2023-12-01 14:08
The current sideways movement is seen as a bullish formation. The upper median line (uml) stands as an important upside target. The US data should bring high action today. The USD/JPY price is trading at 148.02 at the time of writing and looks overbought in the short term. After the recent rally, the pair may correct lower amid profit-taking. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- The price edged higher yesterday as the Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, and Unemployment Claims came in better than expected, while Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income, and Personal Spending aligned with expectations. Today, the price retreated a little as the Japanese Unemployment Rate came in at 2.5% versus 2.6% expected, Final Manufacturing PMI was reported higher at 48.3 points versus 48.1 points forecasted, while Capital Spending matched expectations. Later, the US data should move the market. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to jump from 46.7 points to 47.9 points, Final Manufacturing PMI could remain steady at 49.4 points, ISM Manufacturing Prices could jump to 46.1 points, while Construction Spending may announce a 0.4% growth again. In addition, the Fed Chair Powell’s speeches and the US Wards Total Vehicle Sales should have an impact. Technically, the USD/JPY price moves sideways, above the weekly S1 of 147.70, trying to accumulate more bullish energy before jumping higher. The current range could represent an accumulation, a bullish continuation pattern. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Still, only making a new higher high activates more gains ahead. The descending pitchfork’s upper median line represents the next major upside target. This stands as a dynamic resistance. A larger growth could be activated only after taking out this upside obstacle. I believe the upside continuation could be invalidated only if the rate makes a new lower low, if it drops and closes below the S1. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/01/usd-jpy-price-accumulating-bullish-energy-ahead-of-us-ism/
2023-12-01 10:30
Data revealed moderate growth in US consumer spending for October. Investors are awaiting comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later on Friday. Data revealed that Eurozone inflation experienced a more significant-than-expected decline. The EUR/USD price analysis unfolds as the dollar dips, allowing the euro to climb slightly after absorbing substantial overnight losses. Traders evaluated data revealing a drop in Eurozone inflation. Consequently, they are buzzing with expectations that interest rates may have reached their end. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, the dollar index had its weakest monthly performance in a year in November despite a 0.6% overnight surge. Thursday’s data revealed moderate growth in US consumer spending for October and the smallest annual increase in inflation in over 2-1/2 years. The eagerly anticipated PCE price index rose 3% in October compared to the previous year. It slowed from a three-month streak of 3.4% values. The value is still above the Fed’s 2% target. However, it is a new low that could please the Fed and reduce pressure for additional hikes. Investors will now shift their focus to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later on Friday. Traders will scrutinize every word for insights into the rate outlook. Carol Kong, a currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, anticipates Powell will reaffirm the possibility of further tightening. Moreover, he will likely temper expectations of rate cuts. In Europe, Thursday’s data revealed that Eurozone inflation experienced a more significant-than-expected decline for the third consecutive month in November. As a result, there are expectations of early spring rate cuts. The data resulted in a 0.7% decline in the euro on Thursday. EUR/USD key events today The US ISM manufacturing PMI A speech from Fed Chair Powell EUR/USD technical price analysis: Bears take over after bearish RSI divergence The bearish RSI divergence on the 4-hour chart played out, leading to a shift in sentiment for EUR/USD. The bulls were no longer strong enough to continue the uptrend. As a result, bears emerged with bigger candles, showing strong momentum. It was clear the trend had reversed when the price broke below the support trendline and the 30-SMA. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- At the same time, the RSI fell below 50, confirming that bears were stronger than bulls. Currently, the price is heading for the next support level at 1.0851. The final step for bears to confirm a downtrend will be a series of lower lows and highs. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/01/eur-usd-price-analysis-euro-struggling-after-overnight-losses/
2023-12-01 09:34
US consumer spending moderately increased in October. The US PCE price index in October showed a slower 3% rise from a year ago. The Canadian economy contracted at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the third quarter. Heading into Friday, the USD/CAD outlook is bearish, riding the waves of continued dollar weakness. This bearish move came after Thursday’s data unveiled a weakening trend in US inflation for October. US consumer spending moderately increased in October. Meanwhile, the annual inflation rise was the smallest in over 2 1/2 years. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Notably, the eagerly anticipated personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index in October showed a 3% rise from a year ago. It was a slowdown from a three-month streak of 3.4% readings. However, it is still above the Fed’s 2% target. Federal Reserve policymakers indicated on Thursday that the US central bank’s interest rate hikes are likely concluded. Still, they kept the option open for further monetary policy tightening if progress on inflation falters. Market indicators show a 97% likelihood of the Fed maintaining rates in its December meeting. Moreover, there’s a 46% chance of a rate cut in March next year, compared to a 27% chance the previous week. Surprisingly, the Canadian economy shrank at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the third quarter, avoiding a recession. However, the data revealed growth weakening before the upcoming interest-rate decision. The economy sidestepped a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarter-on-quarter contractions. USD/CAD key events today Canada’s employment change Canada’s unemployment rate US ISM manufacturing PMI Fed Chair Powell’s speech USD/CAD technical outlook: RSI reflects weaker bearish momentum Price action and indicators on the 4-hour chart point to a bearish bias for USD/CAD. Notably, the price has made lower highs and lows, indicating a downtrend. Initially, bears paused at the 1.3550 support level, where the price was oversold. It led to a pullback to the 30-SMA, where bulls challenged the downtrend. However, bearish momentum was still strong, as the price made a bearish engulfing candle from the SMA. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Consequently, the price fell and broke below the 1.3550 support. Still, a closer look at the RSI shows weaker bearish momentum. Although bears made a new low, the RSI made a higher low, indicating a divergence. However, bears will only lose control if the price breaks above the SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/01/usd-cad-outlook-bearish-amid-optimistic-canadian-gdp/
