2025-02-27 10:01
The USD/CAD outlook shows tariff uncertainty. Trump delayed the implementation of a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods. Traders eagerly await the US inflation report due on Friday. The USD/CAD outlook shows tariff uncertainty, which is weighing on the Canadian dollar and strengthening the US dollar. Uncertainty about Canada’s economy amid tariffs has weakened the loonie. On the other hand, uncertainty about the global economy has hurt risk appetite, boosting the dollar. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- This week, Trump sent mixed signals regarding tariffs that caused a lot of uncertainty among traders. The US president proposed a 25% reciprocal tariff on European cars and goods that would significantly hurt the Eurozone economy. However, Trump also delayed the implementation of a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods. The delay gave the Canadian dollar a slight boost. However, the risk of a weak economy due to tariffs puts a lid on gains. The Bank of Canada has expressed worries about the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the economy. The central bank has worked tirelessly to lower borrowing costs and spur economic growth. Therefore, tariffs would undo the progress and pressure the BoC to lower borrowing costs. Meanwhile, market participants are paying attention to economic data from the US. Recent reports have shown weak business activity, raising Fed rate cut expectations. The inflation report due on Friday will provide more clues on the outlook for rate cuts. USD/CAD key events today US prelim GDP q/q US unemployment claims USD/CAD technical outlook: Bulls looking at 1.4400 resistance On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is approaching the 1.4400 resistance after a recent trend reversal. Bulls took charge after the price paused its decline near the 1.4150 support level. As a result, USD/CAD now trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI above 50, supporting a bullish bias. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, the new rally is about to face its first hurdle at the 1.4400 resistance level. A break above this level will strengthen the bullish bias, allowing the price to make higher highs and lows. On the other hand, if the level holds firm, bears might resurface to retest the 1.4150 support level. The bullish bias will remain if the price stays above the 30-SMA. On the other hand, if it breaks below the SMA and the 1.4150 support, the previous downtrend will continue. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/27/usd-cad-outlook-tariff-uncertainty-drags-down-loonie/
2025-02-27 08:14
The AUD/USD forecast points south due to a downbeat inflation report from Australia. Traders are pricing a less than 20% chance of an RBA rate cut in April. Trump promised to impose a 25% reciprocal tariff on European cars and goods. The AUD/USD forecast points south as the Aussie dollar remains under pressure after a downbeat inflation report from Australia. Meanwhile, the dollar remained range-bound after Trump’s mixed tariff policy messages. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Data from the previous session revealed that inflation in Australia fell by 0.2% in January compared to an increase of 0.8% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the annual figure came in at 2.5%, missing estimates of 2.6%. The downbeat data supported expectations for more Reserve Bank of Australia rate cuts this year. Currently, traders are pricing a less than 20% chance of a rate cut in April. Meanwhile, there is a 100% chance that the central bank will lower borrowing costs in July. More downbeat data could increase the chances of an April rate cut. On the other hand, traders were digesting mixed tariff signals from Trump, which kept the dollar in a range. Trump promised to impose a 25% reciprocal tariff on European cars and goods. Meanwhile, he also delayed the implementation of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, leaving currency traders undecided about the future. Market participants await US inflation data on Friday for more clues on Fed rate cuts. Traders are pricing 58-bps of rate cuts this year. AUD/USD key events today US preliminary GDP q/q US unemployment claims AUD/USD technical forecast: Bears stall at 0.6300 support On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is on the verge of breaking below the 0.6300 support level. Moreover, it trades far below the 30-SMA with the RSI near the oversold region, indicating a strong bearish bias. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- The trend recently reversed from bullish to bearish when bulls failed to surpass the 0.6401 resistance level. Bears emerged at this level, pushing the price below the 30-SMA. Furthermore, the price broke below its bullish trendline, indicating a shift in sentiment. Since then, bears have been in the lead. However, they are facing the 0.6300 barrier that has paused the decline. If the bearish momentum remains strong, the price will break below 0.6300 and retest to 0.6200 support. On the other hand, if the support holds firm, the price might bounce higher to retest the 30-SMA or the 0.6401 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/27/aud-usd-forecast-aud-struggles-after-weak-inflation-report/
