2025-03-04 07:55
The USD/CAD outlook shows widening fears of trade wars. Trump’s 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico took effect Tuesday. The US president imposed an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. The USD/CAD outlook shows widening fears of trade wars after Trump implemented tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico. The fears have pushed traders to buy the safe-haven dollar. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar has collapsed to a one-month low on the prospects of a weaker economy and lower borrowing costs. Trump’s 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico came into effect on Tuesday, raising fears of trade wars between these nations. At the same time, the US president imposed an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Canada has promised retaliatory tariffs on US imports that could increase tensions between the two countries. The 25% tariff will significantly impact Canada’s economy as the country exports nearly 75% of its goods to the US. The Bank of Canada has worked tirelessly to spur the fragile economy with lower borrowing costs. Moreover, recent economic data has shown a rebound. Therefore, Trump’s tariff will undo most of this work, forcing the BoC to assume a more aggressive stance on rate cuts. Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened along with Treasury yields as market participants sought safety due to trade war fears. Manufacturing PMI data in the previous session had little impact on the currency as it aligned with expectations. USD/CAD key events today Market participants do not expect any key economic reports today. Therefore, they will keep digesting the impacts of Trump’s tariffs. USD/CAD technical outlook: Price breaks past 0.5 Fib, eying 1.4600 On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has bounced off the 30-SMA with a massive bullish candle, indicating a surge in momentum. Moreover, the price has broken above the 0.5 Fib level that had previously acted as a solid resistance. This level allowed the price to retest the 1.4400 support level. USD/CAD can now climb to the next resistance at the 1.4600 level. If the bullish bias remains, the uptrend will continue past 1.4600. However, the RSI has reached the overbought region several times and has shown some weakness. Bulls might be exhausted after the steep climb from the 1.1.4150 support level. Therefore, the price might pause at the next resistance as bulls rest. Moreover, after such a sharp rally, the price might pause for long or consolidate before it continues higher. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/04/usd-cad-outlook-trade-tensions-escalate-with-new-tariffs/
2025-03-03 10:04
The USD/CAD outlook indicates unexpected strength in Canada’s economy. The outlook for Canada’s economy remains gloomy. PCE data revealed a decline in US consumer spending. The USD/CAD outlook indicates unexpected strength in Canada’s economy that has paused the loonie’s recent decline. However, the outlook for the currency remains bleak as market participants expect Trump’s tariffs to start this month. On the other hand, the dollar eased slightly on Friday after data revealed weak consumer spending. Data on Friday revealed that Canada’s economy expanded by 2.6% annually, compared to estimates of 1.8%. The upbeat report showed recent BoC rate cuts had revived growth. At the same time, it stemmed declines in the loonie after Trump confirmed that his tariff on Canada would start this month. However, the outlook for Canada’s economy remains gloomy since a 25% tariff will significantly hurt demand. Canada exports nearly 75% of its goods to the US. The tariff would pressure the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates further and support the economy. This, in turn, will be bearish for the Canadian dollar. On the other hand, a response from Canada would likely lead to a trade war between the two nations that would hurt risk appetite. The dollar paused its climb against the loonie after PCE data revealed a decline in US consumer spending. As a result, market participants are pricing a higher likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June. USD/CAD key events today US ISM Manufacturing PMI USD/CAD technical outlook: Sharp bullish move halts at 0.5 Fib level On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is in a strong, bullish move and has broken above the 1.4400 resistance level. It trades above the 30-SMA, and the RSI is near the overbought region, suggesting a solid bullish bias. However, bulls have met a solid hurdle at the 0.5 Fib retracement level. This might cause a pullback to the 30-SMA. Nevertheless, if bulls remain strong, the price will bounce off the SMA and break above the Fibonacci level to continue the uptrend. Moreover, bulls will have a clear path to the 1.4600 resistance level. On the other hand, if the Fib level holds firm and the price breaks below the 30-SMA, it will indicate a bearish sentiment shift. This would allow USD/CAD to revisit the pivotal 1.4150 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/03/usd-cad-outlook-cad-steadies-as-canadas-gdp-surprises/
