2025-01-21 10:17
Trump only focused on immigration and energy on Monday. Trump told reporters he might be ready to impose near-term tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Market participants will keep a close eye on US political developments. The EUR/USD price analysis portrays renewed bullish momentum after a slow start to Trump’s new term. The euro rallied in the previous session after the new administration failed to give any clues on its tariff plans. However, the pair pulled back slightly when Trump later signaled near-term tariffs on Canada and Mexico. -Are you interested in learning about forex tips? Click here for details- Traders had waited for Trump’s inauguration speech with anticipation. They were waiting to see whether he would state his plans on tariffs and implement them immediately. However, the new president only focused on immigration and energy. Consequently, there was some relief for the euro, which would have suffered at the prospect of near-term tariffs. During the campaigns, Trump proposed a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, and a universal 10% tariff. Such an outcome would significantly weigh on the currencies of these countries. However, these currencies pulled back overnight because Trump told reporters he might be ready to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico in February. Meanwhile, he noted that the country was not ready for universal tariffs. Market participants will keep a close eye on any developments moving forward. EUR/USD key events today Market participants do not expect any high-impact releases from the US or the Eurozone today. Hence, they will monitor political developments in the US. EUR/USD technical price analysis: Broken level retested On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has pulled back to the 1.0350 support level after making a new high to confirm a bullish trend. The previous downtrend paused near the 1.0200 support level, where bulls resurfaced. -Are you interested in learning about the forex basics? Click here for details- Sentiment shifted when the price broke above the 30-SMA and the RSI broke above 50. Bulls confirmed the new trend by respecting the 30-SMA as support and making a higher high. At the same time, the price has started trading in a bullish channel with clear support and resistance trendlines. If EUR/USD finds support at the 1.0350 level, it will bounce higher to retest the 1.0450 resistance level. However, it might fall to the 30-SMA and the channel support before rebounding. Nevertheless, the bullish bias is strong and will remain intact unless the price breaks out of the bullish channel. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/21/eur-usd-price-analysis-trumps-hesitant-beginning-boosts-euro/
2025-01-21 08:45
Trump’s administration did not give any guidance on tariff plans on Monday. Trump told reporters he was considering near-term tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Market participants are looking forward to Canada’s inflation data. The USD/CAD outlook shows a sudden shift in sentiment amid mixed signals on Trump’s tariff plans. The Canadian dollar rallied in the previous session as it became clear that the new administration would not implement tariffs immediately. However, this outlook shifted when Trump hinted at starting next month. -Are you interested in learning about forex tips? Click here for details- On Monday, the greenback collapsed as Trump’s first day in office failed to be as aggressive on policy changes. The new administration did not give any guidance on tariff plans, leading most to believe it would be a gradual shift. As the dollar collapsed, its peers, especially the Canadian dollar soared. For weeks, market participants had worried that Trump would aggressively implement a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada. Therefore, the lack of guidance was a relief for the loonie. Such a heavy tariff would hurt the local economy and push the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further to spur growth. However, the trend turned sharply overnight after Trump told reporters he was considering near-term tariffs on Canada and Mexico. According to him, February 1 might be the right time to implement the tariffs. Elsewhere, market participants are looking forward to inflation data from Canada, which will shape the outlook for Bank of Canada rate cuts. USD/CAD key events today Canada CPI m/m Canada median CPI y/y Canada trimmed CPI y/y USD/CAD technical outlook: Broad range consolidation On the technical side, the USD/CAD price fell back into its range area, confirming a false bullish breakout. However, the price made a whiplash move within the range, reaching the range support and rising back to the resistance with single large candles. This shows increased volatility that was contained in the range. -Are you interested in learning about the forex basics? Click here for details- Currently, the price trades above the 30-SMA, with the RSI above 50, supporting a bullish bias. Initially, bulls broke above the range resistance but failed to close above the level, making a large wick. If they succeed at breaking out, the price will likely breach the 1.4501 resistance level. Otherwise, it will fall back to the range support. A break below the range support would indicate a bearish breakout. However, to confirm a new downtrend, the price would have to start making lower highs and lows. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/21/usd-cad-outlook-sentiment-swings-over-trumps-trade-plans/