2025-02-26 08:38
The USD/CAD forecast is bullish as US yields surge. The Canadian dollar remains under pressure amid weaker WTI and tariff fears. Fed speeches and Nvidia’s earnings are key to watch today. The USD/CAD forecast remains elevated as the price posts a fourth consecutive session in gains. The pair is trading at 1.4330 at the time of writing. The US dollar surges as Treasury yields soar. The 2-year and 10-year yields have risen to 4.13% and 4.33%, respectively. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- The Fed’s Richmond President, Thomas Barkin, projected a decline in the US Core PCE figures, highlighting the Fed’s progress in coping with inflation. However, he maintained a “wait and see” stance for the next cuts due to economic uncertainties. The Canadian dollar remains under pressure as President Trump reaffirmed the tariff imposition on Mexico and Canada. Despite the diplomatic efforts of Canada to get exemptions, Trump’s hard stance has thickened the trade relations concerns. Moreover, Trump’s assertion that the US doesn’t need Canadian crude oil or lumber poses a threat to the historic trade relationship between the two countries. Falling crude oil prices due to demand concerns further weaken the Canadian dollar. The WTI prices have declined to $69.00 as US economic growth remains a concern while global uncertainties prevail. A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could result in lifting the Russian oil ban, which could further boost the supply and weigh down prices. Despite the USD/CAD’s recent rally, the broader sentiment could limit the gains. The US economic data shows growth concerns as consumer sentiment data fell to the lowest level since Aug 2021. Nvidia’s earnings report is also important to watch, as a miss in the number could trigger risk-off sentiment and favor the dollar bulls. Market Catalysts Today: US New House Sales Fed Speeches Nvidia’s earnings USD/CAD Technical Forecast: Cup and handle pattern The USD/CAD remains well-bid above the 30-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. However, the 14-period RSI suggests no bullish conviction, as the value is in the overbought zone. Smaller bullish candles also suggest the pair lacks the strength to continue the rally. The 1.4383 (horizontal level) could cap the gains. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, the pair is forming a cup and handle pattern, which is a strong bullish sign. If the pair finds acceptance above 1.4383, the next hurdle will be 1.4425 ahead of 1.4495. On the flip side, rejection from current levels could challenge the 1.4300 support ahead of 1.4233 (30-SMA) and then 1.4200. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/26/usd-cad-forecast-rallying-amid-soaring-yields-tariff-woes/
2025-02-26 07:43
Gold outlook turns bearish as the metal failed to sustain near all-time highs. Safe-haven demand for gold returns amid tariffs but faces hurdles due to higher US yields. Technically, a short-term correction is possible before gold resumes its upside. The gold outlook fades its bullish momentum held last week. On Tuesday, the precious metal swiftly fell to a 6-day low at $2,888. Though the prices recovered back above the $2,900 mark, the selling pressure remains unabated. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- The gold found safe-haven demand and surged from the lows as market participants responded to the tariff jitters and geopolitical developments. Weaker US data, including a sharp fall in consumer confidence to the lowest level since Aug 2021, raised concerns about economic growth. Moreover, the trade war fears renewed as Trump ordered a new probe to impose tariffs on copper imports. Despite the fundamental reasons favoring gold, the rising US yields cap the gains. The 10-year bond yields rose to 4.33% after the US House of Representatives approved Trump’s budget plan, which could smoothen the tax cut path. Higher yields make gold, a non-yielding asset, less attractive to buyers. Market participants now see speeches from Fed officials that could provide further guidance on the monetary policy. A hawkish stance could further pressure the gold. Additionally, the US Q4 GDP and US Core PCE Index remain the limelight events of the week that could drive the trend in gold prices. Gold Price Technical Outlook: Bears aiming for $2,850 From a technical perspective, the gold’s breakout of pennant below $2,900 suggests a short-term weakness. The price is currently well above the key demand zone above $2,850. However, testing and breaking the zone could accelerate the selling towards $2,800 ahead of $2,750. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- The 4-hour chart shows the price falls below the 30-period SMA, indicating a premature bearish trend. The 14-period RSI is around 40.0, another indicator of bearish gold. At the time of writing, the prices consolidate around $2,910, lacking a directional bias. Any upside breakout could lead to $2,935 ahead of the all-time high at $2,956, while the ultimate target for the buyers remains at the $3,000 psychological mark. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/26/gold-outlook-vulnerable-at-key-level-deeper-correction-in-sight/
