2025-07-18 11:07

The USD/JPY outlook is pointing north as the dollar remains strong following upbeat retail sales data. US unemployment claims were well below the forecasts. The yen was fragile as markets awaited an election in Japan. The USD/JPY outlook points north as the dollar remains strong after upbeat retail sales data from the previous session. Meanwhile, the yen was fragile as a looming election in Japan created some political uncertainty. The US dollar and Treasury yields rose on Thursday after data revealed solid retail and core retail sales. Sales jumped by 0.6%, surprising economists who had expected a 0.1% increase. The data eased concerns about the state of the economy after Trump’s tariffs. Market participants also focused on jobs data, where unemployment claims were well below the forecasts. These reports, along with this week’s upbeat inflation data, led to a decline in expectations for a Fed rate cut. At the moment, market participants are only pricing a 54% chance of a rate cut in September. Meanwhile, the yen was fragile as markets awaited an election in Japan. Polls are showing that the ruling party might lose. Such an outcome would create uncertainty about fiscal policies. At the same time, it could complicate the ongoing trade talks between the US and Japan. Japan is working hard to avoid a 25% tariff on its exports to the US. USD/JPY key events today Market participants do not expect any key events today. Therefore, they will continue to digest Thursday’s releases. USD/JPY technical outlook: 149.01 resistance poses a challenge On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has paused its rally near the 149.01 level. This is where the price made its previous high. Meanwhile, it trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI above 50, supporting a bullish bias. The price has maintained a solid rally above the SMA, respecting it as support. At the same time, it has made higher highs and lows as it rose. However, after such a steep rally, bulls are struggling to break above the most recent high. The RSI has made a bearish divergence, indicating weaker bullish momentum. If bulls regain strength, the price will break above 149.01 and climb to retest the 150.00 key psychological level. However, if not, bears might break below the SMA and the 148.02 support, indicating a shift in sentiment. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/18/usd-jpy-outlook-dollar-elevated-amid-upbeat-consumer-spending/

2025-07-17 08:36

The GBP/USD outlook shows a rebound in the dollar. The dollar eased in the previous session as traders worried about a likely firing of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The CPI increased by 3.6% compared to the forecast of 3.4%. The GBP/USD outlook shows a rebound in the dollar after Trump denied reports he was planning to fire Powell. However, market participants are still digesting the upbeat UK CPI report that has eased bets for a BoE rate cut. Meanwhile, the US released a wholesale inflation report showing no change in June. The dollar eased in the previous session as traders worried about a likely firing of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Such an outcome would put into question the independence of the Fed. At the same time, it would mean a replacement who would be quick to lower borrowing costs. However, Trump later denied these reports, allowing the dollar to recover some of its losses. Meanwhile, the pound jumped on Wednesday after the UK released a hotter-than-expected inflation report. Notably, the CPI increased by 3.6% compared to the forecast of 3.4%. The jump could prompt policymakers to reassess their outlook for rate cuts. However, data has also shown that economic growth is poor. In the US, wholesale inflation remained unchanged in June. Meanwhile, economists had expected a 0.2% increase. Nevertheless, the upbeat consumer inflation report on Tuesday led to a decline in Fed rate cut expectations. GBP/USD key events today US core retail sales m/m US retail sales m/m US unemployment claims GBP/USD technical outlook: Bears paused at 1.3400 On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has paused its decline near the 1.3400 key support level. The price trades well below the 30-SMA, and the RSI is near the oversold region, suggesting a solid bearish bias. Since GBP/USD broke below the 1.3600 key level, it has not paused or made a significant pullback to the 30-SMA. After such a steep rally, bears are showing some exhaustion near the 1.3400 key level. Meanwhile, bulls have gained momentum. If this is only a pause in the downtrend, the price will soon break below 1.3400 to make new lows. However, if the support is firm, bulls might emerge to push the price above the 30-SMA. Such an outcome would allow GBP/USD to retest the 1.3600 level. It would also signal a shift in sentiment. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/17/gbp-usd-outlook-dollar-rebounds-after-powell-firing-denial/

