2025-05-08 06:19
Gold trades near $3,400 amid safe-haven demand and a weaker USD. Trump tempers U.S.-China trade optimism by refusing tariff concessions. Geopolitical risks rise with new developments in Ukraine, Russia, Yemen, and South Asia. The Fed holds rates steady, adopts a cautious stance on economic outlook. The gold forecast is strongly bullish as the price edged close to a 2-week top amid geopolitical developments and US macro data. The precious metal continued its rally beyond $3,400 on Thursday. A weaker dollar and lingering trade uncertainties keep the gold price underpinned. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The US President Trump signaled no urgency in resolving US-China trade conflict which turned investor sentiment cautious. He stated that he’s not open to reduce the current tariff of 145% on Chinese imports. These remarks dampened the trade deal optimism and reignited the safe-haven demand for gold. Moreover, risk aversion stemming from geopolitical tensions has also taken center stage. Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow, just hours before Russia’s announcement of ceasefire. Later, Ukraine accused Russia of violating truce with guided bombs. Simultaneously, tension in the Middle East regarding Israel’s attack on Yemen’s main airport and Houthis’ potential retaliation has soured the global risk sentiment. Moreover, India-Pakistan tension at border also keeps geopolitical risk elevated. At monetary policy arena, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25% – 4.50% during policy meeting on Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted enhanced economic uncertainty due to tariff policies. He indicated that the central bank will adopt wait and watch approach rather than cutting rates in near term. Though Fed’s tone was cautious, it couldn’t ignite buying in US dollar which served as another catalyst for gold’s rally. However, gold lacks aggressively bullish bets as equities found support amid Trump’s recent announcement of a major trade agreement with China. During his press conference, he said he would reveal the deal involving a highly respected country. Key Events for Gold Trump’s announcement regarding trade agreement US initial jobless claims Gold Technical Forecast: Bulls fail to sustain $3,400 The 4-hour gold chart shows a strong pullback from above the $3,400 level. This is the second attempt that failed to sustain above the $3,400 area. However, the technical indicators are still bullish for the metal. The RSI is above 50.0 and the price is well above 30-period SMA. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Further selling momentum can lead the price towards $3,330 ahead of $3,300. On the upside, a major hurdle lies at $3,407, ahead of the all-time high at $3,500. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/08/gold-forecast-second-failed-attempt-to-acquire-3400/
2025-05-07 10:33
The USD/CAD forecast points to strength in the oil markets, which is boosting the loonie. China and the US will hold trade talks on Saturday. The Fed will likely keep rates on hold. The USD/CAD forecast points to strength in the oil markets due to hopes of a trade deal between China and the US. As a result, the commodity-sensitive Canadian dollar gained. However, the move was subdued as market participants looked forward to the FOMC policy meeting. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Oil prices rose Wednesday after reports that China and the US will hold talks on Saturday. The news raised hopes of an end to the trade war between the two countries. Market participants have remained cautiously hopeful for a de-escalation of this trade war. It has significantly reshaped the outlook for the global economy. Experts are forecasting weaker growth, which will impact oil demand. Canada is a major exporter of oil. Therefore, lower oil prices hurt the loonie. However, talks between China and the US have raised hopes of a better future for oil and Canada’s economy. Meanwhile, the US economy showed resilience in April, lowering expectations for a Fed rate cut in June. Employment was stronger than expected, and business activity in the services sector continued expanding. The Fed will likely keep rates on hold. However, traders are pricing the first cut in July. Trump announced a new tariff on the film industry on Sunday. If he continues his campaign, the US economy will suffer, and the Fed might be forced to cut interest rates. USD/CAD key events today Federal Funds Rate FOMC Statement FOMC Press Conference USD/CAD technical forecast: Bearish breakout shows weak momentum On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has broken below the 1.3900 support level. At the same time, it has broken out of its consolidation area between the 1.3900 support and the 1.4102 resistance. However, the breakout has been weak. The price is still clinging to the 30-SMA. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, the RSI still shows a bullish divergence, indicating fading momentum. If bears are weak, they might not sustain a move lower for longer before bulls return. Still, USD/CAD might soon reach the 1.3800 support. However, a break above the SMA will signal a bullish sentiment shift. The trend will only change when the price starts making higher highs and lows. Otherwise, bears will regain enough momentum to continue the downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/07/usd-cad-forecast-loonie-lifts-amid-oil-gain-trade-deal-hope/
