2023-11-27 12:04
The bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the 150% line. A new higher high activates further growth. The US data could bring action on XAU/USD. The gold price rallied to a new higher high of $2,018. The precious metal has retreated a little and is trading at $2,014 at the time of writing. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- The greenback’s downside continuation helped the XAU/USD to extend its growth. The bias is bullish, so further gains are on the cards. Fundamentally, the yellow metal reached fresh highs as the US Flash Manufacturing PMI came in worse than expected on Friday, at 49.4 points versus 49.9 points expected, confirming contraction. Today, the US New Home Sales is expected to drop from 759K to 724K. Poor economic data should weaken the greenback and could help the XAU/USD to hit new highs. On the contrary, positive data could save the USD from the downside, while the price of gold may drop again. Also, ECB President Lagarde’s Speaks could have a significant impact. The US CB Consumer Confidence is seen as a high-impact event and may bring sharp movements tomorrow. The HPI and the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI data will be released as well. From the technical point of view, the XAU/USD rallied after coming back above the upper median line (UML) of the ascending pitchfork. The metal has ignored the 150% Fibonacci line, reaching the warning line (wl1). This represents a dynamic resistance, and the rate printed only a false breakout with great separation, signaling exhausted buyers. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Still, the bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the 150% Fibonacci line and the former high of $2,007. A small consolidation above these immediate support levels may announce an upside continuation. However, a new higher high may activate further growth. On the other hand, dropping below the short-term support levels could trigger a correction. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/11/27/gold-price-stalls-at-2018-eying-us-new-home-sales-data/
2023-11-27 09:48
A modest rise in services sector activity offset a contraction in manufacturing. The dollar is set for its weakest monthly performance in a year. Data confirmed a 0.1% contraction in Germany’s economy in the third quarter. The EUR/USD outlook paints a bullish picture at the start of a new week as the euro holds steady, building on the momentum from Friday’s surge amid a weakened dollar. The dollar’s decline followed a mixed PMI report, creating an optimistic landscape for the Euro against the USD. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Notably, S&P Global reported a modest rise in services sector activity, offsetting a contraction in manufacturing. However, the survey’s employment index dropped to 49.7 in the first contraction since June 2020, down from 51.3 in October. Consequently, the dollar was weak on Friday. Furthermore, the dollar is set for its weakest monthly performance in the year. It is due to growing expectations that the Fed is done with raising interest rates and may start cutting them next year. Separately, data on Friday confirmed a 0.1% contraction in Germany’s economy in the third quarter. Ruth Brand, president of the statistics office, noted, “The German economy started the second half of the year with a slight drop in performance.” Moreover, facing challenges like high energy costs and higher interest rates, Germany has been one of Europe’s weakest economies this year. Additionally, the Bundesbank’s monthly economic report predicted a likely contraction in the German economy in Q4. However, there might be a slight improvement early next year. Meanwhile, German business morale improved in November. EUR/USD key events today A new home sales report from the US A building permits report from the US EUR/USD technical outlook: Bearish divergence points to potential price drop On the technical side, the EUR/USD bulls are back in control after a false break below the 30-SMA. The price initially rose to the 1.0950 resistance level, where it paused, and bears resurfaced. Surprisingly, bears were strong enough to puncture the 30-SMA support. However, this downward momentum did not last as bears failed to sustain a move lower. Consequently, bulls returned and took back control by breaking above the 30-SMA. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Currently, the price is facing 1.0950 resistance again. Moreover, the RSI is showing weaker bullish momentum. The price will likely fall to 1.0851 if the bearish divergence plays out. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/11/27/eur-usd-outlook-euro-holds-firm-after-fridays-surge/
2023-11-27 08:19
