2025-05-01 09:22
The USD/JPY outlook has turned bullish as the yen loses ground. The dollar rebounded on Thursday, as global trade tensions eased. US data in the previous session revealed a slowdown in the economy. The USD/JPY outlook has turned bullish as the yen loses ground after the Bank of Japan downgraded its outlook for growth. Meanwhile, the dollar rebounded amid hopes for more trade deals, especially with China. However, data from the previous session suggested a weakening US economy and a likely Fed rate cut in June. If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday as widely expected. However, the yen fell after the central bank cut its outlook for growth in Japan. The downgrade comes amid concerns that Trump’s tariffs will hurt the global economy. As a result, market participants expect only 10-bps of hikes this year, compared to 16-bps before the meeting. Elsewhere, the dollar rebounded on Thursday, as global trade tensions eased. Trump stated that the US may soon sign trade agreements with India, South Korea, and Japan. At the same time, he noted progress with China. The comments boosted hopes for an end to the trade war with China, which would brighten the outlook for both economies. However, US data in the previous session revealed a slowdown in the economy. The GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.3%. Meanwhile, private employment came in below estimates, pointing to weak demand for labor in April. Finally, inflation remained unchanged, contrary to economists’ expectations of a 0.1% increase. Weaker growth and softer inflation will pressure the Fed to cut interest rates. USD/JPY key events today US unemployment claims US ISM manufacturing PMI USD/JPY technical outlook: Bulls take charge after trendline break On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is poised to break above the 144.02 resistance level, confirming a new bullish trend. It trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI near the overbought region, suggesting solid bullish momentum. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- The price recently broke above its bearish trendline and pulled back to retest it after meeting the 144.02 resistance level. After the retest, bulls regained momentum, pushing the price above the 30-SMA and challenging the 144.02 level. A break above this level will make a higher high, confirming a bullish trend. Moreover, it will clear the path for USD/JPY to retest the 148.01 resistance level. If it does not break above the resistance level, the price may consolidate before making another attempt. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/01/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-slides-as-boj-cuts-growth-outlook/
2025-05-01 08:58
The USD/CAD forecast indicates a declining US economy. Private employment in the US was lower than expected in March. The US GDP report revealed that the economy contracted by 0.3%. The USD/CAD forecast indicates a declining US economy, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in June. At the same time, Canada’s economy unexpectedly contracted, increasing the chances that the BoC will resume its easing cycle. If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- Data on Wednesday revealed that private employment in the US was lower than expected. The economy added 62,000 jobs compared to forecasts of 114,000. The decline pointed to weaker demand in the labor market in April, likely due to Trump’s tariffs. Meanwhile, the Advance US GDP report revealed that the economy contracted by 0.3%. Economists had expected a 0.3% expansion. However, the decline was not as big as most experts had feared. Some major banks had predicted an over 1% contraction in the economy. Consequently, the decline in the dollar was limited. A separate report showed the core PCE was unchanged. Meanwhile, economists had expected a 0.1% increase. The downbeat data, combined with softer-than-expected inflation, increased expectations for a Fed rate cut in June. On the other hand, data from Canada revealed that the economy contracted by 0.2% compared to expectations of no change. This might also pressure the Bank of Canada to return to rate cuts after pausing at the last meeting. USD/CAD key events today US unemployment claims ISM manufacturing PMI USD/CAD technical forecast: Bears losing momentum On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is caught in a sideways move near the 1.3800 support level. Currently, the price trades below the 30-SMA, indicating that bears are stronger. At the same time, the RSI is in bearish territory below 50. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- Therefore, bears might try to break below and detach from the 1.3800 key level. However, bearish momentum has faded since the downtrend reached the current support. The price started chopping through the 30-SMA with no clear direction. At the same time, the RSI made a bullish divergence, suggesting weakness in the decline. The divergence might allow bulls to take charge by breaking above the SMA and retesting the 1.4050 key level. Meanwhile, if bears regain momentum, USD/CAD will continue its downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/05/01/usd-cad-forecast-fed-pressured-amid-economic-slowdown/
2025-04-30 09:12