2025-07-17 08:22

The AUD/USD forecast indicates a surge in RBA rate cut bets. Australia’s economy added only 2,000 jobs, compared to the forecast of 21,000. Reports revealed that Trump was planning to fire Powell. The AUD/USD forecast indicates a surge in RBA rate cut bets after a downbeat jobs report from Australia. Meanwhile, in the US, tensions between Trump and Powell continue to simmer. However, Fed rate cut bets have eased since the upbeat consumer inflation report on Tuesday. Data released on Thursday revealed that Australia’s economy added only 2,000 jobs, compared to the forecast of 21,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate came in at 4.3%, well above the forecast of 4.1%. The jobs report pointed to cracks in a labor market that has been quite resilient. During the last meeting, RBA policymakers unexpectedly kept rates unchanged, saying inflation was still high. However, with labor market weakness, there is a higher chance of a rate cut at the next meeting. After the report, the likelihood of an August rate cut increased from 76% to 85%. As a result, the Australian dollar collapsed. Elsewhere, the dollar eased as reports revealed that Trump was planning to fire Powell. However, the US president denied those reports. Such an outcome would put into question the independence of the Federal Reserve. Moreover, Fed rate cut bets have dropped since the upbeat CPI report. This could lead to increased friction between Trump and Powell. AUD/USD key events today US core retail sales m/m US retail sales m/m US unemployment claims AUD/USD technical forecast: Bears push below the range support On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has broken out of its consolidation. The price has been trading between the 0.6500 support and the 0.6590 resistance levels. However, bears have gained enough momentum to push below the range support. Moreover, the price trades well below the 30-SMA, with the RSI near the oversold region, supporting a bearish bias. However, despite the break, the price has not yet closed below the level. To confirm the break, it must close below, pull back and retest the level before continuing lower. If this happens, AUD/USD will target the 0.6400 support level. On the other hand, if the price fails to confirm a break, it will return to the consolidation area. In this case, bulls would gain momentum to retest the 0.6590 range resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/17/aud-usd-forecast-jobs-miss-boosts-rba-rate-cut-bets/

2025-07-16 09:51

The USD/JPY forecast shows a decline in expectations for Fed rate cuts. The annual US CPI accelerated from 2.4% to 2.7%. Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Japan. The USD/JPY forecast indicates a decline in Fed rate cut expectations, which has dashed hopes of a narrowing rate gap between the US and Japan. As a result, US Treasury yields soared while the yen collapsed to fresh lows. At the same time, market participants are worried about a likely 25% tariff on Japanese exports to the US. Initially, market participants were optimistic about the yen. The Fed and the Bank of Japan were following different monetary paths that would lead to a smaller gap in rates between Japan and the US. The Fed was looking to lower borrowing costs while the BoJ was hiking. However, all this paused when Trump started his aggressive tariffs campaign. The BoJ paused to assess the impact on Japan’s economy. Meanwhile, the Fed delayed cuts due to concerns about a potential spike in inflation. Data on Tuesday confirmed some of the Fed’s fears about tariffs boosting inflation. The annual headline CPI accelerated from 2.4% to 2.7%. At the same time, the monthly figure jumped from 0.1% to 0.3%. The data led to a decline in Fed rate cut expectations. At the same time, Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Japan. Such a move would pause the BoJ’s rate hike campaign. USD/JPY key events today Core PPI m/m PPI m/m USD/JPY technical forecast: Bulls approaching the 150.00 level On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has reached a new high above the key 148.02 resistance level. This has solidified the bullish bias. The price now trades well above the 30-SMA, showing bulls have a strong lead. At the same time, the RSI trades in the overbought region, indicating solid momentum. The price has maintained a bullish trend since it broke above the 30-SMA. It has made a series of higher highs and lows, respecting the SMA as support. Given the strong bullish bias, the uptrend is likely to continue. However, after making a solid swing, bulls might need to pause before reaching new highs. Therefore, the price might pull back to retest the 148.02 level as support. If it holds firm, the next target will be at the 150.00 key psychological level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/16/usd-jpy-forecast-fed-doubts-keep-us-japan-rate-gap-wide/