2025-01-20 11:19
Inflation data solidified bets for at least two Fed rate cuts this year. Trump’s policy proposals have ignited bets of robust demand. Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada. The USD/CAD outlook suggests growing bullish sentiment as the Canadian dollar weakens ahead of Trump’s likely import tariffs. Meanwhile, the dollar regained momentum as market participants eagerly awaited Trump’s inauguration speech. -Are you interested in learning about forex tips? Click here for details- The Canadian dollar has dropped recently as markets have shifted their focus from economic data to the new US administration. Last week, inflation data solidified bets for at least two Fed rate cuts this year. However, it only kept the dollar down for some time. With Trump as the new president, the US economy is set to grow faster. His policy proposals have ignited bets of robust demand and higher inflation. As a result, the outlook for US monetary policy has shifted to a more gradual one, supporting the dollar. On the other hand, the Canadian dollar is one of the currencies that will suffer the most if Trump implements his policy proposals. The incoming president has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada. If he implements this, it will significantly hurt Canada’s economy, pushing the Bank of Canada to lower borrowing costs further. Such an outcome would weaken the Canadian dollar. On the other hand, if he is not as aggressive as previously thought, the dollar might pull back, relieving the loonie. USD/CAD key events today Market participants are only looking forward to Trump’s inauguration speech since neither the US nor Canada will release key reports. USD/CAD technical outlook: Bullish range breakout On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has made a milestone move, breaking out of its range. For a long time, the price was trapped in a sideways move between the 1.4300 support and the 1.4450 resistance. This consolidation came after a solid bullish trend, indicating a pause as bulls regained momentum. -Are you interested in learning about the forex basics? Click here for details- The price eventually broke above the 1.4450 resistance level and pulled back to retest it. The previous bullish trend will continue if the price bounces off this level to make a higher high. It will likely rise past the 1.4501 key level. However, if the price fails to continue higher, it might fall back into the consolidation area. Such an outcome would signal a false breakout, leading to a retest of the range support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/20/usd-cad-outlook-looming-trump-tariffs-weighs-on-cad/
2025-01-20 10:22
Trump’s presidency might be bullish for the dollar. Trump’s tariffs will increase demand for locally produced goods. Traders expect the Bank of Japan to hike rates this week. The USD/JPY forecast shows indecision ahead of Trump’s inauguration speech. At the same time, market participants are gearing up for the Bank of Japan policy meeting. However, trading might remain thin due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day Holiday in the US. -Are you interested in learning about forex tips? Click here for details- USD/JPY fluctuated on Monday, with the greenback steady amid anticipation of Trump’s policies. Meanwhile, the yen was also steady as market participants priced a high likelihood of a Bank of Japan rate hike on Friday. Analysts have predicted that Trump’s presidency will be bullish for the dollar since his policy proposals might boost economic growth. Traders will wait to see whether he will implement his proposals to cut taxes and impose tariffs on imported goods. Tax cuts will favor the economy by improving the business environment. Meanwhile, tariffs will increase demand for locally produced goods. At the same time, experts believe this will lead to a spike in inflation that would force the Fed to keep interest rates at restrictive levels. On the other hand, traders expect the Bank of Japan to hike rates this week to support a weak yen. At the same time, since Trump’s policies will likely support the dollar, a BoJ rate hike will keep the yen from dropping too much. USD/JPY key events today Market participants do not expect any key reports from the US or Japan. Consequently, market participants will focus on Trump’s inauguration. USD/JPY technical forecast: Bulls pause at 30-SMA hurdle On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has recovered after finding support at the 155.01 key level. However, the bullish move has paused after meeting the 30-SMA resistance line. Moreover, the bearish bias remains intact since the price trades below the 30-SMA, with the RSI below 50. -Are you interested in learning about the forex basics? Click here for details- Therefore, bears might soon overpower bulls to revisit the 155.01 support level. A break below this support will confirm a continuation of the downtrend as it would form a lower low. Moreover, it would clear the path for USD/JPY to retest the 153.25 support level. On the other hand, a break above the SMA and the 157.01 resistance level would indicate a bullish shift in sentiment. However, the price would have to start making higher highs and lows to confirm a bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/20/usd-jpy-forecast-investors-on-edge-ahead-of-trumps-speech/
2025-01-18 17:51
