2025-02-17 11:31

The AUD/USD outlook indicates solid bullish sentiment. The dollar collapsed on Friday after data revealed that US retail sales dropped by 0.9%. Market participants expect the RBA to start its easing cycle on Tuesday. The AUD/USD outlook indicates solid bullish sentiment as the dollar remains fragile after Friday’s dismal US retail sales report. At the same time, the dollar weakened due to delays in the implementation of Trump’s reciprocal tariff. Meanwhile, there is some downward pressure on the Australian dollar as traders await a likely RBA rate cut on Tuesday. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- The dollar collapsed on Friday after data revealed that US retail sales dropped by 0.9%. Meanwhile, economists had expected sales to decline by 0.2%. The massive drop is a sign that consumer spending is weak. Therefore, it puts pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs. The dollar was also under pressure last week after Trump delayed implementing his reciprocal tariff to conduct thorough investigations. The delay renewed hopes that most countries would negotiate better trade deals, reducing the risk of trade wars. This deflated the dollar and boosted risk appetite, reviving the risk-sensitive Australian dollar. However, market participants expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to start its easing cycle on Tuesday. A rate cut and a dovish tone will likely weaken the Aussie. AUD/USD key events today Neither Australia nor the US will release any high-impact reports today. Therefore, market participants will look forward to the RBA policy meeting. AUD/USD technical outlook: Uptrend nears the 0.6400 level On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has soared to new highs after breaking above the 0.6300 resistance level. The price trades far above the 30-SMA, showing bulls are in the lead. At the same time, the RSI trades near the overbought region, indicating solid bullish momentum. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Bulls took over when the price found support at the 0.6100 key level. However, they struggled to break above the 0.6300 resistance, leading to a brief consolidation. The eventual breakout shows that bulls are ready to keep making higher highs. However, the rally is approaching the 0.6400 key psychological level, where it might pause. Such an outcome would allow the price to retest the 30-SMA support. If it holds firm, the uptrend will likely continue beyond the 0.6300 level. On the other hand, if the price breaks below the SMA, it will signal a bearish sentiment shift. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/17/aud-usd-outlook-poor-us-sales-data-weaken-dollar/

2025-02-17 08:51

The USD/JPY forecast shows rising bets for another Bank of Japan rate hike. Japan’s GDP increased by 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Recent BoJ policymaker remarks have shown a more hawkish tone. The USD/JPY forecast shows rising bets for another Bank of Japan rate hike in July after Japan released an upbeat GDP report. As a result, Japanese bond yields have rallied to new highs, boosting the yen. Data on Monday revealed that Japan’s GDP increased by 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024. This figure was much higher than the forecast of 1.0%, showing stronger-than-expected economic expansion. Moreover, this report followed several others showing stronger consumption, wage growth, and inflation in the country. Consequently, the stage is set for more Bank of Japan rate hikes. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- Japan’s central bank hiked rates in January and left the door open for more hikes. Market participants were pricing at least one more hike in the fourth quarter. However, recent policymaker remarks have shown a more hawkish tone and a willingness to hike rates further. Additionally, data has pushed analysts to forecast another rate hike as early as April. Meanwhile, markets are pricing an 80% chance of a hike in July. Meanwhile, the dollar eased at the start of a quiet week, with few major reports from the US. Market participants will focus on Trump’s speech on Tuesday, which might give more clues on tariffs. The delay in reciprocal tariffs weighed on the greenback last week. USD/JPY key events today Market participants are not expecting key reports from Japan or the US. USD/JPY technical forecast: Bears attacking 151.02 support On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has collapsed after failing to break above its resistance trendline. It currently trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI near the oversold region, suggesting a bearish bias. However, bears are approaching a solid hurdle at the 151.02 support level that might pause the decline. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- USD/JPY has maintained a downtrend, making lower highs and lows with a clear resistance trendline. However, the trend has been shallow, with the price chopping through the 30-SMA. If this trend continues, the price will soon break below the 151.02 support level to make a lower low. On the other hand, the price might pause at 151.02 and reverse to retest the resistance trendline. A break above the trendline would confirm a bullish reversal. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/17/usd-jpy-forecast-japans-upbeat-gdp-fuels-boj-hike-bets/