2025-07-16 09:31

The USD/CAD price analysis shows a retreat from recent peaks. US inflation data confirmed that Trump’s tariffs have increased price pressures in the economy. Canada’s inflation increased from 1.7% in May to 1.9% in June. The USD/CAD price analysis shows a retreat from recent peaks as traders weigh the inflation figures from the US and Canada. US inflation accelerated more than expected in June, leading to a drop in Fed rate cut expectations. At the same time, inflation in Canada increased, lowering the chances of a BoC rate cut in July. The US dollar rallied on Tuesday after data confirmed that Trump’s tariffs have increased price pressures in the economy. The headline inflation figure came in at 2.7%, beating forecasts of 2.6%. Meanwhile, the monthly CPI increased by 0.3% as expected. Higher import prices have led to higher prices for consumers, which may keep the Fed on a cautious path. The report confirmed Powell’s worries about a spike in inflation. Furthermore, Trump is continuing with his tariff campaign and has threatened higher levies on several countries. If tariffs rise again, inflation may continue to climb. This would force the Fed to weigh growth against inflation. Meanwhile, in Canada, data revealed that inflation increased from 1.7% in May to 1.9% in June. This, together with last week’s upbeat jobs report, will likely convince the Bank of Canada to keep rates on hold. USD/CAD key events today US core PPI m/m US PPI m/m USD/CAD technical price analysis: Bulls break past resistance zone, eye 1.3800 On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has broken above a solid resistance zone comprising the 0.618 Fib retracement and the 1.3700 key level. The price now trades above the 30-SMA, with the RSI above 50, supporting a bullish bias. The break above the resistance zone is a significant milestone that has solidified the bullish bias. Initially, the price was consolidating below this zone until the SMA caught up. However, bulls made a solid candle that broke above the resistance and signaled a surge in momentum. After the break, the price is pulling back and might retest the zone before climbing higher. The break has cleared the path to the 1.3800 resistance. However, the price will only climb to this level if bulls can maintain their position above the resistance zone. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/16/usd-cad-price-analysis-traders-weigh-inflation-trends-in-us-ca/

2025-07-15 10:25

The AUD/USD price analysis shows a slight improvement in risk appetite. The US president said he was willing to continue talks with the EU. Market participants are expecting an acceleration in US price pressures. The AUD/USD price analysis shows a slight improvement in risk appetite after Trump showed a willingness to continue trade negotiations. However, the downside potential remains amid renewed global trade tensions. Meanwhile, market participants are eagerly awaiting the crucial US consumer inflation report. Trump recently rekindled trade worries after announcing higher tariffs on several US trading partners. The most recent was a 30% tariff on imports from the Eurozone and Mexico. This caused a decline in risk appetite that hurt the Australian dollar. However, the impact was muted. Moreover, sentiment improved after the US president said he was willing to continue talks with the EU, hoping for a trade deal before the August 1 deadline. However, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar will remain vulnerable as the new tariff deadline looms. Additionally, the risk of a global trade war will continue rising. Elsewhere, Trump continued his attacks on Powell on Monday, calling for him to resign. The constant attacks have caused worries about the independence of the US central bank, hurting the dollar. Meanwhile, market participants are expecting an acceleration in US price pressures. The upcoming CPI report will shape the outlook for future Fed policy moves. AUD/USD key events today US core CPI m/m US CPI m/m US CPI y/y AUD/USD technical price analysis: Bulls aim for the range resistance On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is trading in a sideways move between the 0.6500 support and the 0.6590 resistance. The price has been chopping through the 30-SMA while the RSI has traded in bullish and bearish territory, indicating a range. However, on a smaller scale, bulls are in the lead. The price trades above the 30-SMA, and the RSI is above 50. After retesting the range resistance, the price pulled back to the 30-SMA support. It punctured the line but failed to move lower. As a result, bulls have returned to push the price above the SMA. Given the bullish bias, AUD/USD might soon retest the 0.6590 range resistance. If it holds firm, the price will bounce lower and likely continue consolidating. On the other hand, a break above the resistance would solidify the bullish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/15/aud-usd-price-analysis-trade-talk-optimism-improves-sentiment/