British companies reported unexpected growth in November. The dollar is heading for a monthly loss of over 3%. Market pricing indicates a 23% chance that the Fed may cut rates as early as March next year. Monday’s GBP/USD forecast turned decidedly bullish, kicking off the week with optimism as the pound surged to a two-month high, building on the momentum from the previous week. This upward trajectory was fueled by a surprising surge in growth reported by British companies in November, breaking a three-month contraction streak. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- As such, Carol Kong, a currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, noted, “This indicates the resilience of the UK economy despite the very aggressive monetary policy tightening from the Bank of England. However, we still anticipate the UK economy weakening and going through a short-lived recession.” Moreover, the pound was set for a roughly 3.8% gain for the month, its most substantial monthly increase in a year. Meanwhile, the dollar index slipped by 0.12% to 103.31. It was heading for a monthly loss of over 3%, marking its worst performance in a year. CPI inflation rates across much of the G10 remain above central bank targets. Consequently, there is a strong incentive for policymakers to support the ‘higher for longer’ theme. Additionally, higher market rates will help in the battle against inflation. However, investors are looking beyond this policy and seem increasingly focused on speculating about the timing and pace of rate cuts next year. Market pricing indicates a 23% chance that the Fed may commence easing monetary policy as early as March next year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. GBP/USD key events today US building permits report US new home sales report GBP/USD technical forecast: Bulls charge ahead, RSI signals overbought levels The pound is bullish, trading well above the 30-SMA and the RSI overbought. Moreover, the price has made higher highs and lows while respecting the 30-SMA as support. It shows a well-developed trend that might continue higher. The price is currently above the 1.2600 level and might reach 1.2651. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- However, with the RSI overbought, we might see bulls pause for a breath. Consequently, the price might consolidate or pull back to retest the 30-SMA support. Still, the bullish trend has upside potential. Therefore, bulls will likely push beyond the 1.2651 level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-forecast-pound-extends-gains-to-a-two-month-high/
2023-11-25 18:30
Core consumer price growth in Japan increased slightly in October. The BOJ might withdraw monetary stimulus soon due to persistent inflation. The dollar was generally weak as investors held on to the belief that the Fed was done hiking. The USD/JPY weekly forecast suggests a bearish inclination as Japan’s inflation surge signals a potential shift in the BOJ’s policy, setting the stage for the yen to regain strength. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Ups and downs of USD/JPY USD/JPY fell but closed the week nearly flat. The decline came as the yen strengthened after core consumer price growth in Japan increased slightly in October. Consequently, it strengthened expectations that the Bank of Japan might withdraw monetary stimulus soon due to persistent inflation. On Friday, Tatsuo Yamasaki, a former leading Japanese currency official, said he anticipates minimal yen weakening from the current 150 against the dollar. Additionally, he predicts a potential strengthening of the yen next year. Furthermore, he believes the Bank of Japan might abandon its negative interest rate policy in April. Meanwhile, the dollar was generally weak as investors held on to the belief that the Fed was done hiking. Next week’s key events for USD/JPY Important data next week will come from the US, including GDP and manufacturing PMI. These reports will give a clear picture of the economy amid high interest rates. The GDP report will show whether the economy grew or contracted. Meanwhile, the PMI report will show business activity in the manufacturing sector. Notably, recent data has shown that high interest rates implemented by the Federal Reserve have started cooling the economy. If this trend continues next week, investors will likely increase bets for Fed rate cuts. Consequently, the dollar will suffer, and the USD/JPY will continue to decline. USD/JPY weekly technical forecast: Bulls retreat, bears advance On the charts, the USD/JPY price has gone from bullish to bearish. The previous bullish bias stopped at the 151.75 resistance level. Although bulls tried twice to push above the resistance, they failed. As such, bears took control by breaking below the 22-SMA. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- At the same time, the RSI went below 50, signaling a shift in sentiment. Now that bears have momentum, the price will likely continue lower next week. At the moment, the price has pulled back to retest the SMA after finding support at the 148.02 level. There is a high chance the 22-SMA will hold firm as resistance, pushing the price lower. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-weekly-forecast-uptick-cpi-sparks-policy-debate/
2023-11-25 18:30
