2025-02-21 09:00
The USD/CAD outlook shows easing fears of a trade war between the US and China. Trump said he would soon meet China’s president. Market participants are expecting retail sales data from Canada. The USD/CAD outlook shows easing fears of a trade war between the US and China which has boosted risk sentiment, weighing on the dollar. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar held steady as market participants looked forward to Canada’s retail sales report. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- The dollar fell on Friday after Trump said he would soon meet China’s president. This increased the likelihood that the two countries would reach an agreement to end tariffs and avoid a trade war. Trump imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, which led to an immediate response. China also imposed duties on some US goods, raising fears of a trade war between the two largest economies. As a result, risk sentiment soured, and the dollar soared on safe-haven demand. However, it has become clearer that Trump is more willing to negotiate better trade deals. This means that the tariffs are mostly just threats to push countries to comply with his conditions. As a result, currencies like the Canadian dollar have rebounded. The loonie has also recovered due to upbeat inflation figures from Canada earlier in the week, which eased pressure on the BoC to cut rates. Market participants are now expecting retail sales data for more clues on the outlook for rate cuts. USD/CAD key events today Canada core retail sales m/m Canada retail sales m/m US flash manufacturing PMI US flash services PMI USD/CAD technical outlook: Bullish takeover fails, bears retest 1.4150 On the technical side, the USD/CAD price trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI under 50, indicating a bearish bias. However, bulls recently showed strength when the price broke above the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI broke above 50, suggesting strong bullish momentum. This is a sign that bulls have started challenging the downtrend. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Since bears took control, the price has stayed below the 30-SMA and the RSI below 50. At the same time, the price has made lower highs and lows. Therefore, the downtrend will continue if the price breaks below the 1.4150 support level and makes a lower low. However, if the support holds firm, bulls might resurface to challenge the downtrend by breaking above the SMA. Still, to confirm a reversal, the price must start making higher highs and lows, meaning a break above the 1.4300 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/21/usd-cad-outlook-dollar-slips-as-trade-war-fears-recede/
2025-02-20 08:20
The USD/JPY outlook suggests a scramble for safety in the yen. The US president announced a likely 25% tariff on automobiles. The FOMC meeting minutes revealed inflation worries due to Trump’s trade policies. The USD/JPY outlook suggests a scramble for safety in the yen as market participants worry about Trump’s tariffs. At the same time, stalled talks between Russia and Ukraine have lowered the likelihood of a near-term end to the war. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- The yen soared to new highs on Thursday as traders scrambled for safe assets amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty. The global economy is under threat as Trump marches on with new tariffs. On Tuesday, the US president announced a likely 25% tariff on automobiles that will affect most major economies, especially the Eurozone. These new tariffs follow duties on steel, aluminum, and Chinese goods. At the same time, markets expect a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada in March. The tariffs might ignite a global trade war that would negatively impact the global economy. Consequently, risk appetite will continue dropping, supporting safer currencies like the yen and the US dollar. Elsewhere, the FOMC meeting minutes revealed that policymakers were worried Trump’s tariffs would lead to a spike in inflation. Therefore, there is a high chance the Fed will keep interest rates elevated. At the same time, tensions between Russia and Ukraine have increased since Trump’s recent involvement. Ukraine is now accusing Russia and the US of secret deals that have caused a pause in planned talks. Continued geopolitical tensions will increase demand for the traditionally safe yen. USD/JPY key events today US unemployment claims USD/JPY technical outlook: Price in freefall towards 149.50 On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has collapsed further and broken below the 151.02 support level. This move has pushed the price far below the 30-SMA, indicating a strong bearish lead. At the same time, the RSI has dipped into the oversold region, indicating solid bearish momentum. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Bears took charge when the price met its resistance trendline. The reversal was sharp, pushing the price below the 30-SMA. Moreover, bears confirmed a continuation of the downtrend when the price broke below 151.01 to make a lower low. Given the strong bearish bias, USD/JPY might soon reach the 149.50 level. However, since the RSI is in the oversold region, the price might soon pause before continuing lower. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/20/usd-jpy-outlook-investors-flock-to-yen-amid-tariff-geopolitics/
