2023-11-21 09:55

China’s upward guidance of the yuan contributed to a weaker dollar. The Central Bank of China set the midpoint of the yuan’s trading band at its strongest level since Aug. 7. Investors have even begun pricing in rate cuts as early as March. In the realm of AUD/USD price analysis, Tuesday witnessed a commendable surge in the Australian dollar, driven by the announcement of China’s currency adjustment. This noteworthy event injected a distinctly bullish sentiment into the ongoing market evaluation of AUD/USD. At the same time, China’s upward guidance of the yuan contributed to a weaker dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve’s minutes. However, analysts caution that the downward momentum of the dollar may be limited. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- The Central Bank of China set the midpoint of the yuan’s trading band at its strongest level since Aug. 7. As a result, the yuan reached an almost four-month high of 7.1301 against the dollar. At the same time, the Australian dollar climbed 0.4%, reaching a three-month high. National Australia Bank strategist Rodrigo Catril in Sydney noted that China’s strong currency fixing and a Bloomberg News report on support for the property sector boosted market sentiment. Catril said, “It’s encouraging the market to think: ‘OK, cool, we’ve seen the worst CNY weakness.’ Moreover, they’re telling us they want dollar/CNH lower.” According to Bloomberg News, Chinese regulators are compiling a list of 50 developers eligible for funding. Meanwhile, minutes from Australia’s November policy meeting revealed the central bank’s concern that inflation expectations could become entrenched if it did not raise interest rates. Elsewhere, investor attention will focus on the Federal Reserve’s last meeting minutes to assess the direction of interest rates. Traders have nearly fully priced in the likelihood of the Fed maintaining unchanged interest rates in December. Furthermore, some have even begun pricing in rate cuts as early as March. AUD/USD key events today Fed meeting minutes The existing home sales report from the US AUD/USD technical price analysis: Bearish divergence Aussie is ascending toward the 0.6600 resistance level. Bulls made progress when the price broke above the strong 0.6525 resistance level. However, the RSI shows weaker bullish momentum even as the price climbs. There is a bearish divergence that indicates exhaustion in the bullish move. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- Therefore, bulls might need to pause and retest the 0.6525 key level before the uptrend continues. However, the uptrend will only continue if the price holds above the 30-SMA and the RSI stays above 50. https://www.forexcrunch.com/aud-usd-price-analysis-chinas-currency-adjustment-lifts-aussie/

2023-11-21 08:33

China’s upward guidance of the yuan weighed on the dollar. The yen strengthened over 0.5%, reaching its highest point in seven weeks. Investors are anticipating the release of Fed minutes. On Tuesday, the USD/JPY outlook was bearish, driven by the dollar’s decline to new lows against the yen. This movement came due to China’s upward guidance of the yuan, contributing to a more widespread weakness in the dollar’s value. As such, the yen strengthened over 0.5%, reaching its highest point in seven weeks at 147.5 per dollar. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, a Bloomberg News report on upcoming support for the property sector in China boosted risk appetite, hurting the dollar. Meanwhile, US yields declined amid expectations that US interest rates have peaked. Markets have nearly ruled out the risk of further US rate hikes in December or the next year. On a different note, investors are anticipating the release of Fed minutes at 1900 GMT. The yen has shown signs of a turnaround. After decades of falling prices, global inflationary pressures gradually impact Japan’s economy. Consequently, investors are reassessing their Japan-related investments as the Bank of Japan considers a significant policy shift. Friday’s inflation data will likely reveal an acceleration in core consumer prices in October in Japan. Mizuho Bank’s head of economics, Vishnu Varathan, emphasized the need for a reality check on the Fed’s hawkish bias. He stated that it is not independent of yield movements. Furthermore, he noted the potential for a self-checking mechanism if yields fall too much, suggesting that the dollar’s decline might stop. Finally, Varathan cautioned against premature declarations until the December Fed meeting. Today’s minutes could be significant if language changes concerning the bond market. USD/JPY key events today Existing US home sales FOMC meeting minutes USD/JPY technical outlook: Prices tumble as bearish momentum strengthens On the charts, the USD/JPY price is on a downward spiral, with the price leaping over support levels. The bearish trend started when the price crossed below the 30-SMA. Moreover, bears confirmed the new direction when the price retested and respected the 30-SMA resistance. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- Since then, the price has fallen and crossed below key support levels. Recently, bears broke below the 148.00 support level. However, with the RSI in the oversold region, the price might finally pause for a retracement. Still, before that, we could see it fall to the 147.01 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-outlook-chinas-yuan-guidance-weakens-the-dollar/

