2025-05-03 19:33
The USD/CAD weekly forecast shows a slowdown in the US economy. The US economy added 177,000 jobs in April, above estimates of 138,000. Canada’s economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.2%. The USD/CAD weekly forecast shows a slowdown in the US economy that could pressure the Fed to cut rates in June. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The USD/CAD price had a bearish week as most US economic reports signaled an economic slowdown. However, the dollar briefly rebounded on Friday after an upbeat jobs report. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Throughout the week, US data pointed to weakness, with vacancies, jobless claims and private employment all missing forecasts. However, the economy added 177,000 jobs in April, above estimates of 138,000. Still, it was slower than the previous reading of 185,000. Meanwhile, the Canadian economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.2%, increasing pressure on the Bank of Canada to resume its easing cycle. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week, market participants will focus on the FOMC policy meeting. Meanwhile, Canada will release its crucial monthly employment report. The Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged as policymakers wait for more evidence of a deteriorating economy. Data on Friday revealed that the labor market remains stronger than expected. However, traders are increasingly pricing a rate cut in June. Meanwhile, Canada’s employment report will show the state of its labor market, shaping the outlook for Bank of Canada rate cuts. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Bears lose momentum near channel support On the technical side, the USD/CAD price trades below the 22-SMA with the RSI under 50, indicating a bearish bias. Since its peak at the top of the chart, the price has made lower highs and lows. At the same time, it has respected solid resistance and support lines, creating a bearish channel. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- At the moment, bears are challenging the 1.3800 support level. However, price action shows the decline has weakened near the channel support. The candle bodies are smaller. At the same time, the RSI has made a bullish divergence, suggesting fading momentum. If bulls return, the price will likely break above the SMA to retest the channel resistance and the 1.4200 level. The decline will continue as long as the price remains in the channel. The next target will be at the 1.3400 level. On the other hand, a bullish channel breakout would signal a bullish shift in sentiment. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/03/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-down-gdp-urges-for-june-rate-cut/
2025-05-03 19:30
The GBP/USD weekly forecast shows a strong US labor sector. US jobs data pointed to a faster-than-expected economic decline. The US added 177,000 new jobs in April. The GBP/USD weekly forecast is slightly bearish as strong US labor sector validates the Fed’s cautious tone. Ups and downs of GBP/USD The GBP/USD price ended the week down after climbing to new highs. Initially, the pound rallied against the dollar amid downbeat US economic data. However, this changed after robust employment figures at the end of the week. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- US figures on job vacancies, pirate employment and jobless claims pointed to a faster-than-expected economic decline. However, business activity in the manufacturing sector was better than expected. Moreover, the nonfarm payrolls report revealed 177,000 new jobs in April compared to estimates of 138,000. Next week’s key events for GBP/USD Next week, market participants will focus on the Fed and Bank of England policy meetings. Economists expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, while the Bank of England will likely cut rates by 25-bps. The Fed has maintained a cautious tone, with Powell saying there was no hurry to cut interest rates. However, recent downbeat economic data might push the central bank in June. Meanwhile, the BoE is aware of the likely impacts of Trump’s tariffs. Weaker global and UK growth will likely push policymakers to consider a faster easing cycle. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Uptrend pauses after recent swing high On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has paused after reaching the 1.3401 key resistance level. Moreover, the price trades above the 22-SMA and the RSI is above 50, suggesting a bullish bias. GBP/USD has maintained a bullish trend, making higher highs and lows. At the same time, the price has respected a trendline as support. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- The most recent swing started at the support trendline and the 1.2702 level. However, the move slowed near the 1.3401 level. Bulls tried twice to break above the level but failed. Meanwhile, the RSI made a slight bearish divergence, signaling a looming pullback. The price might be ready to retest the 22-SMA. A deeper retreat would retest the support trendline. The bullish bias will remain if the price stays above the SMA or the trendline. Meanwhile, the uptrend will continue with a break above the 1.3401 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/03/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-strong-nfp-justifies-cautious-fed/
