2025-05-19 13:02
The USD/JPY forecast shows further dollar weakness. US consumer sentiment came in at 50.8 compared to expectations of 53.1. Trump’s tariff threats caused some uncertainty in the market. The USD/JPY forecast shows further dollar weakness after a downgrade to the US government’s credit rating. At the same time, market participants were worried about progress on trade negotiations between the US and its trading partners. The dollar fell on Friday after data revealed weak consumer sentiment. According to the report, consumer sentiment came in at 50.8 compared to expectations of 53.1. The unexpected drop revealed that consumers were still not confident in the economy. Moreover, the greenback started the week down against most of its peers, including the yen. This happened after Moody’s downgraded the US government’s credit rating, citing its growing debt size. This was another reason for traders to dump the dollar and buy the yen. Furthermore, demand for the safe-haven yen increased after reports that Trump was threatening tariffs on countries that are not negotiating in good faith. The US has announced trade deals with the UK and China, which boosted sentiment. However, talks with India, Japan, and South Korea seem to have stalled. As a result, Trump’s tariff threats caused some uncertainty in the market. Meanwhile, BoJ policymakers are ready to keep hiking interest rates as long as the economy pushes past Trump’s tariff impacts. USD/JPY key events today Market participants do not expect any key economic releases from the US and Japan. USD/JPY technical forecast: Bears reach a pivotal support zone On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has pulled back and is approaching its support trendline. The price trades below the 30-SMA, with the RSI under 50, indicating a bearish bias. At the same time, the price has reached the 0.618 Fib retracement level that might act as a support. Therefore, USD/JPY might soon bounce higher. The price has maintained a shallow uptrend that chops through the SMA but respects the trendline. Consequently, the uptrend will continue if bulls return near the trendline support. Such an outcome would allow the price to break above the 146.02 resistance level and the 30-SMA. Bulls would likely break above the 148.51 resistance level to make a new high. On the other hand, a break below the trendline would signal a shift in sentiment. It would allow bears to retest the 142.55 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/19/usd-jpy-forecast-us-credit-downgrade-weighs-on-dollar/
2025-05-17 19:23
The USD/CAD weekly forecast shows increased demand for the dollar. US inflation revealed weaker price pressures, increasing chances of a Fed rate cut in September. The Canadian dollar fell as oil prices dropped. The USD/CAD weekly forecast shows increased demand for the dollar amid easing global trade tensions. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The USD/CAD pair had a bullish week as the dollar strengthened and the Canadian dollar weakened. The dollar strengthened despite downbeat economic data as investors remained optimistic about the recent trade truce between the US and China. Figures on inflation revealed weaker price pressures, increasing chances of a Fed rate cut in September. Meanwhile, retail sales came in slightly above estimates. However, sales dropped significantly from the previous month. On the other hand, the Canadian dollar fell as oil prices dropped. Oil dipped after Trump announced a likely nuclear deal with Iran, increasing oversupply worries. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week, Canada will release major reports showing the state of inflation and consumer spending. In the previous reading, inflation increased by 0.3%. A bigger-than-expected figure will lower expectations for a Bank of Canada rate cut in June. Policymakers would opt to continue the pause they started in April. However, a soft figure will increase bets of a rate cut. At the moment, traders are pricing a slightly over 50% chance of a cut on June 4th. The retail sales report will show the state of consumer spending, also shaping the outlook for BoC rate cuts. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Bulls aim for the 1.4100 resistance after takeover On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has broken above the 22-SMA, signaling a bullish sentiment shift. At the same time, the RSI trades above 50, suggesting solid bullish momentum. Previously, the price was dropping fast until it neared the 1.3801 support level. Here, price action slowed, and candlesticks became smaller. Moreover, as the price edged lower, the RSI edged higher, indicating a bullish divergence. This was a clear sign that bears were exhausted. However, bulls still have to push the price higher to confirm a new direction. A break above the 1.4100 would strengthen the bullish bias. Moreover, it would allow USD/CAD to climb and challenge higher resistance levels. However, if this does not happen, bears might return to push the price below the SMA and resume the previous decline. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/17/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-dollar-rises-on-eased-trade-worries/
