2023-11-10 10:18
The British economy avoided a recession in the third quarter. The dollar held steady after hawkish remarks from US Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The UK economy experienced a 0.2% growth in September. The GBP/USD price analysis on Friday displayed a modest bullish trend, with the British pound making a measured recovery. This uptick followed the release of data indicating that the UK economy narrowly evaded a recession in the third quarter. However, the US dollar’s continued strength limited the pound’s upside. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Britain’s sluggish economy showed no growth in the July-to-September period. Notably, there was a 0% change in gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter. It was contrary to the anticipated 0.1% decline in a Reuters poll of economists. Moreover, such a decline could have marked the beginning of a recession. Meanwhile, the economy experienced a 0.2% growth in September alone. Furthermore, the report revised downward to 0.1% the figure for August, initially reported at 0.2%. The figure was a positive surprise as the Reuters poll had predicted no change in GDP for September. Additionally, the ONS highlighted that Britain’s economy was 1.8% above its late 2019 level. It shows a post-COVID recovery stronger than Germany’s but significantly lagging behind the United States. The US economy has expanded by over 7% from its pre-pandemic state. Meanwhile, the dollar held steady after hawkish remarks from US Fed Chair Jerome Powell reduced hopes for an interest rate peak. On Thursday, Powell and other US Federal Reserve officials said they were uncertain about whether interest rates have reached a level that keeps inflation low. GBP/USD key events today The pair will likely keep moving in response to the UK GDP data, as there are no other significant events for the day. GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bearish bias emerges as price breaks 30-SMA barrier. The bias for GBP/USD price on the 4-hour chart is bearish as the price has dipped below the 30-SMA. Additionally, the RSI now trades in bearish territory below 50. Bears took over and broke below the 1.2300 key level. Then, the price retested this level before dropping. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Currently, the price is approaching the 1.2200 support level, and bears look strong enough to break below. A break below this level would strengthen the new bias as the price would start making lower lows. Furthermore, bears will target the next support level at 1.2100. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-price-analysis-rebounds-as-uk-avoids-recession/
2023-11-10 09:22
Remarks from Fed officials dampened expectations of a peak in US rates. The dollar hovered close to a one-year high against the yen on Friday. The dollar is heading for a weekly gain of approximately 1.3% against the yen. The USD/JPY outlook turned bullish as the greenback gained strength from Fed hawks and rising bond yields. This surge followed remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and several other Fed officials that dampened expectations of a peak in US rates. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Markedly, Powell and others expressed uncertainty about whether interest rates are sufficiently high to combat inflation. As a result, the dollar hovered close to a one-year high at 151.355 yen on Friday. Moreover, the dollar’s surge after Powell’s remarks followed a momentary upward spike due to a poor auction of 30-year Treasury bonds. This auction resulted in higher yields across various Treasury maturities. These statements from Fed officials came a week after the US central bank left interest rates unchanged, solidifying the belief that rates might have peaked. Consequently, the dollar and Treasury yields fell in the aftermath. However, the greenback recovered this week and was poised for a weekly gain of approximately 1.3% against the yen, marking its best performance since August. Meanwhile, traders will keep an eye on the Japanese yen, especially as it maintains a position above the 150 level against the US dollar. It raises the possibility of intervention by Japanese authorities. USD/JPY key events today The pair will likely end the week quietly as there are no key events from the US or Japan today. USD/JPY technical outlook: Bullish momentum approaches 151.51 resistance. On the charts, the USD/JPY price has broken above the 150.75 resistance level. It is currently approaching the 151.51 resistance level, where it might pause. The surge has strengthened the bullish bias by pushing the price well above the 30-SMA. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- At the same time, the RSI currently trades near the overbought region, indicating solid bullish momentum. However, this might also mean that bulls need to rest before continuing higher. If the 151.51 resistance is firm, bears will likely trigger a retracement to retest the 150.75 key level. Afterwards, bulls might make a new high above 151.51. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-outlook-bulls-gaining-amid-hawkish-fed/
2023-11-09 15:48
