2025-03-18 10:38

The USD/JPY price analysis shows the yen losing its shine. Trump’s tariffs might hurt Japan’s export-reliant economy. US sales increased by 0.2% compared to estimates of a 0.6% rise. The USD/JPY price analysis shows the yen losing its shine amid uncertainty regarding the impacts of Trump’s tariffs on Japan’s economy. At the same time, market participants are gearing up for the Bank of Japan and Fed policy meetings. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- Initially, the yen gained amid trade war fears and tariff uncertainty. Traders rushed to the safe-haven currency as Trump ignited more trade wars. However, the focus has now shifted to Japan’s export-reliant economy. Eventually, Trump’s tariffs will affect most of the US’s trading partners. Therefore, Japan is also at risk of a slowdown in case of a trade war. Such an outcome would force the Bank of Japan to rethink its policy path. Recent policymaker remarks have shown a hawkish outlook and pushed up rate hike expectations. However, Trump is reshaping the outlook for monetary policy in most major economies. Therefore, traders will closely follow the BoJ meeting to see whether the tone has changed. A less hawkish tone will further hurt the yen. On the other hand, the dollar found relief against the yen despite more downbeat US economic data. US sales increased by 0.2% compared to estimates of a 0.6% rise. Nevertheless, traders expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday. USD/JPY key events today Market participants do not expect key reports from Japan or the US. All focus is on the BoJ and Fed meetings, due on Wednesday. USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bulls find their feet in a new uptrend On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is on a strong rally after breaking above the 149.00 resistance level. The price trades far above the 30-SMA with the RSI near the overbought region, indicating a solid bullish bias. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- At the same time, the price has created a bullish channel with a clear support and resistance trendline. Bulls took charge near the 147.02 support level and broke above the 30-SMA. After this, the price pulled back to retest the SMA before climbing to make a higher high. This confirmed a new bullish trend. Currently, bulls are targeting the channel resistance. Moreover, there is a strong hurdle at the 151.01 level. A break above this level will strengthen the bullish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/18/usd-jpy-price-analysis-yen-loses-traction-amid-economic-whirls/

2025-03-18 08:58

The GBP/USD outlook shows additional signs that the US economy is slowing down. US retail sales increased by 0.2%, missing forecasts of 0.6%. Market participants expect the BoE to keep interest rates unchanged. The GBP/USD outlook shows additional signs that the US economy is slowing down after retail sales came in below estimates. Meanwhile, market participants look forward to the FOMC and BoE policy meeting for more clues on future monetary policy moves. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- Data on Monday revealed that US retail sales increased by 0.2%, missing forecasts of 0.6%. The poor figures indicated weak consumer spending, increasing Fed rate cut expectations. This was another report that raised fears of an economic slowdown. Recent US data has mostly come in below estimates. Employment missed forecasts in February, and inflation data last week was well below estimates. As a result, market participants are pricing slightly over two Fed rate cuts this year. However, there is caution due to uncertainty regarding Trump’s tariffs. The subsequent trade wars might increase inflation, forcing the Fed to keep interest rates elevated. Moreover, inflation expectations have risen sharply since Trump took office. Traders expect the Fed to pause on Wednesday. On the other hand, the pound was steady due to the weaker dollar. Moreover, market participants expect the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged this week. GBP/USD key events today Market participants do not expect any high-impact economic releases from the UK or the US. Therefore, the price might consolidate. GBP/USD technical outlook: Bulls meet a solid hurdle at 1.3001 On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has paused its rally near the 1.3001 resistance level. However, the bullish bias remains intact since the price sits above the 30-SMA with the RSI above 50. However, price action has shown some weakness since bulls broke above the 1.2851 resistance level. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- The slope of the uptrend shallowed, and the price started trading near the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI made a bearish divergence, indicating weaker momentum. Bears will resurface at the 1.3001 resistance to push the price below the SMA if this divergence plays out. Such an outcome could mean a deep pullback or a reversal. Therefore, the price would likely retest the 1.2851 support. On the other hand, if bulls regain momentum, the price will break above the 1.3001 resistance to make a new high in the uptrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/18/gbp-usd-outlook-dollar-slips-further-after-us-retail-sales/

