2025-01-30 07:38

ECB policymakers have shown strong support for a rate cut this week. The US central bank kept borrowing costs unchanged on Wednesday. The Fed remained cautious due to uncertainty regarding Trump’s policies. The EUR/USD outlook remains vulnerable as the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates in today’s meeting. Meanwhile, the dollar remained steady after Fed officials unanimously voted to keep interest rates unchanged. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- Recent ECB policymaker remarks strongly support a rate cut this week. Inflation in the Eurozone came in at 2.4% in December, a short distance from the 2% target. On the other hand, the economy has slowed significantly, forcing the ECB to focus more on reviving demand than lowering inflation. Economists believe the central bank will cut rates and signal more to come. Such an outcome would weigh on the dollar and create a divergence in policy outlooks between the Fed and the ECB. The US central bank kept borrowing costs unchanged on Wednesday despite recent calls from Trump to lower borrowing costs. Policymakers remain worried about inflation, which has paused above the 2% target. Additionally, the Fed remained cautious due to uncertainty regarding Trump’s policies. If the US president successfully imposes tariffs, demand for local goods will increase. At the same time, manufacturing in the US will surge, boosting the economy. This will translate to higher price pressures, likely forcing the Fed to pause for longer. EUR/USD key events today ECB main refinancing rate ECB monetary policy statement US advance GDP q/q US unemployment claims EUR/USD technical outlook: Bears pause at the 1.0400 support On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has paused near the 1.0400 support level after breaking out of its bullish channel. The price trades below the 30-SMA, and the RSI is below 50, suggesting a strong bearish bias. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The previous bullish move paused near the 1.0500 key psychological level. Bulls attempted to break above but failed even to reach the channel resistance. Soon after, price action showed a surge in bearish momentum with large red candles. This led to a channel breakout and a break below the 30-SMA. Bears are on the verge of making lower lows. If the price breaches the 1.0400 support, it will fall to the 1.0301 level. The bearish bias will remain strong if the price stays below the 30-SMA and the RSI below 50. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/30/eur-usd-outlook-euro-struggles-as-ecb-rate-cut-looms/

2025-01-30 07:17

The BoC lowered borrowing costs by 25-bps as expected. Canada’s central bank downgraded its economic forecasts. The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged as expected. The USD/CAD forecast shows a divergence in policy and economic outlooks between the Bank of Canada and the Fed due to Trump’s policies. BoC policymakers are worried Trump’s tariffs will weaken the economy, leading to more rate cuts. On the other hand, Fed officials remained silent about rate cuts as Trump’s policies could boost the economy, forcing them to pause. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- On Wednesday, the BoC lowered borrowing costs by 25-bps as expected. At the same time, policymakers noted that a tariff on Canadian goods to the US would significantly hurt the economy. As a result, the central bank downgraded its economic forecasts. Such a dim outlook for the economy puts pressure on officials to keep cutting interest rates to balance the effects of Trump’s policies. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged as expected, maintaining a cautious tone. Market participants had waited to hear more about future rate cuts. However, Powell gave little guidance on future moves. Moreover, he pointed to the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policy changes. Experts believe tariffs will boost the US economy. Therefore, the Fed will likely keep rates elevated, a divergence from the BoC’s outlook. High rates in the US and low borrowing costs in Canada will create a wide gap that will boost the USD/CAD pair. USD/CAD key events today US advance GDP q/q US unemployment claims USD/CAD technical forecast: Bulls struggle to end consolidation On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has pulled back after another failed attempt to break above its range resistance. However, the bullish bias within the range remains strong since the price trades above the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI trades above 50 in bullish territory. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Therefore, if USD/CAD does not break below the SMA, bulls might make another attempt to break the 1.4450 resistance level. On the other hand, if the range resistance remains firm, bears will take the lead by breaking below the SMA to revisit the range support. USD/CAD has maintained a holding pattern long after the previous bullish trend. Bulls are making more attempts to break out of this range than bears. If they succeed, the bullish trend will continue past the 1.4551 level. If they fail, the trend will likely reverse to the downside. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/30/usd-cad-forecast-boc-fed-divergence-widens-after-trump/