2025-05-17 19:18
The AUD/USD weekly forecast points south as market participants bet on an RBA rate cut. Data during the week revealed stronger wage growth in Australia in Q1. The dollar had a strong week on lingering optimism over the US-China trade truce. The AUD/USD weekly forecast points south as market participants bet on an RBA rate cut next week. Ups and downs of AUD/USD The AUD/USD price had a bearish week despite upbeat employment figures from Australia. Data during the week revealed stronger wage growth in the first quarter. Moreover, a separate report showed a bigger-than-expected increase in employment. However, despite the positive figures, traders maintained bets of a rate cut next week, weighing on the Australian dollar. Meanwhile, in the US, inflation figures were cooler than expected, increasing pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs. However, sales figures came in slightly better than expected. The dollar had a strong week on lingering optimism over the US-China trade truce. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week, market participants will focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting. Despite strong employment data during the week, traders have maintained their bets for a 25-bps rate cut. RBA policymakers are more focused on inflation, which has been easing. At the same time, Trump’s tariffs downgraded global growth, forcing most central banks to consider faster easing cycles. Traders will also focus on the messaging about future rate cuts. Although the central bank might cut next week, market participants are pricing fewer cuts this year due to the solid labor market. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls struggle to find footing after a breakout On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has paused below the 0.6500 key psychological level after breaking out of its consolidation area. The price has pulled back to retest the 22-SMA while the RSI trades slightly above 50, suggesting a bullish bias. Initially, the price was caught in a range between the 0.6150 support and the 0.6351 resistance level. Bears were the first to attempt a breakout. However, they failed to sustain a move lower. Soon after that, bulls gained enough momentum to break above the range resistance. However, the breakout was weak, marked with small-bodied candles. Moreover, bulls have not found their footing above the range area. A break above the 0.6500 key level would make a higher high, strengthening the bullish bias. Otherwise, the price will remain in consolidation. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/17/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-bearish-sentiment-as-rba-cut-looms/
2025-05-16 09:02
The USD/CAD price analysis shows increasing pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates. US data revealed softer-than-expected wholesale inflation and weaker consumer spending. Oil collapsed on Thursday after Trump announced a likely nuclear deal with Iran. The USD/CAD price analysis shows increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. As a result, the dollar is fragile against most of its peers. However, gains for the Canadian dollar remained subdued due to the recent collapse in oil prices. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data from the previous session revealed softer-than-expected wholesale inflation and weaker consumer spending in the US. The PPI unexpectedly dropped by 0.5%. Meanwhile, economists had expected a 0.2% increase. Previously, data had also shown cooler consumer inflation. However, Powell has been expecting a spike due to Trump’s tariffs. Therefore, he might remain cautious for a bit longer. A separate report revealed that retail sales increased by 0.1%. Although it was slightly higher than the forecast, it was a sharp drop from the previous 1.7% increase. Weaker consumer spending points to a slowdown in the economy that could further pressure the Fed. The economic figures weighed on the dollar, allowing the loonie to rise. However, a sharp decline in oil kept a lid on gains. Oil collapsed on Thursday after Trump announced a likely nuclear deal with Iran. Such an outcome would add supply to an already loose market. USD/CAD key events today Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations USD/CAD technical price analysis: Bulls struggle to break 1.4000 resistance On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has pulled back to retest the 30-SMA support after failing to break above the 1.4000 key psychological level. However, the bullish bias remains intact since the price sits slightly above the SMA with the RSI above 50. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- USD/CAD has come from a long consolidation. Bulls took charge when the price broke above the range resistance level. At the same time, the price has maintained its position above the SMA, indicating the start of a bullish trend. Therefore, bulls might soon retest the 1.4000 key resistance level. A break above will allow the price to climb to the 1.4100 level. This would strengthen the bullish bias. However, if the 1.4000 resistance holds firm, the price might start consolidating between the 1.3900 support and the 1.4000 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/16/usd-cad-price-analysis-fed-under-pressure-amid-easing-economic-indicators/
