2023-11-09 09:43

The ECB’s chief economist expressed dissatisfaction with the progress in controlling inflation. Eurozone inflation dropped to 2.9% last month. ECB’s Lane projected a steady or potentially increasing price growth next year. Thursday’s EUR/USD outlook painted a bullish picture, with the euro making strides against the dollar. The rally was set ablaze by the hawkish remarks from European policymakers. For instance, the European Central Bank’s chief economist expressed dissatisfaction with the progress in controlling inflation. Notably, the ECB paused rate hikes last month. Consequently, there has been growing speculation among investors that the next move could be a cut. This shift comes as consumer price growth has retreated to below 3%. However, policymakers sought to reduce any excitement about the falling inflation, emphasizing that the overall picture was mixed. Moreover, some argued against ruling out the possibility of further rate hikes. On Wednesday, Ireland’s central bank chief, Gabriel Makhlouf, suggested that further interest rate hikes were still possible. Meanwhile, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel acknowledged that reaching the inflation target might be the most challenging phase. Rabobank senior strategist Jane Foley noted a divergence between market and central bankers’ expectations of future rate cuts. There is resistance from many policymakers to such speculation. Furthermore, Foley highlighted that policymakers are likely to maintain the possibility of additional tightening, especially if inflation remains above the target. A sharp drop in market rates could increase inflationary risks. Inflation dropped to 2.9% last month from its previous level of over 10% a year earlier. However, ECB chief economist Philip Lane projected a steady or potentially increasing price growth next year. EUR/USD key events today On the calendar today are events from the US, including, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. The initial jobless claims report. EUR/USD technical outlook: Price rebounds from 30-SMA support. The EUR/USD price found support at the 30-SMA line and is bouncing higher. Similarly, the RSI is climbing after finding support at the 50 level. Bulls are regaining their momentum after a retracement to the 1.0675 key level. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- The next step for bulls will be to make a new high. It means retesting and breaking above the 1.0750 resistance level. However, if the 1.0750 resistance holds firm, bears will likely retest the 30-SMA support. Still, the bullish bias will stay as long as the price holds above the SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-outlook-euro-rises-on-wings-of-hawkish-ecb/

2023-11-09 08:54

Some BoC policymakers advocated for more interest rate hikes at the last meeting. Oil fell due to concerns about reduced demand in the US and China. Money markets anticipate the BoC to start cutting rates as early as April. Thursday saw the continuation of the bullish USD/CAD forecast as the Canadian dollar struggled, weakened by the aftermath of Wednesday’s oil price dip. Despite hawkish minutes from the Bank of Canada’s recent meeting, this weakness came. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the Canadian dollar has closed lower for three consecutive days, following its most significant weekly gain since March last week. Meanwhile, oil, a significant Canadian export, settled 2.6% lower. This decline came amid concerns about reduced demand in the US and China, contributing to a more than 6% decrease since the week began. Elsewhere, a Reuters poll revealed that the Canadian dollar will strengthen less than initially anticipated over the next year. Furthermore, a slowdown in the domestic economy might open the possibility of interest rate cuts. However, the minutes from the Bank of Canada’s October 25 meeting were slightly hawkish. Some governing council members foresaw the potential need for additional interest rate hikes. Still, money markets anticipate the Canadian central bank to start lowering its benchmark interest rate, possibly as early as April. It follows the decision to maintain it at a 22-year high of 5% for the second consecutive time during the October policy meeting. USD/CAD key events today Traders are focused on key US events below, as Canada will not release significant economic reports. Initial jobless claims report. Fed Chair Powell’s speech. USD/CAD technical forecast: Rally hits a wall at 1.3800. On the charts, the USD/CAD rally has paused at the 1.3800 key level. However, the bullish bias is still strong, with the price well above the SMA and the RSI above 50. The pair experienced a sudden reversal that saw bulls take control by pushing the price above the 1.3750 level and the 30-SMA. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- At the same time, the RSI went from the oversold region to bullish territory above 50. The pause at 1.3800 has allowed bears to resurface. It might lead to a retracement to retest recently broken levels, including the 30-SMA and the 1.3750 level. Still, bulls will likely break above 1.3800 if the price stays above the SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-cad-forecast-weaker-oil-to-weigh-on-loonie/

