2025-03-20 09:10
The EUR/USD price analysis turns bearish despite a dovish Fed. Focus remains on the EU summit and ECB speeches. Technical indicators have started turning south. The EUR/USD price analysis suggests limited upside potential despite solid support found after the Fed’s decision. The pair struggles to hold above 1.0900 as ECB speeches and the EU summit pose uncertainty. If ECB officials turn dovish, the EUR/USD could face fresh downside pressure. On the other hand, a hawkish title could fuel the recent rally. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- The Federal Reserve left its policy rate at 4.25–4.50% in its March meeting. However, it declared a slower QT pace, lowering the UST roll-offs to $5 billion from $25 billion. The decision had been discussed in January, anticipating an increase in debt ceiling and further absorption of Treasury liquidity by June. The Fed’s updated forecast shows a risk of stagflation as GDP growth revised from 2.1% to 1.7% for 2024 and no expansion is expected beyond 2025. Inflation projections also increased to 2.7% amid import tariffs. However, Powell called these “transitory.” Despite a greater uncertainty around GDP and employment, the central bank maintained a median forecast of two rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 and one in 2027. The US Treasuries surged along with Nasdaq while the dollar slipped from the intraday highs. Eurozone bond yields declined as markets digested the Fed’s dovish tilt. Germany’s 10-year bond yields fell 3 bps to 2.77%, around 2-week lows. The 2-year yields, more sensitive to the ECB, fell 2 bps to 2.16%. Traders now expect an ECB deposit rate of 2.02% by December with a 50% probability of a rate cut in April. EUR/USD Technical Price Analysis: Bears Fighting to Take Over 1.0825 The technical picture for EUR/USD seems like turning in favor of bears. The pair has turned back below the 30-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. The RSI is also below the 50.0 mark, showing the potential for a deeper correction. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- The immediate support for the pair emerges at 1.0825. Sustained breakout of the level may change the bullish bias. The price can further dip towards 1.0720. On the flip side, 1.0950 emerges as a tough nut to crack. If bulls manage to break the resistance, the next key level emerges at 1.1000. However, the path of least resistance lies to the downside. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/20/eur-usd-price-analysis-dovish-fed-meets-eurozone-uncertainty/
2025-03-20 08:19
The GBP/USD outlook is slightly weak after mixed employment data. Market participants await BoE to find directional bias. US tariffs and the global economic outlook pose a risk of recession in the UK. The GBP/USD outlook is dented as the London session opened on Thursday. The pair slipped from the 1.3000 level following the release of UK employment data. The recent ONS data shows the unemployment rate steady at 4.4% in three months, meeting expectations. However, the labor market presented a mixed picture, adding uncertainty and leading to the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- The jobless claims surged by 44.2k in February, exceeding expectations of 7.9k by a big margin. Contrarily, employment change for January came at 144k, up from 107k in December. The wage growth data showed a slight change in earnings. Average earnings rose to 5.9% y/y in three months, matching expectations. After the employment data release, the GBP/USD slipped sharply towards the 1.2960 area. The pair briefly broke the 1.3000 level for the third time but couldn’t sustain the momentum as investors await clarity from BoE. Cable’s surge to the 19-week top could tempt dovish members of BoE MPC to urge for a rate cut in the May meet. It is worth asking, as the US tariffs imposed on April 2 could spark a risk of recession in the UK. The recent upside in the GBP/USD could help counteract the upside pressure on the UK CPI that hit a 10-month top of 3% in January, a month when the pair had tested 14-month lows of 1.2160. The BoE is widely expected to maintain the policy rates in today’s meeting. However, investors will assess Governor Baoley’s press conference for future rate projections. With Swati Dhingra and Catherine Mann voting for a cut and Huw Pill and Megan Greene voting for hold, the other five voters will decide the outcome. Inflation concerns remain a key for the central bank. Contracting GDP is another challenge. Swap markets anticipate a 56 bps rate cut by year-end. Governor Bailey had recently highlighted concerns about a global growth slowdown or accelerated disinflation process. The cautious tone of the BoE may lend support to the pound. However, any dovish surprise could exacerbate downside momentum. GBP/USD Technical Outlook: Downside Limited in a Broad Range The GBP/USD price maintains a bullish bias supported by the 30-period SMA. However, the RSI is slowly retreating towards the neutral territory, posing a risk of downside correction. The prices are consolidating within a broad range of 100 pips, with immediate support emerging at 1.2950 ahead of the lower end of the range at 1.2907 and then 1.2860. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- Breaking 1.2860 could alter the bullish trend, and deeper corrections cannot be ruled out. However, the markets seem to lack a catalyst for a meaningful move on either side. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/20/gbp-usd-outlook-retreats-amid-mixed-jobs-data-focus-on-boe/