2025-02-20 07:29
The AUD/USD forecast shows continued strength in Australia’s labor market. Australia’s economy added 44,300 jobs, beating estimates of 20,000. The dollar strengthened against most of its peers due to safe-haven demand. The AUD/USD forecast indicates a sustained robustness in Australia’s labor market, positively impacting the Australian dollar. Meanwhile, risk sentiment remained weak as market participants worried about looming Trump tariffs and increasing tensions between Ukraine and Russia. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- Data on Thursday revealed unexpectedly solid job growth in Australia, leading to a decline in RBA rate cut expectations. Australia’s economy added 44,300 jobs, beating estimates of 20,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased from 4.0% to 4.1%, meeting expectations. The Reserve Bank of Australia implemented its first rate cut this week. However, policymakers emphasized caution due to the strong labor market. If this strength continues, rate cut expectations will fall, and the Aussie will climb. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened against most of its peers as market participants sought safety amid tariff fears. This week, Trump proposed a new automobile tariff that might start in April. This would add to reciprocal tariffs and the 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. All these duties might lead to a global trade war that would hurt the global economy. At the same time, traders were worried about rising tensions between Ukraine and Russia. Although Trump promised peace, he has caused suspicion, especially from Ukraine. Consequently, hopes for a near-term end to the Ukraine war have diminished. AUD/USD key events today US unemployment claims AUD/USD technical forecast: 30-SMA support prompts a rebound On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has bounced off the 30-SMA with a strong bullish candle. At the same time, the RSI has pushed off the pivotal 50 level, indicating a surge in bullish momentum. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The price had paused its rally as the 30-SMA caught up. If bulls maintain this momentum, the price will soon retest the 0.6400 resistance level to make a new high in the bullish trend. A break above this resistance will strengthen the bullish bias. However, bears have been puncturing the 30-SMA support since the uptrend started. This is a sign that they are attempting a takeover. If they succeed at any point, the price will break below the 30-SMA to indicate a shift in sentiment. However, the trend will only reverse when the price starts making lower highs and lows. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/20/aud-usd-forecast-aussie-strengthens-as-job-market-shines/
2025-02-19 08:39
The EUR/USD forecast indicates declining hopes for a near-term end to the Ukraine war. Ukraine’s president postponed his journey to Saudi Arabia. Market participants are looking forward to the FOMC meeting minutes. The EUR/USD forecast indicates declining hopes for a near-term peace deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war. While this hurts the euro, the dollar gains on safe-haven demand as market participants dump risky assets. At the start of the week, the euro rallied to new highs after reports that Trump was ready to mediate a ceasefire deal between Ukraine and Russia. Trump said the two top leaders were ready for peace, which would allow the Eurozone economy to recover from the impacts of the war. The two leaders were to meet with Trump in Saudi Arabia to discuss a peace deal. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- However, things changed slightly when Ukraine’s president postponed his journey to Saudi Arabia. Zelenskyy is weary of a deal between the US and Russia behind his back. Meanwhile, Russia has moved to demand more from the peace deal, which could lead to further delays. Tensions between the two nations could prolong the Ukraine war and hurt the euro. Meanwhile, the dollar will benefit from safe-haven demand. Elsewhere, market participants are looking forward to the FOMC meeting minutes, which might contain clues about future policy moves. Market participants are currently pricing two rate cuts this year after a downbeat sales report on Friday revealed weka consumer spending. EUR/USD key events today FOMC Meeting Minutes EUR/USD technical forecast: Bears face the 30-SMA support On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has fallen to the 30-SMA support after failing to break above the 1.0500 resistance level. At the same time, the RSI has dropped to the pivotal 50 level, separating bullish and bearish momentum. At this point, bulls and bears are likely fighting for control. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Bulls took control when the price broke above the 30-SMA and the 1.0400 resistance level. However, the 1.0500 is a solid resistance level that has reversed the trend before. Therefore, if the price breaks below the 30-SMA, bears will take charge and target lower support levels. On the other hand, if bulls remain in the lead, EUR/USD will bounce off the 30-SMA to retest the 1.0500 resistance. A break above this level would solidify the bullish bias and continue the uptrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/19/eur-usd-forecast-peace-deal-uncertainty-weighs-on-eur/
