October. Consequently, the dollar was weak on Friday. Furthermore, the dollar is set for its weakest monthly performance in the year. It is due to growing expectations that the Fed is done with raising interest rates and may start cutting them next year. Separately, data on Friday confirmed a 0.1% contraction in Germany’s economy in the third quarter. Ruth Brand, president of the statistics office, noted, “The German economy started the second half of the year with a slight drop in performance.” Moreover, facing challenges like high energy costs and higher interest rates, Germany has been one of Europe’s weakest economies this year. Additionally, the Bundesbank’s monthly economic report predicted a likely contraction in the German economy in Q4. However, there might be a slight improvement early next year. Meanwhile, German business morale improved in November. EUR/USD key events today A new home sales report from the US A building permits report from the US EUR/USD technical outlook: Bearish divergence points to potential price drop On the technical side, the EUR/USD bulls are back in control after a false break below the 30-SMA. The price initially rose to the 1.0950 resistance level, where it paused, and bears resurfaced. Surprisingly, bears were strong enough to puncture the 30-SMA support. However, this downward momentum did not last as bears failed to sustain a move lower. Consequently, bulls returned and took back control by breaking above the 30-SMA. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Currently, the price is facing 1.0950 resistance again. Moreover, the RSI is showing weaker bullish momentum. The price will likely fall to 1.0851 if the bearish divergence plays out. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/11/27/eur-usd-outlook-euro-holds-firm-after-fridays-surge/
2023-11-27 08:19
British companies reported unexpected growth in November. The dollar is heading for a monthly loss of over 3%. Market pricing indicates a 23% chance that the Fed may cut rates as early as March next year. Monday’s GBP/USD forecast turned decidedly bullish, kicking off the week with optimism as the pound surged to a two-month high, building on the momentum from the previous week. This upward trajectory was fueled by a surprising surge in growth reported by British companies in November, breaking a three-month contraction streak. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- As such, Carol Kong, a currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, noted, “This indicates the resilience of the UK economy despite the very aggressive monetary policy tightening from the Bank of England. However, we still anticipate the UK economy weakening and going through a short-lived recession.” Moreover, the pound was set for a roughly 3.8% gain for the month, its most substantial monthly increase in a year. Meanwhile, the dollar index slipped by 0.12% to 103.31. It was heading for a monthly loss of over 3%, marking its worst performance in a year. CPI inflation rates across much of the G10 remain above central bank targets. Consequently, there is a strong incentive for policymakers to support the ‘higher for longer’ theme. Additionally, higher market rates will help in the battle against inflation. However, investors are looking beyond this policy and seem increasingly focused on speculating about the timing and pace of rate cuts next year. Market pricing indicates a 23% chance that the Fed may commence easing monetary policy as early as March next year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. GBP/USD key events today US building permits report US new home sales report GBP/USD technical forecast: Bulls charge ahead, RSI signals overbought levels The pound is bullish, trading well above the 30-SMA and the RSI overbought. Moreover, the price has made higher highs and lows while respecting the 30-SMA as support. It shows a well-developed trend that might continue higher. The price is currently above the 1.2600 level and might reach 1.2651. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- However, with the RSI overbought, we might see bulls pause for a breath. Consequently, the price might consolidate or pull back to retest the 30-SMA support. Still, the bullish trend has upside potential. Therefore, bulls will likely push beyond the 1.2651 level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-forecast-pound-extends-gains-to-a-two-month-high/
