2025-01-27 07:19

Last week, the euro gained due to a wave of optimism regarding Trump’s tariff policy approach. Data on Friday revealed a rebound in Eurozone business activity. Economists predict a 25-bps rate cut during the European Central Bank meeting. The EUR/USD outlook suggests caution ahead of monetary policy meetings in the US and the Eurozone. Nevertheless, the pair eased from last week’s peaks as markets anticipated a Fed pause and ECB rate cut. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- Last week, the euro gained against the dollar due to a wave of optimism regarding Trump’s tariff policy approach. The risk of further slowdown in the Eurozone economy fell after Trump failed to give more guidance on import tariffs. This indicated that he would likely take a more gradual approach than anticipated. Furthermore, data on Friday revealed a rebound in the Eurozone economy that boosted the euro. Business activity in France and Germany improved significantly, easing pressure on the European Central Bank to cut rates. Nevertheless, policymakers made remarks supporting a rate cut this week and more to come during the year. Economists predict a 25-bps rate cut during the European Central Bank meeting this week. At the same time, policymakers might maintain their dovish tone, leading to a decline in the euro. On the other hand, the Fed will likely keep rates unchanged. They might also emphasize caution due to uncertainty about Trump’s policies, supporting the dollar. EUR/USD key events today Neither the Eurozone nor the US will release major reports today. Consequently, the price might consolidate ahead of central bank meetings. EUR/USD technical outlook: Bulls meet a strong hurdle at 1.0500 On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has made a new high in its bullish trend, near the 1.0500 key psychological level. After reaching this high, the price paused and started retreating. However, the bullish trend remains intact since it trades above the 30-SMA, with the RSI above 50. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Recently, the EUR/USD trend reversed from bearish to bullish, with the price breaking above the 30-SMA. Bulls have kept the price above the SMA, respecting it as support. At the same time, the price has made higher highs and lows. Therefore, there is a high chance this uptrend will continue. The price might retest the 30-SMA and its channel support before climbing to break above the 1.0500 resistance level. A higher high will confirm a continuation of the bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/27/eur-usd-outlook-investors-brace-for-ecb-fed-policy-decisions/

2025-01-27 06:22

The Canadian dollar strengthened amid relief over Trump’s soft approach to tariffs. The US released softer-than-expected business activity data. The Fed will likely keep rates unchanged while the BoC lowers. The USD/CAD forecast indicates increasing bullish sentiment as market participants gear up for monetary policy meetings in the US and Canada. The Fed will likely keep rates unchanged and remain cautious. On the other hand, economists expect the Bank of Canada to lower borrowing costs by 25-bps. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- Last week, the Canadian dollar strengthened amid relief over Trump’s soft approach to tariffs. The US president had many occasions where he could have emphasized and given more guidance on his tariff proposals. However, he remained mostly silent. Moreover, there is a likelihood he will not impose any tariffs on China. The loonie also strengthened as the week ended with downbeat US economic data. The dollar dropped after the US released softer-than-expected business activity data. Service sector business activity fell sharply, with the PMI dropping from 56.8 to 52.8. However, as the week ended, the market focus shifted to the looming policy meetings in the US and Canada. The Fed will likely keep rates unchanged while the BoC lowers. Such an outcome might strengthen the dollar and weaken the loonie, leading to a rally in the USD/CAD price. However, traders will also focus on the messaging for future policy moves. USD/CAD key events today Market participants are not looking forward to high-impact economic reports from the US or Canada today. Therefore, the price will likely consolidate. USD/CAD technical forecast: Consolidation continues On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has maintained its consolidation between the 1.4300 support and the 1.4450 resistance levels. A spike in volatility last week failed to trigger a breakout. Currently, volatility has fallen back to normal levels. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The price trades above the 30-SMA within the range, with the RSI slightly above 50, suggesting a bullish bias. Therefore, bulls might soon challenge the range resistance. A strong break above the 1.4450 resistance will confirm a bullish breakout. Such an outcome would allow USD/CAD to reach the 1.4551 resistance level. Moreover, if the price starts making higher highs and higher lows, it will confirm a new bullish trend. On the other hand, there is still a chance the price will remain in consolidation. If the 1.4450 resistance holds firm, bears will return to revisit the range support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/27/usd-cad-forecast-markets-turn-upbeat-ahead-of-fed-boc/