2025-03-17 09:27

The USD/CAD outlook shows renewed strength in the Canadian dollar. Former central banker Mark Carney took office as Canada’s new prime minister. Data on Friday revealed a sharp decline in US consumer confidence. The USD/CAD outlook shows strength in the loonie after a former Bank of Canada policymaker took office as Canada’s new prime minister. At the same time, downbeat data and recession worries weighed on the US dollar, allowing the Canadian dollar to recover. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- On Friday, Mark Carney took office as Canada’s new prime minister. Experts believe the former central banker might have the right skills to steer Canada’s economy amid negative pressure from Trump’s tariffs and global trade wars. As a result, there was optimism, and demand for the loonie increased. However, the outlook for the economy remains clouded with uncertainty. Trump gave Canada another month before implementing a 25% tariff on the country’s imports. If this happens, policymakers will have a difficult time trying to support economic growth. On the other hand, several economic reports last week revealed softer-than-expected inflation in the US. As a result, Fed rate cut expectations increased. At the same time, traders were worried about an economic slowdown sparked by Trump’s tariffs. The ongoing trade wars have left US businesses vulnerable. Furthermore, data on Friday revealed a sharp decline in US consumer confidence. This confirmed fears of an economic slowdown. At the same time, inflation expectations soared. Trump’s tariffs will increase costs and boost inflation. Therefore, the Fed will have to balance between growth and inflation. USD/CAD key events today US core retail sales m/m US retail sales m/m USD/CAD technical outlook: Bears set sights on range support On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has broken below the 30-SMA, and the RSI is below 50, indicating a strong bearish bias. However, on a larger scale, the price is trading in a range between the 1.4301 support and the 1.4501 resistance level. Therefore, there is no clear direction until it either breaks above the resistance or below the support. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- At the moment, bears are targeting the range support. A break below this level will signal the likely start of a downtrend. Moreover, it will clear the path for the price to reach the 1.4150 support level. On the other hand, if the support holds firm, the price will remain in consolidation, with bulls targeting the range resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/17/usd-cad-outlook-cad-soars-as-ex-boc-takes-office/

2025-03-17 08:04

The EUR/USD forecast shows a strong euro amid optimism over Germany’s fiscal plans. German parties agreed to change the government’s borrowing limits. Data on Friday revealed a sharp drop in US consumer confidence. The EUR/USD forecast shows optimism over Germany’s fiscal plans, likely boosting the Eurozone economy. As a result, the euro has held near its recent five-month peak. On the other hand, the dollar remains subdued amid fears of a US recession due to Trump’s trade policies. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- On Friday, reports revealed that German parties had agreed to change the government’s borrowing limits. Therefore, the 500 billion euro fund proposal might come to life, boosting defense and infrastructure. This, in turn, will support the Eurozone economy and strengthen the euro. Meanwhile, the dollar remained weak due to fears of the US recession and downbeat economic data. Trump’s aggressive trade policy changes have raised fears of a sharp slowdown in the US economy. Trump’s tariffs have ignited trade wars that will likely reduce trade in the global economy. Moreover, experts believe these duties will increase inflation, forcing central banks to keep interest rates elevated. Therefore, policymakers will likely remain cautious despite soft inflation numbers. Notably, data on Friday revealed a sharp drop in consumer confidence. The lack of confidence in the economy proves investors are worried about the impact of Trump’s tariffs. At the same time, inflation expectations jumped. EUR/USD key events today US core retail sales m/m US retail sales m/m EUR/USD technical forecast: Bulls battle to keep control at the 30-SMA On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has recovered to retest the 1.0901 resistance level. As a result, it has broken back above the 30-SMA, showing bulls are struggling to keep control. At the same time, the RSI trades above 50, suggesting strong bullish momentum. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- Previously, the RSI had made a bearish divergence that signaled a likely reversal. This allowed bears to return and push the price below the 30-SMA. However, they have failed to make a significant swing below the SMA. If bulls regain momentum, the price will break above 1.0901 to seek new highs. This would allow EUR/USD to go beyond the 1.1001 key psychological level. On the other hand, if bears are ready to take charge, the price will stay below 1.0901. Moreover, it might drop to retest the 1.0701 key level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/17/eur-usd-forecast-germanys-spending-plans-fuel-optimism/

