2023-11-23 09:33
Jeremy Hunt introduced tax cuts and growth-boosting measures in his autumn budget. Hunt forecasted a slower UK economic outlook than anticipated. Data indicated a larger-than-expected drop in US unemployment claims. Thursday witnessed a steadying pound, pausing its previous-session decline and contributing to a cautiously optimistic GBP/USD outlook. On Wednesday, UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt introduced tax cuts and growth-boosting measures in his autumn budget. However, despite these initiatives, he forecasted a slower economic outlook than anticipated. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Notably, he announced worker tax cuts and provided permanent investment incentives for businesses. These reforms are meant to accelerate an economy stuck in a slow growth pattern before the expected 2024 election. Conversely, the dollar index rose on Wednesday, recovering after economic data indicated a larger-than-expected drop in US unemployment claims last week. The Labor Department reported a 24,000 decrease in initial claims for state unemployment benefits. It marked the lowest level in over a month. Moreover, the dollar continued its gains after the University of Michigan’s survey revealed that US consumers’ inflation expectations rose for the second month in November. Meanwhile, other data showed a more substantial-than-expected decline in orders for durable US manufactured goods in October. This drop came from lower orders for motor vehicles. Moreover, there were strikes by the United Auto Workers union against Detroit’s Big Three automakers. The dollar index had reached its lowest level since Aug. 31 on Tuesday. However, it stabilized after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting. The minutes suggested the central bank’s inclination to maintain a restrictive stance on interest rates for some time. Still, additional rate hikes are unlikely. GBP/USD key events today The pair will likely move sideways as markets in the US are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. GBP/USD technical outlook: Price hits 30-SMA support amid uptrend weakness The pound dropped to the 30-SMA support after the RSI pointed to weakness in the uptrend. It is a sign that bears took advantage of bullish weakness to lower the price. However, they could not change the bias to bearish as they failed to break below the 30-SMA. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the RSI stayed above the pivotal 50 level, supporting bullish momentum. The price is currently trading near the 1.2501 key level and the SMA. There is a high chance that the bulls will regain momentum and bounce off this support zone. However, there will be a shift in sentiment if the price falls below the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-outlook-pound-steadies-after-hunts-tax-cuts/
2023-11-23 08:13
Currencies saw little movement, with markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. US data revealed a greater-than-expected drop in American unemployment claims. The European Central Bank will release its October policy meeting minutes. While the EUR/USD forecast leaned slightly bearish, the currency markets remained hushed on Thursday due to holidays in Japan and the United States. Meanwhile, the US dollar struggled to maintain slight gains after data prompted investors to reconsider the peak for Fed rates. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- The euro saw little movement, with markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. However, the euro fell as the dollar index rebounded overnight, rising from a 2-1/2 month low. Economic data revealed a greater-than-expected drop in Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits last week. However, confusing investors, data also showed a larger-than-anticipated decline in orders for durable US manufactured goods in October. Therefore, it shows a significant economic slowdown after strong third-quarter growth. Meanwhile, a Michigan survey indicated that consumers expect higher inflation in the near and long term. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2024 have decreased. Notably, the CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicates a 27% chance of a rate cut at the March 2024 policy meeting. Elsewhere, the ECB will release its October policy meeting minutes. Additionally, policymakers anticipate a reversal in recent rate hikes. Governing Council member Joachim Nagel suggested rates in the Eurozone are at or near their peak in the current cycle. Furthermore, global flash November purchasing manager indexes (PMIs) will be released. These will help investors assess recession risks and the timing of rate cuts. EUR/USD key events today Investors are not expecting any significant economic releases as the US observes the Thanksgiving holiday. Therefore, trading might be thin today. EUR/USD technical forecast: Bearish RSI divergence takes effect The bearish divergence on the RSI has played out on the charts, pushing the price below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the price broke below the 1.0900 key level before pulling back for a retest. It was a good attempt for the bears to take control. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- However, the price still needs to detach from the SMA. Moreover, the RSI must start trading in bearish territory to confirm a bearish takeover. If bears win this battle, the price will likely drop to the 1.0750 support level. However, if bulls regain strength, the price will likely take out the 1.0951 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-forecast-markets-lull-on-thanksgiving/
