2025-02-13 08:33
The EUR/USD outlook shows an increasing likelihood of ending the Ukraine war. The Ukraine war has had negative effects on the Eurozone economy. The dollar rallied against most of its peers except the euro after US inflation data came in higher than expected. The EUR/USD outlook remains positive amid the increasing likelihood of ending the Russia-Ukraine war. As a result, the euro gained despite upbeat US inflation figures that strengthened the dollar against most of its peers. Reports on Wednesday revealed that the US President is ready to mediate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. Trump talked to Ukraine’s Zelenskiy and Russia’s Putin and said that both leaders wanted peace and an end to the war. For almost three years now, the Ukraine war has had negative effects on the Eurozone economy. At the same time, it has impacted the global economy, especially leading to a dramatic surge in oil prices that pushed inflation in most major economies higher. An end to the war would eliminate the ever-present risk of an escalation. Moreover, it would allow the Eurozone economy to recover from the impacts of the war. Elsewhere, the dollar rallied against most of its peers except the euro after inflation data came in higher than expected. The monthly CPI increased by 0.5%, above estimates of 0.3%. Meanwhile, the annual figure increased by 3.0%, beating forecasts of 2.9%. The upbeat report led to a drop in Fed rate cut expectations, supporting the dollar. EUR/USD key events today US Core PPI m/m US PPI m/m US unemployment claims EUR/USD technical outlook: Bulls eye the 1.0500 resistance On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has broken above a strong resistance zone comprising the 30-SMA, a bearish trendline and the 1.0400 resistance level. The break indicates a surge in bullish momentum that could lead to a new uptrend. Initially, the price was trading in a corrective bearish move, chopping through the 30-SMA. However, when the price made a higher low near the 1.0301 support level, it was a sign that bulls would seek a higher high. As a result, the price rallied and broke above the 30-SMA and its resistance trendline. Moreover, it broke above the 1.0400 and made a higher high. Given the stronger bullish momentum, EUR/USD might climb to retest the 1.0500 resistance. A break above this level will strengthen the bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/13/eur-usd-outlook-russia-ukraine-optimism-boosts-euro/
2025-02-13 07:26
The USD/JPY forecast suggests a brief pause after a rally in the previous session. The US reported that inflation increased by 0.5% in January. Market participants are keeping an eye on Trump’s tariff developments. The USD/JPY forecast suggests a brief retreat as traders take profits after an upbeat US inflation report. However, the bullish bias remains intact as market participants price a hawkish Fed and only one rate cut this year. High borrowing costs will keep a wide gap in rates between the US and Japan, hurting the yen. The dollar rallied to new peaks against the yen after an upbeat consumer inflation report, reversing the previous downtrend. The US reported that inflation increased by 0.5% in January, well above estimates of a 0.3% increase. At the same time, the annual figure jumped by 3.0%, beating forecasts of 2.9%. The unexpectedly hot numbers pushed market participants to slash bets for Fed rate cuts. After the report, traders were only pricing 28-bps of rate cuts this year, down from 37-bps. Meanwhile, market participants are keeping an eye on Trump’s tariff developments. The US President has promised to impose duties on all countries that have tariffs on US goods. Such an outcome would rekindle fears of a global trade war and economic uncertainty. Moreover, tariffs will likely keep US inflation high, forcing the Fed to keep rates at elevated levels. USD/JPY key events today US core PPI m/m US PPI m/m US unemployment claims USD/JPY technical forecast: Bulls pause to retest 154.01 as support On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken above the 30-SMA and soared past the 154.01 resistance level. At the same time, the RI has jumped and now trades near the overbought region. This shows a strong shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish. Previously, the price had shown massive bearish momentum when it collapsed through the 154.01 support and reached the 151.02 level. However, bears could not continue beyond this level. As a result, bulls emerged and made an engulfing candle that signaled a looming reversal. Soon after, the price broke above the SMA, rising to new highs. At the moment, the price is retesting the 154.01 level as support. If it holds firm, the price will likely climb to the 156.00 resistance level. However, it might drop further to the 30-SMA before making new highs. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/13/usd-jpy-forecast-investors-lock-in-gains-after-inflation-rally/
2025-02-12 08:57
