2025-01-14 11:34

Risk appetite increased after China announced more stimulus measures. All eyes are now on US inflation figures. The pound remained fragile due to the recent bond market rout. The GBP/USD price analysis shows some relief for the pound as market participants await crucial US inflation data. Nevertheless, the long-term outlook remains clouded as traders worry about UK finances amid turmoil in the bond market. -Are you looking for tips for forex trading? Check out the details- The dollar eased slightly at the start of a new week. Risk appetite increased after China announced more measures to support its weak economy and the yuan. However, dollar bulls remain strong after the recent upbeat jobs report. Market participants expect the Fed to lower borrowing costs by 30-bps this year. This is a drop from the 50-bps expected at the start of the year. All eyes are now on US inflation figures, which will continue shaping the outlook for rate cuts. Economists expect consumer inflation to increase by 0.3%, similar to the previous reading. At the same time, they expect the annual figure to hold at 2.6%. A bigger-than-expected figure will lower the likelihood of a Fed rate cut this year. On the other hand, a downbeat report might bring back bets for two rate cuts this year. However, before the CPI report, traders will focus on wholesale inflation. Elsewhere, the pound remained fragile due to the recent bond market rout. Market participants worry that the yield rally will force the government to adjust fiscal policy, hurting the economy. GBP/USD key events today Core PPI m/m PPI m/m GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bears aim for a new low in the downtrend On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is dropping after retesting the 1.2250 key level. Bears have maintained a solid decline since the price broke below the 1.2400 support level. However, the downtrend paused at the 1.2102 level. Nevertheless, the bearish bias remains strong since the price still trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI in bearish territory. -Are you looking for crypto exchanges? Check our detailed guide- Furthermore, if bears are ready to resume the downtrend, the price will soon break below the 1.2102 level to make a lower low. However, if the level holds firm, GBP/USD will make a double bottom, which could lead to a bullish reversal. The trend will only change when the price breaks above the SMA and the RSI above 50. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/14/gbp-usd-price-analysis-sterling-steady-ahead-of-us-inflation/

2025-01-14 10:27

The People’s Bank of China announced more measures to support its fragile economy. Consumer sentiment in Australia dropped in January. Traders eagerly await the US PPI report. The AUD/USD outlook indicates continued optimism about China’s efforts to support its weak economy, which has boosted the Aussie. Meanwhile, Australia’s decline in consumer sentiment could pressure the RBA to cut rates. On the other hand, market participants are looking forward to US inflation figures. -Are you looking for tips for forex trading? Check out the details- On Monday, the People’s Bank of China announced more measures to support its fragile economy. China has struggled to grow recently, pushing officials to introduce new policies to spur a faster recovery. For instance, the country will encourage companies to borrow more money overseas to improve capital flows. These measures have also boosted the weak yuan. At the same time, the Australian dollar, considered a proxy for the yuan, has soared. Elsewhere, data on Tuesday revealed that consumer sentiment in Australia dropped in January. The sentiment index fell by 0.7%, indicating weaker spending in the near term. A decline in spending creates the right conditions for the Reserve Bank of Australia to start cutting rates in February. Meanwhile, the greenback eased slightly after a strong rally amid a drop in Fed rate cut bets. Traders eagerly await the wholesale and consumer inflation numbers that will guide Fed policy. Upbeat inflation figures might wipe out expectations for any rate cut this year, boosting the dollar. AUD/USD key events today US Core PPI m/m US PPI m/m AUD/USD technical outlook: Stagnant near solid resistance zone On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has rebounded after its recent swing low to retest the 30-SMA resistance. At the same time, the price is retesting the 0.6200 key support turned resistance and the 0.382 Fib retracement level. If bears maintain control, the price will respect this resistance zone and bounce lower to make a new low in the downtrend. In this case, the price would break below the 0.6150 support level. -Are you looking for crypto exchanges? Check our detailed guide- On the other hand, bulls might be ready to take charge. Although the price made a new low, it came after a long consolidation. At the same time, the RSI failed to dip into the oversold region, showing weaker momentum. Therefore, if bulls gain momentum, the price will breach the resistance to revisit the 0.6300 key level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/14/aud-usd-outlook-aussie-rides-high-on-chinas-stimulus-efforts/

