2025-05-12 08:51
The USD/CAD forecast indicates a rapid de-escalation in global trade tensions. China has agreed to cut the US trade deficit. Data on Friday painted a mixed picture of Canada’s labor market. The USD/CAD forecast indicates a rapid de-escalation in trade tensions between China and the US that is supporting the dollar. Meanwhile, market participants are looking forward to US inflation figures for more clues on future Fed policy moves. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- The US and China finally met over the weekend after weeks of a stalemate. The two nations have been at war with each hiking tariffs to unsustainable levels. This trade war has caused a lot of anxiety in the markets, with US assets suffering the most. Economists have even predicted a global recession due to these tariffs. However, the dollar rallied on Monday after reports of a deal between China and the US. China has agreed to cut the US trade deficit. Such a move might lead to a pause in tariffs that would lift the cloud of uncertainty over both economies. Still, traders are waiting for more details on the deal. Meanwhile, data on Friday painted a mixed picture of Canada’s labor market. The economy added 7,400 jobs compared to the forecast of 4,100. However, the unemployment rate jumped from 6.7% to 6.9%, indicating weakness. This week, all focus will be on the US consumer and wholesale inflation reports. These will shape the outlook for Fed rate cuts. USD/CAD key events today Maret participants do not expect any key economic reports from the US or Canada. Therefore, they will watch US trade policy developments. USD/CAD technical forecast: Bulls eye 1.4050 after range breakout On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has broken out of its consolidation area and is now targeting higher levels. The range area was made up of the 1.3775 support and the 1.3900 resistance. The price paused after a downtrend. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, after a long battle, bulls have finally won, pushing the price above the 1.3900 resistance. Moreover, the price pulled back to retest the recently broken level before climbing higher. Currently, USD/CAD trades well above the 30-SMA, with the RSI in the overbought region, indicating a solid bullish bias. If this trend continues, the price will soon retest the 1.4050 key level. The bias will remain bullish as long as the price maintains its position above the SMA and the RSI above 50. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/12/usd-cad-forecast-dollar-gains-as-us-china-relations-improve/
2025-05-10 10:26
The GBP/USD weekly forecast is optimistic after the US-UK trade deal. Some BoE policymakers were not ready to cut interest rates. The dollar had a solid week due to optimism about easing trade tensions. The GBP/USD weekly forecast is optimistic, as the US-UK trade deal alleviates concerns about growth in Britain. Ups and downs of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair had a bullish week but closed below its highs due to dollar strength. The pound had a good week after the US signed a trade deal with the UK, leaving a baseline tariff of 10%. Moreover, the BoE policy meeting revealed that some policymakers were not ready to cut interest rates. As a result, rate cut expectations dropped. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, the dollar also had a solid week after the Fed remained cautious and due to optimism about easing trade tensions. The US-UK deal opened the door for a US-China deal. Next week’s key events for GBP/USD Next week, market participants will focus on data from the UK, including employment, manufacturing production, and GDP. Meanwhile, the US will release figures on consumer inflation, retail sales, and wholesale inflation. The UK employment and GDP reports will shape the outlook for future Bank of England policy moves. Upbeat numbers will lower expectations for rate cuts, supporting the pound. On the other hand, cracks in the economy would pile pressure to cut rates. The same will happen in the US with inflation and sales data. Higher inflation and weak sales would reflect the impacts of Trump’s tariffs. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls retest the SMA line On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has pulled back to retest the 22-SMA support after pausing near the 1.3401 resistance level. Despite the pullback, the price looks ready to bounce higher. It trades above the SMA, and the RSI is above 50, supporting a bullish bias. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- GBP/USD has maintained a bullish trend for some time, despite puncturing the 22-SMA. At the same time, it has respected a support trendline below the SMA, bouncing to new highs from the line. The most recent high came near the 1.3401 key level. Here, the price paused to consolidate as the SMA caught up. Given the strong bullish bias, the price might break above 1.3401 next week for a higher high. Such a move would allow bulls to target the 1.3603 key level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/10/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-trade-deal-calms-uk-growth-fears/
2025-05-10 10:25
