2025-03-25 12:17

The GBP/USD price analysis indicates caution ahead of the UK budget reading. Data revealed that the PMI of UK services increased from 51.0 to 53.2. Data indicated a jump in business activity in the US. The GBP/USD price analysis indicates caution ahead of this week’s UK budget reading. However, the dollar remained on the front foot after upbeat US data and news of some tariff relief. On the other hand, an upbeat UK services PMI kept the pound from sliding considerably against the dollar. Market participants are eagerly awaiting a budget update from Rachel Reeves. Moreover, experts believe she will signal lower spending given the recent poor performance in the UK economy. However, an upbeat business activity report on Monday revealed some bright spots in the economy that might relieve the Finance Minister. Notably, data revealed that the services PMI increased from 51.0 to 53.2, beating estimates. The report kept the pound from falling against a broadly stronger dollar. The greenback had a strong rally after data indicated a jump in business activity in the US. The composite PMI rose from 51.6 to 53.5. The upbeat report eased fears of a recession. At the same time, demand for the dollar rose after Trump said he would exempt some countries from the April tariffs. The news helped ease trade war fears, improving sentiment. GBP/USD key events today Traders are not looking forward to any high-impact data from the UK or the US. Therefore, they will keep absorbing recent releases and US tariff developments. GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bears pause below SMA, next target at 1.2851 On the technical side, the GBP/USD price trades below the 30-SMA, with the RSI under 50, indicating a bearish bias. However, the price currently trades in a tight range. The bias recently shifted after the previous bullish trend halted near the 1.3000 key psychological level. Since the uptrend broke above the 1.2851 resistance, the price started sticking close to the SMA, indicating weaker momentum. At the same time, the RSI made a bearish divergence, signaling a looming reversal. After this divergence, bulls had little strength to challenge the 1.3000 key resistance level. As a result, bears returned to push the price below the SMA and the RSI below 50. Currently, they are targeting the 1.2851 support level. A break below this level would strengthen the bearish bias. Moreover, it would allow GBP/USD to reach the 1.2700 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/25/gbp-usd-price-analysis-traders-hold-back-ahead-of-uk-budget/

2025-03-25 08:47

The EUR/USD outlook points south as the dollar regains momentum. The US composite PMI increased from 51.6 to 53.5 in March. Trump said he might exempt some countries from tariffs. The EUR/USD outlook points south as the dollar regains momentum after upbeat data eased recession worries. Notably, business activity in the US improved in March. At the same time, Trump said he might exempt some countries from tariffs starting on April 2. Data from the previous session revealed that the US composite PMI increased from 51.6 to 53.5 in March, showing solid business activity. Most of this increase was in the services sector, where the PMI came in above estimates at 54.3. This was the first upbeat report in a while, and it boosted the dollar, leading to a decline in EUR/USD. Moreover, the dollar rebounded after reports showed that Trump’s tone on tariffs had softened. The US president said he might exempt some countries from the tariffs he proposed for April 2. Market participants expect tariffs on automobile imports and a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico. Additionally, the US might impose a reciprocal tariff on all imports to the country. The news on Trump’s softer stance eased fears of global trade wars and a US recession. However, there is still uncertainty over which countries will get this tariff relief. EUR/USD key events today Market participants are not expecting key releases from the US or the Eurozone today. Consequently, the price might move sideways. EUR/USD technical outlook: Bears may sustain below 1.0800 On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has paused near the 1.0800 key support level. Moreover, the price trades below the 30-SMA, showing bears are in the lead. Meanwhile, the RSI trades below 50, indicating solid bearish momentum. Sentiment shifted when the previous trend failed to go beyond the 1.0950 resistance level. Bulls started showing exhaustion when the price broke above the 1.0800 resistance level. The RSI made a bearish divergence that showed fading bullish momentum. At the same time, the price punctured the SMA, a sign that bears were getting stronger. Therefore, when bulls made another attempt at the 1.0950 resistance, they failed to make a higher high and instead made a double top. The RSI divergence allowed bears to take over with a break below the SMA. However, the price must break below 1.0800 to confirm a new downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/25/eur-usd-outlook-dollar-gains-as-pmis-calm-recession-fears/