The bearish pressure is high after failing to stay above the 1.23 psychological level. The UK data should move the rate tomorrow. The warning line (wl1) stands as the next downside target. In a dramatic turn of events, the GBP/USD price is currently in the red zone, showing a strong inclination towards hitting fresh lows. As of now, it stands at 1.2262, and all eyes are on its journey in the trading arena. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The main culprit behind this downward trend is the DXY’s current rally, compelling the greenback to pull the pair further down. The Dollar Index’s bullish bias in the short term is intensifying the downside pressure, making traders and investors closely watch the market dynamics. In the latest update on the UK front, the RICS House Price Balance has been reported at -63%, slightly better than the expected -65% and an improvement from the previous -67%. This news, however, might not be enough to counter the strong retreat prompted by the Dollar’s dominance. Looking ahead, all eyes are on the US Unemployment Claims indicator, which could potentially jump to 218K in the last week, up from 217K in the previous period. The imminent speech by Fed Chair Powell is also sending shockwaves through the market, creating an atmosphere of anticipation and uncertainty. But the real game-changer could be on the horizon. Tomorrow, the UK is set to release a slew of crucial economic data, including GDP, Prelim GDP, Goods Trade Balance, Construction Output, Index of Services, Industrial Production, and Manufacturing Production. Simultaneously, the US will publish the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment data. The outcome of these releases has the power to shift market sentiments and potentially rescue the Pound from its current downward spiral. GBP/USD price technical analysis: Bears turning strong In a technical twist, the GBP/USD pair is grappling with challenges as it struggles to find stability above the ascending pitchfork’s warning line (wl1). This is a clear signal of weary buyers, indicating a shift in market dynamics. Adding to the complexity, the pair has now slipped below the lower median line (lml), sounding the alarm for a potential downside reversal. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- A closer look at the hourly chart reveals that the rate has not only breached the lower median line but has also tested the broken line, solidifying the breakdown. The next hurdle in its downward journey is the downside warning line (wl1), which serves as both a target and an obstacle. The extent of the drop hinges on a valid breakdown through this dynamic support. The pressure on the downside has intensified, especially after the pair’s failure to sustain itself above the psychologically significant 1.2300 level and the weekly pivot point of 1.2290. These setbacks have contributed to the current precarious situation, keeping traders on edge as they anticipate the potential activation of a larger drop in the near future. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-price-bounces-off-1-2300-as-dollar-soars/
2023-11-09 09:43
The ECB’s chief economist expressed dissatisfaction with the progress in controlling inflation. Eurozone inflation dropped to 2.9% last month. ECB’s Lane projected a steady or potentially increasing price growth next year. Thursday’s EUR/USD outlook painted a bullish picture, with the euro making strides against the dollar. The rally was set ablaze by the hawkish remarks from European policymakers. For instance, the European Central Bank’s chief economist expressed dissatisfaction with the progress in controlling inflation. Notably, the ECB paused rate hikes last month. Consequently, there has been growing speculation among investors that the next move could be a cut. This shift comes as consumer price growth has retreated to below 3%. However, policymakers sought to reduce any excitement about the falling inflation, emphasizing that the overall picture was mixed. Moreover, some argued against ruling out the possibility of further rate hikes. On Wednesday, Ireland’s central bank chief, Gabriel Makhlouf, suggested that further interest rate hikes were still possible. Meanwhile, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel acknowledged that reaching the inflation target might be the most challenging phase. Rabobank senior strategist Jane Foley noted a divergence between market and central bankers’ expectations of future rate cuts. There is resistance from many policymakers to such speculation. Furthermore, Foley highlighted that policymakers are likely to maintain the possibility of additional tightening, especially if inflation remains above the target. A sharp drop in market rates could increase inflationary risks. Inflation dropped to 2.9% last month from its previous level of over 10% a year earlier. However, ECB chief economist Philip Lane projected a steady or potentially increasing price growth next year. EUR/USD key events today On the calendar today are events from the US, including, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. The initial jobless claims report. EUR/USD technical outlook: Price rebounds from 30-SMA support. The EUR/USD price found support at the 30-SMA line and is bouncing higher. Similarly, the RSI is climbing after finding support at the 50 level. Bulls are regaining their momentum after a retracement to the 1.0675 key level. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- The next step for bulls will be to make a new high. It means retesting and breaking above the 1.0750 resistance level. However, if the 1.0750 resistance holds firm, bears will likely retest the 30-SMA support. Still, the bullish bias will stay as long as the price holds above the SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-outlook-euro-rises-on-wings-of-hawkish-ecb/
