2023-11-18 18:56

The GBP/USD weekly forecast is bullish as the pair ended the challenging week marking a 2-week top around 1.2500. The pair’s trajectory hinges on speculation about future central bank actions and the upcoming manufacturing PMI data. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Ups and downs of last week The US market, brimming with data, suggested the Federal Reserve (Fed) had concluded its interest rate hiking cycle. Coupled with subdued US Treasury bond yields, this sentiment allowed GBP/USD to recover lost ground. Soft US economic data fueled expectations of an extended Fed pause, with markets already pricing in cuts by May 2015. Notable indicators included a significant drop in US PPI in October, a US CPI inflation rate slowing to 3.2% YoY, and a negative 0.1% month-on-month retail sales in October. Additionally, US Initial Jobless Claims reached 231,000 in the week ending November 11. The dollar index touched a two-month low as the 10-year UST Bond yield dropped below 4.50%. Correspondingly, GBP/USD strengthened, surpassing the 1.2506 mark. GBP buyers remained resilient despite the British CPI falling to 4.6% YoY in October. In September, the UK ILO Unemployment Rate held at 4.2%, while Average Earnings Excluding Bonus increased by 7.7% 3M YoY. Market bets adjusted for potential BoE interest rate cuts in 2024. Sterling rallied against the dollar but faced headwinds towards the week’s end due to concerns about the Chinese property sector. Weakness in US Treasury bond yields led to a decline in USD/JPY, offsetting GBP/USD losses after weak UK retail sales dropped by 0.3% in October. GBP/USD key events/data next week Thin trading is anticipated on Wednesday due to Thanksgiving on Thursday. On Monday, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak, though not necessarily about monetary policy. No significant events are slated in the US economic calendar for that day. Key releases on Wednesday include US dollar valuations influenced by US Existing Home Sales and Minutes of Fed’s November meeting. Thursday focuses on the UK’s early Manufacturing and Services PMIs, while Friday features the United States S&P Global PMIs. Speeches by Federal Reserve policymakers will be closely observed for insights into the US interest rate outlook. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls keeping control The GBP/USD price wobbles around the 200-day and 100-day SMAs. The pair needs a strong impetus to break and stay above this resistance zone. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- However, the 20-day and 50-day SMAs have created a bullish crossover. It shows the potential of a continued rally. The 1.2500 level remains a tough nut. On the flip side, 1.2350 is a strong support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-poised-to-gain-in-thanksgiving-week/

2023-11-18 18:34

Gold price closed the week higher as the dollar struggled. The US inflation cooled down, putting pressure on the greenback. Technical correction may occur in gold amid profit taking. Gold weekly forecast is bullish as the price surged by 2.5% last week. The US Dollar weakened, and US Treasury bond yields declined. The upcoming week lacks significant macroeconomic events, providing an opportunity to focus on the technical analysis of XAU/USD for potential trading opportunities. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Ups and down last week Gold underwent a technical upside correction on Monday, driven by the absence of impactful data releases. Tuesday saw Gold gaining momentum, surpassing $1,970. Notably, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicated a monthly decrease in inflation from 0.4% in September to -0.1% in October, settling at 3.2% for the year. During the same period, the core CPI, excluding volatile energy and food prices, rose by 4%. The USD faced significant selling pressure, dropping by over 3% as the 10-year US Treasury bond yield fell below 4.5%. Consequently, XAU/USD saw an increase of more than 1%. US Retail Sales for October declined by 0.1%, outperforming the market’s forecast of a 0.3% contraction. However, Thursday’s initial jobless claims rose, impacting the dollar’s performance. Additionally, the Federal Reserve reported a 0.6% decrease in Industrial Production for October. Despite midweek volatility, gold made strides, moving towards $1,980. Even on the last trading day of the week, with falling UST yields, Gold continued its upward trend, peaking above $1,990, marking its highest point in a while. Positive sentiment was fueled by Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson’s statement that the bank’s balance sheet has no immediate end. Gold demand remained strong, with Indian buyers overlooking local price increases during Diwali festivities and China’s continuous accumulation of gold holdings maintaining high premiums. Gold’s key events next week The Federal Reserve will release meeting minutes on Tuesday, but market reactions are expected to be subdued as the focus shifts to a potential Fed policy change in 2015. Wednesday’s US economic docket includes October Durable Goods Orders and weekly Initial Jobless Claims. The market’s response will likely follow the usual pattern, with worse-than-forecast numbers affecting the dollar negatively and stronger supporting figures. Thursday marks the closure of US markets for the Thanksgiving Day holiday, followed by a half-day on Friday. Thin trading conditions may limit market response to S&P Global’s preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI surveys for November. Given the current market trends, investors should closely monitor technical changes in XAU/USD for potential opportunities. Gold weekly technical forecast: Buyers awaiting pullback The gold’s daily chart shows the price slowly climbing to the all-time highs of $2,075. The price maintains a well bid tone above the key SMAs. However, Friday’s close suggests a mild downside correction amid profit-taking. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- Hence, the metal may gather to buy traction once it dips to the demand zone. Breaking the zone may attract sellers, changing the outlook to bearish. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gold-weekly-forecast-buying-intensifies-as-dollar-tumbles/