2023-11-08 11:07

The bias remains bullish despite the last sell-off. Taking out the upper median line (uml) validates further growth. False breakouts may announce a new leg down. The USD/JPY price has recently embarked on a formidable upward trajectory, now resting at the significant level of 150.70. This bullish inclination persists despite minor fluctuations in the short term. However, it is imperative to exercise prudence and await confirmation, as the US dollar may only be experiencing a corrective upside move. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Fundamentally, the currency pair has displayed a notable gain, even in the face of better-than-expected results from Japanese Average Cash Earnings and Household Spending, juxtaposed with disappointing figures from the US Trade Balance in the previous trading session. Today’s data reveals that Japanese Leading Indicators have come in at 108.7%, slightly below the anticipated 108.8%. Additionally, the financial world is keenly watching as Federal Reserve Chair Powell is scheduled to address the public—a high-impact event that could send ripples through the markets. Moreover, the Final Wholesale Inventories report and speeches from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members hold the potential to inject further dynamism into the trading landscape. Looking ahead, Japan is set to release several key economic indicators tomorrow, including Economy Watchers Sentiment, Current Account data, the Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions, and Bank Lending statistics. Concurrently, the United States will be closely monitoring developments, as US Unemployment Claims data and another address by Federal Reserve Chair Powell are expected to wield substantial influence on market dynamics. USD/JPY Price Technical Analysis: Leg Higher From a technical standpoint, the USD/JPY pair has encountered robust support just below the median line (ml), prompting a notable upward surge in its trajectory. It currently finds itself in a position to challenge the upper median line (uml) of the descending pitchfork, which serves as a dynamic resistance level. A decisive breakout from this resistance is poised to set the stage for further upward momentum, while any false breakouts may signify a potential reversal and subsequent decline. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- It’s worth noting that the weekly R1 at 151.10 looms as a significant barrier to upward movement should the exchange rate continue its rise. However, given the remarkable surge observed thus far, it remains prudent to acknowledge the probability of a temporary retracement. This would allow the price to gather additional bullish momentum before embarking on its next leg higher. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-price-challenges-dynamic-resistance-eying-fomc/

2023-11-08 09:47

Fed’s Christopher Waller highlighted the remarkable third-quarter US economic growth. Michelle Bowman noted that the US economy remains robust. British consumer spending last month saw its slowest growth in over a year. The dollar strengthened on Wednesday, casting a shadow of bearishness on the GBP/USD forecast as traders contemplated the likelihood of an impending US interest rate hike. Meanwhile, investors were anticipating remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- On Tuesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller highlighted the remarkable third-quarter US economic growth as a factor to monitor in the central bank’s deliberations on future policy decisions. Notably, the value hit an annualized rate of 4.9%, Furthermore, his comments prompted a fellow Fed official to explicitly call for another rate hike. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman interpreted the recent GDP data as evidence that the US economy not only remained robust but may have even accelerated. Consequently, it might necessitate a higher Fed policy rate. Meanwhile, British consumer spending last month saw its slowest growth in over a year, as indicated in a Tuesday survey. Barclays reported a 2.6% increase in spending on their debit and credit cards from September 24 to October 21 compared to the previous year. It represents the smallest annual rise since September 2022. Moreover, it is a decline from the 4.2% growth seen in the previous month. Additionally, when adjusted for a 6.7% consumer price inflation in September, the actual volume of goods and services purchased by British consumers decreased. GBP/USD key events today The UK will not release major economic reports today. Therefore, investors will focus on key events from the US, including, Fed Chair Powell’s speech. GBP/USD technical forecast: RSI highlights waning bullish momentum. The pound’s decline from the 1.2401 key level has paused at the 30-SMA support. Similarly, the RSI shows that bulls have lost momentum as it rests on the pivotal 50 mark. 50 is a pivotal level because it separates strength in bulls and bears. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Therefore, if the RSI stays above 50 and the price above the 30-SMA, there is support for further upside in the pair. However, if it goes below 50 and the price breaks below the SMA, bears will take over. Still, the bullish bias remains, so the price will likely soon break above 1.2300 to retest the 1.2401 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-forecast-dollar-recovers-after-feds-remarks/

