2025-02-25 06:59
USD/JPY price analysis shows a dismal scenario, leading prices below 149.50. Declining US yields add strength to the selling pressure. Upbeat Japanese data and uncertain markets boost the yen. The USD/JPY price analysis reveals a vulnerable setup, retreating to the 149.50 region on Tuesday as the greenback stays weak while the yen soars on potential rate hike speculations. Sellers are gathering energy to break the 149.0 level. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- The US10Y dipped to 4.375%, which could further boost the yen and weigh on the USD/JPY pair. On the other hand, Japanese yields have also eased on BoJ Governor Ueda’s comments that the bank will intervene if yields spike. While JGB yields are off the highs, markets anticipate BoJ’s further tightening. On the data front, Japan’s Services PPI figures went to 3.1% y/y in January. Hence, rising wages could strengthen the odds of another BoJ hike. Tokyo inflation also soared to a 21-month top, reinforcing the monetary tightening. According to Bloomberg estimates, there is an 83% probability of two rate hikes in 2025. The US dollar stays volatile as the Fed’s expectations shift. Mixed US PMI and consumer sentiment data have raised concerns about slowed growth. Traders anxiously await further guidance from the Core PCE Index and Q4 GDP data. Broader risk sentiment is now playing a role in driving USD/JPY prices. Nvidia’s earnings reports and end-of-month flows could also stimulate the market. Key Economic Events Today Japan Corporate Services Price Index ECB’s Schnabel Speaks US Consumer Confidence, Richmond Manufacturing Index FOMC Member Barkin Speaks USD/JPY Technical Price Analysis: Corrective bounce The USD/JPY has formed a temporary bottom at 148.88 with a corrective bounce above 150.0 that couldn’t be sustained. The current price level of around 149.50 is vulnerable, and the odds of breaking the bottom are high. The 4-hour chart shows that the price has stayed below the 30-period SMA since 14th Feb. Meanwhile, RSI is well above the oversold region, which indicates that the potential for a deeper downside persists. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- On the flip side, a corrective upside could bounce to 38.2 Fib level at 151.12 ahead of 50.0 Fib at 151.82. However, the pair has to find acceptance above the 30-period SMA first. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/25/usd-jpy-price-analysis-soft-us-yields-uncertainty-boost-yen/
2025-02-24 08:10
The gold outlook remains positive with a range-bound behavior. Trade tariffs and growth concerns boost the metal. The Fed’s hawkishness could limit the gains. The gold outlook does not show a strong conviction to sustain the rally as markets remain unclear. Monday’s Asian session gave a little strength to the precious metal as US trade tariff jitters and global growth remain a key concern. Additional trade restrictions could further dampen the risk sentiment, eventually boosting the yellow metal. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- Besides trade tariffs, the weaker US dollar further bolsters gold’s demand. The greenback hit its lowest level since December 10 due to recent downbeat data. The dismal US PMI data signalled a slowdown in business activity. Moreover, Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell to 15-month lows, reflecting a growth concern. Despite the factors supporting gold prices, the upside could be limited due to the Fed’s restrictive stance for an extended period. The recent FOMC meeting minutes reflected a hawkish tone from the policymakers, who said they were not hurrying to cut rates. Hence, yields are expected to stay elevated, and gold’s rally will be limited. Market participants await Core PCE Index data, a preferred inflation gauge for the Fed. A higher number could further strengthen the case of a hawkish Fed. Moreover, US GDP for the fourth quarter will also be important to watch. Upbeat data may trigger a sell-off in the gold. Key Events to Watch Today There is no major event for today. Hence, price will likely be dominated by the risk sentiment and technical levels. Gold Technical Outlook: Ranging before a breakout The gold price remains range-bound near its all-time highs. Though the price retreated briefly, the technical outlook remains unchanged. The 30-period SMA on the 4-hour chart shows a strong uptrend while the RSI level hits 50.0, reverses, and is well below the overbought area, indicating a potential rally to $3,000. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- On the flip side, the demand zone appears in the $2,865-85 region. Before testing the zone, there are some tough support levels at $2,915 and $2,900. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/24/gold-outlook-stands-firm-amid-tariff-growth-concerns/
2025-02-24 07:20