2025-02-16 08:52

The AUD/USD weekly forecast shows strong bullish sentiment. Powell emphasized the need for patience regarding rate cuts. US data on Friday revealed dismal retail sales. The AUD/USD weekly forecast is positive due to reduced trade tensions despite expected RBA rate cuts. Ups and downs of AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair had a bullish week as the dollar fell due to a delay on Trump’s reciprocal tariff. However, there were days when the US currency rose during the week. On Tuesday, Powell emphasized the need for patience regarding rate cuts. Additionally, data on Wednesday revealed hotter-than-expected consumer inflation in January, which led to a decline in rate-cut bets. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- However, the Aussie rose against the dollar when it became clear that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs would not come immediately. Moreover, data on Friday revealed dismal retail sales, indicating weak consumer spending. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week, traders will focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting. Additionally, Australia will release its monthly employment report. Meanwhile, the US will release the FOM policy meeting minutes. Most economists, as cited by Reuters, believe the RBA will cut interest rates by 25-bps on Tuesday. This would be the first rate cut, indicating policymakers are confident inflation is on a path to the target. Moreover, a dovish tone during the meeting would hurt the Australian dollar. Meanwhile, the FOMC meeting minutes will show what went into the last decision to keep rates unchanged. Moreover, it might contain clues about future moves. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bullish momentum stronger above 0.63 On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has broken above the 0.6300 resistance level to make a higher high. Moreover, the price trades above the 22-SMA with the RSI above 50, supporting a bullish bias. The new high confirms a bullish reversal, meaning the price might keep climbing. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Initially, the price was on a strong downtrend that paused below the 0.6300 support level. Here, bears lost the enthusiasm to make significant swings. At the same time, while the price made lower lows, the RSI made higher ones, indicating fading momentum. This allowed bulls to resurface and push the price above the 22-SMA. Additionally, the price broke above the 0.6300 resistance, confirming the bullish shift in sentiment. Therefore, AUD/USD might reach the next resistance at 0.6500. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/16/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-dovish-rba-unable-to-shake-bulls/

2025-02-15 10:52

The USD/CAD weekly forecast indicates dollar weakness amid easing tariff tensions. Data on Wednesday revealed that US consumer inflation rose by 0.5% in January. Reports that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs would not come immediately boosted risk appetite. The USD/CAD weekly forecast indicates improving risk appetite amid easing tariff tensions that keep pressure on the dollar. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The USD/CAD pair had a bearish week as the dollar dropped from its peaks due to easing tariff fears. At the start of the week, traders focused on Powell’s speech. The Fed Chair maintained his hawkish tone, saying there was no rush to lower borrowing costs. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- Meanwhile, data on Wednesday revealed that US consumer inflation rose by 0.5% in January, beating forecasts of 0.3%. The upbeat report led to declining Fed rate cut expectations, briefly boosting the dollar. However, reports that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs would not immediately boost risk appetite, hurt the US dollar. Furthermore, data on Friday revealed that US retail sales dropped more than expected. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week, investors will monitor inflation and retail sales data from Canada. Meanwhile, the US will release the FOMC policy meeting minutes. Canada’s inflation reading will shape the outlook for Bank of Canada rate cuts. A bigger-than-expected number will lower bets for a rate cut, boosting the Canadian dollar. On the other hand, if inflation is softer than forecast, rate-cut bets will rise, hurting the loonie. Meanwhile, the FOMC meeting minutes will show where policymakers stand on future rate cuts. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Bears find their footing below the 22-SMA On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has broken below the 1.4300 support level, pushing lower below the 22-SMA. The move comes after the price made a solid bearish engulfing candle, signaling a likely reversal. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Previously, USD/CAD traded in a strong uptrend, making higher highs and lows and respecting the 22-SMA as support. However, bears started gaining on bulls after the price broke above the 1.4300 resistance level. The price started making bigger red candles and kept close to the 22-SMA. Still, bulls made one last attempt to stay in control by making a higher high. However, the RSI made a lower high, showing weaker bullish momentum. Therefore, bears overpowered bulls and reversed the trend, pushing the price below the 22-SMA. Bears are now eyeing the 1.4004 support level. A break below this level will strengthen the new bearish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/15/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-easing-tariff-tensions-weaken-dollar/