2025-05-07 08:27
The GBP/USD price analysis is bullish, but the pound has retreated slightly. The US and China are finally ready to meet and start trade negotiations. Market participants expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. The GBP/USD price analysis is bullish, but the pound has retreated slightly from its multi-day top due to dollar strength. The greenback got support from reports that China and the US will hold talks on Saturday to determine the fate of tariffs. Meanwhile, market participants are gearing up for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- After weeks of waiting, the United States and China are finally set to meet and begin trade negotiations. The trade war between these two countries has had a significant impact on the global economy. A Reuters poll recently showed economists expect a global recession. At the same time, Trump’s tariffs have reduced demand for US assets in recent weeks. Fortunately, trade tensions have been easing. Nevertheless, Trump announced new tariffs on the film industry, keeping the cloud of uncertainty over the economy. Meanwhile, market participants expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged later in the day. Recent US economic data has shown a resilient economy. Therefore, there is no need for the Fed to rush rate cuts. Still, experts believe the economy will deteriorate in the coming months. As a result, market participants expect a rate cut in July. On the other hand, the Bank of England will likely cut interest rates by 25-bps on Thursday. Moreover, policymakers might be more dovish due to the dimmer outlook for the global economy. GBP/USD key events today Federal Funds Rate FOMC Statement FOMC Press Conference GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bulls to challenge the range resistance On the technical side, the GBP/USD price trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI over 50, supporting a bullish bias. However, on a larger scale, the price trades in a range between the 1.3225 support and the 1.3401 resistance level. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- The price initially traded in a bullish trend before it paused and started consolidating. Meanwhile, the RSI has made a series of lower highs, indicating a bearish divergence. However, bulls are in the lead within the range, meaning they might soon challenge the range resistance. A break above would confirm a continuation of the previous trend. On the other hand, if bears return, they might break below the 1.3225 support, signaling a trend reversal. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/07/gbp-usd-price-analysis-dollar-strength-nudges-pound-lower/
2025-05-06 10:18
The EUR/USD price analysis indicates renewed dollar weakness. Trump announced a new 100% tariff on films produced outside the US. Data on Monday showed further expansion in the US services sector. The EUR/USD price analysis indicates renewed euro strength as US tariff uncertainty weighs on the dollar. It has become clear that Trump is unwilling to give up his tariff campaign. At the same time, market participants stay off the market ahead of the crucial FOMC policy meeting. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- On Sunday, Trump announced a new 100% tariff on films produced outside the US, pausing the dollar’s recent rally. Initially, demand for the US currency had soared amid hopes of easing trade tensions. Trump had announced looming trade deals with Japan, India, and South Korea. Moreover, the US president said there was hope for a deal with China in the near future. As a result, risk appetite surged and investor confidence rebounded. However, at the start of the week, uncertainty arose when Trump returned to his aggressive tariff moves. This paused the dollar’s rally, allowing the euro to climb on Tuesday. Still, the move was subdued after recent economic figures revealed a resilient US economy. Data on Monday showed further expansion in the services sector as business activity improved more than expected. Meanwhile, Friday’s employment numbers were positive. As a result, Fed rate cut expectations have eased. Still, policymakers might hint at the future during this week’s meeting. EUR/USD key events today Federal Funds Rate FOMC Statement FOMC Press Conference EUR/USD technical price analysis: Bulls aim for the 1.1550 resistance On the technical side, the EUR/USD price is about to break out of a tight wedge pattern near the 1.1301 support level. Bulls are challenging the 30-SMA and the wedge resistance line. At the same time, the RSI has edged above 50, indicating stronger bullish momentum. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Initially, the price was in a solid uptrend, respecting the 30-SMA as support. At the same time, it was making higher highs and lows. However, this stopped after bulls failed to break above the 1.1550 resistance level. Bears emerged at this level and pushed the price below the SMA, indicating a shift in sentiment. The next step for bears was to start making lower highs and lows. However, the 1.1301 support has held firm. Therefore, a break above the SMA and the wedge resistance will allow EUR/USD to retest the 1.1550 level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/06/eur-usd-price-rebounds-as-trade-tensions-resurface/