2025-01-29 07:16

Australia’s CPI increased by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, missing estimates. Traders are pricing an 80% chance of an RBA rate cut in February. Market participants are preparing for the Fed policy meeting. The AUD/USD forecast shows higher expectations for an RBA rate cut in February due to cooling inflation in Australia. Meanwhile, the dollar held firm after US tariff signals and ahead of the Federal Reserve policy meeting. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- Data on Wednesday revealed that lower housing costs contributed to a decline in price pressures in Australia. The CPI increased by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, missing estimates of a 0.3% increase. High inflation has kept the Reserve Bank of Australia cautious despite a global wave of rate cuts. However, recent data has shown some easing, which has raised expectations for a rate cut. After the inflation report, traders were pricing an 80% chance that the RBA would start its easing cycle in February. As a result, the Australian dollar dropped. Australia’s currency had remained fragile since Monday when reports of a new Chinese AI model dampened risk appetite. Meanwhile, the dollar recovered on Tuesday as the risk of import tariffs increased with Trump’s remarks. On Monday, the US president pointed out specific goods that would attract duties, including pharmaceuticals. Moreover, the US Treasury Secretary has called for a universal tariff that will increase monthly. Elsewhere, market participants are preparing for the Fed policy meeting later on Wednesday. The central bank will likely keep rates unchanged. Moreover, policymakers might assume a cautious tone due to tariff uncertainty. AUD/USD key events today Federal Funds Rate FOMC Statement FOMC Press Conference AUD/USD technical forecast: Bears trigger a channel breakout On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has broken out of its bullish channel, indicating a bearish shift in sentiment. Bears took charge when the price retested its channel resistance. They pushed the price below the 30-SMA. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- At the same time, the RSI dropped below the 50 level, suggesting stronger bearish momentum. Soon after, the price broke below the channel support level. If this is a false breakout, AUD/USD will soon reverse to reenter the bullish channel. On the other hand, if bears are ready to take charge, the price will target the 0.6200 support level. A break below this level will pave the way to the 0.6150 level. Additionally, bears must start making lower highs and lows to confirm a downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/29/aud-usd-forecast-rba-rate-cut-odds-grow-as-inflation-eases/

2025-01-29 06:33

The US dollar rebounded on Tuesday as market focus shifted to looming tariffs. The Fed will meet on Wednesday and likely keep interest rates unchanged. Market participants are pricing an 87% chance of a BoE rate cut next week. The GBP/USD price analysis shows a pause in the previous session’s decline as caution sets in ahead of the FOMC policy meeting. Meanwhile, market participants watch US political developments for clues on Trump’s tariffs. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- In the previous session, the greenback recovered as the AI turmoil on Monday eased. The US dollar had collapsed amid fears of the impact of a new low-cost AI model in China. This caused a rush to safe-haven assets other than the dollar. However, the US currency rebounded on Tuesday as market focus shifted to looming tariffs. At the start of the week, Trump announced duties on specific goods like steel. At the same time, his Treasury secretary has shown support for a universal tariff that will increase monthly. Tariffs on imported goods will shift demand to locally produced goods, boosting the US economy. Increased demand will also likely increase inflation, putting pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates high. The US Central Bank will meet on Wednesday and likely keep interest rates unchanged. Moreover, policymakers may remain cautious as they await more clarity on tariffs. Meanwhile, market participants are pricing an 87% chance of a rate cut when the Bank of England meets next week, supporting a bearish outlook. GBP/USD key events today BOE Gov Bailey Speaks Federal Funds Rate FOMC Statement FOMC Press Conference GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bulls aim for the 1.2550 resistance level On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is bouncing higher after meeting the 1.2425 support level. Moreover, it trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI above 50, supporting a bullish bias. Since the trend reversed at the bottom of the chart, bulls have maintained a steep rally, keeping the price above the 30-SMA. At the same time, the price has made higher highs and higher lows. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The most recent peak paused to allow bulls to rest as the SMA caught up. If bullish momentum remains strong, the price will rally to the 1.2550 resistance level, making a higher high. A break above this resistance would solidify the bullish bias. On the other hand, a break below the 30-SMA would indicate a bearish shift in sentiment, leading to a likely reversal. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/29/gbp-usd-price-analysis-caution-reigns-as-fed-decision-looms/