2025-01-25 16:57

Data from Canada revealed that inflation eased to 2.4% annually. Canada’s retail sales made no change in November. Next week, investors will focus on policy meetings in Canada and the US. The USD/CAD weekly forecast shows relief over Trump’s soft approach to tariffs supporting the Canadian dollar. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The USD/CAD pair had a bearish week as market participants focused on economic data and US political developments. Data from Canada revealed that inflation eased to 2.4% annually. Meanwhile, retail sales made no change in November. Nevertheless, the Canadian dollar gained on relief that Trump was not too aggressive in imposing tariffs. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- On the other hand, the dollar eased on Friday after data revealed a significant drop in service sector business activity in the US. Downbeat data increases expectations for Fed rate cuts. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week, market participants will focus on data from the US, including durable goods orders and GDP. Moreover, the Fed will hold its policy meeting on Wednesday. The Bank of Canada will also hold its policy meeting on Wednesday. Meanwhile, GDP data from Canada on Friday will impact the Canadian dollar. The GDP reports from Canada and the US will show the state of these two economies, shaping the outlook for monetary policy. The Fed will likely keep rates unchanged. However, traders will focus on messaging for future moves. Meanwhile, market participants expect the BoC to cut rates by 25-bps. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Bears gear up for a trend reversal On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has paused near the 1.4450 resistance level, where the price has started chopping through the 22-SMA. Before the pause, it was on a solid bullish trend, respecting the SMA as support. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- At the same time, bulls kept making higher highs and lows until the price got to the 1.4450 level. Here, bears showed strength by making engulfing candlestick patterns. Moreover, although the price made slightly higher highs, the RSI made lower ones, indicating a bearish divergence. The price currently trades below the 22-SMA, indicating a bearish shift in sentiment. If bears maintain this direction next week, the price might drop to the next support at 1.4003. Such an outcome would confirm a bearish reversal. However, the price will still have to make lower lows and highs to show a new downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/25/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-dollar-dips-on-trumps-soft-stance/

2025-01-25 16:56

The impact of Trump’s tariff threats faded during the week. Data on Friday revealed a significant improvement in Eurozone business activity. Economists expect the US Central Bank to keep interest rates unchanged. The EUR/USD weekly forecast suggests a rebound in the Eurozone economy, reducing ECB rate cut expectations. Ups and downs of EUR/USD Due to upbeat Eurozone economic data, the EUR/USD pair had a bullish week. At the same time, the impact of Trump’s tariff threats faded during the week, allowing the currency to climb. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- The US president has failed to give clear guidance on tariffs since he took office. This reduced the threat of a weaker Eurozone economy and lower borrowing costs. Meanwhile, data on Friday revealed a significant improvement in Eurozone business activity. France and Germany showed improvements, easing pressure on the European Central Bank to lower borrowing costs. Next week’s key events for EUR/USD Next week, traders will focus on economic reports from the US on durable goods orders and gross domestic product. These will shape the outlook for Fed rate cuts this year. In the last two weeks, economic data has shown a slight slowdown in the US economy. If this trend continues next week, Fed rate cut expectations will increase, and the dollar will fall. On the other hand, upbeat data will lower rate cut bets and boost the greenback. Meanwhile, economists expect the US Central Bank to keep interest rates unchanged during the Wednesday meeting. Additionally, traders will focus on the tone during the meeting. EUR/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls sighting 1.0603 resistance level On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has broken above the 22-SMA to indicate a bullish sentiment shift. The break comes after the previous downtrend paused at the 1.0200 support level. The Bears showed exhaustion at this level as they struggled to make significant swings from the 22-SMA. At the same time, the RSI made a bullish divergence, indicating fading bearish momentum. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The break above the SMA has allowed bulls to set their sights on the 1.0603 resistance level. If the level holds firm, the price will pull back to revisit the SMA before continuing higher or dropping back to the 1.0200 support level. A break above 1.0603 will allow EUR/USD to start a new bullish trend. Furthermore, it will clear the path to the 1.0926 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/25/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-upbeat-data-relieves-ecb-cut-odds/