The GBP/USD forecast indicates resilience in the pound. Trump announced a new 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. Traders are waiting for the US CPI report to provide more clues on future Fed rate cuts. The GBP/USD forecast indicates resilience in the UK currency as Britain remains one of the least vulnerable economies to Trump’s tariffs. However, market participants remained cautious ahead of US inflation figures and UK GDP data. At the start of the week, Trump announced a new 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports that will affect several major economies. However, the market reaction was subdued. Previous tariff threats have caused market turmoil, plunging the currencies of the countries involved, such as the Canadian dollar. Meanwhile, the pound remains safe as none of Trump’s recent tariffs have directly impacted the UK economy. Nevertheless, the US president has mentioned a reciprocal tariff on all imports to the US. Meanwhile, the dollar eased on Tuesday as markets shifted their focus from tariffs to the US economy and monetary policy. Powell’s speech on Tuesday had little surprises as the Fed Chair maintained his cautious tone. He emphasized that there was no hurry to lower borrowing costs. Traders will now wait for the US CPI report for more clues on future rate cuts. Meanwhile, the UK will release its GDP report on Thursday. Economists believe it will be another downbeat figure as the slowdown in the economy continues. GBP/USD key events today US core CPI m/m US CPI m/m US CPI y/y Fed Chair Powell Testifies GBP/USD technical forecast: Bulls set sights on the 1.2550 resistance On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken above the 30-SMA after failing to sustain a move below the 1.2400 key level. Above the SMA, with the RSI above 50, the price has a bullish bias and will likely soon climb to retest the 1.2550 resistance level. However, bulls have come near this resistance level three times and failed to continue higher. The first time the price neared the level, it reversed and broke below the 30-SMA. The second time, it did the same. In this third attempt, if bulls fail to break above 1.2550, bears might take charge and reverse the trend entirely. This would allow GBP/USD to reach prices below 1.2251. On the other hand, if bulls gain enough momentum to breach the resistance, the bullish trend will continue higher. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/12/gbp-usd-forecast-uk-economy-unaffected-by-trumps-tariffs/
2025-02-12 07:21
Markets barely reacted to Trump’s latest tariff threats. Powell stated that the Fed would not hurry to lower interest rates. Economists believe US inflation increased by 0.3% in January. The EUR/USD price analysis shows easing tariff concerns that have weakened the dollar and strengthened the euro. Markets have shifted their focus to the upcoming US consumer inflation report, which will give more clues on the outlook for monetary policy in the US. Traders are less concerned about Trump’s tariffs as markets barely reacted to his latest threats. The US President promised a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports. The new tariffs will impact the Eurozone and Canada, among other nations. However, the Eurozone has promised an appropriate response to any such duties. The tariffs would pressure the ECB to further cut interest rates as economic demand slowed down. On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress that the Fed would not hurry to lower interest rates. His remarks revealed caution among policymakers due to uncertainty regarding the impact of Trump’s policies. The dollar fell because markets had expected these remarks. Meanwhile, market participants expect the US consumer inflation report for guidance on the outlook for Fed rate cuts. Economists believe inflation increased by 0.3% in January. A bigger increase will lower expectations for rate cuts, boosting the dollar. On the other hand, if inflation is softer than expected, the dollar will drop as rate-cut expectations rise. EUR/USD key events today US core CPI m/m US CPI m/m US CPI y/y Fed Chair Powell Testifies EUR/USD technical price analysis: Bulls testing solid resistance hurdle On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has broken above the 30-SMA, and the RSI trades above 50, suggesting a bullish bias. The price recently bounced higher after meeting the 1.0301 support level. However, bulls are facing a solid resistance trendline. Moreover, right after the trendline is the 1.0400 key level. A break above these levels will confirm a bullish shift in sentiment. However, bulls must push higher and start making higher highs and lows to confirm a new bullish trend. On the other hand, if any of these two resistance levels hold firm, the price will likely drop back below the 30-SMA to retest the 1.0301 support level. A break below this level would confirm a continuation of the downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/12/eur-usd-price-analysis-euro-rebounds-on-fading-tariff-worries/
2025-02-11 09:02
Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. The outlook for the US economy is brightening with additional tariffs. Economists believe US inflation will be slower, increasing by 0.3% in January. The USD/CAD price analysis shows CAD sellers returning to the market amid fears of the impact of Trump’s new tariffs on Canada’s economy. However, trading remained thin as market participants eagerly waited for the crucial US consumer inflation report due on Wednesday. The Canadian dollar eased after Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports starting on 4th March. Canada got a one-month relief from a 25% tariff on all its goods to the US. However, the country is also a major exporter of steel and aluminum to the US. Therefore, the new tariffs have dimmed the outlook for Canada’s economy. Moreover, the Bank of Canada will be under a lot of pressure to lower borrowing costs and support the economy. Meanwhile, the outlook for the US economy is brightening with additional tariffs. Duties on imports will force consumers to buy local products, boosting economic demand. At the same time, local production will increase, further supporting the economy. Meanwhile, market participants expect the US consumer inflation report on Wednesday. Economists believe inflation will be slower, increasing by 0.3% in January. Meanwhile, the annual figure might mirror the previous month’s 2.9% increase. An upbeat report will boost USD/CAD as it will imply a hawkish Fed and a monetary policy divergence between the US and Canada. USD/CAD key events today Fed Chair Powell Testifies USD/CAD technical price analysis: Small-bodied candles indicate indecision On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has paused near the 1.4300 support level. The pause comes after a sharp decline that pushed the price well below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI dropped below 50, indicating stronger bearish momentum. However, bears were unable to break below the 1.4300 support, allowing the 30-SMA to catch up. The pause also allowed bulls to resurface and break above the 30-SMA. However, the break was weak as the price is making small-bodied candles. This is a sign that there is still indecision at this level, with bears and bulls fighting for control. If bulls win, the price will climb higher to retest the 1.4450 resistance level. On the other hand, if bears win, the price will break below the 1.4300 support to make lower lows. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/11/usd-cad-price-analysis-tariff-fears-boost-greenback/
2025-02-11 07:19
The US would impose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports starting in March. Australia’s Prime Minister said that the country might be exempted from the new tariffs. Traders are looking forward to the US consumer inflation report. The AUD/USD outlook shows a resilient Australian dollar amid reports that Australia might be exempted from Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs. Meanwhile, the dollar held steady against most major peers after Trump’s administration confirmed more tariffs starting in March. At the same time, market participants are looking forward to US inflation figures. Trump announced on Monday that the US would impose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, boosting the dollar. Furthermore, the president promised to give more details on a looming reciprocal tariff. These duties have increased concerns about trade wars, hurting risk appetite. As a result, market participants have dumped risky assets and bought the dollar. However, the Australian dollar strengthened after Australia’s Prime Minister said that the country might be exempted from the new tariffs. At the same time, data on Tuesday revealed that business confidence in Australia jumped in January amid increased hopes of an RBA rate cut. Meanwhile, traders are looking forward to the US consumer inflation report due on Wednesday. Economists expect monthly inflation to increase by 0.3%. Meanwhile, the annual figure might hold steady at 2.9%. An upbeat report will convince the Fed to keep interest rates elevated. On the other hand, soft inflation might increase Fed rate cut expectations. AUD/USD key events today Fed Chair Powell Testifies AUD/USD technical outlook: Bulls prepare to bounce off the 30-SMA support On the technical side, the AUD/USD price trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI above 50, indicating a bullish bias. However, the bullish trend paused when the price met the 0.6300 key resistance level. The pause led to a pullback to the 30-SMA support. Here, bulls resurfaced, ready to push the price to a new high. A break above the 0.6300 resistance will allow AUD/USD to make a higher high, confirming a continuation of the bullish trend. This means the price might retest and break above the 0.6350 level. On the other hand, if the resistance holds firm, the price might fall below the 30-SMA to target the 0.6200 support level. However, to confirm a new bearish trend, the price must start making lower highs and lows. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/11/aud-usd-outlook-aussie-strengthens-on-hopes-of-tariff-relief/
