2023-08-16 09:48

Australian wage growth remained stable in the June quarter. Yearly pay increases in Australia unexpectedly slowed, raising hopes that inflationary pressures might weaken. RBA projections anticipate annual wage growth peaking at 4.1% by the end of the year. Today’s AUD/USD outlook is bearish. Australian wage growth remained stable in the June quarter. However, the pace of yearly pay increases unexpectedly slowed. This unexpected slowdown raised hopes that inflationary pressures might weaken, providing a case against further interest rate hikes. With dovish minutes from the July policy meeting also released, investors are more confident that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold rates in September. The probability of this outcome has risen to 91% from 85%. According to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the wage price index showed a 0.8% rise in the June quarter compared to the previous one. Notably, this growth rate was slightly below the anticipated 0.9% increase. Meanwhile, annual pay growth experienced a slight decline. It moved from a peak of 3.7% in the previous quarter to 3.6% in the current one. Furthermore, this departure marked a shift from the increasing trend observed since the first quarter of 2021. Despite Australia’s low jobless rate of 3.5%, the economy’s performance in terms of job creation is exceeding expectations. Nevertheless, wages are still not keeping up with inflation, impacting real incomes. The RBA’s recently released minutes indicated that the bank envisions a scenario in which inflation remains controlled by the current interest rate level. Their projections anticipate annual wage growth peaking at 4.1% by the end of the year and then subsiding to 3.6% by the end of 2025. AUD/USD Key Events Today Investors will watch sales data from the US to get an idea of consumer spending in the country. Consumer spending drives the broader economy. AUD/USD Technical Outlook: 30-SMA Retaining Selling Pressure AUD/USD 4-hour chart On the charts, AUD/USD is pushing lower after retesting the 30-SMA and the 0.6500 resistance level. The bearish bias is strong because the price respects the 30-SMA resistance. Moreover, the RSI trades below 50, indicating solid bearish momentum. Therefore, bears will likely soon retest the nearest support at 0.6450. However, the bearish momentum in the downtrend has weakened. The RSI has made a bullish divergence that could soon reverse the trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/aud-usd-outlook-aus-yearly-wage-growth-sees-surprising-dip/

2023-08-16 09:46

Data revealed a record surge in UK basic wages. The UK’s unemployment rate climbed to 4.2% from 4.0%. Market estimates suggest a 55% likelihood of the BoE’s benchmark rates reaching 6% in early 2024. Today’s GBP/USD price analysis is bullish. On Tuesday, the British pound gained ground following data revealing a record surge in UK basic wages. Consequently, this development heightened the Bank of England’s concerns about inflation. The pound marked a 0.12% increase. Initially, it had risen by as much as 0.28% to $1.2720 after the release of the wage data. Notably, British wages, excluding bonuses, surged by 7.8% compared to the same period the previous year, spanning three months ending in June. This upturn represented the highest annual growth rate since comparable records were initiated in 2001. Surprisingly, the UK’s unemployment rate climbed to 4.2% from 4.0%. Analysts noted that this wage rise and unemployment could complicate the Bank of England’s decision-making. Moreover, pay growth appears poised to surpass the rate of consumer price inflation, projected to slow to 6.8% in July. This is according to upcoming data from the ONS on Wednesday. Meanwhile, market estimates suggest a 55% likelihood of the BoE’s benchmark rates reaching 6% in early 2024, up from their current level of 5.25%. Elsewhere, Governor Andrew Bailey remarked earlier that the pace of pay growth exceeded the central bank’s predictions. However, the BoE also hinted that it was nearing a pause in its series of interest rate increases. Bailey and his colleagues might find solace in some indications of a cooling labor market beyond the pay data. GBP/USD Key Events Today Investors will now focus on the US, which will release retail sales data. They expect to see a drop in core retail sales and an increase in retail sales in July. GBP/USD Technical Price Analysis: Bulls Push Above 30-SMA And 1.2701 Resistance. GBP/USD 4-hour chart The pound is pushing above the charts’ 30-SMA and 1.2701 resistance level. Bulls took control at the 1.2625 support level with a strong candle that paused at the 1.2701 resistance. The bulls have now gathered enough momentum to go above this resistance. Moreover, the RSI has crossed above 50, indicating a stronger bullish momentum. If bulls can close above this resistance zone, the price will likely retest the next resistance level at 1.2803. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-price-analysis-pound-soars-amid-upbeat-basic-wages/