The AUD/USD weekly forecast shows rising dollar demand. The Fed kept rates unchanged as expected. A trade deal between the US and the UK eased trade war fears. The AUD/USD weekly forecast shows rising dollar demand as market participants hope for a US-China trade deal. Ups and downs of AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair had a bearish week as the Fed kept interest rates unchanged and noted that the outlook for the economy remained uncertain. At the same time, the dollar bounced higher on trade deal optimism. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- The Fed kept rates unchanged as expected during this week’s meeting. Moreover, Powell maintained his cautious tone, saying there is still no clarity about the economy’s direction. Meanwhile, a trade deal between the US and the UK eased trade war fears. Additionally, it raised hopes for another deal between China and the US that would end the ongoing trade war. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week, traders will get to analyze US inflation and retail sales. At the same time, Australia will release its employment figures, shaping the outlook for Reserve Bank of Australia rate cuts. The Fed is waiting to see whether Trump’s tariffs have reheated price pressure in the economy. Meanwhile, policymakers are also waiting to see the state of economic demand. A jump in inflation and weaker sales will highlight the effects of Trump’s tariffs on the economy. The Fed would then have to weigh inflation and growth. Still, signs of a recession will force policymakers to cut interest rates. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls trigger a range breakout On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has pulled back to retest a key support and resistance zone after a recent breakout. The price sits above the SMA, and the RSI is above 50, showing bulls are in the lead. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- For a long time, AUD/USD has maintained a sideways move between the 0.6200 support and the 0.6351 resistance, often puncturing the levels. At the same time, the price chopped through the SMA. At one point, bears strengthened enough to trigger a breakout. However, the price soon reversed into the range area, confirming a false breakout. This move gave bulls enough confidence to break above the resistance zone. The price is currently retesting this zone and the SMA. If bulls are ready for a new trend, the price will bounce higher next week, likely hitting the 0.6602 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/10/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-us-china-deal-hopes-drive-up-dollar/
2025-05-09 09:44
The GBP/USD forecast is neutral after a seesaw move under 1.3300. The US-China trade talks remain a pivot for the market participants. The upgraded UK GDP forecast provides support to the pound. The GBP/USD forecast remains neutral above mid-1.3200 during the London session on Friday, paring intraday losses. The greenback eased following a sharp rally in the Asian session. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The Dollar Index (DXY) surged to 100.75 on Thursday due to optimism driven by trade developments. The initial spike in the US dollar followed the announcement of the US-UK trade deal. It was the first deal under Trump since Liberation Day. Though the deal had symbolic significance, its economic implications are limited as the US is already in surplus with the UK trade. Markets now pay attention to the US-China trade talks scheduled on May 10 in Switzerland. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Greer will meet their Chinese counterparts to ease trade tension. The US Commerce Secretary also expressed hopes to de-escalate tariff tension. The British pound found support despite initial weakness from domestic factors. The Bank of England cut rates by 25 bps to 4.25% with a 7-2 vote split. Two members favored no change, while two other members advocated for a 50-bps cut. The UK GDP forecast was also revised from 0.75% to 1.0% by the BoE. The central bank also maintained a cautious approach for future rate cuts. These factors aided the pound in pausing its downside against most of its peer currencies. On the other hand, the Fed opted to keep rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% for the third consecutive meeting. Chair Powell warned of inflationary risks due to tariff measures. He also noted that sustained trade barriers could lead to stagflation. Looking forward, the GBP/USD traders will be watching developments around US-China trade talks over the weekend and follow-up commentaries from the central banks. Any signs of de-escalation can further shift momentum in the pair. GBP/USD technical forecast: Neutral after recovery The 4-hour chart shows a mixed scenario. The price broke the previous low and the support at 1.3225 but managed to regain above the level. It shows a slight weakness prevailing in the pair. The RSI also rose from the oversold area but remains in the sell zone. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- The 30-period SMA stays above the price, which also indicates a bearish pressure. However, the SMA can attract a meaningful pullback. The immediate hurdle lies at 1.3300, ahead of 1.3330. On the downside, 1.3225 and 1.3200 are potential support levels. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/09/gbp-usd-forecast-recovers-amid-dollar-pullback-trade-talks/