The EUR/USD forecast remains elevated after the German elections Germany’s debt policy is now at the center stage for traders. US trade tariffs remain a threat to the risk mode. The EUR/USD forecast remains slightly positive as the new week begins with a fresh buying impulse stemming from German elections. The CDU/CSU alliance led the exit polls with 28.5% of the vote. However, the shock came from AfD, which won the elections with an unprecedented 20.8% vote. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- Markets reacted immediately to the results, and the euro initially spiked against the US dollar to 1.0528 on speculation of what the new government would likely be. However, as no single party could get a majority vote, the uncertainty soon crept in. For currency traders, one word that matters is debt brake. Merz’s conservatives stood by strict fiscal discipline, while the Greens wanted easing to stimulate the economy. The spending could ignite the growth, but at the cost of a higher debt. The CDU/CSU will likely join with AfD to form a government. Hence, a strict monetary policy could be expected, eventually boosting the Euro. However, what is more important is how soon the coalition will be formed and the new government will take charge. Delays may add uncertainty to the view. Regarding geopolitics, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukraine’s Zelenskiy agreed to initiate peace talks. However, Trump said that Ukraine does not have any cards to play. The US dollar stayed weak after last week’s PMI readings showed a stall in business activities. The consumer sentiment and housing markets also showed signs of weakness. The looming tariffs and the Fed’s spending cuts weigh on economic activity. However, the tariff threats and the Fed’s cautious stance could sour the risk sentiment and strengthen the US dollar. Key Events to Watch German ifo Business Climate EUR/USD Technical Forecast: Bulls Aiming for 1.0550 The EUR/USD remains well-bid above the 30-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. It shows a strong uptrend that is likely to continue. The pair hit a fresh multi-week high at 1.0528 before briefly retreating. The engulfing candle indicates that selling is limited while bulls could form another higher high. The RSI is at around 60.0 level, which is still far from overbought territory. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- As long as the price stays above 1.0500, the bulls may attack the 1.0550 level ahead of 1.0600. On the flip side, the price retreating below 1.0500 could test 1.0475 ahead of 1.0450. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/24/eur-usd-forecast-bullish-amid-german-elections-weaker-dollar/
2025-02-22 19:38
The USD/CAD weekly forecast shows a slight rebound in the dollar. Trump is ready to implement more tariffs, including on automobiles. Canadian data revealed solid underlying inflation and upbeat sales. The USD/CAD weekly forecast indicates a modest rebound of the dollar following Trump’s proposal for automobile tariffs. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The USD/CAD pair had a bullish week but remained near last week’s lows as the dollar remained fragile. At the same time, data from Canada eased pressure on the Bank of Canada to lower borrowing costs. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- News that Trump will soon meet China’s president raised hopes for a trade deal between the two countries, boosting risk sentiment. However, Trump is ready to implement more tariffs, including those on automobiles, to support the dollar. Meanwhile, in Canada, data revealed solid underlying inflation and upbeat sales. As a result, BoC rate cut bets fell. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Traders will watch key reports from the US, including gross domestic product and core durable goods. Meanwhile, Canada will release its GDP report. The US GDP report will show the state of the economy and guide the Fed on future policy moves. A bigger-than-expected expansion will show robust growth, supporting the Fed’s current stance of caution. The dollar would rally in this case, pushing USD/CAD higher. On the other hand, if expansion is weak, the Fed might feel more pressure to lower borrowing costs. The same applies to Canada’s GDP, which will guide the outlook for Bank of Canada rate cuts. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Bears eye the 1.3802 support On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has reversed and found its footing below the 22-SMA. At the same time, the RSI trades below 50, indicating strong bearish momentum. The previous bullish trend reversed after the RSI made a bearish divergence, indicating weak momentum. At the same time, the price made a bearish engulfing candle, leading to a break below the 22-SMA and the 1.4300 support level. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- However, the decline has paused, and the price might retest the 22-SMA and the 1.4300 level as resistance. If it holds firm and the price continues lower, it will confirm a new bearish trend. In this case, bears will target the 1.3802 support level. However, if bulls manage to push the price back above the SMA, it might enter a period of consolidation or resume the bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/22/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-dollar-rebounds-on-auto-tariff-plan/
2025-02-22 19:36