2023-11-20 14:21

The gold correction could be only temporary. The median line (ml) is seen as a dynamic support. The Canadian CPI and the FOMC Minutes should move the rate. The price of gold is going down right now, and it might go even lower. Currently, it’s at $1,971, which is quite a bit less than the highest point today, which was $1,985. This drop is normal after a period of growth. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Even though the US Dollar went down compared to other currencies, gold still dropped. The US Building Permits and Housing starts were better than expected on Friday. Today, the US will share the CB Leading Index, and there might be a 0.5% drop. Tomorrow, some important things are happening that could affect the market. The FOMC Meeting Minutes, RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, and Canadian inflation figures are coming out. The Consumer Price Index might show a 0.2% growth after a 0.1% growth last time. If inflation goes up, the BOC might have to make some decisions in their meetings, which could hurt the gold price. Also, data about manufacturing and services could make a big impact at the end of the week. Gold price technical analysis: Looking at the technical side of things for XAU/USD, it hit a roadblock at the 150% Fibonacci line, and now it’s going down. There’s a strong resistance around $1,996 that’s preventing it from going up. The rate tested the upper median line (uml) and is now moving towards the weekly pivot point of $1,968, which is a solid support level. The median line (ml) is like a moving support and a target for the downside. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- If the rate breaks these support levels, there could be a bigger drop, but it might just be a temporary setback. The rate might be taking a breather to gather more positive energy before going up again. Watch out for fake breakdowns below the median line (ml) because they could signal a new upward trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gold-price-consolidating-at-1970-awaits-canadian-cpi/

2023-11-20 11:22

Investors are focused on when the Federal Reserve might start cutting rates. There was an unexpected fall in British retail sales volumes for October. In October, there was a slight increase in US single-family homebuilding. As the new week dawned on Monday, a bullish glow enveloped the GBP/USD outlook as the pound rallied on a weakening dollar. This decline in the dollar came as investors focused on when the Federal Reserve might start cutting rates. Currently, markets have ruled out the possibility of further rate hikes from the Fed due to a weaker inflation reading. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, official data on Friday revealed an unexpected fall in British retail sales volumes for October, signaling financial strain among consumers. There was a 0.3% month-on-month decline, following a revised 1.1% drop in September, worse than initially estimated. Economists had expected a 0.3% rise in October sales volumes. Moreover, the figures align with the gloomy outlook for the British economy. Economic growth remains stagnant, and strong price pressures are fading slowly. Consequently, investors anticipate these factors will compel the Bank of England to lower interest rates next year. Furthermore, given the narrow escape from an economic contraction in the third quarter, the Friday figures indicate a risk of GDP being revised lower to a negative reading. Compared to the last year, retail sales were 2.7% lower. Meanwhile, data from the US on Friday showed a slight increase in US single-family homebuilding. However, the outlook for the near term suggests that activity may stay moderate due to elevated mortgage rates. These higher rates contributed to a significant decline in homebuilder confidence. GBP/USD key events today There are no key events today, which might lead to a slow start to the week for GBP/USD. GBP/USD technical outlook: Bullish bias holds, but momentum weakens. The GBP/USD price has bounced off the 1.2400 key support level and is approaching the 1.2501 resistance level. The bias is bullish, but the momentum has weakened. Additionally, this weakness can be seen in the RSI, which has made a bearish divergence while the price made a double top. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- If bulls are weaker, the price will likely fail to go above the 1.2501 resistance. Therefore, bears might resurface to push the price back to the 1.2400 support. However, if bulls regain momentum, the price will rise above the 1.2501 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-outlook-pound-peaks-at-1-25-amid-softer-dollar/