The GBP/USD forecast suggests a strong finish for the pound in April. The pound has had a strong month as the dollar collapsed due to Trump’s aggressive tariff policies. Trump eased tariffs on automobiles, boosting the dollar. The GBP/USD forecast suggests a strong finish for the pound in April, with a projected 3.8% gain against the US dollar. However, consumer sentiment remains weak in the UK due to economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, the dollar recovered slightly on Tuesday after Trump eased automobile tariffs. If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- The pound has had a strong month as the dollar has collapsed due to Trump’s aggressive tariff policies. The reciprocal tariffs at the start of the month did the most damage to the dollar. Market participants dumped US assets, and consumer confidence plunged. Despite a 90-day pause, Trump escalated a trade war with China, raising concerns of a US recession. However, as the month ended, the US president softened his stance. He showed readiness to lower tariffs on China and start negotiations. Moreover, on Tuesday, he eased automobile tariffs, boosting the dollar. Meanwhile, there is progress on trade deals to avoid reciprocal tariffs with countries like India. Despite the rally in the pound, data on Wednesday revealed weak business sentiment. At the same time, experts believe Trump’s tariffs will hurt growth. Therefore, the rally might slow down in the coming month. GBP/USD key events today ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Advance GDP q/q Employment Cost Index q/q Core PCE Price Index m/m GBP/USD technical forecast: Bullish momentum fades at the 1.3401 resistance On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has punctured the 1.3401 resistance level to make a higher high in the uptrend. However, bulls were unable to sustain a strong move above the level, and it pulled back. Still, the price trades above the 30-SMA and the RSI is above 50, supporting a bullish bias. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- GBP/USD has maintained a steep rally, keeping above the 30-SMA. However, the rally shallowed when the price met the 1.3401 resistance. At the same time, bulls weakened, and the price broke below the 30-SMA. Although they recovered, the RSI has made a bearish divergence, indicating weaker momentum. Therefore, bears might reverse the trend by breaking below the SMA and the 1.3200 support. However, if bulls regain momentum, the price will break above 1.3401, continuing the uptrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/30/gbp-usd-forecast-pound-poised-for-solid-monthly-gains/
2025-04-30 08:11
The AUD/USD price analysis points north after hotter-than-expected inflation in Australia. The dollar rebounded on Tuesday after Trump eased tariffs on automobiles. Data revealed fewer US job vacancies. The AUD/USD price analysis points north after hotter-than-expected inflation in Australia lowered bets on an aggressive RBA rate cut. Meanwhile, the dollar held steady after Trump eased tariffs on automobiles, easing concerns about a global recession. If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- Data released on Wednesday revealed that inflation in Australia rose by 0.9% in the first quarter, higher than the estimated 0.8%. Meanwhile, the annual figure increased by 2.4%, compared to the forecasted 2.3% increase. The upbeat data prompted traders to dial back bets for an aggressive RBA rate cut in May. However, the report also showed that annual core inflation dropped to a 3-year low of 2.9% from 3.3%. This kept alive expectations for a 25-bps rate cut in May. The Reserve Bank of Australia paused at its last meeting. However, it was clear that policymakers were worried about global growth. Trump’s tariffs have dimmed the outlook for growth in most economies. Meanwhile, the dollar rebounded on Tuesday after Trump eased tariffs on automobiles. His softer stance has boosted demand for the US currency. However, data revealed fewer US job vacancies, pointing to weaker demand in the labor market. AUD/USD key events US ADP nonfarm employment change US advance GDP q/q US employment cost index q/q US core PCE price index m/m AUD/USD technical price analysis: Consolidating below the 0.6450 resistance On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has maintained its sideways move, chopping through the 30-SMA. Bulls are having a difficult time breaking above a solid resistance zone comprising the 0.6400 and the 0.6450 key levels. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- Moreover, price action shows that neither bulls nor bears are willing to make big moves away from the SMA. Therefore, they are probably waiting for some major catalyst. The RSI has made a bearish divergence, a sign that bullish momentum is fading. Here, bears have a good opportunity to reverse the trend by pushing the price far below the SMA. Such a move would allow AUD/USD to retest the 0.6200 support and the 0.5 Fib retracement level. If this fails, bulls will break past the resistance zone, continuing the uptrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/30/aud-usd-price-analysis-inflation-surprise-tempers-rba-cut-bets/
2025-04-29 09:05