2025-01-28 07:08

The yen rallied as investors scrambled for safety after news of a new free Chinese AI. Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on specific goods. Market participants eagerly awaited the FOMC policy meeting. The USD/JPY price analysis shows the dollar regaining its footing against the yen as market participants look forward to the FOMC meeting. At the same time, Trump’s remarks on tariffs in the previous session revived the greenback. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- On Monday, the yen rallied as investors scrambled for safety after news of a free Chinese AI model shook markets. Risks appetite plunged after reports revealed that DeepSeek, a Chinese company, was introducing an AI model that uses less data and lower-cost chips. The AI industry in the US has supported a strong rally in equities in recent years. Therefore, the threat of low cost AI in China significantly hurts the risk appetite. However, this was bullish for the yen, considered a traditional safe-haven. Nevertheless, there was some support for the dollar when Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on steel, imported computer chips, and pharmaceuticals. As a result, demand for locally produced goods will increase, boosting the economy. At the same time, market participants eagerly awaited the FOMC policy meeting. Economists expect the Fed to maintain interest rates. Moreover, analysts believe policymakers might maintain a cautious tone. Trump’s policies and their impact on the economy remain uncertain. Therefore, the US Central Bank might prefer a gradual approach as the economy adjusts to the new administration. Such an outlook will likely boost the dollar. USD/JPY key events today US CB consumer confidence USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bullish RSI divergence On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has rebounded and paused at the 30-SMA resistance. Meanwhile, the RSI trades slightly above 50, showing bulls are gaining momentum. The previous downtrend started showing weakness when the price punctured the 30-SMA resistance. However, bulls were unable to break above the 156.51 resistance level. As a result, the price fell to a lower low near the 154.01 support level. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Although price action indicated a continuation of the downtrend, the RSI made a bullish divergence, showing fading momentum. Consequently, bulls resurfaced at the 154.01 support, pushing the price to the 30-SMA. Given the divergence, the price will likely breach the SMA resistance. However, bulls must also break above 156.51 to confirm a reversal. If this happens, USD/JPY will retest the 158.50 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/28/usd-jpy-price-analysis-dollar-steadies-eying-fed-policy-signals/

2025-01-28 06:24

On Monday, a new Chinese company, DeepSeek, revealed a free AI model. The greenback strengthened after US President Donald Trump resumed his tariff threats. Data revealed that business conditions in Australia improved in December. The AUD/USD outlook shows poor risk appetite after a Chinese company unveiled a new free AI model that rocked the markets. At the same time, the dollar gained as Trump made more threats to impose tariffs on specific goods. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- A new Chinese company, DeepSeek, revealed a free AI model on Monday that sent investors scrambling for safe-haven assets like the yen. On the other hand, equities and risky currencies like the Aussie collapsed. Notably, the panic came from news that the AI model uses lower-cost chips and less data, meaning big competition for US AI companies like Nvidia. The Australian dollar is a risk-sensitive currency that reacts to a shift in market sentiment. Moreover, the currency fell as the greenback strengthened after US President Donald Trump resumed his tariff threats. He announced plans to impose tariffs on imported computer chips, pharmaceuticals, and steel. Such an outcome would increase US production and demand, boosting the economy and the dollar. Meanwhile, on Tuesday, data revealed that business conditions in Australia improved in December. However, this resulted from increased shopping during the Christmas season. Traders are still pricing a likely RBA rate cut in February. On the other hand, the Fed will likely keep rates unchanged on Wednesday. AUD/USD key events today US CB consumer confidence AUD/USD technical outlook: Bears hit channel support On the technical side, the AUD/USD price trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI below 50, suggesting a bearish bias. However, on a larger scale, the price trades in a bullish channel with a clear support and resistance line. The recent decline has brought the price to channel support, where bulls might emerge to seek new highs. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- However, bulls must break above the 30-SMA and the 0.6300 resistance level to make higher highs. If this happens, USD/JPY will reach its channel resistance. On the other hand, If any of these resistances holds firm, bears might break out of the channel to signal a shift in sentiment. In this case, bears would aim for support levels like 0.6200 and 0.6150. Moreover, if the price maintains its position below the 30-SMA, it will confirm a steep downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/28/aud-usd-outlook-chinas-free-ai-model-unleashes-uncertainty/