2023-11-08 09:47

Fed’s Christopher Waller highlighted the remarkable third-quarter US economic growth. Michelle Bowman noted that the US economy remains robust. British consumer spending last month saw its slowest growth in over a year. The dollar strengthened on Wednesday, casting a shadow of bearishness on the GBP/USD forecast as traders contemplated the likelihood of an impending US interest rate hike. Meanwhile, investors were anticipating remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- On Tuesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller highlighted the remarkable third-quarter US economic growth as a factor to monitor in the central bank’s deliberations on future policy decisions. Notably, the value hit an annualized rate of 4.9%, Furthermore, his comments prompted a fellow Fed official to explicitly call for another rate hike. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman interpreted the recent GDP data as evidence that the US economy not only remained robust but may have even accelerated. Consequently, it might necessitate a higher Fed policy rate. Meanwhile, British consumer spending last month saw its slowest growth in over a year, as indicated in a Tuesday survey. Barclays reported a 2.6% increase in spending on their debit and credit cards from September 24 to October 21 compared to the previous year. It represents the smallest annual rise since September 2022. Moreover, it is a decline from the 4.2% growth seen in the previous month. Additionally, when adjusted for a 6.7% consumer price inflation in September, the actual volume of goods and services purchased by British consumers decreased. GBP/USD key events today The UK will not release major economic reports today. Therefore, investors will focus on key events from the US, including, Fed Chair Powell’s speech. GBP/USD technical forecast: RSI highlights waning bullish momentum. The pound’s decline from the 1.2401 key level has paused at the 30-SMA support. Similarly, the RSI shows that bulls have lost momentum as it rests on the pivotal 50 mark. 50 is a pivotal level because it separates strength in bulls and bears. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Therefore, if the RSI stays above 50 and the price above the 30-SMA, there is support for further upside in the pair. However, if it goes below 50 and the price breaks below the SMA, bears will take over. Still, the bullish bias remains, so the price will likely soon break above 1.2300 to retest the 1.2401 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-forecast-dollar-recovers-after-feds-remarks/

2023-11-08 08:10

Various Federal Reserve speakers hinted at the possibility of imminent rate hikes. Traders are awaiting a speech from Chair Jerome Powell. Futures suggest a roughly 17% chance of another Fed rate hike by January. In Wednesday’s EUR/USD price analysis, a bearish tone dominated the scene as the dollar staged a comeback. This resurgence came in the wake of various Federal Reserve speakers who hinted at the possibility of imminent rate hikes. At the same time, traders awaited a speech from Chair Jerome Powell regarding the central bank’s future policy direction. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Notably, the greenback experienced a drop last week following the Fed’s decision to maintain its policy rate. Moreover, there were signs of a cooling US labor market. However, it stabilized as the market remained uncertain about whether US interest rates had reached their peak. Additionally, there is uncertainty about how soon the Fed might consider easing monetary conditions. Several Federal Reserve policymakers maintained a neutral tone on Tuesday while assessing the need for additional rate hikes. Futures suggest a roughly 17% chance of another rate hike by January. However, they also indicate a 21% likelihood of rate cuts as early as March, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Attention now shifts to remarks from Fed Chair Powell later on Wednesday. Simpson commented, “There’s a risk that we might observe further strength in the US dollar today if Powell and others continue to emphasize their ‘higher for longer’ outlook.” Meanwhile, the euro faced pressure due to weak German data reported on Tuesday. Data revealed a larger-than-expected decrease in German industrial production in September. EUR/USD key events today All focus today will be on one major event from the US. Fed Chair Powell’s speech. EUR/USD technical price analysis: Bears test a solid support zone. The EUR/USD price has dipped to a solid support zone comprising the 30-SMA and the 1.0675 support level. On the other hand, the RSI has fallen to the pivotal 50 mark. However, this decline comes in an uptrend where the price has made higher highs. Therefore, the pullback might make a higher low if the support zone holds firm. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, it would allow bulls to rechallenge the 1.0750 resistance level for a new high. However, if bears are strong enough to breach the support zone, the price will likely decline to 1.0600. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-price-analysis-fed-fuels-rate-hike-speculation/

