2023-11-16 09:58
There are signs that the Fed might postpone any plans for interest rate cuts. Japan’s exports grew for a second consecutive month in October. Traders have reduced the probability of an initial Fed rate cut by March. Thursday’s USD/JPY outlook leans towards the bullish side as the dollar firms on signs that the Federal Reserve might postpone any plans for interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, the yen was weaker after data revealed a slowdown in Japan’s economy. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Japan’s exports grew for a second consecutive month in October. However, the growth was considerably slower, mainly due to reduced shipments of chips and steel to China. Ministry of Finance data revealed a 1.6% increase in exports from a year earlier. Although it surpassed the 1.2% forecasted by economists, it lagged behind the 4.3% rise in September. Notably, the trade-dependent economy faces challenges from weak exports and sluggish domestic demand. Consequently, it complicates efforts to stimulate growth in the post-pandemic recovery. Moreover, some economists caution that Japan, lacking growth momentum, could enter a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction. Meanwhile, the dollar found support after retail sales exceeded expectations and producer prices fell. The data contributed to the narrative of an economic ‘soft landing.’ Furthermore, this scenario would provide the Fed additional time before implementing rate cuts. Traders continue to be confident that interest rates will not increase. However, they have reduced the probability of an initial rate cut by March to less than 1 in 4. USD/JPY key events today Investors are preparing to receive reports from the US that will show the state of the economy, including The initial jobless claims report The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index USD/JPY technical outlook: Bulls eye upside potential beyond the 30-SMA On the charts, the USD/JPY price is attempting to push above the 30-SMA as bulls struggle for control. However, they face an uphill task with resistance at the SMA and slightly above at the 151.51 key level. Still, the RSI has crossed above 50, showing bulls are gaining momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The next step for bulls will be to detach from the SMA and break above the 151.51 resistance. This would then allow the price to seek new highs. However, if bulls fail to breach the 151.51 level, the price will likely collapse to retest the 150.75 support and lower. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-outlook-markets-anticipate-delay-in-fed-rate-cuts/
2023-11-16 08:41
Australian employment rebounded in October. Australia’s jobless rate slightly increased as more individuals actively sought employment. Markets see little justification for the RBA to hike in December. The Aussie’s dip following a mixed employment report sparked a hint of bearish sentiment in Thursday’s AUD/USD forecast. Australian employment rebounded in October following a sluggish period the previous month. However, the jobless rate slightly increased as more individuals actively sought employment. At the same time, increased migration contributed to a larger labor supply. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Notably, net employment in Australia surged by 55,000 in October, surpassing market expectations of 20,000. Meanwhile, the jobless rate increased to 3.7%, in line with forecasts. This increase was primarily due to a rise in the participation rate, reaching an all-time peak of 67%. Record numbers of migrants and students entering the country expanded the labor supply to meet demand. Therefore, despite the solid employment figure of 55,000, the labor force grew even more substantially by 83,000. Consequently, the increased supply suggests that the labor market is not the primary driver of inflation. As such, markets see little justification for the RBA implementing another rate hike in December. The central bank recently raised rates to a 12-year high of 4.35% and kept the possibility of further increases open. However, futures indicate only a 7% probability of a rise in December. Moreover, the labor data hinted at a potential easing in the market, with the ABS highlighting a drop in the annual growth of hours worked from 5% earlier in the year to 1.7%. AUD/USD key events today Investors are eagerly awaiting major economic reports from the US, including Initial jobless claims The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index AUD/USD technical forecast: Resistance at 0.6525 prompts pullback. Although the bias for AUD/USD is bullish, the price is currently pulling back after finding resistance at the 0.6525 level. The SMA, which sits below the price, and the RSI, which trades in bullish territory, support the bullish bias. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The pullback is approaching the 0.6450 support level, where bulls might be waiting to resume the bullish move. Moreover, the 30-SMA might act as support for the price if it dips below 0.6450. A return of bullish momentum will likely see the price make a new high above the 0.6525 resistance level. However, the bullish bias will change if the price breaks below the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/aud-usd-forecast-mixed-jobs-data-weighs-on-aussie/
2023-11-15 09:30
An unexpectedly softer US inflation reading weighed on the dollar. The euro hovered just below a more than two-month high achieved on Tuesday. Data confirmed a slight contraction in the Eurozone economy in the third quarter. The EUR/USD forecast is bullish as the dollar struggles significantly lower. This struggle comes after an overnight decline triggered by an unexpectedly softer US inflation reading. The report reinforced the belief that the Federal Reserve has completed its monetary tightening cycle. The dollar’s slump led to a surge in many peer currencies, and the euro hovered just below a more than two-month high achieved on Tuesday. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data showed that US consumer prices remained unchanged in October. Moreover, the annual increase in underlying inflation was the smallest in two years. Over the 12 months through October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.2%, falling below economists’ projections. Consequently, market participants nearly ruled out the possibility of another rate hike at the Fed’s December monetary policy meeting. Meanwhile, expectations of a rate cut in May next year rose to approximately 50%. The dollar plummeted by 1.5% overnight against major currencies. Additionally, US Treasury yields, which had previously contributed to the dollar’s strength, experienced a significant decline. Meanwhile, a new estimate on Tuesday confirmed a slight contraction in the Eurozone economy in the third quarter. As a result, there are concerns about a potential technical recession if the fourth quarter follows a similarly weak trend. However, there was a positive note as employment levels still experienced an increase. EUR/USD key events today Key events from the US today will include reports on, Core retail sales The producer price index Retail sales EUR/USD technical forecast: Bullish trend surges well past 1.0751. The bullish bias for EUR/USD is strong as it finally broke above the 1.0751 resistance level to make a new high. The price had traded in a sideways move below 1.0751 for some time before going above. Moreover, it has rallied and is approaching the 1.0900 key resistance level. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, the price is overbought, as seen in the RSI, which trades above 70. It might allow bears to resurface for a pullback. At the same time, the price is trading too far above the 30-SMA, and it might need to pull back before continuing higher. Still, bulls will likely soon take out the 1.0900 key level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-forecast-dollar-wallows-after-soft-inflation-data/