2023-11-22 11:56
The EUR/USD pair seems determined to hit new lows as the dollar gains ahead of FOMC. The lower median line is seen as a potential target. The US data could have an impact later today. The EUR/USD price went down, trading at 1.0899 at press time, way lower than yesterday’s highest point of 1.0963. The downtick move is attributed to the stronger US dollar. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- The Greenback got stronger after Canada’s inflation numbers came out. The CPI and Core CPI showed higher inflation than last month’s reading. Even though US Existing Home Sales were not as good as expected, the US dollar is still strong in the wake of FOMC Meeting Minutes. The FED said they’re keeping the same monetary policy and won’t change the interest rates. Today, US data could drive the market. The Unemployment Claims may drop from 231K to 226K last week. Also, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment could go up from 60.4 to 61.1 points. Also, Durable Goods Orders might show a 3.2% drop after growing by 4.6% last time. Core Durable Goods Orders might show a 0.2% growth. On the other hand, the Eurozone will release the Consumer Confidence indicator, which might stay at -18 points. The currency pair failed to retest the ascending pitchfork’s upper median line (uml), signaling exhausted buyers. The pair has now dropped below the median line (ml), representing dynamic support. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- After its sell-off, the price could retest the median line (ml) before extending its sell-off. The downside obstacle turned into an upside obstacle, so false breakouts may result in a downside continuation. The lower median line (lml) and the weekly pivot point of 1.0830 represent key targets if the rate continues to drop. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-price-slips-below-1-09-as-market-awaits-fomc/
2023-11-22 10:02
The Fed’s minutes failed to change expectations of looming rate cuts. Bank of England Governor Bailey highlighted the risks of sustained inflation growth. Markets are pricing in approximately 70 basis points of BoE rate cuts by the end of next year. On Wednesday, the GBP/USD forecast remained bullish, affirming its strength as the pound sustained its position near a 10-week high against the dollar. Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting minutes did little to change expectations that the rate-hike cycle had ended. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Fed officials emphasized they would only consider raising interest rates if progress in controlling inflation stalled. On Tuesday, the British pound reached a 10-week high against a weakened U.S. dollar. Moreover, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated that the central bank’s stance on interest rates would not change. Furthermore, Bailey expressed confidence in inflation returning to the central bank’s 2% target. However, he highlighted the risks of sustained high price growth, stating that the risks leaned towards the upside. Additionally, Catherine Mann, a more hawkish member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, advocated further tightening to ensure a return to the inflation target. Mann was in the minority when she voted for a 25-basis-point increase in the Bank Rate in November. Money market traders believe that UK interest rates have peaked. As such, markets are pricing in approximately 70 basis points of rate cuts by the end of next year. Consequently, it implies nearly three rate cuts by the end of 2024. Last week, markets had estimated around 60 basis points of cuts by the end of next year. Meanwhile, investors also paid attention to Wednesday’s Autumn Statement. Here, British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt will announce fiscal policy changes to boost the sluggish economy. GBP/USD key events today The UK Autumn Forecast Statement US initial jobless claims US core durable goods orders. GBP/USD technical forecast: Weakening bulls The pound made a new high above the 1.2501 key level. However, the move higher made small-bodied candles, a sign of weakness. This weakness is also shown by the RSI, which has made a bearish divergence. Although the price increased, the RSI made a lower high, indicating weaker momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- Still, the bias is bullish because the price is above the 30-SMA and the RSI above 50. Bulls must regain momentum for this bullish bias to continue. Otherwise, bears might take over with a break below the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-forecast-pound-retains-bid-tone-at-10-week-top/