2023-08-15 04:08

The bias is bullish if it stays above the median line (ml). 3501 represents the first target. The US and Canadian data should be decisive tomorrow. The USD/CAD price edged higher, trading at 1.3462 at the time of writing. The bias is bullish, so a further rise is highly probable. –Are you interested in learning more about making money with forex? Check our detailed guide- The pair may hit new highs if the greenback extends its upside bias. Fundamentally, the US dollar received a helping hand from the US economic figures on Friday. The PPI reported a 0.3% growth beating the 0.2% growth estimated and the 0.0% growth in the former reporting period, while Core PPI increased by 0.3% exceeding the 0.2% growth forecasted. Tomorrow, the fundamentals should remain in the driving seat. The Canadian Consumer Price Index is expected to report a 0.3% growth in July versus the 0.1% growth in June. In addition, the Core PPI, Median CPI, Trimmed CPI, and Common CPI data will also be released. On the other hand, the US Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales indicators are expected to report a 0.4% growth compared to the 0.2% growth in the previous reporting period. Furthermore, the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Import Prices, Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Market Index, and TIC Long-Term Purchases data will also be released. USD/CAD Price Technical Analysis: Strong Buying Momentum USD/CAD price hourly chart Technically, the USD/CAD pair escaped from the minor flag pattern signaling an upside continuation. The median line (ml) of the ascending pitchfork represents dynamic support. As long as it stays above it, the rate should approach and reach new highs. Its failure to reach and retest this line announced strong buyers and bullish pressure. The 1.35 psychological level represents the next upside target. It remains to see how it reacts around the 1.3501 former high. A new higher high, a valid breakout should announce further growth ahead. The ascending pitchfork’s upper median line (uml) represents a potential target if the rate continues to grow. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-cad-price-aiming-at-1-3500-eyes-on-canadian-cpi/

2023-08-15 04:07

Escalating concerns over China’s property troubles highlights the need for stimulus. The dollar gained strength as Treasury yields rose. Futures suggest a 70% likelihood that the Federal Reserve has completed its rate hikes. Today’s AUD/USD outlook is bearish. On Monday, the Australian dollar made new lows before recovering due to escalating concerns over China’s property troubles. Concurrently, the dollar gained strength as Treasury yields rose. Notably, the challenges faced by China’s primary private property developer, Country Garden, have the potential to impact homebuyers and financial institutions negatively. The company’s stocks plummeted by 18% to reach an all-time low on Monday following the suspension of its onshore bonds. This setback dealt another blow to policymakers striving to bolster confidence in a faltering economy. Moreover, recent news indicated that two Chinese-listed companies had not received payments on maturing investment products from Zhongrong International Trust Co. Meanwhile, data this week will include US retail sales figures, projected to reflect a 0.4% increase in spending. However, the risk factors lean towards the higher side, partially attributed to Amazon’s Prime Day. Such an outcome could challenge the prevailing anticipation of stable interest rates. Currently, futures suggest a 70% likelihood that the Federal Reserve has completed its rate hikes. Moreover, the market has priced in over 120 basis points of cuts for next year, starting around March. Meanwhile, the Fed’s most recent meeting minutes will come out on Wednesday. They might reveal that members aimed to maintain flexibility concerning further rate hikes. Despite the economy’s resilience and significant government borrowing needs, the 10-year Treasury yields remained at 4.15%. This followed a 12 basis point increase the previous week. This rise in yields bolstered the dollar against other major currencies. AUD/USD Key Events Today It will likely be a quiet day for AUD/USD as no major economic releases are coming from the US or Australia. AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Downtrend Persists, Breaching The Essential 0.6500 Level. AUD/USD 4-hour chart AUD/USD continues to descend on the charts, with the latest move being a break below the 0.6500 key level. However, the price stays closer to the 30-SMA, indicating less enthusiasm to lower prices. At the same time, the RSI has made a bullish divergence with the price, further indicating weakness in the downtrend. Consequently, we might see a deep pullback, breaking above the 30-SMA or a trend reversal. https://www.forexcrunch.com/aud-usd-outlook-china-property-woes-drive-aud-to-new-lows/

