2025-03-11 08:29
The AUD/USD outlook suggests weak risk appetite. Trump has assumed an aggressive approach to tariffs, threatening the US economy. Market participants will focus on US inflation data for more clues on Fed rate cuts. The AUD/USD outlook suggests weak risk appetite as Trump’s tariffs drive fears of a US recession. Consequently, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar fell as traders preferred safer currencies like the yen. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Initially, the Australian dollar rallied against the dollar after a downbeat US employment data. Friday’s jobs report increased expectations of Fed rate cuts this year. Moreover, it briefly shifted the market focus from Trump’s tariffs. However, as the new week started, jitters about a US recession due to trade wars returned. Trump has assumed an aggressive approach to tariffs, threatening the US and other major economies like Canada and China. Last week, the US president added tariffs to China, dimming the outlook for the economy. As a result, the yuan collapsed, pulling the Australian dollar as well. The trade war between China and the US will keep weighing on the Aussie, a proxy for the yuan. This week, market participants will focus on US inflation data for more clues on Fed rate cuts. Economists expect a slight easing, with the monthly figure easing from 0.5% to 0.3%. Meanwhile, the annual figure might come in softer at 2.9%. Softer-than-expected figures will solidify expectations for rate cuts this year, further weighing on the dollar. On the other hand, an upbeat report might ease pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs. AUD/USD key events today JOLTS Job Openings AUD/USD technical outlook: Bears eye the 0.6200 support level On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has broken below the 30-SMA, indicating a bearish shift in sentiment. At the same time, the RSI has broken below 50, indicating stronger bearish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Initially, bulls had taken charge when the price paused at the 0.6200 support level. The RSI showed that bears were weak as it made a bullish divergence. However, they failed to break past the 0.6350 resistance level after the takeover. However, bulls have time to resume the rally by breaking above 0.6350 to make a higher high. On the other hand, if bears remain in the lead, the price will soon reach the 0.6200 support level. A break below this level will confirm a downtrend as it would make a lower low. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/11/aud-usd-outlook-risk-appetite-dips-as-economic-worries-mount/
2025-03-10 10:06
The USD/CAD outlook shows tariff fears outweighing the impact of economic data. The US economy recorded softer-than-expected job growth in February. Traders expect the Bank of Canada to deliver another rate cut. The USD/CAD outlook shows tariff fears outweighing the impact of economic data. Despite downbeat employment data, the dollar strengthened against the Canadian dollar as traders feared the effects of Trump’s tariffs on Canada’s economy. At the same time, market participants expect another BoC rate cut this week. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The loonie fluctuated last week amid uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs. At first, the currency plunged when the US president implemented a 25% tariff on Canadian goods. However, it rebounded when he suspended the duty for another month. The uncertainty has affected Canada’s outlook on the economy. Moreover, the ever-present risk of a trade war between Canada and the US has reduced risk appetite. As a result, the loonie fell on Friday despite a rally in other currencies amid weak US data. The US economy recorded softer-than-expected job growth in February. At the same time, the unemployment rate increased from 4.0% to 4.1%. The greenback collapsed in the broader market as traders moved to price three Fed rate cuts this year. This week, the CPI and PPI reports will shape the outlook for rate cuts. On the other hand, the Canadian economy recorded soft job growth. However, the unemployment rate came in below estimates. Meanwhile, traders expect the Bank of Canada to deliver another rate cut during Wednesday’s meeting. USD/CAD key events today Neither the US nor Canada will release any key report today. Therefore, market participants will keep digesting last week’s events. USD/CAD technical outlook: Bulls gear up for a break above the SMA On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has bounced off the 1.4301 support level and is testing the 30-SMA resistance. Although bulls have not yet broken above the SMA, the RSI trades above 50, indicating stronger bullish momentum. Therefore, USD/CAD might soon breach the 30-SMA resistance. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- If this happens, the price will be free to climb and retest the 1.4501 resistance level. A break above this level will make a higher high, continuing the previous bullish trend. This will allow USD/CAD to challenge the 1.4700 resistance level. However, if 1.4501 holds firm, the price might fall back below the SMA to challenge the 1.4301 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/10/usd-cad-outlook-tariff-concerns-eclipse-economic-data-signals/