2025-01-13 11:29

Japan’s wage gains have shown sustainable growth prospects. US nonfarm payrolls rose by 256,000, beating estimates of 164,000. Traders expect only 27-bps of Fed rate cuts this year. The USD/JPY outlook shows increasing price pressures in Japan that might convince BoJ policymakers to hike rates soon. As a result, the yen gained despite a strong dollar. The greenback soared on Friday after an upbeat jobs report lowered expectations for Fed rate cuts. -Are you looking for tips for forex trading? Check out the details- The yen strengthened on Monday as market participants increased bets for a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike. Policymakers have been monitoring Japan’s wage gains, showing sustainable growth prospects. At the same time, the weak yen has hiked import costs, increasing inflationary pressure. Consequently, conditions for a rate hike are aligning, supporting the yen. High interest rates in Japan will shrink the gap in rates with the US. Furthermore, top Japanese officials closely monitor the yen, which has significantly weakened in recent weeks. More declines might push officials to act and support the currency. On the other hand, the greenback soared on Friday after data revealed an unexpected jump in US jobs in December. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 256,000, beating estimates of 164,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate eased to 4.1%, below forecasts of 4.2%. As a result, traders expect only 27-bps of Fed rate cuts this year. The next major report will show the state of inflation in the US. Another upbeat report could wipe out expectations for rate cuts this year. USD/JPY key events today Traders do not expect any key reports from the US or Japan. Therefore, the pair might keep reacting to recent developments. USD/JPY technical outlook: Bearish RSI divergence On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is dropping after failing to break above the 158.02 resistance level. The price trades below the 30-SMA, showing bears are in the lead. Moreover, the RSI trades below 50, suggesting solid bearish momentum. -Are you looking for crypto exchanges? Check our detailed guide- Bulls have made several attempts to continue the previous uptrend but have failed. They can no longer make solid swings above the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI has made a bearish divergence, indicating fading momentum. Therefore, there is a high chance bears will trigger a trend reversal. However, the price must break below the 156.03 support level and start making lower highs and lows. If this happens, USD/JPY will drop to retest the 153.02 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/13/usd-jpy-outlook-boj-could-hike-rates-amid-rising-inflation/

2025-01-13 09:51

US job growth jumped in December, with the economy adding 256,000 jobs. The US unemployment rate eased to 4.1%. Canada’s economy added 90,900 jobs compared to forecasts of 24,900. The USD/CAD forecast shows a slightly bullish bias as traders balance the upbeat employment reports from Canada and the US. The pair rose on Friday as US job growth beat estimates. However, a surge in Canada’s employment put a lid on further gains. -Are you looking for tips for forex trading? Check out the details- Data on Friday revealed that US job growth jumped in December, with the economy adding 256,000 jobs. This number was much more significant than the forecast of 164,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate eased to 4.1%, compared to estimates of 4.2%. The report indicated a resilient labor market, leading to a decline in Fed rate cut expectations. Given the robust economy, markets are gradually pricing out rate cuts this year. At the same time, Trump’s presidency might further boost demand. Consequently, the dollar soared against most of its peers. However, the Canadian dollar was an outlier since data from Canada also showed a resilient labor market. According to figures, the economy added 90,900 jobs compared to forecasts of 24,900. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 6.7%, missing estimates of 6.9%. The upbeat figures have eased pressure on the Bank of Canada to lower rates, boosting the loonie. USD/CAD key events today Market participants do not expect any high-impact reports today. Therefore, they will keep digesting Friday’s employment figures. USD/CAD technical forecast: Bulls looking at 1.4450 resistance On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is in a holding pattern between the 1.4300 support and the 1.4450 resistance level. The price trades above the 30-SMA within the range, showing bulls are in the lead. At the same time, the RSI trades above 50 in bullish territory. Therefore, there is a high chance USD/CAD will make another attempt at the range resistance. -Are you looking for crypto exchanges? Check our detailed guide- Before the price started consolidating, it was in a bullish trend, trading above the 30-SMA. However, bulls failed to breach the 1.4450 resistance level, and momentum faded. As a result, the price formed a corrective move. If this allowed bulls to recover, USD/CAD will soon breach the range resistance to continue the uptrend. On the other hand, if bears become stronger, the trend might reverse to the downside. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/13/usd-cad-forecast-dollar-reigns-amid-nfp-ripple-effects/