2025-05-16 08:18
The GBP/USD outlook suggests weakness in the US economy that is weighing on the dollar. US wholesale inflation unexpectedly fell in April. The UK GDP unexpectedly increased by 0.2%. The GBP/USD outlook suggests weakness in the US economy that is weighing on the dollar. On the other hand, UK GDP data came in better than expected, easing pressure on the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data on Thursday revealed that wholesale inflation unexpectedly fell in April. The PPI fell by 0.5%, compared to forecasts of a 0.2% increase. This follows a downbeat consumer inflation report, adding pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs. At the same time, a report on retail sales revealed an increase of 0.1%. However, it was a big drop from the previous reading of 1.7%. This is a sign that consumer spending fell sharply in April. At the moment, market participants expect a Fed rate cut in September. Inflation is continuing its decline toward the central bank’s target, and growth is slowing down. Still, policymakers might remain cautious to see whether Trump’s tariffs did more damage to the economy. Meanwhile, in the UK, the GDP increased by 0.2%. Economists had not expected any expansion in April. Therefore, this came as a positive surprise. It might ease pressure on the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs. However, policymakers will keep an eye on incoming data to see the full impact of Trump’s trade policies. GBP/USD key events today Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations GBP/USD technical outlook: Bulls target the range resistance On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is climbing after bouncing off its range support and the 30-SMA. The bullish bias is strong because the price trades above the SMA with the RSI above 50. However, on a larger scale, the price remains in consolidation between the 1.3251 support and the 1.3401 resistance. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Previously, bears tried to break out of this consolidation. However, they failed to sustain a move lower. As a result, GBP/USD got back into its range. With bulls in the lead, the price might soon retest the range resistance level. A break above would signal the start of a bullish trend. On the other hand, if the resistance holds as it has done before, the price will remain in consolidation. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/16/gbp-usd-outlook-soft-us-data-weighs-on-dollar/
2025-05-15 09:57
The USD/JPY outlook shows a rebound in the yen. Japan’s wholesale inflation rose by 4.0% in April. Traders are looking forward to US data on sales. The USD/JPY outlook shows a stronger yen due to a growing divergence in policy outlooks between the Fed and the Bank of Japan. Inflation in the US continues dropping while that in Japan continues rising. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- The yen extended its rally on Thursday after data in the previous session revealed higher producer inflation in Japan. Wholesale inflation rose by 4.0% in April, increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to keep hiking interest rates. Moreover, recent wage growth and inflation figures from the country have shown an uptrend and a conducive environment for higher borrowing costs. As a result, rate hike expectations are gradually rising, supporting the yen. On the other hand, the US is witnessing softer inflation. Data on Tuesday revealed that inflation increased by 2.3%, below estimates of a 2.4% increase. The numbers weighed on the dollar and increased bets for a Fed rate cut in September. Rate cuts in the US and hikes in Japan will continue to shrink the gap in rates between the two countries. This will boost the yen. Meanwhile, traders are looking forward to US data on sales, wholesale inflation, and unemployment claims. Moreover, a speech from Powell might shape the outlook for rate cuts. USD/JPY key events today US core PPI m/m US PPI m/m US retail sales m/m US core retail sales m/m US unemployment claims Fed Chair Powell Speaks USD/JPY technical outlook: 30-SMA break signals bearish sentiment shift On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken below the 30-SMA and the 146.02 key level. The price now sits below the SMA with the RSI under 50, suggesting a bearish bias. Bulls were in the lead until the price reached the 148.51 resistance level. Here, bears resurfaced and were strong enough to take charge by pushing the price below the SMA. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Although sentiment has shifted, the shallow uptrend remains intact. The price is still in a higher high, higher low pattern. To confirm a new downtrend, the price would have to break below its support trendline. Furthermore, it would have to make a new low below the 142.55 level. Otherwise, it might only retest the trendline before climbing to make a new high above the 148.51 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/15/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-strengthens-as-fed-boj-outlooks-diverge/