2025-03-15 09:31

The USD/JPY weekly forecast indicates rising economic uncertainty in Japan. Trump imposed a tariff on steel and aluminum imports. Tariff fears overshadowed a downbeat US inflation report. The USD/JPY weekly forecast turns positive as fears of the impact of Trump’s tariffs on Japan’s economy rise. Ups and downs of USD/JPY The USD/JPY price had a slightly bullish week as the dollar recovered with Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the yen gave up some gains as market participants worried about the impact of Trump’s tariffs on Japan. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- Trump imposed a tariff on steel and aluminum imports, igniting trade wars with Canada and the Eurozone. This escalated fears of a global economic slowdown. As a result, traders sought safety in US Treasuries. Meanwhile, the tariff fears overshadowed a downbeat US inflation report. On the other hand, the yen eased as market participants focused on the vulnerable export-reliant Japanese economy. Trump’s tariffs might hurt the economy. Next week’s key events for USD/JPY Next week, market participants will focus on monetary policy meetings by the Bank of Japan and the Fed. Moreover, the US will release its retail sales report, showing the state of consumer spending. Economists believe both the Bank of Japan and the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged. However, BoJ policymakers might maintain a hawkish tone, signaling future hikes. Meanwhile, the Fed might remain cautious due to uncertainty regarding Trump’s tariffs. USD/JPY weekly technical forecast: Eying 149.00 key level On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is climbing after meeting the 0.618 Fib retracement. However, the price is still below the 22-SMA. At the same time, the RSI trades below 50, supporting strong bearish momentum. Since the price broke below the 22-SMA, it has maintained its position below this line, indicating a strong downtrend. Furthermore, the price has consistently made lower highs and lows. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- The downtrend recently made a milestone move by breaking below the 149.00 support level. After the break, the price has risen to retest this level as resistance. If it holds firm, bears might resume the downtrend. However, the price would have to break below the 0.618 Fib retracement. This would allow USD/JPY to target the 142.00 support level. On the other hand, if bears fail to break below the 0.618 Fib, bulls might push the price back above 149.00. A break above the SMA would signal a likely reversal. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/15/usd-jpy-weekly-forecast-japans-economy-fears-tariff-impact/

2025-03-14 19:40

The GBP/USD weekly forecast shows escalating fears of a US recession. Downbeat US inflation figures increased expectations for Fed rate cuts. Data on Friday revealed an unexpected contraction in the UK economy. The GBP/USD weekly forecast is positive despite the paused rally, as escalating US recession fears weigh on the greenback. Ups and downs of GBP/USD The GBP/USD price had a slightly bullish week as the dollar fell due to fears of the US recession. Meanwhile, a downbeat UK GDP report kept a lid on gains. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- This week, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. This tariff affected the Eurozone and Canada, who responded immediately. The trade wars dimmed the outlook for the global economy and increased US recession fears. Meanwhile, downbeat US inflation figures increased expectations for Fed rate cuts. On the other hand, the pound fell after data on Friday revealed an unexpected contraction in the UK economy. This put pressure on the BoE to lower borrowing costs. Next week’s key events for GBP/USD Next week, the US will release its retail sales report. Meanwhile, the UK will release employment data. Moreover, market participants will focus on the Fed and Bank of England policy meetings. Market participants expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. However, traders will focus on the messaging during the meeting for clues on future moves. Similarly, investors expect the Bank of England to hold rates on Thursday. The tone at the meeting will also give clues about future policy moves. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Uptrend meets solid resistance zone On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has reached a solid resistance zone comprising the 1.3000 key psychological level and the 0.618 Fib retracement. The bullish bias is strong, with the price far above the 22-SMA and the RSI near the overbought region. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- Moreover, the price has maintained a bullish trend, making higher highs and lows and keeping above the 22-SMA. Therefore, bulls might be strong enough to break above the current resistance zone. However, the price needs a pause or pullback to the SMA after a sharp swing. If this happens, the price will fall to the 22-SMA before bouncing to retest the resistance zone. A break above this zone will clear the path for GBP/USD to retest the 1.3401 resistance. However, if the zone holds firm, bears might overpower bulls to push the price below the 22-SMA. This would allow the price to revisit the 1.2604 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/14/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-recession-concerns-weigh-on-dollar/