2023-11-07 13:20

The bias is bearish if it stays below the median line (ml). Taking out the 1,959 activates more declines. A strong bullish formation within the demand zone indicates a new bullish momentum. The gold price slumped in the short term on Tuesday as the US dollar rebounded. The precious metal is currently trading at $1,968 and is under heavy pressure. After the recent swing higher, a correction is natural, and the USD may have been oversold despite the recent poor US data. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Fundamentally, the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a 25-bps hike as expected. Later today, the US Trade Balance is expected to come in at -59.7 billion, versus -58.3 billion in the previous reporting period. The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index is expected to jump from 36.3 points to 40.2 points, while Consumer Credit could be reported at 8.8 billion, versus -15.6 billion. In addition, the FOMC members’ speeches could bring high action as well. Tomorrow, BOE Governor Bailey and Fed Chair Powell are scheduled to speak, which could have a big impact on the gold price in the short term. Positive US data could help the USD to appreciate and may bring more sellers to the XAU/USD pair. However, after the recent strong drop, buyers could jump in again. The DXY rebounded today, but this could be only temporary after the recent leg down. Overall, the gold price is in a short-term correction, but buyers could jump in again if the USD weakens further. Traders should keep an eye on the upcoming US data and the speeches from BOE Governor Bailey and Fed Chair Powell for further direction. Gold Price Technical Analysis: Bearish Dominance The gold price crashed below dynamic support, signaling that a larger correction could be in the making. Buyers are exhausted, and sellers are in control, with the price now trading below the median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Traders are closely watching the price action at the current demand zone above the $1,959 level. If the price fails to hold above this level, it could extend its downward movement. However, a strong bullish formation within the current demand zone or false breakdowns with great separation could indicate that the correction could be over. A larger correction could be activated after taking out the $1,959 support. Traders are advised to be cautious and to manage their risk carefully. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gold-price-hits-support-at-1959-as-greenback-recovers/

2023-11-07 09:32

The RBA boosted interest rates by 25 basis points, ending its four-month pause. Investors perceived the RBA’s forward guidance as dovish. The Australian dollar plummeted by up to 0.9% after the RBA announcement. The AUD/USD price analysis turned bearish following the RBA’s rate adjustment and shifted the outlook that prompted speculation of an impending end to rate hikes. Notably, the RBA raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Tuesday, ending four months of stable policy. However, the RBA modified its language concerning the future outlook. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Carol Kong, a strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, noted that the RBA’s forward guidance was perceived as dovish. Consequently, the Australian dollar quickly reversed its gains following an initial rally. Rates have risen by 425 basis points since May of the previous year, marking the most aggressive cycle in the RBA’s history. As a result, mortgage payments have risen significantly. Moreover, economic growth has slowed to a two-year low of 2.1%, and the RBA predicts it will approach 1% in 2024 as the full effects of higher rates take hold. The possibility of a rate hike had emerged as consumer price inflation exceeded expectations in the third quarter. Additionally, the central bank’s forecasts for CPI were adjusted to 3.5% by the end of 2024, up from 3.3%. Furthermore, policymakers only expect inflation to reach the top end of the target range by the end of 2025. Following the RBA’s announcement, the Australian dollar plummeted by up to 0.9% to $0.64305 during the session. AUD/USD key events today Traders will keep absorbing the RBA rate decision and policy outlook as there are no other significant events set for the day. AUD/USD technical price analysis: Bears pause at the 30-SMA support. The AUD/USD price has collapsed to the 30-SMA after briefly trading above the 0.6500 key level. Similarly, the RSI has entered bearish territory after trading in the overbought region. It indicates that the collapse was sudden and steep. However, bears are yet to break below the 30-SMA support. This would be a significant step in taking over control from the bulls. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, a break below the SMA would allow bears to retest and likely break below the 0.6400 support level. However, it is also possible that the SMA will halt the decline. In that case, bulls would return to retest the 0.6500 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/aud-usd-price-analysis-rba-hikes-25-bps-with-cautious-tone/