2025-05-02 09:12
The EUR/USD price analysis shows a return to US assets. The US is finally ready to initiate trade talks with China. The nonfarm payrolls report will shape the outlook for Fed rate cuts. The EUR/USD price analysis shows a return to US assets that is weighing on the euro. Easing trade tensions between China and the US have given investors enough confidence to start buying US assets, which has caused the euro to lose its appeal. However, the pair edged higher on Friday as market participants awaited the US monthly employment report. If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- Reports on Thursday revealed that the US was finally ready to initiate trade talks with China. Meanwhile, China said on Friday that it was evaluating an offer to hold talks with the US. These reports boosted hopes of an end to the ongoing trade war between the two countries. Last week, both nations took on softer stances on tariffs. The US was willing to bring them down while China exempted some goods from tariffs. Initially, the tariffs had eroded investor confidence in the US, leading to a flow of cash into neighboring regions like the Eurozone. As a result, the euro rallied. However, it is now losing that appeal as traders flock back to the dollar. Nevertheless, traders are still worried about the US economy. Data during the week has revealed weakness in the labor market and softer activity in the manufacturing sector. The nonfarm payrolls report will carry more weight, shaping the outlook for Fed rate cuts. EUR/USD key events today US average hourly earnings m/m US nonfarm employment change US unemployment rate EUR/USD technical price analysis: Bears struggle to make a new low On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has paused its decline after another failed attempt to break below the 1.1301 support level. Nevertheless, the price still trades below the 30-SMA, with the RSI under 50, supporting a bearish bias. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- EUR/USD recently reversed when bulls failed to break above the 1.1550 resistance level. Bears took over by pushing the price below a strong support trendline and the 30-SMA. However, they are yet to confirm a new downtrend. The price must start making lower highs and lows to show that the direction has changed. The price recently made a lower high. The next step is to break below 1.1301 to make a lower low. If this fails, EUR/USD will climb to retest the 1.1550 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/02/eur-usd-price-analysis-confidence-in-us-markets-rebounds/
2025-05-02 08:47
The AUD/USD outlook is optimistic amid hopes of talks between China and the US. The dollar was subdued after downbeat US data this week. Economists expect slower US job growth of 130,000 in April. The AUD/USD outlook is optimistic as the Aussie strengthens on hopes of tariff talks between China and the US. At the same time, the currency got support from a weaker dollar after downbeat US data. Meanwhile, market participants are looking forward to the US nonfarm payrolls for more clues on Fed rate cuts. If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- Reports on Thursday and Friday revealed that the US was ready to initiate talks with China on tariffs. Meanwhile, China has received and is evaluating an offer from the US to start talks. This is a big step towards the end of a trade war that has hurt the global economy. Moreover, it has rekindled hopes for a brighter outlook for both economies. As a result, the risk-sensitive Aussie rose. Meanwhile, the dollar was subdued after downbeat US data this week. On Thursday, unemployment claims rose more than expected, raising fears of a deteriorating labor market. Meanwhile, business activity was stronger than expected. However, it contracted further from the previous month. Market participants are now looking forward to the US monthly report. Economists expect slower job growth of 130,000 in April. A smaller-than-expected number will signal bigger cracks in the labor market, pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates. AUD/USD key events today US average hourly earnings m/m US nonfarm employment change US unemployment rate AUD/USD technical outlook: Bulls take the lead in range-bound move On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is trading in a tight range between the 0.6351 support and the 0.6450 resistance levels. The range came after a sharp rally that kept the price far above the 30-SMA. However, it now just chops through this line, drifting to the side of the chart. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- Within the range, the price is currently above the SMA, and the RSI is above 50, showing bulls are in the lead. Therefore, the price might retest the range resistance. However, the RSI has made a bearish divergence, indicating weaker bullish momentum. Therefore, bulls would have to regain momentum before breaking out of the range and continuing the previous trend. If they fail, the price will likely bounce lower to retest the range support level. A reversal would allow AUD/USD to reach the 0.6200 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/02/aud-usd-outlook-aussie-climbs-on-us-china-trade-talk-hopes/