2025-01-24 10:37

Japan’s CPI rose by 3.0% in December. The Bank of Japan hiked rates by 25-bps on Friday morning, boosting the yen. Data revealed a slight increase in US jobless claims last week. The USD/JPY price analysis shows a bullish day for the yen after upbeat inflation data and a rate hike from the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile, the greenback remained fragile after Trump softened his tone on tariffs and said the Fed should continue cutting interest rates. -Are you interested in learning about forex tips? Click here for details- Data on Friday revealed that Japan’s CPI rose by 3.0% in December. This creates the right conditions for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. Notably, the central bank hiked rates by 25-bps on Friday morning, boosting the yen. This was a big milestone for a country that has maintained ultra-low rates for a long time. However, policymakers noted that underlying inflation had only risen moderately. On the other hand, the dollar remained fragile a day after Trump’s speech. The president said little about tariffs, leading most to believe he had softened his approach. Additionally, Trump called on the US Central Bank to continue cutting interest rates, which is bearish for the dollar. At first, analysts had expected the new president to come in guns blazing and ready to implement trade tariffs. However, he hinted at forgoing the 10% tariff on China on Thursday. Instead, the two countries could negotiate better terms of trading. Elsewhere, data revealed a slight increase in US jobless claims last week, showing some cracks in the labor market. USD/JPY key events today US flash manufacturing PMI US flash services PMI USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bears aim for new low below 155.01 On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken below the 30-SMA with a solid candle, indicating a bearish shift in sentiment. Initially, the price had gone from bearish to bullish, breaking above the SMA. -Are you interested in learning about the forex basics? Click here for details- However, this move paused at the 0.5 Fib retracement level, where bears reemerged. The decline is currently approaching the 155.01 support level. A break below this level will allow USD/JPY to revisit the 153.00 key psychological level. At the same time, it will signal a continuation of the downtrend by making a lower low. On the other hand, if the price fails to break below 155.01, it might reverse to start a new bullish trend by breaking above the 157.01 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/24/usd-jpy-price-analysis-yen-rallies-as-boj-tightens-policy/

2025-01-24 09:14

Trump failed to provide guidance on the proposed 25% tariff on Canadian goods. The US president said the Fed should continue lowering borrowing costs. Data from Canada revealed that retail sales made no change in November. The USD/CAD outlook shows the impact of Trump’s tariff threats fading, allowing the Canadian dollar to recover. On the other hand, the US dollar eased after Trump called on the Federal Reserve to continue lowering borrowing costs. -Are you interested in learning about forex tips? Click here for details- Market participants had eagerly awaited Trump’s speech on Thursday for more clues on proposed trade tariffs. However, he failed to provide guidance on the proposed 25% tariff on Canadian goods. As a result, investors were relieved, and the Canadian dollar rebounded. Instead, the US president said the Fed should continue lowering borrowing costs. Analysts have forecasted a hawkish Fed under Trump’s administration. This outlook has boosted the dollar’s rally in recent weeks. However, if the president supports the central bank’s objective of attaining price stability, interest rates will drop, and the dollar will fall. Meanwhile, data from Canada revealed that retail sales made no change in November, compared to estimates of a 0.2% increase. However, traders focused on the flash estimate for December, which indicated a 1.6% jump in sales. A rebound in Canada’s economy will ease pressure on the Bank of Canada to lower borrowing costs, allowing the loonie to recover. USD/CAD key events today US flash manufacturing PMI US flash services PMI USD/CAD technical outlook: Bears aiming for a range breakout On the technical side, the USD/CAD price trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI below 50 in bearish territory. Therefore, bears are in the lead. However, on a larger scale, the price has remained in consolidation between the 1.4300 support and the 1.4450 resistance for a long time. -Are you interested in learning about the forex basics? Click here for details- It has chopped through the 30-SMA with no clear direction during this time. At the same time, the RSI has oscillated between bearish and bullish territory, showing no bias. Therefore, if this consolidation continues, the price will soon reverse at the range support. However, if bears are finally ready to take charge, USD/CAD will break below the range support. Such an outcome would allow the price to make a lower low and start trending lower. Moreover, it will allow bears to retest the support levels like 1.4201. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/24/usd-cad-outlook-safe-havens-hit-by-trumps-optimism/