2023-11-17 10:44

The bias is bullish as the USD depreciates versus its rivals. Taking out the 150% line activates more gains ahead. Only a bearish pattern could signal a new sell-off. The gold price continued its upward trend, buoyed by the Dollar Index’s recent decline. The depreciation of the USD has provided impetus for XAU/USD buyers to drive prices higher. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- The yellow metal achieved new highs following the release of disappointing economic data in the last trading session. Notably, the US Industrial Production reported a 0.6% decrease, surpassing the anticipated 0.4% growth. Additionally, the Capacity Utilization Rate declined to 78.9% from 79.5%, and Unemployment Claims surged to 231K, well above the expected 221K. Today brought further developments as UK Retail Sales disappointed with a 0.3% drop, falling short of the anticipated 0.5% growth. In contrast, Eurozone Final CPI and Final Core CPI met expectations, while Current Account exceeded them. Looking ahead, Canada is set to release RMPI, IPPI, and Foreign Securities Purchases. However, the spotlight remains on US data, with Building Permits expected at 1.45M compared to the forecasted 1.47M, and Housing Starts potentially dropping to 1.35M from 1.36M. It’s worth noting that better-than-expected data may exert downward pressure on XAU/USD after its robust rally. Gold price technical analysis: From a technical standpoint, the XAU/USD has demonstrated accelerated growth subsequent to a successful retest of the median line (ml) and the breach of the upper median line (uml). Currently positioned within a demand zone, it confronts the 150% Fibonacci line, serving as a dynamic resistance. A breakthrough of this upward barrier, coupled with the negation of the supply zone, signals the potential for further upward momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The warning line (wl1) stands out as a noteworthy upside target should the current rate of growth persist. Conversely, a false breakout beyond the 150% Fibonacci line, accompanied by the formation of a robust bearish pattern within the supply zone, could herald a new sell-off. As such, vigilant monitoring of these key technical indicators is advised to comprehensively understand potential market movements. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gold-price-near-2000-as-greenback-stays-red-after-cpi/

2023-11-17 10:04

The pound continued its slide following a brief respite on Thursday. The dollar was weak after data increased bets for Fed rate cuts. Recent data revealed a notable cooling of British inflation in October. Friday’s GBP/USD price analysis shows a bearish tone persists as the pound continues its slide, following a brief respite on Thursday. This decline started after the poor UK inflation report. Similarly, the dollar was weak after recent data increased bets for Fed rate cuts. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Recent data revealed a notable cooling of British inflation in October. It marked its fastest decline in over 30 years. Moreover, it reinforced expectations of BoE interest rate cuts by mid-next year. However, the BoE emphasized it is far from reducing rates from their 15-year high, even as the economy hovers near a recession. Notably, Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden indicated Thursday that the Bank of England would likely maintain high interest rates for an extended period. Still, financial markets predict the BoE might commence rate cuts in May or June next year. Furthermore, three quarter-point cuts are anticipated by the end of 2024. Meanwhile, in the US, new claims for unemployment benefits rose to a three-month high. This indicates a gradual cooling of the labor market and supports the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation. Consequently, the dollar weakened against a basket of currencies, and US Treasury prices rose, nearing two-month lows. Additionally, the series of inflation-friendly data has led financial markets to anticipate an interest rate cut in May. Since March 2022, the Fed has raised its policy rate by 525 basis points. GBP/USD key events today The US building permits report for October. GBP/USD technical price analysis: Price moves to challenge the 1.2401 support level. The pound has declined from highs hit near the 1.2501 key level. The price is now attempting to breach the 1.2401 support level. However, bulls are still stronger as the price is above the 30-SMA. Additionally, the RSI is slightly above 50, supporting bullish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Bears must break below the 1.2401 support level and the 30-SMA for this bias to change. This would then signal a shift in sentiment to bearish. Moreover, it would allow the price to retest the 1.2300 level. However, if the bullish bias holds, the price will bounce off the SMA to a new high above the 1.2501 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-price-analysis-pound-resumes-its-post-inflation-slide/

2023-11-17 08:55

Oil was on course for its fourth consecutive week of declines. US unemployment benefit claims rose to 231,000, exceeding the expected 220,000. US industrial production declined by 0.6% in October. The USD/CAD outlook shines as the Canadian dollar softens amid lower oil prices, with the pair rising despite dollar weakness. On Friday, oil prices showed little change but were on course for their fourth consecutive week of declines. However, they dropped around 5% to a four-month low on Thursday due to concerns about global demand. This decline weighed heavily on the Canadian dollar. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Notably, this week’s decline in oil is primarily due to a significant increase in US crude inventories and record-level production. Consequently, there are worries about weak demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. Moreover, JPMorgan’s commodities research reported that its global oil demand tracker indicated an average demand of 101.6 million barrels daily in the first half of November. However, this figure is 200,000 bpd lower than the month’s projected demand. At the same time, analysts suggest the recent price drop may lead Saudi Arabia to extend its oil output cuts into 2024. Meanwhile, the US dollar was weak after a set of downbeat data. Unemployment benefit claims rose to 231,000, exceeding the expected 220,000 reading. Concurrently, industrial production declined by 0.6% month-on-month in October, with manufacturing output down 0.7%. ANZ noted, “Manufacturing output pointed to ongoing struggles in the sector. The lagged effects of monetary tightening are now feeding through. Furthermore, we expect moderation across output, labor, and inflation in the coming months and quarters.” Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook remarked Thursday that US economic risks were two-sided. Still, there is the possibility of a ‘soft landing.’ USD/CAD key events today The US building permits report USD/CAD technical outlook: Bulls take the lead above the 30-SMA. On the charts, the USD/CAD price is on the verge of crossing above the 30-SMA. This comes after bulls broke above the 1.3750 resistance level. At the same time, the RSI has crossed above 50, indicating a shift in sentiment to bullish. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The bulls might soon take charge. However, the price still trades in a larger scale range. There is almost equal strength for bulls and bears between the 1.3650 support and the 1.3851 resistance. Therefore, bulls must break above the 1.3851 resistance for the price to start trending. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-cad-outlook-oils-plunge-leaves-canadian-dollar-feeble/

2023-11-16 14:34

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