2025-03-19 10:36
Gold price hits fresh all-time highs amid geopolitics and economic worries. All eyes are on FOMC monetary policy and future projections. Technically, gold is overbought with a correction due to a bullish trend. The gold price tested fresh all-time highs at $3,045 on Wednesday before correcting to the $3,030 area. The heightened political and economic worries have reinforced the safe haven status of gold. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- A major catalyst behind the recent gold surge was the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a key rival of Turkish President Erdogan. His detention was carried out on allegations of corruption and aiding terrorist groups. The political instability in Turkey triggered a risk-off sentiment, pushing investors towards gold. Moreover, the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a concern for the investors. Despite a high-profile call between Trump and Putin, no ceasefire agreement was reached. However, both leaders agreed to halt attacks on energy infrastructure. However, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy rejected the talks, saying that negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine would be ineffective. Traders brace for strong volatility ahead of the FOMC rate decision today. The Federal Reserve is set to release a Summary of Economic Projections, followed by a speech by Fed Chair Powell. Investors will keenly look for the Fed’s 2025 interest rate projections outlook. As per the CME FedWatch tool, the central bank has a 99% probability of holding rates at 4.25% – 4.50%, while there is a 64% chance of a rate cut in June. A shift in policy could influence gold, as higher rates usually weigh on non-yielding assets like gold. Over the past 210 days, the gold has rallied from $2,500 to $3,000, which is faster than historical trends. Usually, it takes around 1700 days for gold to rise to $500. Market participants consider weaker dollar, inflation risk, and geopolitics as key contributors to the aggressive rally. According to the Bank of America’s survey, fund managers have aggressively moved from equities, which signals that gold has become a favorite asset due to higher returns. Gold key events today Federal Funds Rate FOMC Economic Projections FOMC Statement FOMC Press Conference Gold Price Technical Analysis: Mild Correction Ahead of Continuation The 4-hour chart of gold is strongly bullish, with a recent candle retracing down $10-15 from its peak. The RSI value remains in the overbought zone, which shows a potential correction from the top. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- The price is far above the 30-period SMA, a sign of a potential correction. However, the trend remains bullish; any dip could be a buying opportunity. On the downside, $3,000 is now a tough support ahead of $2,980 and then $2,955. On the upside, immediate resistance is $3,045 (an all-time high). https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/19/gold-price-retreats-a-bit-from-new-ath-focus-on-fomc/
2025-03-19 09:42
The USD/JPY price analysis indicates a slight decline in BoJ rate hike expectations. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged as expected on Wednesday. The dollar held steady as market participants prepared for the FOMC policy meeting. The USD/JPY price analysis indicates a slight decline in BoJ rate hike expectations after a cautious tone during the central bank’s policy meeting. The ongoing global trade wars have overshadowed recent upbeat data from Japan. Policymakers are now worried about the likely impact of Trump’s tariffs on the local economy. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged as expected on Wednesday. Moreover, policymakers emphasized the need for time to assess the likely impacts of US trade policies. This means the central bank might be cautious in making any more moves. Nevertheless, Governor Ueda noted that wage growth and consumption were strong. Therefore, economic factors are lining up for more rate hikes. The yen has pulled back sharply from recent peaks due to economic concerns. If Trump’s tariffs affect Japan’s economy, the BoJ will be forced to pause its rate hike campaign to preserve growth. On the other hand, the dollar held steady as market participants geared up for the FOMC policy meeting. Economists expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. Therefore, traders will focus on the messaging for clues on future moves. Recent downbeat US data has raised expectations for rate cuts. However, Trump’s tariff moves have raised inflation expectations. Therefore, the Fed has to balance growth and inflation. USD/JPY key events today Federal Funds Rate FOMC Economic Projections FOMC Statement FOMC Press Conference USD/JPY technical price analysis: Rally pauses after new high On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has paused its rally and pulled back slightly. However, it still sits above the 30-SMA with the RSI above 50, supporting a strong bullish bias. Moreover, the price still trades in a bullish channel. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- The pause might allow the price to retest the channel’s support and the 149.00 level before the rally continues. The next target for bulls is at the 151.01 resistance level. A break above this level will strengthen the bullish bias. On the other hand, if bears overpower bulls, they might push the price below the 30-SMA and the channel support. Such an outcome would indicate a bearish shift in sentiment. It would allow USD/JPY to revisit the 147.02 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/19/usd-jpy-price-analysis-boj-caution-tempers-rate-hike-odds/