2025-03-24 10:12

The USD/JPY outlook indicates a recovering dollar as Treasury yields climb. US yields rose as market participants looked forward to more Trump tariffs starting in April. The BoJ will keep hiking interest rates if inflation continues to rise. The USD/JPY outlook indicates a steady dollar as Treasury yields climb ahead of Trump’s April tariffs. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan’s Governor Ueda emphasized plans to keep hiking rates if the central bank’s inflation target is hit. The USD/JPY eased slightly but held near recent peaks as Treasury yields rebounded. Yields rose as market participants looked forward to more Trump tariffs starting in April. The US is set to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and automobiles. At the same time, Trump promised a reciprocal tariff that would affect more countries relying on trade with the US. These tariffs will increase the cost of goods in the US, which will likely drive inflation higher. Such an outcome would force the Fed to keep interest rates high, supporting yields and the dollar. However, these tariffs will also ignite more trade wars, hurting the global economy. At the same time, a decline in trade between the US and its partners could plunge the country into a recession. Elsewhere, BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank will keep hiking interest rates if inflation continues rising. However, at last week’s meeting, he noted that there would be caution due to tariff uncertainty. USD/JPY key events today US flash manufacturing PMI US flash services PMI USD/JPY technical outlook: Bulls retest recently broken channel support On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken out of its bullish channel after meeting the 150.01 key resistance level. Initially, the price traded above the 30-SMA, consistently making higher highs and lows. However, this changed when bulls reached the 150.01 resistance. Here, the price made a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, indicating a looming sentiment shift. At the same time, this candle broke below the 30-SMA and the channel support line. However, soon after the break, the price rebounded to retest the recently broken channel line, pushing it back above the SMA. If bears return, USD/JPY will drop to make a lower low, indicating a new bearish trend. Such a move would allow bears to retest the 147.02 support level. Meanwhile, if this was a false breakout, the price will soon break above the 150.01 resistance to continue the uptrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/24/usd-jpy-outlook-higher-yields-support-us-dollar/

2025-03-24 08:52

The USD/CAD forecast shows caution ahead of more US tariffs. Data on Friday revealed weaker-than-expected consumer spending in Canada. Experts believe the dollar will recover with more tariffs. The USD/CAD forecast shows caution as market participants await clarity on Trump’s next tariff moves. The Canadian dollar ended last week higher but remains vulnerable as traders prepare for a 25% tariff on Canadian goods starting in April. Meanwhile, experts believe the dollar might rebound with more tariffs, supporting Treasury yields. The loonie fell on Friday after data revealed weaker-than-expected consumer spending in Canada. Retail sales dropped by 0.6% compared to estimates of a 0.4% decline. The poor report increased expectations of more Bank of Canada rate cuts. At the same time, uncertainty about looming Trump tariffs weighed on the Canadian dollar last week. Trump suspended a 25% tariff on Canada until April. With the start date looming, the outlook for Canada’s economy is dimming. However, there was some relief for Canada’s currency as Wall Street rebounded amid hopes of a softer tariff stance. Trump said he might be open to some flexibility on tariffs. On the other hand, experts believe the dollar will recover with more tariffs. Last week, the greenback rebounded after the Fed meeting, which revealed caution among policymakers. More tariffs will likely support Treasury yields, allowing the dollar to recover. USD/CAD key events today Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI USD/CAD technical forecast: Price pauses near the 30-SMA support On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is facing the 30-SMA line after finding resistance at the 1.4400 resistance level. However, bulls are still in the lead because the price trades slightly above the SMA. On a larger scale, the price is trading in a range between the 1.4275 support and the 1.4525 resistance levels. Moreover, the range has a strong midpoint at the 1.4400 key level. USD/CAD recently retested the range support, which held firm. After this, the price broke above the SMA but paused at the range midpoint. If the price breaks below the SMA, bears will make another attempt at the range support. A breakout will signal the start of a bearish trend. On the other hand, bulls might return to push the price off the 30-SMA and above the 1.4400 resistance. This would allow a retest of the range resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/24/usd-cad-forecast-caution-reigns-as-trumps-tariffs-loom/