2025-03-10 08:31
The USD/JPY forecast shows higher demand for the yen. The yen rallied last week amid uncertainty regarding the global economy. The US economy added a smaller-than-expected 151,000 new jobs in February. The USD/JPY forecast shows higher demand for the yen due to US trade policy uncertainty and a weak dollar. Market participants remain concerned about the impacts of Trump’s tariffs on the global economy. At the same time, labor market data on Friday confirmed fears of a slowdown in the US economy. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Last week, the yen rallied as uncertainty regarding the global economy led to a migration from risky assets. Trump initially implemented tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico, causing panic in the market. However, he later suspended tariffs on Canada and Mexico for another month. Still, it was not enough to ease trade war fears since Canada and Mexico are ready to respond to tariffs. Moreover, starting in April, Trump promised a reciprocal tariff on more countries. Elsewhere, data on Friday revealed that the US economy added 151,000 new jobs in February. This number came in below the forecast of 159,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, above estimates of 4.0%. The weak labor market data increased expectations for Fed rate cuts. Currently, traders are pricing three rate cuts in 2025. The more dovish outlook has weighed on Treasury yields and the dollar. USD/JPY key events today Market participants do not expect any high-impact reports from the US or Japan. Therefore, the price might consolidate. USD/JPY technical forecast: Bears looking to break the 147.00 support On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has paused near the 147.00 support level. However, it remains below the 30-SMA, with the RSI under 50, supporting a bearish bias. The price maintained a downtrend below the 30-SMA until it reached the 149.00 key level. There was a consolidation period as the price broke above the SMA. However, bears resumed the previous downtrend when the price eventually broke below the 149.00 support level. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Therefore, the pause at the 147.00 level might only be brief to allow bears to rest and the SMA to catch up. Given the strong bearish bias, the price might soon break below 147.00 to retest the 145.00 support level. The downtrend will continue as long as the price keeps making lower highs and lows. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/10/usd-jpy-forecast-tariffs-weaker-dollar-boost-yen/
2025-03-08 16:48
The GBP/USD weekly forecast shows a rebound in the pound. US Job growth slowed down slightly in February. The US unemployment rate increased from 4.0% to 4.1%. The GBP/USD weekly forecast shows a rebound in the pound as the dollar drops amid soft NFP and tariff uncertainty. Ups and downs of GBP/USD The GBP/USD price had a bullish week as the pound soared against a weak dollar. The greenback collapsed as market participants grew fearful of a US economic slowdown. On Tuesday, Trump implemented tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. Although he suspended some of these tariffs, traders worried that trade wars would hurt the US economy. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, Fed rate cut expectations increased after US nonfarm payrolls came in lower than expected. Job growth slowed down slightly. At the same time, the unemployment rate increased from 4.0% to 4.1%. More downbeat data next week could push traders to start pricing three rate cuts this year. Next week’s key events for GBP/USD Next week, the US will release its CPI and PPI reports, showing the state of inflation. Meanwhile, the UK will release data on manufacturing production and gross domestic product. The inflation data will shape the outlook for Fed rate cuts. Economists expect inflation to ease from the previous month. Such an outcome would align with recent data showing a slowdown in the US economy. Therefore, it would increase Fed rate cut expectations, boosting GBP/USD. Meanwhile, UK data will show the health of the UK economy and shape the outlook for Bank of England monetary policy. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls meet the 0.618 Fib hurdle On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken above the 1.2800 key resistance level. This move has pushed the price far above the 22-SMA, with the RSI in the overbought region, indicating solid bullish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The price recently reversed after a strong downtrend. Since the reversal, bulls have maintained their position above the 22-SMA, constantly reaching new highs. However, the current high has fallen near the 0.618 Fib retracement level. This might act as a solid resistance. Therefore, GBP/USD might pull back to retest the recently broken 1.2800 key level. A deeper pullback would retest the 22-SMA. However, as long as the price stays above the SMA and the RSI above 50, the bullish trend will continue. Therefore, GBP/USD might reach the 1.3201 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/08/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-dollar-slips-on-economic-uncertainty/
2025-03-08 16:45