2023-11-08 08:10

Various Federal Reserve speakers hinted at the possibility of imminent rate hikes. Traders are awaiting a speech from Chair Jerome Powell. Futures suggest a roughly 17% chance of another Fed rate hike by January. In Wednesday’s EUR/USD price analysis, a bearish tone dominated the scene as the dollar staged a comeback. This resurgence came in the wake of various Federal Reserve speakers who hinted at the possibility of imminent rate hikes. At the same time, traders awaited a speech from Chair Jerome Powell regarding the central bank’s future policy direction. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Notably, the greenback experienced a drop last week following the Fed’s decision to maintain its policy rate. Moreover, there were signs of a cooling US labor market. However, it stabilized as the market remained uncertain about whether US interest rates had reached their peak. Additionally, there is uncertainty about how soon the Fed might consider easing monetary conditions. Several Federal Reserve policymakers maintained a neutral tone on Tuesday while assessing the need for additional rate hikes. Futures suggest a roughly 17% chance of another rate hike by January. However, they also indicate a 21% likelihood of rate cuts as early as March, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Attention now shifts to remarks from Fed Chair Powell later on Wednesday. Simpson commented, “There’s a risk that we might observe further strength in the US dollar today if Powell and others continue to emphasize their ‘higher for longer’ outlook.” Meanwhile, the euro faced pressure due to weak German data reported on Tuesday. Data revealed a larger-than-expected decrease in German industrial production in September. EUR/USD key events today All focus today will be on one major event from the US. Fed Chair Powell’s speech. EUR/USD technical price analysis: Bears test a solid support zone. The EUR/USD price has dipped to a solid support zone comprising the 30-SMA and the 1.0675 support level. On the other hand, the RSI has fallen to the pivotal 50 mark. However, this decline comes in an uptrend where the price has made higher highs. Therefore, the pullback might make a higher low if the support zone holds firm. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, it would allow bulls to rechallenge the 1.0750 resistance level for a new high. However, if bears are strong enough to breach the support zone, the price will likely decline to 1.0600. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-price-analysis-fed-fuels-rate-hike-speculation/

2023-11-07 13:20

The bias is bearish if it stays below the median line (ml). Taking out the 1,959 activates more declines. A strong bullish formation within the demand zone indicates a new bullish momentum. The gold price slumped in the short term on Tuesday as the US dollar rebounded. The precious metal is currently trading at $1,968 and is under heavy pressure. After the recent swing higher, a correction is natural, and the USD may have been oversold despite the recent poor US data. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Fundamentally, the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a 25-bps hike as expected. Later today, the US Trade Balance is expected to come in at -59.7 billion, versus -58.3 billion in the previous reporting period. The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index is expected to jump from 36.3 points to 40.2 points, while Consumer Credit could be reported at 8.8 billion, versus -15.6 billion. In addition, the FOMC members’ speeches could bring high action as well. Tomorrow, BOE Governor Bailey and Fed Chair Powell are scheduled to speak, which could have a big impact on the gold price in the short term. Positive US data could help the USD to appreciate and may bring more sellers to the XAU/USD pair. However, after the recent strong drop, buyers could jump in again. The DXY rebounded today, but this could be only temporary after the recent leg down. Overall, the gold price is in a short-term correction, but buyers could jump in again if the USD weakens further. Traders should keep an eye on the upcoming US data and the speeches from BOE Governor Bailey and Fed Chair Powell for further direction. Gold Price Technical Analysis: Bearish Dominance The gold price crashed below dynamic support, signaling that a larger correction could be in the making. Buyers are exhausted, and sellers are in control, with the price now trading below the median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Traders are closely watching the price action at the current demand zone above the $1,959 level. If the price fails to hold above this level, it could extend its downward movement. However, a strong bullish formation within the current demand zone or false breakdowns with great separation could indicate that the correction could be over. A larger correction could be activated after taking out the $1,959 support. Traders are advised to be cautious and to manage their risk carefully. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gold-price-hits-support-at-1959-as-greenback-recovers/