2025-05-01 09:22
The USD/JPY outlook has turned bullish as the yen loses ground. The dollar rebounded on Thursday, as global trade tensions eased. US data in the previous session revealed a slowdown in the economy. The USD/JPY outlook has turned bullish as the yen loses ground after the Bank of Japan downgraded its outlook for growth. Meanwhile, the dollar rebounded amid hopes for more trade deals, especially with China. However, data from the previous session suggested a weakening US economy and a likely Fed rate cut in June. If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday as widely expected. However, the yen fell after the central bank cut its outlook for growth in Japan. The downgrade comes amid concerns that Trump’s tariffs will hurt the global economy. As a result, market participants expect only 10-bps of hikes this year, compared to 16-bps before the meeting. Elsewhere, the dollar rebounded on Thursday, as global trade tensions eased. Trump stated that the US may soon sign trade agreements with India, South Korea, and Japan. At the same time, he noted progress with China. The comments boosted hopes for an end to the trade war with China, which would brighten the outlook for both economies. However, US data in the previous session revealed a slowdown in the economy. The GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.3%. Meanwhile, private employment came in below estimates, pointing to weak demand for labor in April. Finally, inflation remained unchanged, contrary to economists’ expectations of a 0.1% increase. Weaker growth and softer inflation will pressure the Fed to cut interest rates. USD/JPY key events today US unemployment claims US ISM manufacturing PMI USD/JPY technical outlook: Bulls take charge after trendline break On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is poised to break above the 144.02 resistance level, confirming a new bullish trend. It trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI near the overbought region, suggesting solid bullish momentum. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- The price recently broke above its bearish trendline and pulled back to retest it after meeting the 144.02 resistance level. After the retest, bulls regained momentum, pushing the price above the 30-SMA and challenging the 144.02 level. A break above this level will make a higher high, confirming a bullish trend. Moreover, it will clear the path for USD/JPY to retest the 148.01 resistance level. If it does not break above the resistance level, the price may consolidate before making another attempt. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/01/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-slides-as-boj-cuts-growth-outlook/
2025-05-01 08:58
The USD/CAD forecast indicates a declining US economy. Private employment in the US was lower than expected in March. The US GDP report revealed that the economy contracted by 0.3%. The USD/CAD forecast indicates a declining US economy, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in June. At the same time, Canada’s economy unexpectedly contracted, increasing the chances that the BoC will resume its easing cycle. If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- Data on Wednesday revealed that private employment in the US was lower than expected. The economy added 62,000 jobs compared to forecasts of 114,000. The decline pointed to weaker demand in the labor market in April, likely due to Trump’s tariffs. Meanwhile, the Advance US GDP report revealed that the economy contracted by 0.3%. Economists had expected a 0.3% expansion. However, the decline was not as big as most experts had feared. Some major banks had predicted an over 1% contraction in the economy. Consequently, the decline in the dollar was limited. A separate report showed the core PCE was unchanged. Meanwhile, economists had expected a 0.1% increase. The downbeat data, combined with softer-than-expected inflation, increased expectations for a Fed rate cut in June. On the other hand, data from Canada revealed that the economy contracted by 0.2% compared to expectations of no change. This might also pressure the Bank of Canada to return to rate cuts after pausing at the last meeting. USD/CAD key events today US unemployment claims ISM manufacturing PMI USD/CAD technical forecast: Bears losing momentum On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is caught in a sideways move near the 1.3800 support level. Currently, the price trades below the 30-SMA, indicating that bears are stronger. At the same time, the RSI is in bearish territory below 50. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- Therefore, bears might try to break below and detach from the 1.3800 key level. However, bearish momentum has faded since the downtrend reached the current support. The price started chopping through the 30-SMA with no clear direction. At the same time, the RSI made a bullish divergence, suggesting weakness in the decline. The divergence might allow bulls to take charge by breaking above the SMA and retesting the 1.4050 key level. Meanwhile, if bears regain momentum, USD/CAD will continue its downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/01/usd-cad-forecast-fed-pressured-amid-economic-slowdown/