2023-11-07 08:07

Neel Kashkari stated that the Fed probably needs to do more work to manage inflation. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver speeches on Wednesday and Thursday. Japan’s real wages declined for the 18th consecutive month. The USD/JPY outlook brightened with investors embracing a bullish sentiment Tuesday as the dollar extended its rally, building on Monday’s upswing. On Monday, Neel Kashkari, the President of the Fed Bank of Minneapolis, stated that the US central bank probably needs to do more work to manage inflation. Consequently, the dollar rose. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Additionally, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver speeches on Wednesday and Thursday. Markets will focus on whether he maintains the more dovish stance adopted after the Fed’s policy meeting last week. CBA’s Kong noted, “If Powell takes a slightly more hawkish approach later this week, the dollar could bounce back.” Meanwhile, the Japanese yen moved above the critical 150 level. This level has kept traders anxious in recent weeks as they watch for signs of intervention from Tokyo. Notably, the yen reached 151.74 per dollar last week, coming closer to the lows observed in October 2022. The decline prompted multiple rounds of dollar-selling interventions. Elsewhere, Japan’s real wages declined for the 18th consecutive month in September, and consumer spending continued its slump. Increasing prices squeezed households’ purchasing power. As such, it increased pressure from labor groups for higher wage increases. Global financial markets closely monitor wage trends in the world’s third-largest economy. Moreover, the Bank of Japan considers sustainable wage increases a prerequisite for phasing out its ultra-loose monetary policy. USD/JPY key events today Investors are not expecting any major economic reports from Japan or the US. Consequently, the pair might not make big moves today. USD/JPY technical outlook: Price reclaims 150.00 threshold. On the charts, USD/JPY has recovered yet again and is trading above the 150.00 key level. There is solid bullish momentum, as seen in the RSI, which has pushed above 50. However, the rebound has paused at the 30-SMA resistance. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Notably, bears failed to get the price to the 149.00 support level. As such, the price made a higher low. It shows that bulls might be in control on a larger scale. Moreover, this indicates that bulls might push the price to make a higher high. If this is the case, the price will likely soon break above the 30-SMA and the 150.75 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-outlook-dollar-gains-amid-feds-hawkish-comments/

2023-11-06 13:14

The bias is bullish as the Dollar Index is bearish. Taking out the resistance levels confirms more gains. The 1.0800 psychological level is seen as a potential target. The EUR/USD price resumed its swing higher. The pair is trading at 1.0749, below today’s high of 1.0756, at press time. Fundamentally, the greenback took a hit from the US economic data on Friday. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The NFP came in at 150K in October versus 178K and compared to 297K in September, Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.2% less compared to the 0.3% growth estimated, Unemployment Rate jumped unexpectedly from 3.8% to 3.9%, while ISM Services PMI dropped to 51.8 points below 53.0 points forecasts. In addition, the Canadian Unemployment Rate and Employment Change also came in worse than expected. DXY’s massive drop weakened the USD. Today, the German Factory Orders increased by 0.2%, even if the traders expected a 1.3% drop, while the German Final Services PMI jumped from 48.0 to 48.2 points. Furthermore, the Eurozone Final Services PMI remained at 47.8 points, while Sentix Investor Confidence printed at -18.6 points compared to -22.2 points estimates. Tomorrow, the German Industrial Production and the Eurozone PPI could have an impact. EUR/USD Price Technical Analysis: Leg Higher Technically, the EUR/USD price extended its rally after jumping above the ascending pitchfork’s median line (ml). It is near the upper median line (uml), representing an upside target and obstacle. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- The 38.2% retracement level represents a resistance level as well. It remains to see how it reacts around these levels. False breakouts may announce a new sell-off, while a valid breakout activates further growth towards the 1.0800 psychological level and up to the R1 (1.0810). Still, after such an impressive growth, we cannot exclude a temporary retreat. The price could come back to retest the support levels before jumping higher. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-price-aiming-for-1-0765-after-downbeat-us-nfp/