2025-03-03 08:30
The EUR/USD forecast shows a rebound in the euro. The meeting between the US president and Ukraine’s president went south. Market participants are pricing a 79% chance of a Fed rate cut in June The EUR/USD forecast shows a rebound in the euro after Britain came in to support Ukraine in its bid to end the war. Meanwhile, the dollar remained fragile after inflation data revealed weak consumer spending, raising Fed rate cut expectations. The euro collapsed on Friday after an anticipated meeting between the US president and Ukraine’s president went south. The hope of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine through the US president has supported the Eurozone currency in recent weeks. However, things soured when Ukraine got suspicious of a secret deal between the US and Russia. Moreover, Zelenskiy complained that Putin was filling Trump with lies. As a result, tensions arose between Trump and Zelenskiy. Their meeting on Friday ended badly as the top leaders exchanged harsh words. Consequently, hopes of a near-term peace deal collapsed. However, a meeting between Ukraine and Britain revived these hopes. Europe is ready to facilitate a deal between Ukraine and the US to end the war. Market participants will monitor further developments that will impact the euro. On the other hand, Fed rate cut bets rose on Friday after data revealed a drop in US consumer spending. Market participants are now pricing a 79% chance of a cut in June, compared to 70% before the PCE report. Meanwhile, inflation came in line with expectations. EUR/USD key events today ISM Manufacturing PMI EUR/USD technical forecast: Bears stall at 0.5 Fib retracement On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has paused near the 1.0400 key psychological level. The pause comes after a steep decline showing a bearish sentiment shift. The price trades below the 30-SMA, showing bears are in the lead. Meanwhile, the RSI sits below 50 in bearish territory. The decline paused when bears met a solid support zone comprising the 0.5 Fib retracement level and the 1.0400 key level. In this pause, bulls resurfaced, leading to a slight rebound. EUR/USD might retest the 30-SMA resistance before continuing lower. If the SMA holds firm, the price will retest the support zone. A break below this zone would allow bears to target the 1.0301 support level. On the other hand, if the zone holds firm, the price will break above the SMA to retest the 1.0500 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/03/eur-usd-forecast-euro-soars-as-uk-rallies-behind-ukraine/
2025-03-01 16:55
The USD/CAD weekly forecast indicates a dim outlook for Canada’s economy. US tariffs on Canadian goods will come into effect in March. The dollar surged as traders sought safety amid economic uncertainty. The USD/CAD weekly forecast indicates a dim outlook for Canada’s economy as Trump plans to implement a 25% tariff in March. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The USD/CAD pair had a bullish week as the dollar rebounded amid safe-haven inflows. This week, the dollar was on the front foot as Trump maintained his aggressive push for tariffs in Canada and Mexico. The US president surprised markets by saying the tariffs would come into effect in March. Analysts had expected another delay to April. As a result, fears of a weaker economy in Canada amid lower demand hurt the loonie. On the other hand, the dollar surged as traders sought safety amid economic uncertainty. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Market participants are looking forward to key reports from the US, including manufacturing PMI and employment. Meanwhile, Canada will only release its monthly employment figures. Traders will keenly monitor employment numbers from the US and Canada to determine what the Fed and the Bank of Canada will do in the near future. Upbeat reports will lower bets for rate cuts. Meanwhile, a downbeat report will pressure both central banks to cut borrowing costs. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Bulls resurface, targeting 1.4804 On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has bounced back after an attempt by bears to reverse the trend. The price has broken above the 30-SMA, indicating a bullish shift in sentiment. At the same time, the RSI now trades above 50, suggesting solid bullish momentum. The previous bullish trend paused just below the 1.4804 resistance level. The price had made a strong bullish gap to this level. However, bears emerged with stronger momentum, closing the gap and forming a bearish engulfing candle. This sudden strength pushed the price below the SMA, challenging the uptrend. However, bears could not push the price beyond the 1.4150 support level, allowing bulls to return to the market. This return might only be brief to retest the 1.4804 resistance. However, it might also allow USD/CAD to continue its previous bullish trend. If bulls maintain their position above the 1.4400 key level, the price will revisit the 1.4804 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/01/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-march-tariff-plans-suppress-loonie/
2025-03-01 16:51