US core inflation missed forecasts in December. US retail sales increased by a smaller-than-expected figure. Bank of Japan policymakers signaled a willingness to hike interest rates. The USD/JPY weekly forecast indicates growing anticipation for a Bank of Japan rate hike that is supporting the yen. Ups and downs of USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair ended the week lower as the dollar eased on downbeat data, and the yen gained due to a surge in BoJ rate hike expectations. The greenback and Treasury yields eased after data revealed that US core inflation missed forecasts in December. The report raised expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025. Additionally, retail sales increased by a smaller-than-expected figure, pointing to weak consumer spending. -Are you interested in learning about forex tips? Click here for details- Meanwhile, Bank of Japan policymakers signaled a willingness to hike interest rates due to the improving economy and weak yen. Consequently, rate hike bets increased, boosting the yen. Next week’s key events for USD/JPY Next week, market participants will watch the Bank of Japan policy meeting on Friday. The yen has faced significant downward pressure due to the rising dollar and a less dovish outlook for Fed policy. At the same time, the BoJ has remained cautious about rate hikes, citing uncertainty about Trump’s policies. However, recent yen weakness has increased pressure on the central bank to hike rates. As a result, policymakers have shifted their tone to a more hawkish one, boosting rate hike expectations. If policymakers vote to hike rates on Friday, the yen will rally. USD/JPY weekly technical forecast: Trendline support retested On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has paused at its support trendline after breaking below the 22-SMA. The SMA break indicates a bearish shift in sentiment. However, on a larger scale, the price trades in a bullish trend with a clear support trendline. -Are you interested in learning about the forex basics? Click here for details- Therefore, although bears are in the lead in the short term, the price is making higher highs and lows. Bulls might resurface next week to push the price off the support. However, they must make a higher high to confirm a continuation of the bullish trend. However, while the price has made higher highs, the RSI has stalled, failing to enter the overbought region. This could be because the uptrend is a corrective after a strong trend. If this happens, the price will likely break below the trendline to make another impulsive leg. Therefore, it would breach the 150.05 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/18/usd-jpy-weekly-forecast-boj-hike-expectations-lift-yen/
2025-01-18 17:49
Market participants are eagerly awaiting Trump’s inauguration. Trump has proposed a heavy tariff on goods imported from Canada. US inflation data this week revealed soft underlying price pressures. The USD/CAD weekly forecast points north as the Canadian dollar drops ahead of Trump’s inauguration. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The USD/CAD pair had a bullish week as the Canadian dollar weakened amid Trump tariff fears. Meanwhile, the dollar gained despite downbeat data due to the weak loonie. -Are you interested in learning about forex tips? Click here for details- Market participants were eagerly awaiting Trump’s inauguration and his policy changes. Notably, Trump has proposed a heavy tariff on goods imported from Canada, which will likely hurt the local economy. Therefore, the Bank of Canada would be under immense pressure to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, inflation data this week revealed soft underlying price pressures, supporting bets for Fed rate cuts. At the same time, US sales came in below estimates, indicating easing consumer spending. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week, traders will focus on economic reports from Canada, including inflation and retail sales. The inflation report will show the state of price pressures in the country. Recent figures have shown a slowdown that has allowed the Bank of Canada to implement several rate cuts. A downbeat report would increase bets for rate cuts in 2025, weighing on the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Canada in late 2024 shifted from focusing on inflation to growth. The economy was gradually declining amid high interest rates. The retail sales report will show the state of consumer spending, further shaping the outlook for BoC rate cuts. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Bullish momentum targeting 1.4603 On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is bouncing higher after finding support at the 1.4300 key psychological level. The price trades above the 22-SMA, and the RSI is in bullish territory. Moreover, the price has made a series of higher highs and lows, suggesting a solid bullish trend. -Are you interested in learning about the forex basics? Click here for details- However, after breaking above the 1.4300 key level, the price traded in a tight consolidation as the SMA caught up. Meanwhile, the RSI made lower highs, indicating fading bullish momentum, which allowed bears to puncture the SMA line. However, bulls returned with renewed momentum and pushed the price back above the SMA. If bullish momentum remains strong in the coming week, the price will likely retest the 1.4603 key level. This will mean a higher high and a continuation of the bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/18/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-looming-trump-tariffs-boost-dollar/