2025-05-06 09:17
The USD/CAD outlook shows renewed tariff uncertainty in the US, dragging the dollar lower. The greenback rebounded last week after Trump said there was significant progress in trade talks. Business activity in the US services sector expanded further. The USD/CAD outlook shows renewed tariff uncertainty in the US, dragging the dollar lower. The greenback fell against its peers on Monday after Trump announced new film tariffs. Meanwhile, market participants were gearing up for the FOMC policy meeting. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- On Sunday, Trump announced a 100% tariff on all films made outside the US. This move dashed hopes of the US president taking a softer stance on trade policies. As a result, the dollar dropped. Last week, the greenback rebounded after Trump said there was significant progress in trade talks. He said the US would soon sign trade deals with several countries, including India. However, market participants are still waiting for this. Furthermore, the trade war between China and the US continues to hurt both economies. Trump has said several times that the two countries were getting closer to a deal. However, progress has stalled. A re-escalation of tariff uncertainty could weigh on investor confidence and the dollar again. However, data on Monday revealed that business activity in the US services sector expanded further, easing fears of a recession. The report followed an upbeat monthly employment report. As a result, Fed June rate cut bets have dropped. Market participants are now pricing only a 37% chance of such a move. Meanwhile, the Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged at the meeting this week. USD/CAD key events today Federal Funds Rate FOMC Statement FOMC Press Conference USD/CAD technical outlook: Bears struggle to break out of consolidation On the technical side, the USD/CAD price remains in a tight range between the 1.3800 support and the 1.3900 resistance. After a sharp decline, bearish momentum weakened when the price reached the 1.3800 support. The RSI made a bullish divergence, signaling a looming reversal. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Within the range, the price trades nearer the support, meaning bears might attempt a breakout. A break below the range support will confirm a continuation of the previous downtrend. On the other hand, if support holds firm, bulls will return to retest the resistance. Given the RSI divergence, a bullish breakout is more likely. Such a move would allow USD/CAD to retest the 1.4100 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/06/usd-cad-outlook-dollar-dips-as-trade-policy-uncertainty-returns/
2025-05-05 09:22
The USD/JPY outlook shows a stronger yen at the start of the week. The BoJ faces high food inflation, strong wage growth, and the possibility of a weak yen. US employers added 177,000 new workers, beating estimates of 138,000. The USD/JPY outlook shows a stronger yen at the start of the week, as market participants maintain hopes for further BoJ tightening. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened against the yen briefly on Friday after an upbeat US employment report. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The yen collapsed Thursday after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged. Furthermore, the central bank downgraded its outlook for growth and inflation due to the impact of Trump’s tariffs. Governor Ueda noted that Trump’s trade policies had created a lot of uncertainty. Experts took this to mean the policymakers would delay rate hikes. As a result, rate hike expectations dropped. However, Japan’s currency rebounded on Friday after the impact of the policy meeting faded. The BoJ has to face high food inflation, strong wage growth, and the chances of a weak yen. Therefore, hopes are still alive that policymakers will boost interest rates. Meanwhile, the greenback got a brief boost from data showing a resilient labor market. The economy added 177,000 new workers, beating estimates of 138,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. After the report, market participants priced a 35% chance of a June Fed rate cut, down from 58%. However, due to Trump’s tariffs, analysts expect employment to deteriorate in the coming months. USD/JPY key events today US ISM services PMI USD/JPY technical outlook: Brief retreat meets solid support zone On the technical side, bulls have found their footing above the 30-SMA. The trend recently reversed when bears failed to go below the 140.01 support level. The price broke above it resistance trendline and pulled back for a retest. After that, it made a higher high, confirming the new uptrend. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- However, after a new high, the price has returned to retest the recently broken 144.02 key level. At the same time, it is trading nearer the 30-SMA, which is another support level. Still, the price is above the SMA and the RSI is slightly over 50, suggesting a bullish bias. Therefore, bulls might return at this support zone to seek new highs. A bounce higher will likely target the 148.01 resistance level. The trend will only change when the price breaks and stays below the SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/05/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-reflects-confidence-in-boj-hikes/
