2023-11-25 18:30
Core consumer price growth in Japan increased slightly in October. The BOJ might withdraw monetary stimulus soon due to persistent inflation. The dollar was generally weak as investors held on to the belief that the Fed was done hiking. The USD/JPY weekly forecast suggests a bearish inclination as Japan’s inflation surge signals a potential shift in the BOJ’s policy, setting the stage for the yen to regain strength. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Ups and downs of USD/JPY USD/JPY fell but closed the week nearly flat. The decline came as the yen strengthened after core consumer price growth in Japan increased slightly in October. Consequently, it strengthened expectations that the Bank of Japan might withdraw monetary stimulus soon due to persistent inflation. On Friday, Tatsuo Yamasaki, a former leading Japanese currency official, said he anticipates minimal yen weakening from the current 150 against the dollar. Additionally, he predicts a potential strengthening of the yen next year. Furthermore, he believes the Bank of Japan might abandon its negative interest rate policy in April. Meanwhile, the dollar was generally weak as investors held on to the belief that the Fed was done hiking. Next week’s key events for USD/JPY Important data next week will come from the US, including GDP and manufacturing PMI. These reports will give a clear picture of the economy amid high interest rates. The GDP report will show whether the economy grew or contracted. Meanwhile, the PMI report will show business activity in the manufacturing sector. Notably, recent data has shown that high interest rates implemented by the Federal Reserve have started cooling the economy. If this trend continues next week, investors will likely increase bets for Fed rate cuts. Consequently, the dollar will suffer, and the USD/JPY will continue to decline. USD/JPY weekly technical forecast: Bulls retreat, bears advance On the charts, the USD/JPY price has gone from bullish to bearish. The previous bullish bias stopped at the 151.75 resistance level. Although bulls tried twice to push above the resistance, they failed. As such, bears took control by breaking below the 22-SMA. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- At the same time, the RSI went below 50, signaling a shift in sentiment. Now that bears have momentum, the price will likely continue lower next week. At the moment, the price has pulled back to retest the SMA after finding support at the 148.02 level. There is a high chance the 22-SMA will hold firm as resistance, pushing the price lower. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-weekly-forecast-uptick-cpi-sparks-policy-debate/
2023-11-25 18:30
There was optimism that the Federal Reserve’s hiking cycle was done. Data revealed a larger-than-expected drop in Americans filing new jobless claims. Fed meeting minutes revealed a cautious stance toward monetary policy. The EUR/USD weekly forecast is shaped by a bullish trend, propelled by the weakening of the dollar amid optimism surrounding the Fed’s pause. Consequently, this has led traders to expect potential rate cuts. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Ups and downs of EUR/USD Although the EUR/USD ended higher for the week, it barely moved due to the US Thanksgiving holiday. However, the primary catalysts were the Fed minutes and data from the US. The dollar fell amid optimism that the Federal Reserve’s hiking cycle was done. Moreover, the economy remains strong enough to avoid a recession. Economic reports on jobless claims, durable goods, and consumer sentiment showed an easing but suggested the economy could stay robust enough for a soft landing. Meanwhile, the minutes from the Fed’s last meeting revealed a cautious stance toward monetary policy. Nevertheless, market participants are starting to prepare for rate cuts. Next week’s key event for EUR/USD Next week, crucial data from the US, including GDP and manufacturing PMI, will provide insight into the economy. Notably, the GDP report will reveal whether the economy expanded or contracted, while the PMI report will indicate manufacturing sector business activity. This week, there was an increase in bets for Fed rate cuts due to recent downbeat data from the US. Still, Fed minutes showed the Fed would remain resilient though cautious in its fight against inflation. Therefore, if data next week comes in lower than expected, there might be an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts. It would also result in more dollar depreciation. EUR/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls rally to 1.0950 resistance On the technical side, the EUR/USD price is bullish, and the price has risen to the 1.0950 resistance level. Further supporting the bullish bias is the RSI trades near the overbought region. Moreover, the bulls are finally making strong swings away from the 22-SMA. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- In the coming week, bulls might experience some resistance at the 1.0950, resulting in a pullback. However, given the bullish bias, the price will likely pause at the 22-SMA, which acts as support in the uptrend. Nevertheless, if bulls are strong enough, the price will break above 1.0950 without pulling back. This move would then allow bulls to retest the 1.1100 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-feds-pause-leads-dollar-down/