The EUR/USD weekly forecast shows an increasing chance of tariffs on Eurozone goods. Trump confirmed that the 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico would be effective in March. Traders will watch US employment data next week. The EUR/USD weekly forecast shows a growing likelihood of tariffs on Eurozone goods that would weigh on the euro. Ups and downs of EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair had a bullish week as traders focused on Trump’s trade policies. The week had few significant economic releases, putting all focus on Trump’s speeches. The US president caused concerns about the global economy when he confirmed that the 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico would be effective in March. Traders who had expected further delays to April panicked and rushed to the safe-haven dollar. Moreover, Trump threatened the Eurozone with a similar tariff. Next week’s key events for EUR/USD Next week, market participants will focus on data from the US, including business activity in the manufacturing sector and employment. Business activity in the manufacturing sector has rebounded in recent months. If this trend continues, it will indicate a resilient economy. Meanwhile, the US nonfarm payrolls report will play a massive role in shaping the outlook for Fed rate cuts. In the previous month, job growth slowed slightly to 143,000. However, the unemployment rate also fell, showing the labor market remained resilient. Another upbeat report will lower expectations for Fed rate cuts. On the other hand, softness in the labor market could push traders to price three cuts this year. EUR/USD weekly technical forecast: Bears set sights on 1.0200 support On the technical side, the EUR/USD price is bouncing lower after meeting the 1.0500 key resistance level. At the same time, the price has broken below the 22-SMA, showing bears have taken the lead. Meanwhile, the RSI has broken below 50, indicating stronger bearish momentum. EUR/USD is in a corrective move after a steep downtrend. The price has paused to consolidate between the 1.0500 resistance and the 1.0200 support. Therefore, bears will likely retest the range support in the coming week. Meanwhile, the price would have to break below the range support to confirm a continuation of the previous downtrend. Such a move could clear the path to parity. On the other hand, if the support holds firm, the price might remain in consolidation for longer. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/01/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-euro-at-risk-as-trade-tariffs-loom/
2025-02-28 08:32
The USD/JPY price analysis shows a retreating yen. Core consumer prices in Tokyo increased by 2.2%, missing forecasts. Trump confirmed tariffs on Canada and Mexico would take effect in March. The USD/JPY price analysis shows a retreating yen after data revealed softer-than-expected inflation in Japan. Meanwhile, the dollar was on the front foot after Trump confirmed the implementation of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Data on Friday showed cooler inflation in Japan in January. Core consumer prices in Tokyo increased by 2.2%, missing forecasts of 2.3%. At the same time, this dropped from the previous month when it increased by 2.5%. As a result, the yen paused its recent Trump-driven rally. Nevertheless, inflation remains above the Bank of Japan’s target. Therefore, it will motivate policymakers to implement more rate hikes. BoJ rate hike expectations and safe-haven demand have propelled the yen in February. Market participants are more optimistic about Japan’s economy, which has supported rate hike bets. Meanwhile, uncertainty about Trump’s policy plans has pushed investors to buy the safe-haven yen. However, on Thursday, Trump confirmed tariffs on Canada and Mexico would take effect in March. As a result, the dollar rebounded against most of its peers. However, it barely gained against the yen, which also got support from safe-haven inflows. Market participants are now looking forward to inflation figures from the US, which will shape the outlook for Fed rate cuts. USD/JPY key events today US core PCE price index m/m USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bullish RSI divergence leads to SMA break On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken above the 30-SMA to indicate a bullish shift in sentiment. However, the price has not made a strong enough move to indicate a trend reversal. Meanwhile, the RSI has broken above 50, indicating stronger bullish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- The previous downtrend showed weakness when it paused near the 149.00 support level. The bears stopped making strong swings below the SMA. At the same time, the price made more wicks, showing rejection below the 149.00 level. Additionally, the RSI showed a bullish divergence, the clearest indication of fading momentum. This allowed bulls to break above the 30-SMA. However, bulls must now break above the 151.00 resistance to start making higher highs and lows. This would confirm a new bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/28/usd-jpy-price-analysis-yen-slips-amid-missed-inflation/