2025-01-11 17:34

The US economy added a bigger-than-expected number of jobs in December. US unemployment fell, indicating a resilient labor market. Core inflation in Australia eased, boosting RBA rate cut bets. The AUD/USD weekly forecast points south amid increasing RBA rate cut bets and lower expectations for Fed rate cuts. Ups and downs of AUD/USD This week, the Aussie collapsed as the dollar soared on upbeat data and RBA rate cut bets jumped. The US economy showed continued resilience, with reports on service sector business activity, jobs and unemployment claims beating forecasts. Moreover, the economy added a bigger-than-expected number of jobs in December, with the unemployment rate dropping. As a result, Fed rate cut bets fell. -Are you looking for tips for forex trading? Check out the details- On the other hand, Australia’s inflation figures last week revealed a slowdown in underlying price pressures. Consequently, rate cut bets for a Feb RBA rate cut increased, weakening the Aussie. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week, traders will scrutinize inflation and retail sales figures from the US. Meanwhile, Australia will release its monthly employment figures. The Fed has forecasted only two rate cuts this year due to a resilient economy. At the same time, inflation has stalled its decline, leading to policymakers losing confidence. If the US releases another upbeat report, markets might lower expectations to just one rate cut this year. On the other hand, a downbeat report will increase rate-cut bets, weighing on the dollar. Meanwhile, market participants have increased bets for an RBA rate cut in February. A downbeat employment report will increase these bets, hurting the Aussie. On the other hand, if employment jumps, rate-cut bets will fall. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bears breach 1.272 Fib extension On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has breached a significant support comprising the 0.6200 support and the 1.272 Fib extension level. The price has maintained a solid downtrend, trading below the 22-SMA resistance. Meanwhile, the RSI has maintained its position in bearish territory. -Are you looking for crypto exchanges? Check our detailed guide- Since the bearish bias is strong, there is a high chance AUD/USD will target the 1.618 Fib extension level next week. The downtrend will continue if the price stays below the 22-SMA and the RSI below 50. On the other hand, if the price fails to hold its position below the 0.6200 level, it might bounce back to retest the SMA or the 0.6400 key level as resistance. A break above would signal a bullish reversal. On the other hand, if bears remain in the lead, the price will bounce lower to continue the downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/11/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-rba-fed-divergence-boosts-sell-off/

2025-01-11 17:30

Business activity in the US services sector improved more than expected. The US economy added 256,000 jobs in December. US unemployment dropped to 4.1%, below estimates of 4.2%. The GBP/USD weekly forecast suggests further weakness as the US dollar picks momentum after robust jobs data. Ups and downs of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair had a bearish week as the dollar rallied amid upbeat US economic data. Figures revealed that business activity in the services sector improved more than expected. Meanwhile, employment numbers were mostly better than expected. -Are you looking for tips for forex trading? Check out the details- Notably, the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday showed an unexpected surge in job growth and a drop in the unemployment rate. The US economy added 256,000 jobs in December, compared to forecasts of 164,000. Meanwhile, unemployment dropped to 4.1%, below estimates of 4.2%. Consequently, Fed rate cut bets plunged, boosting the dollar. Next week’s key events for GBP/USD Next week, market participants will focus on inflation and retail sales data from the US and the UK. At the same time, the UK will release figures on manufacturing production and GDP. The US wholesale and consumer inflation numbers will shape the outlook for future Fed rate cuts. Recent reports have shown that inflation has paused its decline to the 2% target. Another upbeat report will lower expectations for rate cuts, boosting the greenback. Similarly, UK inflation and retail sales will guide the outlook for Bank of England rate cuts. Upbeat reports will lower bets for rate cuts, while downbeat numbers will further hurt the pound. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bears eye new lows below 1.2250 On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has punctured the 1.2250 support level to make a new swing low in the downtrend. The price trades well below the 22-SMA, showing bears are holding the reigns. Meanwhile, the RSI has entered the oversold region, suggesting solid bearish momentum. -Are you looking for automated trading? Check our detailed guide- GBP/USD has maintained a solid downtrend since the price broke below the 22-SMA. In all this time, the RSI has stayed in bearish territory but has failed to dip into the oversold region. This shows that bears still have more room to push the prices lower. Therefore, the break below the 1.2250 support will allow the price to reach lower support levels. Moreover, the trend will only reverse if the RSI shows fading momentum and the price breaks above the 22-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/11/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-surprised-us-nfp-threatens-pound/