2023-11-15 08:50
The bias is bullish as long as it stays above the upper median line. The US economic data should bring high volatility today. Taking out the static resistance activates further growth. Gold price increased in the recent trading session, hitting a new high of $1,971. It did dip a bit in the short term but quickly went back up to $1,971. This happened because of the recent U.S. inflation data, where the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed lower inflation than expected. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- This made the Federal Reserve (FED) decide to keep the monetary policy unchanged in the upcoming meetings. As a result, the U.S. dollar weakened against other currencies, leading to the rise in gold prices. Today, good news came in from China – the Industrial Production and Retail Sales were better than expected. In Australia, the Wage Price Index matched what was predicted. In the United Kingdom, the Consumer Price Index reported a 4.6% growth instead of the estimated 4.7%, and Core CPI rose by 5.7%, slightly less than the expected 5.8% growth. Looking ahead, the U.S. is going to release some important data. Retail Sales may show a 0.3% drop, Core Retail Sales might announce a 0.1% drop, PPI is expected to register a 0.1% growth, and the Core PPI could report a 0.3% growth again. Keep an eye out for these numbers as they can have an impact on the market. Gold price technical analysis: Testing resistance at $1,971 Technically, the XAU/USD is going up again after testing certain levels. It went above the 150% Fibonacci line and is now trying to break the 1,971 level, which is like a barrier. If it manages to go higher than this, it could keep growing, reaching at least the R1 level (1,976). The current trend looks positive, as long as it stays above a certain line. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gold-price-preserving-gains-after-downbeat-us-cpi-figures/
2023-11-15 08:03
The pound surged on Tuesday amid dollar weakness. US consumer price data for October indicated a further slowdown in inflation. Many analysts believe that the Fed’s interest rates have peaked. The GBP/USD price analysis indicates a bullish tone as the British pound maintains its position near the recent highs achieved on Tuesday. However, the recent UK CPI data showed a decline to 5.7% against the expected 5.8% and previous 6.1%. Though the price retraced a bit, the uptrend remains intact. The pound surged on Tuesday amid dollar weakness as US consumer price data for October indicated a further slowdown in inflation. Consequently, there is a high likelihood that the Federal Reserve has concluded its interest rate hikes. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- US consumer prices held steady last month due to lower gasoline prices, following a 0.4% increase in September. The report’s release led to an immediate decline in the dollar and a sharp drop in Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year yield fell below 4.5%. John Doyle from Monex USA in Washington, predicted a continued dollar weakening through the end of the year, possibly into early January. The market welcomed the data. Moreover, many analysts believe that the Fed’s interest rates have peaked. Meanwhile, futures indicate a more than 68% probability the Fed will cut interest rates by 25bps or more by next May. In the UK, data revealed that workers’ wages grew less rapidly in the three months to September. Still, they remained near their record pace. However, these figures are unlikely to reduce the Bank of England’s concerns about inflationary pressures. Moreover, they did not alter market-based forecasts for a UK rate cut in June 2024 at the earliest. GBP/USD key events today The US will release several major economic reports, including: Retail sales Core retail sales The Producer Price Index report. GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bullish momentum surges to new highs. On the technical side, the pound has rallied to new heights, breaking above key resistance levels. The steep surge saw the price break above the 1.2300 and the 1.2401 resistance levels. Currently, bulls have paused below the 1.2501 resistance level. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the strong surge has left the 30-SMA well below the price. Therefore, it might lead to a pause or pullback as the SMA catches up. At the same time, the RSI is deeply overbought, showing that bullish momentum has hit extreme levels. It might allow bears to come in for a retracement to the 1.2401 support level before the uptrend continues. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-price-analysis-pound-holds-gains-after-us-inflation/
2023-11-14 09:56
The bias is bullish as long as it stays above the lower median line (lml). Taking out the former high activates further growth. The US CPI should bring sharp movements today. The EUR/USD price gained in the late New York session as the US dollar slid again. Right now, things seem positive for Euro in the short term, even with small setbacks. Further pullbacks in the Greenback may stir a deeper correction. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Yesterday, the US Federal Budget Balance was -66.6B, which was not as bad as the expected -70.5B. Before that, it was -171.0B. Today, we’re waiting for the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment, expected at 6.1 points compared to the previous 2.3 points. German ZEW Economic Sentiment might be 4.9 in November, up from -1.1 in October. Also, the Eurozone Flash GDP might show a 0.1% drop, and Flash Employment Change might report a 0.2% growth. The important stuff today is the US inflation figures. The CPI m/m might show a 0.1% growth, less than the 0.4% growth in September. The CPI y/y could announce a 3.3% growth, and Core CPI should show a 0.3% growth again in October. I think if inflation is lower, it might make the USD weaker. EUR/USD price technical analysis: Wobbling in the supply area https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-price-mildly-gains-above-1-07-as-market-awaits-us-cpi/