The AUD/USD weekly forecast shows continued strength in Australia’s labor market. The Reserve Bank of Australia implemented its first rate cut this week. Data revealed a sharp decline in business activity in the US service sector. This AUD/USD weekly forecast highlights the significant impact of Australia’s strong labor market on the appreciation of the Australian dollar. Ups and downs of AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair had a bullish week despite an RBA rate cut on Tuesday. The strength came from an upbeat employment report from Australia and a weak dollar. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- The Reserve Bank of Australia implemented its first rate cut this week but remained cautious due to labor market strength. Data on Thursday revealed an unexpected jump in job growth in Australia. Meanwhile, the US dollar was fragile amid hopes for a trade deal between the US and China. At the same time, data on Friday revealed a sharp decline in business activity in the US service sector. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week, market participants will focus on US GDP and core durable goods data. The US economy has shown resilience in 2025, with only a few weak spots, such as retail sales. As a result, the outlook for the Fed remains mostly hawkish, with market participants expecting only two cuts this year. Upbeat GDP data might further lower rate-cut expectations, boosting the dollar. On the other hand, if economic growth disappoints, rate cut expectations will increase, hurting the greenback AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls face the 0.382 Fib retracement level On the technical side, the AUD/USD price trades above the 22-SMA with the RSI above 50, supporting a bullish bias. The trend recently reversed when bears paused at the 0.6100 support level. Bears gradually lost momentum as the price approached this level, allowing bulls to emerge and break above the 22-SMA. At the same time, the RSI broke above 50, indicating stronger bullish momentum. However, bulls face a strong resistance zone comprising the 0.382 Fib retracement and the 0.6401 key level. If the bulls are strong, they will break above this zone to make new highs. However, the price might pull back to retest the SMA before climbing higher. On the other hand, if the zone holds firm, bears might overpower bulls to break below the SMA and retest the 0.6100 support. A break below this level would confirm a continuation of the previous downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/22/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-solid-jobs-data-boosts-aussie/
2025-02-21 09:13
The GBP/USD price analysis indicates a recovery in UK consumer spending. UK retail sales jumped by 1.7% in January. The greenback fell on Friday after reports that Trump will soon host China’s president. The GBP/USD price analysis indicates a recovery in the UK economy after a better-than-expected retail sales report. The upbeat report has lowered expectations for BoE rate cuts, boosting the pound. Meanwhile, the dollar was fragile as risk appetite improved on the likelihood of a trade deal between the US and China. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- Data on Friday revealed that UK retail sales jumped by 1.7% in January, well above estimates of 0.4%. The increase indicates solid consumer spending and a rebound in the economy. Recent data has shown an unexpected recovery in the UK economy that has lowered expectations for Bank of England rate cuts this year. As a result, the pound has recovered against the dollar. Market participants now expect business activity data for more clues on BoE rate cuts. More upbeat data will push the sterling higher as rate-cut bets drop. On the other hand, a downbeat report would cause a pullback in the currency. Further support for the pound came from a weak dollar. The greenback fell on Friday after reports that Trump will soon host China’s president. This suggests a likely trade deal between the two countries, reducing the chances of a trade war. GBP/USD key events today UK flash manufacturing PMI UK flash services PMI US flash manufacturing PMI US flash services PMI GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bulls approach the 1.618 Fib barrier On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has risen to make a higher high in the uptrend. This bullish move comes after the price found support at the 30-SMA. Meanwhile, the RSI trades near the overbought region, indicating solid bullish momentum. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, the rally is nearing the 1.618 Fib extension level, which might act as a strong resistance. At the same time, the 1.2701 level can create a strong barrier. If bulls show any weakness, GBP/USD might fail to break above this resistance zone. On the other hand, if the price maintains its current bias, it will break above this zone to make new highs and continue the bullish trend. The bias will only change when the price breaks below the SMA and the RSI dips below 50. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/21/gbp-usd-analysis-uk-retail-growth-increases-optimism/