2023-08-15 04:05

Traders are cautiously seeking hints about a potential yen intervention. The substantial gap in interest rates between Japan and the United States has led to yen weakness. The yen has lost nearly 10% of its value against the dollar this year. Today’s USD/JPY forecast is bullish. On Monday, the yen declined to its lowest point this year against the dollar, breaching the crucial 145 threshold. However, it recovered slightly as traders cautiously sought hints about potential intervention. Meanwhile, the dollar surged to its highest level in over a month. The Japanese yen weakened, reaching as low as 145.22 per dollar, its lowest since November 10. However, the currency swiftly changed direction in a volatile start to the week. The yen has become an attractive target for short-sellers and funding trades due to Japan’s low yields. Moreover, the substantial gap in interest rates between Japan and the United States has led to ongoing weakness in the yen. Notably, Japan took action in the currency markets when the USD/JPY price exceeded 145 last September. This move prompted the Ministry of Finance (MOF) to purchase yen, driving the pair back to around 140 yen. Throughout the year, the yen has lost nearly 10% of its value against the dollar. Charu Chanana from Saxo Markets noted, “The absence of verbal intervention so far implies that Japanese authorities might be more patient. This follows recent adjustments to monetary policy and disinflation trends in the United States.” She added, “Nevertheless, traders may approach the 145 level cautiously, and profit-taking could occur, indicating that surpassing 145 will likely be a gradual process.” USD/JPY Key Events Today Investors are not expecting any key events from Japan or the US today. Therefore, the pair will likely experience thin trading. USD/JPY Technical Forecast: Price Wobbling Under 145.01. USD/JPY 4-hour chart USD/JPY is hovering near the 145.01 resistance level on the charts. Bulls have been in the lead, pushing the price above the 142.02 resistance level. The bullish bias is strong as the price has stayed far above the 30-SMA, and the RSI trades near the overbought region. The bullish move has, however, paused at 145.01. This might lead to a pullback to retest the recently breached 142.02 level and the 30-SMA. Bulls will then resume the uptrend if this support zone holds firm. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-forecast-greenback-hits-yearly-top-amid-risk-aversion/

2023-08-09 09:45

The safe-haven dollar declined on Wednesday amid improved risk sentiment. The market focus is on the US inflation report. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker conveyed that interest rates are already sufficiently high. Today’s AUD/USD price analysis is bullish. The safe-haven dollar declined on Wednesday amid improved risk sentiment, despite fresh indications of struggles in the Chinese economy. State-owned Chinese banks engaging in dollar selling contributed to the yuan’s recovery from a one-month low. Moreover, this happened even as China entered a state of deflation. Furthermore, it positively affected the Australian dollar, which rebounded from multi-month lows. Aussie dipped on Tuesday, reaching its lowest point since June 1 at $0.6497. The dollar eased despite concerns about global growth stemming from China’s economic indicators. Notably, China experienced the first drop in consumer prices in over two years in July. Meanwhile, the US inflation data set to come out on Thursday carries immense significance. It will shape the market’s understanding of the Federal Reserve’s course of action. Notably, there were mixed signals from Fed officials recently. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker conveyed that interest rates are already sufficiently high. He stated that unless there is a sudden shift in the recent economic data, the Fed might be able to maintain the current interest rates. This aligns with the views of Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. However, the Fed’s stance has not been consistent. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman indicated on Monday that further rate hikes are probable. Meanwhile, traders still heavily favor a quarter-point rate increase at the next policy meeting in September, with an 86.5% probability. AUD/USD Key Events Today The pair will likely consolidate ahead of the US inflation report as investors are not expecting key Australian or US releases today. AUD/USD Technical Price Analysis: Aussie Returns After 0.6500 Support. AUD/USD 4-hour chart On the charts, AUD/USD has rebounded after finding support at the 0.6500 level. The price is currently above 30-SMA, while the RSI is over 50. This indicates an imminent shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish. Bulls will take control when the price closes above the 30-SMA. However, the price must break above the 0.6600 resistance to confirm the start of a bullish trend to make a higher high. If the resistance holds, the price will likely enter a period of consolidation. https://www.forexcrunch.com/aud-usd-price-analysis-aussie-bids-amid-improved-risk/