2025-05-09 07:58
The EUR/USD outlook is weak amid trade optimism and dollar strength. US-China trade optimism can stabilize the markets. The Fed’s cautiousness and the ECB’s dovish tone can further weaken the Euro. The EUR/USD outlook turns mildly bearish after breaking the 1.1200 handle briefly during Friday’s Asian session. The downtick move came amid the dollar’s renewed strength and trade optimism. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The pair trimmed losses and gained to the 1.1250 area but remains under pressure due to trade developments and stronger US jobs data. President Trump announced a major trade deal with the UK, though the 10% tariffs stay in place. The partial agreement triggered a modest uptick in the dollar. Market sentiment also improved due to the US-China trade talks scheduled on May 10 in Switzerland. Though both sides have tempered expectations, the resumption of negotiations offers stability to the global markets. Meanwhile, President Trump maintains a strong stance against China and reinforced it by appointing a new envoy to Beijing. The President also stated that they won’t offer too many exemptions, which signaled caution. On the data front, the initial jobless claims data from the US dropped to 228k from the previous 241k. Continuing claims also declined by 29k to 1.879 million. Insured employment rate remains constant at 1.2%. These figures show a resilient jobs market, allowing the Fed to maintain interest rates higher for longer. On the other hand, the Euro remains vulnerable as the ECB is more dovish now. The central bank is expected to cut another 25 bps by June. The ECB officials remain concerned about the Eurozone’s economic outlook, even though they are confident in achieving the inflation target by year-end. Key events for EUR/USD FOMC member Waller speaks Trade headlines EUR/USD technical outlook: Selling pressure The 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD shows a mild recovery from the daily lows around 1.1200. The RSI has picked up from the oversold zone but still lies under 50—0, which shows selling pressure. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- The price is settled well below the 30-period SMA, which is another indicator for a sell-off. However, as long as the 1.1200 handle is protected, the price may recover towards the yearly highs. Breaking the level could lead to 1.1100. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/09/eur-usd-outlook-weakened-as-dollar-rises-on-trade-optimism/
2025-05-08 09:35
The US Dollar Index turns positive amid Fed’s cautiousness. Geopolitical concerns keep the gains capped. US-China trade talks pose a temporary optimism. The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovers around the 100.00 area during the early European session on Thursday. The recent upside stems from the Fed’s cautious stance and wait-and-watch approach. Moreover, market participants are looking for coming up US-China trade negotiations. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The Fed’s post-meeting statement on Wednesday admitted inflation and unemployment risk as Jerome Powell cautioned about tariffs disrupting global trade. According to CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in 25 bps rate cut by July. Powell also indicated that the Fed’s future path would be driven by the economic data, and ongoing trade tension may force the central bank to stay cautious. Geopolitical concerns are also weighing on the dollar. The tension between Russia and Ukraine and the Middle East crisis have soured the risk sentiment, pushing investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold, yen, and Swiss franc. However, the dollar managed to post modest gains for the second consecutive session. Market participants eye US-China trade talks set on May 10 in Switzerland. The US Treasury Secretary will meet China’s top officials in the first formal dialogue related to the tariffs. Though the announcement boosted the sentiment, the expectations have been tempered, calling the meeting a preliminary step. However, President Trump came with a bold teaser on social media, promising a major trade deal announcement on Thursday. Analysts remain skeptical of the long-term impacts of tariffs even if there’s a relief in the short run. US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis: Bulls break 30-SMA The 4-hour chart of the US dollar shows a surge above the 30-period SMA which is a bullish sign for the index. The price bounced off the trendline support and is looking to test the 1004.0 area, which is the previous peak. If the level is broken, the index may eye the 101.00 area. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- On the flip side, the DXY staying below 100.00 can urge sellers to pounce at 99.50. Further sell-off can lead to testing the psychological mark at 99.00. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/08/us-dollar-index-at-key-levels-amid-cautious-fed-trade-talks/