2025-02-25 08:02
The GBP/USD forecast turns neutral after falling from a 10-week top. Tariff jitters, US inflation, and BoE’s dovishness, could ignite selling pressure. US Core PCE and US GDP are key events to watch. The GBP/USD forecast remains neutral as the price retreated after hitting a 10-week top at 1.2690 on Monday. The price wobbles around 1.2630 at the time of writing. The pullback came as investors assessed the inflation risk in the US after last week’s higher CPI reading. The recent development has dampened the Fed’s expected two rate cuts in 2025. Market participants eye US GDP and US Core PCE Index data this week. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- On the tariffs front, the markets have been hit by a new wave of risk aversion as US President Trump moves forward with his aggressive trade policies. The pound saw volatility due to unsettled global markets. Across the Atlantic, some key speeches from BoE members are due this week, including Huw Pill, Chief Economist, to speak on Tuesday, followed by Swati Dhingra and Dave Ramsden on Wednesday and Friday, respectively. Traders are cautious as these policymakers could signal a dovish move by the bank. Meanwhile, the pound’s rally could be limited due to the looming UK’s Spring Budget. Chancellor Rachel Reeves may cut government spending to reduce taxes. This move could signal a weaker economy and weigh on the pound. Given the inflationary pressure, the Bank of England is expected to cut twice in 2025. However, the pace could be gradual. On the economic front, the US data does not give a clear picture due to mixed data. Traders eye Fed officials’ speeches and US Consumer Confidence data. GBP/USD Technical Forecast: Wobbling around 30-SMA The GBP/USD price wobbles around the 30-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. The neutral outlook gives no clear signal. However, the odds of moving downwards are high as the top formation under a key level of 1.2700 marks intense selling pressure. The immediate support comes at 1.2586, a 23.6 Fib level ahead of 19th Feb lows at 1.2562. Ultimate support emerges at 50.0 Fib level at 1.2470. The RSI value is at 50.0, which also indicates a neutral stance. A downside breakout has a higher potential as the RSI slopes southward. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- On the flip side, finding acceptance above 1.2650 may gather buying traction and revisit 1.2690 ahead of 1.2730. However, the markets need a stimulus to crack the upside. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/25/gbp-usd-forecast-turns-negative-amid-us-inflation-tariffs/
2025-02-25 06:59
USD/JPY price analysis shows a dismal scenario, leading prices below 149.50. Declining US yields add strength to the selling pressure. Upbeat Japanese data and uncertain markets boost the yen. The USD/JPY price analysis reveals a vulnerable setup, retreating to the 149.50 region on Tuesday as the greenback stays weak while the yen soars on potential rate hike speculations. Sellers are gathering energy to break the 149.0 level. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- The US10Y dipped to 4.375%, which could further boost the yen and weigh on the USD/JPY pair. On the other hand, Japanese yields have also eased on BoJ Governor Ueda’s comments that the bank will intervene if yields spike. While JGB yields are off the highs, markets anticipate BoJ’s further tightening. On the data front, Japan’s Services PPI figures went to 3.1% y/y in January. Hence, rising wages could strengthen the odds of another BoJ hike. Tokyo inflation also soared to a 21-month top, reinforcing the monetary tightening. According to Bloomberg estimates, there is an 83% probability of two rate hikes in 2025. The US dollar stays volatile as the Fed’s expectations shift. Mixed US PMI and consumer sentiment data have raised concerns about slowed growth. Traders anxiously await further guidance from the Core PCE Index and Q4 GDP data. Broader risk sentiment is now playing a role in driving USD/JPY prices. Nvidia’s earnings reports and end-of-month flows could also stimulate the market. Key Economic Events Today Japan Corporate Services Price Index ECB’s Schnabel Speaks US Consumer Confidence, Richmond Manufacturing Index FOMC Member Barkin Speaks USD/JPY Technical Price Analysis: Corrective bounce The USD/JPY has formed a temporary bottom at 148.88 with a corrective bounce above 150.0 that couldn’t be sustained. The current price level of around 149.50 is vulnerable, and the odds of breaking the bottom are high. The 4-hour chart shows that the price has stayed below the 30-period SMA since 14th Feb. Meanwhile, RSI is well above the oversold region, which indicates that the potential for a deeper downside persists. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- On the flip side, a corrective upside could bounce to 38.2 Fib level at 151.12 ahead of 50.0 Fib at 151.82. However, the pair has to find acceptance above the 30-period SMA first. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/25/usd-jpy-price-analysis-soft-us-yields-uncertainty-boost-yen/