There was optimism that the Federal Reserve’s hiking cycle was done. Data revealed a larger-than-expected drop in Americans filing new jobless claims. Fed meeting minutes revealed a cautious stance toward monetary policy. The EUR/USD weekly forecast is shaped by a bullish trend, propelled by the weakening of the dollar amid optimism surrounding the Fed’s pause. Consequently, this has led traders to expect potential rate cuts. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Ups and downs of EUR/USD Although the EUR/USD ended higher for the week, it barely moved due to the US Thanksgiving holiday. However, the primary catalysts were the Fed minutes and data from the US. The dollar fell amid optimism that the Federal Reserve’s hiking cycle was done. Moreover, the economy remains strong enough to avoid a recession. Economic reports on jobless claims, durable goods, and consumer sentiment showed an easing but suggested the economy could stay robust enough for a soft landing. Meanwhile, the minutes from the Fed’s last meeting revealed a cautious stance toward monetary policy. Nevertheless, market participants are starting to prepare for rate cuts. Next week’s key event for EUR/USD Next week, crucial data from the US, including GDP and manufacturing PMI, will provide insight into the economy. Notably, the GDP report will reveal whether the economy expanded or contracted, while the PMI report will indicate manufacturing sector business activity. This week, there was an increase in bets for Fed rate cuts due to recent downbeat data from the US. Still, Fed minutes showed the Fed would remain resilient though cautious in its fight against inflation. Therefore, if data next week comes in lower than expected, there might be an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts. It would also result in more dollar depreciation. EUR/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls rally to 1.0950 resistance On the technical side, the EUR/USD price is bullish, and the price has risen to the 1.0950 resistance level. Further supporting the bullish bias is the RSI trades near the overbought region. Moreover, the bulls are finally making strong swings away from the 22-SMA. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- In the coming week, bulls might experience some resistance at the 1.0950, resulting in a pullback. However, given the bullish bias, the price will likely pause at the 22-SMA, which acts as support in the uptrend. Nevertheless, if bulls are strong enough, the price will break above 1.0950 without pulling back. This move would then allow bulls to retest the 1.1100 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-feds-pause-leads-dollar-down/
2023-11-24 09:47
There was an uptick in Japan’s core consumer price growth. The dollar has declined by 2.8% for the month, heading for its weakest monthly performance. Japan’s factory activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in November. The USD/JPY price analysis on Friday suggested a subtle bearish sentiment, with the yen gaining strength in response to an increase in Japan’s core consumer price growth. This upward trend further bolstered the anticipation that the Bank of Japan could potentially withdraw its monetary stimulus in the near future. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Notably, Japan’s core consumer price growth slightly increased in October, countering the previous month’s drop. Consequently, investors expect persistent inflation to push the Bank of Japan to scale back its monetary stimulus soon. At the same time, ING economists anticipate the BOJ to shift away from its dovish stance next year. The Japanese yen strengthened by 0.21% to 149.23 per dollar, gradually recovering from the near 33-year low of 151.92. Additionally, it has seen a 1.5% increase for the month. Furthermore, a business survey on Friday revealed that Japan’s factory activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in November. Japan’s economy remains fragile amid weak demand and inflation. Meanwhile, the dollar fell 0.058% to 103.71, remaining close to the two-and-a-half-month low of 103.17 earlier in the week. Moreover, the dollar has declined by 2.8% for the month, heading for its weakest monthly performance in a year. This decline was due to growing expectations that the Fed would conclude its interest rate hikes and start rate cuts next year. However, market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2024 have decreased. At the moment, futures indicate a 26% chance of a rate cut at the March 2024 policy meeting. It is down from a 33% chance the previous week. USD/JPY key events today The US S&P Global Services PMI (Nov) USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bulls struggle to sever ties with the 30-SMA On the technical side, the USD/JPY price trades between the 149.00 support and the 150.01 resistance level. This move comes after bulls took over by pushing the price above the 149.00 level and the 30-SMA. Moreover, the RSI has risen above 50 to support solid bullish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- However, the price is still pulling back to retest the SMA and is yet to make a big bullish swing. Therefore, to confirm the new bullish trend, bulls must detach from the 30-SMA and take out the 150.01 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-price-analysis-yen-gains-on-japans-inflation-uptick/