2023-11-20 09:24

Traders are focused on when the Federal Reserve might start reducing rates. Futures indicate a 30% chance that the Fed could start rate cuts as early as next March. The euro reached its highest point in over two months. As we embark on the new week, the dollar extended its downward journey, painting an optimistic picture for the EUR/USD forecast. In response to the weakened dollar, the euro climbed to a level exceeding $1.0924. Consequently, it hit its highest point in over two months. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Traders solidified their belief that US rates have peaked and shifted attention to when the Fed might start reducing rates. Notably, the dollar index hit 103.64, marking its weakest point since September 1. This extends its almost 2% drop from last week, the steepest weekly decline since July. Weaker-than-expected US economic indicators, particularly a below-estimate inflation reading, led markets to rule out the possibility of further rate hikes from the Fed. Now, the focus is on the timing of the first rate cuts. Moreover, futures indicate a 30% chance that the Fed could initiate rate reductions as early as next March, according to the CME FedWatch tool. “The market will likely maintain relatively stable pricing for FOMC policy this week. Therefore, there will be limited catalysts for significant movements in the dollar,” stated Carol Kong, a strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Furthermore, she said, “In the event of an improvement in risk appetite, the dollar has the potential to weaken further.” Meanwhile, investors are awaiting the minutes of the latest Fed meeting later this week. These will provide insight into Fed policy. EUR/USD key events today Investors do not expect any key economic reports from the US or the Eurozone. Therefore, the pair will likely consolidate. EUR/USD technical forecast: Bullish momentum wanes above 1.0900. The bias for EUR/USD on the 4-hour chart is bullish, and the price has made a new high. EUR/USD currently trades above the 1.0900 key level. However, bulls are not making as strong candles as they did when the price broke above the 1.0750 key level. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the RSI is showing a bearish divergence with the price. It indicates weaker momentum in the bullish move. Consequently, bears might come in for a deep pullback or reversal. If that is the case, the price will likely break below the 30-SMA to retest the 1.0750 key level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-forecast-dollars-descent-favoring-euro-buyers/

2023-11-18 18:56

The GBP/USD weekly forecast is bullish as the pair ended the challenging week marking a 2-week top around 1.2500. The pair’s trajectory hinges on speculation about future central bank actions and the upcoming manufacturing PMI data. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Ups and downs of last week The US market, brimming with data, suggested the Federal Reserve (Fed) had concluded its interest rate hiking cycle. Coupled with subdued US Treasury bond yields, this sentiment allowed GBP/USD to recover lost ground. Soft US economic data fueled expectations of an extended Fed pause, with markets already pricing in cuts by May 2015. Notable indicators included a significant drop in US PPI in October, a US CPI inflation rate slowing to 3.2% YoY, and a negative 0.1% month-on-month retail sales in October. Additionally, US Initial Jobless Claims reached 231,000 in the week ending November 11. The dollar index touched a two-month low as the 10-year UST Bond yield dropped below 4.50%. Correspondingly, GBP/USD strengthened, surpassing the 1.2506 mark. GBP buyers remained resilient despite the British CPI falling to 4.6% YoY in October. In September, the UK ILO Unemployment Rate held at 4.2%, while Average Earnings Excluding Bonus increased by 7.7% 3M YoY. Market bets adjusted for potential BoE interest rate cuts in 2024. Sterling rallied against the dollar but faced headwinds towards the week’s end due to concerns about the Chinese property sector. Weakness in US Treasury bond yields led to a decline in USD/JPY, offsetting GBP/USD losses after weak UK retail sales dropped by 0.3% in October. GBP/USD key events/data next week Thin trading is anticipated on Wednesday due to Thanksgiving on Thursday. On Monday, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak, though not necessarily about monetary policy. No significant events are slated in the US economic calendar for that day. Key releases on Wednesday include US dollar valuations influenced by US Existing Home Sales and Minutes of Fed’s November meeting. Thursday focuses on the UK’s early Manufacturing and Services PMIs, while Friday features the United States S&P Global PMIs. Speeches by Federal Reserve policymakers will be closely observed for insights into the US interest rate outlook. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls keeping control The GBP/USD price wobbles around the 200-day and 100-day SMAs. The pair needs a strong impetus to break and stay above this resistance zone. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- However, the 20-day and 50-day SMAs have created a bullish crossover. It shows the potential of a continued rally. The 1.2500 level remains a tough nut. On the flip side, 1.2350 is a strong support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-poised-to-gain-in-thanksgiving-week/