2023-11-24 09:47
There was an uptick in Japan’s core consumer price growth. The dollar has declined by 2.8% for the month, heading for its weakest monthly performance. Japan’s factory activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in November. The USD/JPY price analysis on Friday suggested a subtle bearish sentiment, with the yen gaining strength in response to an increase in Japan’s core consumer price growth. This upward trend further bolstered the anticipation that the Bank of Japan could potentially withdraw its monetary stimulus in the near future. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Notably, Japan’s core consumer price growth slightly increased in October, countering the previous month’s drop. Consequently, investors expect persistent inflation to push the Bank of Japan to scale back its monetary stimulus soon. At the same time, ING economists anticipate the BOJ to shift away from its dovish stance next year. The Japanese yen strengthened by 0.21% to 149.23 per dollar, gradually recovering from the near 33-year low of 151.92. Additionally, it has seen a 1.5% increase for the month. Furthermore, a business survey on Friday revealed that Japan’s factory activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in November. Japan’s economy remains fragile amid weak demand and inflation. Meanwhile, the dollar fell 0.058% to 103.71, remaining close to the two-and-a-half-month low of 103.17 earlier in the week. Moreover, the dollar has declined by 2.8% for the month, heading for its weakest monthly performance in a year. This decline was due to growing expectations that the Fed would conclude its interest rate hikes and start rate cuts next year. However, market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2024 have decreased. At the moment, futures indicate a 26% chance of a rate cut at the March 2024 policy meeting. It is down from a 33% chance the previous week. USD/JPY key events today The US S&P Global Services PMI (Nov) USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bulls struggle to sever ties with the 30-SMA On the technical side, the USD/JPY price trades between the 149.00 support and the 150.01 resistance level. This move comes after bulls took over by pushing the price above the 149.00 level and the 30-SMA. Moreover, the RSI has risen above 50 to support solid bullish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- However, the price is still pulling back to retest the SMA and is yet to make a big bullish swing. Therefore, to confirm the new bullish trend, bulls must detach from the 30-SMA and take out the 150.01 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-price-analysis-yen-gains-on-japans-inflation-uptick/
2023-11-24 09:38
The bias remains bullish despite minor retreats. False breakouts through the immediate resistance levels may announce a new sell-off. The US data should have a major impact today. The GBP/USD price retreated slightly after posting a new high of 1.2569 in the last session. The pair is trading at 1.2534 at the time of writing. The price has changed little in the short term as the US banks were closed in observance of Thanksgiving Day. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Fundamentally, the price stays higher as the United Kingdom reported positive data yesterday. The Flash Manufacturing PMI jumped from 44.8 to 46.7 points, above 45.0 points expected, while the Flash Services PMI was reported at 50.5, above 49.5 points expected, confirming expansion. Today, the Gfk Consumer Confidence came in at -24 points versus the forecasted -28 points. Later, the US economic figures should be decisive. The Flash Services PMI could drop from 50.6 points to 50.4 points, while Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to drop to 49.9 points from 50.0 points, indicating contraction again. Better than expected, US data should boost the greenback across the board. Also, the Canadian Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales should significantly impact the USD. Technically, the GBP/USD price failed to stay above the 1.2548 historical level and the ascending pitchfork’s median line (ml), signaling exhausted buyers. Still, the bias remains bullish, taking out the weekly R1 (1.2570), coming back above the median line, and making a new higher high may activate further growth. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- On the contrary, new false breakouts through the immediate resistance levels may announce a new sell-off. A bearish pattern could signal a strong correction toward the ascending pitchfork’s lower median line (LML). https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-price-overbought-near-1-2550-on-a-dull-day/