2025-02-19 07:50
The USD/CAD price analysis shows hotter-than-expected underlying inflation in Canada. Markets are pricing a 63% chance of a BoC pause in March. The US dollar strengthened amid safe-haven buying. The USD/CAD price analysis shows hotter-than-expected underlying inflation in Canada, leading to a decline in the Bank of Canada rate cut expectations. As a result, the Canadian dollar strengthened. However, the move was subdued as the dollar also gained due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia that could stall a peace deal. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- Data on Tuesday revealed that inflation in Canada increased by 0.1% in January, which aligns with estimates. Meanwhile, the annual figure increased by 1.9%. However, underlying inflation exceeded estimates, easing pressure on the Bank of Canada to lower borrowing costs. The median and trimmed CPI numbers increased by 2.7%, beating estimates. After the inflation report, markets were pricing a 63% chance of a BoC pause in March. This figure increased from 56% before the report, boosting the Canadian dollar. Elsewhere, the US dollar strengthened amid safe-haven buying on Tuesday and Wednesday. Risk appetite fell after reports of a likely stall in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy postponed his travels to Saudi Arabia to March 10th. Meanwhile, Russia took a harder stance regarding the peace deal, raising fears it might not come soon. Continued tensions between the two countries will keep the risk of an escalation alive. USD/CAD key events today FOMC Meeting Minutes USD/CAD technical price analysis: Bears keeping pressure On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is edging lower and could retest the 1.4150 support level. Moreover, the price trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI under 50, suggesting a bearish bias. The price fell sharply after it broke below the 1.4300 support level. However, it paused at the 1.4150 support, leading to a pullback. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, when bears returned after the pullback, price action showed weaker momentum. The price has made small-bodied candles. This is a sign that bears are exhausted, or bulls are getting stronger. If this continues, the price might fail to break below the 1.4150 support. In this case, bears would return to push the price above the SMA and retest the 1.4300 level. On the other hand, if bulls regain momentum, the price will break past 1.4150 to make a lower low and continue the downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/19/usd-cad-price-analysis-hotter-inflation-dims-boc-cut-bets/
2025-02-18 09:03
The USD/CAD price analysis shows anticipation before Canada’s CPI. Economists expect Canada’s monthly inflation to rise by 0.1% after a 0.4% drop. Data on Friday revealed a sharp decline in US sales. The USD/CAD price analysis shows anticipation building ahead of crucial inflation figures from Canada. Meanwhile, the dollar recovered slightly on Monday as market participants looked forward to the FOMC policy meeting minutes. However, the currency held near lows hit last week after downbeat sales data and delays in Trump’s tariffs. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- Canada will release its consumer inflation report later in the day, shaping the outlook for Bank of Canada rate cuts. Economists believe price pressures increased, with the monthly figure rising by 0.1% after a 0.4% drop. Meanwhile, the annual figure might increase by 2.5%, compared to the previous reading of 2.4%. Such an outcome would ease pressure on the Bank of Canada to lower borrowing costs. Consequently, the loonie would continue its recent rally. On the other hand, if inflation is lower than expected, the BoC would be under immense pressure to cut, especially with uncertainty regarding Trump’s tariffs. Meanwhile, the dollar recovered after a bearish week. Data on Friday revealed a sharp decline in sales, leading to a surge in Fed rate cut expectations. At the same time, a delay in Trump’s reciprocal tariffs weakened demand for the greenback. This week, traders will watch for policy clues in the FOMC minutes. USD/CAD key events today Canada CPI m/m Canada median CPI y/y Canada trimmed CPI y/y USD/CAD technical price analysis: Bears find their feet after range breakout On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has paused its decline near the 1.4150 support level. This has allowed the price to recover slightly. However, it still trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI under 50, suggesting a bearish bias. Therefore, even if the price continues higher, it might fail to break above the 30-SMA. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The beamish move comes after a consolidation period when the price held steady between the 1.4300 support and the 1.4501 resistance levels. Initially, bulls broke out of this range after a spike in volatility. However, the price fell back into the area before breaking below the range support. Given the strong bearish bias, USD/CAD might soon bounce lower to retest the 1.4150 support level. A break below this level will make a lower low confirming the new bearish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/18/usd-cad-price-analysis-traders-brace-for-canada-inflation/