2023-11-22 08:27
Canada’s annual inflation rate dropped more than anticipated to 3.1%. Money markets have almost completely factored in a BoC rate cut by April. Speculators have boosted their bearish bets on the Canadian dollar. Wednesday’s USD/CAD price analysis painted a bullish picture, influenced by data on Tuesday revealing a decrease in Canada’s inflation. Moreover, investors were absorbing minutes from the recent Federal Reserve meeting. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- In October, Canada’s annual inflation rate dropped more than anticipated to 3.1%. Meanwhile, core inflation measures reached their lowest points in approximately two years. Simon Harvey from Monex Europe and Monex Canada stated, “This aligns with our belief that the BoC, having led the Fed in the hiking cycle, will once again lead in the 2024 easing cycle, with a probable cut as early as April.” Furthermore, recent weeks have seen markets gradually align with this perspective. Consequently, the Canadian dollar has lagged behind the G10 rally caused by the weaker dollar. Additionally, money markets have almost completely factored in a BoC rate cut by April and anticipate three cuts next year. The upcoming BoC rate decision will be on December 6. Moreover, it will come after the release of third-quarter GDP data, anticipated to reveal a slight contraction in the Canadian economy. Elsewhere, data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that speculators have increased their bearish bets on the Canadian dollar to the highest level since June 2017. Meanwhile, the US dollar recovered from recent declines against a basket of major currencies. This recovery came as Federal Reserve officials, in their last meeting, agreed to adopt a cautious approach to future rate hikes. USD/CAD key events today US core durable goods orders US initial jobless claims US crude oil inventories USD/CAD technical price analysis: Bulls struggle against 30-SMA resistance On the charts, the USD/CAD price is facing the 30-SMA resistance and has struggled to break above for some time. Bears have held control since the price broke below the SMA and the 1.3750 key level. However, they have failed to make lower lows as bulls try to regain control. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- The price has retested the 30-SMA several times and might eventually break above. Still, bulls must also break above 1.3750 to confirm a bullish takeover. However, at the moment, bears are still ahead, and the RSI supports bearish momentum below 50. If bears hold control, the price will retest the 1.3650 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-cad-price-analysis-loonie-loses-strength-as-inflation-dips/
2023-11-21 14:28
XAU/USD remains bullish despite the current retreat. Staying near the 1,993 may announce an imminent breakout. A new lower low activates a deeper drop. Gold price dropped a bit today, dropping from its highest point of 1,994 to 1,988. After a recent increase, it was kind of expected. But don’t count gold out just yet – the pressure for it to go up is still strong because the US dollar is not doing so well. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Today, what’s happening worldwide could change gold’s price. A report on the Canadian Consumer Price Index is coming up, and it might show a 0.1% increase, which is better than the 0.1% drop in the last report. They’re also releasing data on Core CPI, Common CPI, Trimmed CPI, and Median CPI. But the big deal is the FOMC Meeting Minutes. This could shake things up. The US dollar underwent some changes after the US inflation numbers came out. If the meeting minutes sound tough, it could strengthen the US dollar and make gold prices drop. But if the report is more laid-back, gold prices might go up again. Tomorrow, more stuff could move gold’s price – like the US Unemployment Claim, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Durable Goods Orders, and Core Durable Goods Orders. Keep an eye out for those! Gold price technical analysis: Selling territory Looking at the hourly chart, the rate hit a high of 1,993 but couldn’t quite stay there, showing some false breakouts. Now, it’s heading down. It’s trying to challenge the upper median line (uml). When it couldn’t reach and test the 150% Fibonacci line, it hinted that the buyers might be getting tired. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- To really see more drops, it has to settle below that upper median line (uml) and make a new lower low. If it hangs around 1,993, we might be on the brink of a breakout and things might keep going in the same direction. If it can break out of the supply zone, that’s a good sign for more growth. The R1 (2,005) is like a target that could be reached if things keep going up. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gold-price-struggling-to-find-acceptance-above-2000/