2025-03-18 10:38
The USD/JPY price analysis shows the yen losing its shine. Trump’s tariffs might hurt Japan’s export-reliant economy. US sales increased by 0.2% compared to estimates of a 0.6% rise. The USD/JPY price analysis shows the yen losing its shine amid uncertainty regarding the impacts of Trump’s tariffs on Japan’s economy. At the same time, market participants are gearing up for the Bank of Japan and Fed policy meetings. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- Initially, the yen gained amid trade war fears and tariff uncertainty. Traders rushed to the safe-haven currency as Trump ignited more trade wars. However, the focus has now shifted to Japan’s export-reliant economy. Eventually, Trump’s tariffs will affect most of the US’s trading partners. Therefore, Japan is also at risk of a slowdown in case of a trade war. Such an outcome would force the Bank of Japan to rethink its policy path. Recent policymaker remarks have shown a hawkish outlook and pushed up rate hike expectations. However, Trump is reshaping the outlook for monetary policy in most major economies. Therefore, traders will closely follow the BoJ meeting to see whether the tone has changed. A less hawkish tone will further hurt the yen. On the other hand, the dollar found relief against the yen despite more downbeat US economic data. US sales increased by 0.2% compared to estimates of a 0.6% rise. Nevertheless, traders expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday. USD/JPY key events today Market participants do not expect key reports from Japan or the US. All focus is on the BoJ and Fed meetings, due on Wednesday. USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bulls find their feet in a new uptrend On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is on a strong rally after breaking above the 149.00 resistance level. The price trades far above the 30-SMA with the RSI near the overbought region, indicating a solid bullish bias. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- At the same time, the price has created a bullish channel with a clear support and resistance trendline. Bulls took charge near the 147.02 support level and broke above the 30-SMA. After this, the price pulled back to retest the SMA before climbing to make a higher high. This confirmed a new bullish trend. Currently, bulls are targeting the channel resistance. Moreover, there is a strong hurdle at the 151.01 level. A break above this level will strengthen the bullish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/18/usd-jpy-price-analysis-yen-loses-traction-amid-economic-whirls/
2025-03-18 08:58
The GBP/USD outlook shows additional signs that the US economy is slowing down. US retail sales increased by 0.2%, missing forecasts of 0.6%. Market participants expect the BoE to keep interest rates unchanged. The GBP/USD outlook shows additional signs that the US economy is slowing down after retail sales came in below estimates. Meanwhile, market participants look forward to the FOMC and BoE policy meeting for more clues on future monetary policy moves. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- Data on Monday revealed that US retail sales increased by 0.2%, missing forecasts of 0.6%. The poor figures indicated weak consumer spending, increasing Fed rate cut expectations. This was another report that raised fears of an economic slowdown. Recent US data has mostly come in below estimates. Employment missed forecasts in February, and inflation data last week was well below estimates. As a result, market participants are pricing slightly over two Fed rate cuts this year. However, there is caution due to uncertainty regarding Trump’s tariffs. The subsequent trade wars might increase inflation, forcing the Fed to keep interest rates elevated. Moreover, inflation expectations have risen sharply since Trump took office. Traders expect the Fed to pause on Wednesday. On the other hand, the pound was steady due to the weaker dollar. Moreover, market participants expect the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged this week. GBP/USD key events today Market participants do not expect any high-impact economic releases from the UK or the US. Therefore, the price might consolidate. GBP/USD technical outlook: Bulls meet a solid hurdle at 1.3001 On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has paused its rally near the 1.3001 resistance level. However, the bullish bias remains intact since the price sits above the 30-SMA with the RSI above 50. However, price action has shown some weakness since bulls broke above the 1.2851 resistance level. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- The slope of the uptrend shallowed, and the price started trading near the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI made a bearish divergence, indicating weaker momentum. Bears will resurface at the 1.3001 resistance to push the price below the SMA if this divergence plays out. Such an outcome could mean a deep pullback or a reversal. Therefore, the price would likely retest the 1.2851 support. On the other hand, if bulls regain momentum, the price will break above the 1.3001 resistance to make a new high in the uptrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/18/gbp-usd-outlook-dollar-slips-further-after-us-retail-sales/