2023-11-24 09:27
Data hinted at a potential easing of the downturn in the Eurozone economy. The Eurozone economy will likely contract again in the fourth quarter. Data showed a greater-than-expected drop in Americans filing new jobless claims. Positive Eurozone PMI data on Friday helped the euro maintain its stability, infusing a sense of optimistic bullishness into the outlook for EUR/USD. On Thursday, data hinted at a potential easing of the downturn in the Eurozone economy. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- However, trading was subdued due to holidays in the US and Japan. Notably, preliminary surveys indicated that the recession in Germany might be less severe than anticipated. Consequently, it overshadowed poor figures for French business activity. Michael Brown, a strategist at TraderX, commented that while there’s a slight improvement, it only suggests that things are becoming slightly less bad. Moreover, the survey revealed that the Eurozone economy will likely contract again in the fourth quarter. Saxo Bank strategists noted, “Euro/dollar rose back above $1.09 but may face formidable resistance at $1.096.” Elsewhere, the markets barely reacted to the surprising victory of anti-EU far-right populist Geert Wilders in Wednesday’s Dutch parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, the dollar index decreased by 0.14%, the first decline since Monday. This decline followed data showing a greater-than-expected drop in Americans filing new jobless benefit claims last week. Adding to concerns for the Federal Reserve, a University of Michigan survey on Wednesday indicated that consumers this month anticipate higher inflation in both the near and long term. Consequently, market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2024 have dropped. Futures now indicate a 27% chance that the Fed will cut its target rate at the March 2024 policy meeting. EUR/USD key events today US S&P Global Services PMI EUR/USD technical outlook: Trapped between 30-SMA and 1.0900 level. On the technical side, the EUR/USD pair trades in a tight range between the 30-SMA and the 1.0900 critical level. Bulls and bears are fighting for control at this level. However, a closer look at price action before it got to the 30-SMA shows that bulls were in control. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- This is also clear in the RSI. Although it dipped below 50, it trades above, indicating solid bullish momentum. Therefore, bulls have a higher chance of pushing the price above the SMA to retest the 1.0950 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-outlook-euro-holds-ground-after-a-boost-from-pmi/
2023-11-23 15:33
The bias remains bullish despite the last retreat. The US data should be decisive tomorrow. Taking out the upper median line (uml) activates more declines. The gold price slipped lower after reaching today’s high of $1,998. The metal is trading at $1,993 at press time. The bias remains bullish despite minor corrections. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Gold lost altitude as the US dollar rebounded after the Canadian inflation data release and the FOMC Meeting minutes. Yesterday, Greenback received a helping hand from the Unemployment Claims and the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Today, the US banks are closed in observance of Thanksgiving Day, so the volatility could be low during the US session. Earlier, the UK Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 46.7 points above 45.0 points expected, while Flash Services PMI jumped to 50.5 points, confirming expansion again. Furthermore, the German and Eurozone manufacturing and services sectors remain in contraction territory. Still, despite high-impact data publication, the XAU/USD changed little in the short term. New Zealand will release the Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales data tonight. The economic figures should bring some action. Tomorrow, the US Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI represent high-impact events. In addition, the Canadian retail sales data could bring life to XAU/USD. As you can see on the hourly chart, the price found resistance at the weekly R1 (2,005). Now it has turned to the downside. The false breakouts confirmed exhausted buyers and an overbought situation. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- Now, it challenges the upper median line (uml), representing dynamic support. If it stays above it, the XAU/USD could resume its growth anytime. On the contrary, dropping and stabilizing below it may trigger a larger downward movement. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gold-price-unchanged-under-2000-after-pmi-data/