The USD/JPY price analysis indicates an improvement in risk appetite. The US president said he was ready to reduce tariffs on automobiles. India will be the first to sign a trade deal with the US. The USD/JPY price analysis indicates an improvement in risk appetite following Trump’s promise to lower automotive tariffs. At the same time, progress on trade negotiations with countries like India has reduced the risk of a global trade war. However, the dollar remains fragile amid uncertainty over the fate of trade talks between the US and China. If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- The US president said he was ready to reduce tariffs on automobiles on Tuesday, slightly easing economic concerns. Trump’s tariff campaign has become less aggressive in recent days as he acknowledges the risk to the economy. Last week, the president criticized the Fed, demanding lower interest rates to support the economy. However, Powell has remained cautious, not giving any clear signals on when the next rate cut will come. This has sobered Trump, leading to his softer stance. Moreover, negotiations with countries that might suffer reciprocal tariffs are ongoing. On Monday, Scott Bessent said India would be the first to sign a deal with the US. As a result, market participants are optimistic about the global economy. However, progress with China has stalled with neither country willing to be the first to cut tariffs. The US is waiting for China to start lowering its tariffs before they do the same. Still, the US has admitted that the current tariffs are unsustainable. Therefore, eventually, one side will have to start the process. USD/JPY key events today US JOLTS job openings USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bulls retest the 30-SMA resistance On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken above and retested a solid resistance trendline. However, it has returned below the 30-SMA, and the RSI is now under 50. Still, bulls are challenging the SMA resistance. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- USD/JPY has been on a decline since bears took the lead at the top of the chart. The price mostly stayed below the 30-SMA. Moreover, the highs of the downtrend respected a clear resistance trendline. However, things changed after the price reached the 140.01 support level. Here, bulls became stronger, pushing the price above the 30-SMA and the trendline. Furthermore, the price pulled back to retest the line. From here, bulls must break above the 144.02 resistance to make a higher high and confirm an uptrend. Otherwise, the downtrend will continue. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/29/usd-jpy-price-analysis-auto-tariff-easing-boosts-sentiment/
2025-04-29 08:08
The AUD/USD forecast shows thin trading amid tariff uncertainty. Scott Bessent said that China was the one to initiate a de-escalation in tariffs. US employment figures might show the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the economy. The AUD/USD forecast shows thin trading amid uncertainty regarding trade negotiations between China and the US. Moreover, market participants are remaining on the sidelines ahead of key US economic data. If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- The AUD/USD drifted on Tuesday amid mixed signals from the US on trade talks with China. The greenback steadied last week as the US and China adopted softer stances on tariffs. However, messaging from the two countries has been conflicting, sending mixed signals about a trade deal. On Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that China was the one to initiate a de-escalation in tariffs. It is clear that neither country is willing to be the first to lower duties. This could result in a prolonged pause that will continue to harm the global economy. However, there was progress with other countries that briefly supported the dollar. According to Bessent, all is going well, and India will be the first to sign a deal and avoid tariffs. Meanwhile, market participants are awaiting economic data from Australia and the US. Australia’s CPI report will shape the outlook for RBA rate cuts. On the other hand, US employment figures might show the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the economy. A downbeat report will pressure the Fed to cut rates and support the economy. AUD/USD key events today JOLTS Job Openings AUD/USD technical forecast: Bulls struggle to make new highs On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is ranging within a solid resistance zone comprising the 0.6400 and the 0.6450 key levels. At the same time, the price is chopping through the 30-SMA, showing bears and bulls are almost equally matched. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- Previously, the price rallied in a steep uptrend above the SMA. Meanwhile, the RSI maintained its position above 50, suggesting solid bullish momentum. However, this changed when bulls neared the 0.6400 key psychological level. Price action drew nearer to the SMA, puncturing the line several times. Meanwhile, the RSI made a bearish divergence, indicating fading momentum. If bears take charge, the price will break below the SMA to retest the 0.6200 key level and the 0.5 Fib retracement. On the other hand, the uptrend will continue if bulls break above the current resistance zone. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/29/aud-usd-forecast-prices-drift-amid-us-china-uncertainty/