2025-03-22 17:35

The USD/CAD weekly forecast indicates uncertainty ahead of Trump’s tariffs. The US and Canada released downbeat retail sales data. The FOMC policy meeting resulted in a pause, as expected. The USD/CAD weekly forecast indicates some uncertainty as traders speculate on the likely impact of Trump’s looming tariffs on Canada. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The USD/CAD price had a bearish close but ended the week well above its lows. The price fluctuated as market participants digested economic data and policy announcements. Moreover, traders were gearing up for more Trump tariffs that could ignite more trade wars. The US and Canada released downbeat retail sales data, indicating weaker-than-expected consumer spending in both countries. Meanwhile, the FOMC policy meeting resulted in a pause, as expected. However, Powell restated that there was no rush to lower borrowing costs given the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade policies. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week, traders will monitor reports from the US on durable goods and gross domestic product. Meanwhile, Canada will release its GDP report. The GDP reports will contain clues on the health of the US and Canada’s economies. The US has experienced weak demand, with recent reports showing weaker employment, inflation, and sales. A weak GDP report will pressure the Fed to lower borrowing costs. On the other hand, Canada’s economy faces the threat of punitive US tariffs. Therefore, the Bank of Canada is already under immense pressure to preserve growth. A downbeat GDP report would increase rate-cut expectations. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Bulls and bears battle around 22-SMA On the technical side, the USD/CAD price remains in a tight range between the 1.4150 support and the 1.4501 resistance levels. Within this consolidation, the price trades in the middle, near the 22-SMA, showing neither bears nor bulls have the upper hand. Next week, the price will detach from the SMA. If it trades above, bulls will retest the range resistance, aiming for higher highs. On the other hand, if the price trades below the SMA, it will revisit the range support, targeting lower lows. However, there is a higher chance that bulls will win this battle because the price was in an uptrend before it paused. Therefore, the range might only be a brief stop for bulls as they regain momentum. A break above the range resistance will allow USD/CAD to retest the 1.4804 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/22/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-traders-on-edge-as-tariffs-loom/

2025-03-22 17:32

The EUR/USD weekly forecast is turning bearish due to the looming April tariffs. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as expected. Fed policymakers maintained the call for patience amid tariff uncertainty. The EUR/USD weekly forecast is turning bearish as looming April tariffs threaten the outlook for major economies, including the Eurozone. Ups and downs of EUR/USD The euro had a bearish week as the dollar rebounded due to a cautious Fed and ahead of April’s reciprocal tariffs. However, at the start of the week, retail sales data revealed weak consumer spending in the US. On Wednesday, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected. Moreover, policymakers projected two rate cuts this year, maintaining the previous forecast. Policymakers maintained the call for patience amid tariff uncertainty. As a result, the dollar found some support. Meanwhile, market participants were looking forward to reciprocal tariffs starting in April. More tariffs will likely increase inflation expectations, forcing the Fed to remain cautious. Next week’s key events for EUR/USD Next week, market participants will focus on economic releases from the US, including durable goods orders and gross domestic product. The GDP report will show the economy’s health and influence the outlook for Fed rate cuts. Recent data has shown a slowdown in the US economy. Therefore, there is a high chance this trend will continue with downbeat GDP data. Such an outcome would increase expectations for Fed rate cuts, weighing on the dollar. EUR/USD weekly technical forecast: Brief pullback after sharp rally On the technical side, the EUR/USD price is pulling back after meeting the 1.0901 resistance level. However, the bullish bias remains intact since the price is above the 22-SMA. Moreover, the RSI trades above 50, suggesting strong bullish momentum. Bulls took charge after a period of consolidation at the bottom of the chart. The price pushed above the 22-SMA and started making higher highs and lows. At the same time, it broke above the 1.0603 resistance and punctured the 1.0901 level. Currently, the price is retreating to retest the 22-SMA support. After such a steep rally, bulls have temporarily given up control. However, the decline might not go past the SMA. When bulls return, EUR/USD will likely rebound to retest the 1.0901. A break above this level will make a higher high, continuing the uptrend. Additionally, it will clear the path to the 1.1200 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/22/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-eu-globe-brace-for-april-tariff/