The USD/CAD weekly forecast indicates tariff uncertainty in Canada. The loonie collapsed after Trump implemented a 25% tariff on goods from Canada. The US economy dimmed with more tariffs. The USD/CAD weekly forecast is unclear ahead of Bank of Canada’s potential rate cut and softer US dollar. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The USD/CAD price had a bearish week as the loonie fluctuated and ended strong amid tariff uncertainty. Market participants also focused on employment data from the US and Canada. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The loonie collapsed on Tuesday after Trump implemented a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico. However, on Thursday, the president suspended these tariffs for another month, giving relief to Canada’s currency. Meanwhile, data revealed a mixed picture of Canada’s economy as job growth slowed and unemployment fell. On the other hand, the dollar eased as the outlook for the US economy dimmed with more tariffs. Moreover, weak employment data increased Fed rate cut expectations. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week, market participants will focus on US consumer and wholesale inflation data. Additionally, they will focus on the Bank of Canada policy meeting. US inflation numbers will play a significant role in shaping the outlook for Fed rate cuts. Last month, inflation exceeded estimates, leading to a sharp drop in rate cut expectations. This month, economists expect softer inflation, with the annual figure at 2.9% and the monthly figure at 0.3%. Meanwhile, traders are pricing a 73% chance that the Bank of Canada will lower borrowing costs again on Wednesday. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Bulls struggle to take back control On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is bouncing higher after retesting the 22-SMA as support. At the same time, the RSI has retested the pivotal 50 level and is ready to climb. This suggests a bullish bias. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Previously, the price traded in a bullish trend, keeping above the 22-SMA. However, the uptrend paused when bulls failed to break above the 1.4501 resistance level. At one point, the price punctured the resistance but fell back sharply, indicating a rejection of higher prices. This led to a break below the 22-SMA, showing a bearish shift in sentiment. However, bears only managed to hold control to the 1.4150 support level. Here, bulls returned with renewed momentum and took back control. However, the 1.4501 is still a solid hurdle. A break above this level will allow the uptrend to reach the 1.4801 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/08/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-sellers-joy-amid-boc-cut-tariffs/
2025-03-07 11:51
The EUR/USD price analysis indicates a decline in ECB rate cut expectations. The European Central Bank lowered borrowing costs by 25-bps as expected. Market participants are awaiting the US NFP report. The EUR/USD price analysis indicates a decline in ECB rate cut expectations after the central bank upgraded its inflation forecasts. As a result, the euro has extended gains to reach new highs. Meanwhile, market participants waited eagerly for the US monthly employment report, which will guide the outlook for Fed rate cuts. On Thursday, the European Central Bank lowered borrowing costs by 25-bps as expected. However, the euro rose after the central bank projections revealed an upgrade in the inflation outlook. Policymakers projected inflation at 2.3% this year, compared to the last forecast of 2.1%. As a result, market participants slashed bets for more ECB rate cuts. Currently, traders expect only two more cuts this year. Furthermore, optimism about Germany’s new spending plans kept the euro in high spirits. A 50 billion euro fund will likely boost growth in the Eurozone. However, it might also lead to a spike in inflation that would cause the ECB to assume a more cautious stance. Meanwhile, the dollar remained fragile as ongoing trade wars dimmed the outlook for the economy. At the same time, market participants expect the US NFP report to shape the outlook for Fed rate cuts. EUR/USD key events today US average hourly earnings m/m US nonfarm employment change US unemployment rate Fed Chair Powell Speaks EUR/USD technical price analysis: RSI indicates exhaustion On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has bounced higher, continuing the bullish rally. The price still trades far above the 30-SMA with the RSI in the overbought region. However, the RSI has made a slight bearish divergence, a sign that bulls are getting exhausted. Therefore, the price might pause for a deeper pullback at the next resistance level. The next hurdle is at the 1.0901 level. If the bullish trend pauses at this level, the price will likely drop to retest the 1.0701 level as support. This might coincide with the 30-SMA. If this support zone holds firm, bulls will seek new highs above the 1.0901 level. However, if the price breaks below the support, it will indicate a bearish shift in sentiment, allowing EUR/USD to fall back to the 1.0500 key support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/07/eur-usd-price-analysis-inflation-outlook-halts-rate-cut-odds/