2023-11-30 12:58
The bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the R2. Taking out the static support opens the door for more declines. The US data should have a major impact today. The gold price is trading in the red at $2,036 at the time of writing. The price turned downside as the US dollar found the bottom and bounced off. The US Prelim GDP, Prelim GDP Price Index, and Prelim Wholesale Inventories came in better than expected. The Dollar Index edges higher as the US economy shows robustness. USD’s further appreciation should force the XAU/USD to drop significantly. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Today, the Chinese Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.4 points versus the expected 49.8 points, confirming the contraction. In comparison, the Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.2 points from 50.6 points, even if the traders expected a potential growth of 50.9 points. Australia, Japan, and the Eurozone reported mixed data. Still, the traders changed their focus to the United States data. The Core PCE Price Index may report a 0.2% growth, Unemployment Claims could be reported at 219K in the last week, Chicago PMI is expected at 46.0 points, while Pending Home Sales could announce a 1.9% drop. In addition, Personal Spending and Pending Income data will be released as well. Poor economic data could help the XAU/USD to resume its growth. Technically, the XAU/USD found resistance at the ascending pitchfork’s upper median line (uml). Now, it moves sideways in the short term. However, the bias remains bullish if it stays above the weekly R2 of $2,034. This stands as a static support. Testing it and registering only false breakdowns could announce a new bullish momentum. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- On the contrary, taking out the R2 opens the door for a downward movement towards the R1 (2,018) and down to the median line (ml). https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/11/30/gold-price-pause-rally-by-mid-2000-after-upbeat-us-gdp/
2023-11-30 10:49
US gross domestic product expanded at a 5.2% annualized rate in the last quarter. There is an increased likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March. German inflation data indicated a slowdown to 2.3% in November. Today’s EUR/USD forecast presents a bearish outlook as the dollar stages a comeback from its three-month lows. This reversal comes on the heels of higher-than-expected growth in the US economy in the third quarter. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- US gross domestic product expanded at a 5.2% annualized rate in the last quarter, exceeding the initially reported 4.9%. Moreover, this marked the fastest expansion since the fourth quarter of 2021. Economists had anticipated a growth revision to 5.0%. Following the GDP data, futures showed an increased likelihood of a rate cut starting in March. There is an almost 50% chance of easing, compared to nearly 35% late on Tuesday. The dollar gained against the euro. However, it is set to record its most significant monthly decline since November 2022. This is due to increasing expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the first half of 2024. Markets eagerly anticipate Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s response to comments made by Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday. Notably, Waller hinted at a possible rate cut in the coming months. Consequently, there was a slide in US bond yields and the dollar. Meanwhile, the euro declined against the dollar after German inflation data on Wednesday indicated a slowdown to 2.3% year-on-year in November from 3% in October. Similarly, inflation in Spain experienced a sharp deceleration. EUR/USD key events today Eurozone CPI US core PCE price index US pending home sales EUR/USD technical forecast: Resistance at 1.1000 prompts pullback The EUR/USD price turned south, breaking the key support of 1.0950. The pair has closed below the 20-period and 50-period SMAs. The next stop for the sellers lies at 1.0860, which was the previous rejection zone and the 100-period SMA. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Alternatively, if the price retraces back above the today’s top, we will assume the resumption of a downtrend after a corrective downside move. However, the probability of the downside seems higher. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/11/30/eur-usd-forecast-dollar-recovers-on-robust-us-gdp-growth/
2023-11-30 10:28
The dollar rebounded from a three-month low. Data indicating faster-than-expected growth in the US economy. The BoC revealed skepticism about the benefits of a potential digital currency. As Thursday unfolded, the USD/CAD outlook took on a bullish tone, driven by a dollar rebound from a three-month low. However, the dollar was poised to mark its most substantial monthly decline in a year. Investors increased bets that the Fed would refrain from further rate hikes. Moreover, they awaited a crucial inflation report later in the day. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Notably, the dollar fell by 3.7% in November amid growing expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in the first half of 2024. However, the dollar recovered some losses on Wednesday following upbeat data on growth in the US economy. Attention will be paid on Friday when Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak. This will follow remarks by Fed Governor Christopher Waller flagging a possible rate cut in the coming months. However, before that, investors will focus on the critical Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index. US futures markets are currently pricing over 100 basis points of rate cuts next year, starting in May. Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada (BoC) revealed on Wednesday that most financial institutions expressed skepticism about the benefits of a potential digital currency. Like many other countries, Canada is exploring a digital version of its currency. This move prevents digital payments from being left solely to the private sector. Notably, the COVID-19 pandemic has reduced the use of cash. As part of this initiative, the BoC consulted civil society groups, focus groups, financial institutions, and the general public to assess support and the viability of a digital Canadian dollar. USD/CAD key events today US core PCE price index report US pending home sales report US unemployment claims Canadian GDP USD/CAD technical outlook: Bulls resurface after the 1.3550 support level The price has recovered on the charts after finding support at the 1.3550 support level. However, the bias remains bearish since the rebound is below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI indicates strong bearish momentum as it trades below 50. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Bulls are heading for the 30-SMA resistance, which has stopped them many times in the downtrend. Therefore, the price will likely reverse at the SMA, allowing bears to continue the downtrend. Still, there is a chance bulls will break above the SMA and the 1.3650 level to reverse the trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/11/30/usd-cad-outlook-finding-bottom-at-3-month-lows/