2025-02-14 09:48

The GBP/USD price analysis shows a brighter outlook for the UK economy. The UK economy expanded by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of last year. Market participants have lowered expectations for Fed rate cuts. The GBP/USD price analysis shows a brighter outlook for the UK economy after GDP data revealed an unexpected expansion in Q4 last year. Meanwhile, the dollar remained fragile as the impact of Trump’s tariff threats faded. Data on Thursday revealed that the UK economy expanded by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of last year. This figure came above estimates of a 0.1% contraction. The British economy has slowed down significantly, putting pressure on the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs. The upbeat report eased some of that pressure, boosting the pound. Market participants are now pricing 54-bps of rate cuts this year by the Bank of England. If the economy shows more bright spots, rate-cut bets will drop. On the other hand, market participants have lowered expectations for Fed rate cuts due to upbeat inflation data. Both consumer and wholesale inflation figures came in above estimates, suggesting higher rates for longer in the US. Initially, the more hawkish outlook boosted the dollar. However, the focus shifted to Trump tariffs, leading to a drop in the US currency. Reports revealed that there will be delays in implementing Trump’s reciprocal tariff. As a result, market participants believe this will give countries time to negotiate better trading deals. GBP/USD key events today US core retail Sales m/m US retail sales m/m GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bulls reach a new high above 1.2550 On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken above the 1.2550 resistance level to make a new high in the bullish trend. Moreover, the price trades far above the 30-SMA, and the RSI is nearing the overbought level, indicating solid bullish momentum. If the rally continues, the price will reach the 1.2651 level. However, the price has maintained a shallow uptrend on a larger scale. As a result, when the price forms a new high, it is near the previous high. This means the price returns to the bullish support trendline soon after making a new high. If this is the case, the price will soon reverse to break below the 30-SMA and retest the support trendline. Nevertheless, it will keep making higher highs if it stays above the trendline. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/14/gbp-usd-price-analysis-uk-gdp-tariff-delays-boost-pound/

2025-02-14 08:06

The AUD/USD outlook shows a strong Aussie despite growing RBA rate cut bets. Trump’s reciprocal tariff will not come immediately. Market participants are looking forward to the US retail sales report. The AUD/USD outlook shows a strong Aussie despite increasing expectations for a Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut rates next Tuesday. The Australian dollar was steady as the dollar fell due to easing tariff concerns. A Reuters poll found that 90% of economists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to implement its first rate cut next week. The central bank will be among the last to start its easing cycle. However, interest rates in Australia did not rise as much as in other major economies. Therefore, the central bank has a short way to go. Recent data has created the right conditions for a rate cut, with inflation reaching 2.4%. If this trend continues, policymakers might shift to a more dovish tone, weakening the Aussie. However, the survey had little impact on Australia’s currency as market participants focused on Trump’s tariffs. The US President has promised a reciprocal tariff on all countries with duties on US goods. However, this tariff will not come immediately as the administration is still formulating implementation plans. This brief respite led to a decline in the dollar, allowing its peers like the Aussie to climb. Market participants are now looking forward to the US retail sales report to see the state of consumer spending. This report will give clues on future policy moves. AUD/USD key events today US core retail sales m/m US retail sales m/m AUD/USD technical outlook: Bulls eying 0.6350 On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has broken above the 0.6300 key resistance level to make a higher high. The price trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI above 50, suggesting a strong bullish bias. After a solid surge, the price paused below the 0.6300 resistance. Here, the price consolidated, chopping through the 30-SMA as bulls attempted to break above the resistance. The breakout has solidified the bullish bias by clearing the path to the 0.6350 level. The bullish trend will continue if the price breaks above this level and makes higher highs and lows. Meanwhile, if the level holds firm, the price might drop to retest the 0.6300 level as support. A break below the 30-SMA would confirm a bearish shift in sentiment. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/14/aud-usd-outlook-market-optimism-oversights-rba-cut-odds/