2023-11-09 08:54
Some BoC policymakers advocated for more interest rate hikes at the last meeting. Oil fell due to concerns about reduced demand in the US and China. Money markets anticipate the BoC to start cutting rates as early as April. Thursday saw the continuation of the bullish USD/CAD forecast as the Canadian dollar struggled, weakened by the aftermath of Wednesday’s oil price dip. Despite hawkish minutes from the Bank of Canada’s recent meeting, this weakness came. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the Canadian dollar has closed lower for three consecutive days, following its most significant weekly gain since March last week. Meanwhile, oil, a significant Canadian export, settled 2.6% lower. This decline came amid concerns about reduced demand in the US and China, contributing to a more than 6% decrease since the week began. Elsewhere, a Reuters poll revealed that the Canadian dollar will strengthen less than initially anticipated over the next year. Furthermore, a slowdown in the domestic economy might open the possibility of interest rate cuts. However, the minutes from the Bank of Canada’s October 25 meeting were slightly hawkish. Some governing council members foresaw the potential need for additional interest rate hikes. Still, money markets anticipate the Canadian central bank to start lowering its benchmark interest rate, possibly as early as April. It follows the decision to maintain it at a 22-year high of 5% for the second consecutive time during the October policy meeting. USD/CAD key events today Traders are focused on key US events below, as Canada will not release significant economic reports. Initial jobless claims report. Fed Chair Powell’s speech. USD/CAD technical forecast: Rally hits a wall at 1.3800. On the charts, the USD/CAD rally has paused at the 1.3800 key level. However, the bullish bias is still strong, with the price well above the SMA and the RSI above 50. The pair experienced a sudden reversal that saw bulls take control by pushing the price above the 1.3750 level and the 30-SMA. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- At the same time, the RSI went from the oversold region to bullish territory above 50. The pause at 1.3800 has allowed bears to resurface. It might lead to a retracement to retest recently broken levels, including the 30-SMA and the 1.3750 level. Still, bulls will likely break above 1.3800 if the price stays above the SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-cad-forecast-weaker-oil-to-weigh-on-loonie/
2023-11-08 11:07
The bias remains bullish despite the last sell-off. Taking out the upper median line (uml) validates further growth. False breakouts may announce a new leg down. The USD/JPY price has recently embarked on a formidable upward trajectory, now resting at the significant level of 150.70. This bullish inclination persists despite minor fluctuations in the short term. However, it is imperative to exercise prudence and await confirmation, as the US dollar may only be experiencing a corrective upside move. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Fundamentally, the currency pair has displayed a notable gain, even in the face of better-than-expected results from Japanese Average Cash Earnings and Household Spending, juxtaposed with disappointing figures from the US Trade Balance in the previous trading session. Today’s data reveals that Japanese Leading Indicators have come in at 108.7%, slightly below the anticipated 108.8%. Additionally, the financial world is keenly watching as Federal Reserve Chair Powell is scheduled to address the public—a high-impact event that could send ripples through the markets. Moreover, the Final Wholesale Inventories report and speeches from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members hold the potential to inject further dynamism into the trading landscape. Looking ahead, Japan is set to release several key economic indicators tomorrow, including Economy Watchers Sentiment, Current Account data, the Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions, and Bank Lending statistics. Concurrently, the United States will be closely monitoring developments, as US Unemployment Claims data and another address by Federal Reserve Chair Powell are expected to wield substantial influence on market dynamics. USD/JPY Price Technical Analysis: Leg Higher From a technical standpoint, the USD/JPY pair has encountered robust support just below the median line (ml), prompting a notable upward surge in its trajectory. It currently finds itself in a position to challenge the upper median line (uml) of the descending pitchfork, which serves as a dynamic resistance level. A decisive breakout from this resistance is poised to set the stage for further upward momentum, while any false breakouts may signify a potential reversal and subsequent decline. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- It’s worth noting that the weekly R1 at 151.10 looms as a significant barrier to upward movement should the exchange rate continue its rise. However, given the remarkable surge observed thus far, it remains prudent to acknowledge the probability of a temporary retracement. This would allow the price to gather additional bullish momentum before embarking on its next leg higher. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-price-challenges-dynamic-resistance-eying-fomc/
