2024-11-26 11:14

Trump vowed to impose tariffs on Mexico, China and Canada. Market participants are awaiting Australia’s inflation report due on Wednesday. Traders are monitoring the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes for clues on future Fed moves. The AUD/USD price analysis shows a vulnerable Aussie as Trump’s tariff threats on China weigh on the Yuan. On the other hand, the dollar strengthened as the outlook for the US economy brightened. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- US President-elect Donald Trump vowed to impose tariffs on China, sinking the yuan. China is Australia’s main trading partner. As a result, the Aussie reflects moves in the yuan. Consequently, the tariff threats also weighed on the Australian dollar. High tariffs will reduce demand for Chinese goods in the US, hurting China’s economy. On the other hand, Trump’s tariff vows have brightened the outlook for the US economy. Consumers will buy more local goods, boosting business performance and increasing inflation. Meanwhile, market participants are awaiting Australia’s inflation report due on Wednesday. RBA policymakers have remained hawkish despite weak economic data. The central bank is waiting for a clear downtrend in the economy to signal rate cuts. According to economists, the CPI might increase by 2.5%, higher than the previous reading of 2.1%. A higher-than-expected reading will support the RBA’s hawkish stance. On the other hand, downbeat figures might increase expectations for rate cuts in early 2025. Elsewhere, traders are monitoring the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes for clues on future Fed moves. Policymakers voted to lower borrowing costs by 25-bps soon after Trump won the election. However, since then, most have assumed a cautious tone due to the likelihood of high inflation under Trump’s administration. Hawkish minutes might further lower expectations for a December Fed rate cut. AUD/USD key events today US CB consumer confidence FOMC meeting minutes AUD/USD technical price analysis: Bearish breakout looms despite a pause On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is consolidating between the 0.6550 resistance and the 0.6450 support. Within this range, bears are in the lead since the price trades below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI sits in bearish territory below 50. Furthermore, the price is making lower highs and lows on a larger scale, indicating a downtrend. Consequently, there is a high chance the price will break out of the range. A break below 0.6450 will confirm a continuation of the previous downtrend, as the price would make a lower low. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/26/aud-usd-price-analysis-trumps-tariff-threats-weaken-aud/

2024-11-26 09:11

Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on all goods from Canada. The dollar surged as Trump’s tariffs will help boost local businesses. Traders are keeping an eye on the looming FOMC meeting minutes. The USD/CAD outlook indicates a sharp bullish turn as the dollar gains and the loonie collapses after Trump’s tariff vows. At the same time, market participants were awaiting more clues on Fed rate cuts from the FOMC policy meeting minutes. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The dollar rallied on Tuesday after Trump said he would impose tariffs on goods from China, Mexico, and Canada. He plans to impose a 25% tariff on all goods from Canada. The news was a big blow for the Canadian dollar since Canada exports nearly 75% of its goods to the US. Consequently, tariffs will hurt Canada’s economy, weighing on the local currency. Initially, the Canadian dollar had strengthened after upbeat data last week lowered the likelihood of a massive Bank of Canada rate cut in December. However, with Trump as the US president, there might be a significant slowdown in the economy in the near future. Therefore, the BoC might be forced to lower rates to spur growth. On the other hand, the dollar surged on the tariff announcement, which will help boost local businesses. Trump’s goal is to boost economic growth in the US, making it greater than other major economies, especially China. Therefore, his policies are bullish for growth and the greenback. Moreover, increased economic demand will likely cause a spike in inflation that will force the Federal Reserve to pause its rate cuts. Meanwhile, traders are keeping an eye on the looming FOMC meeting minutes. The November Fed meeting came right after Trump’s win. Therefore, markets will wait to see whether this led to a more cautious tone and a gradual outlook for rate cuts. USD/CAD key events today US CB consumer confidence FOMC meeting minutes USD/CAD technical outlook: Uptrend resumes after bears fail to breach 1.3951 On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has made a strong bullish candle that has broken above the 1.4100 resistance to make a new high. Initially, bears had taken charge by breaking below the 30-SMA and the bullish trendline. However, despite several attempts, the price could not breach the 1.3951 support level. Consequently, bulls resurfaced and broke above the SMA. Furthermore, they broke above the previous high at 1.4100 to make a higher high. This signaled a continuation of the bullish trend that might soon reach the 1.4200 key psychological level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/26/usd-cad-outlook-dollar-soars-while-loonie-slides-on-tariff-vows/

2024-11-25 10:54

The dollar started the week strong as markets reacted to Trump’s choice for Treasury Secretary. Canada’s inflation increased by 0.4%, above estimates of 0.3%. Retail sales in Canada jumped by 0.4% in September. The USD/CAD outlook shows a rebound in the pair as the dollar rallies after Trump chose a new Treasury Secretary. However, the pair remained near lows marked last week when the Canadian dollar soared after upbeat economic data. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The dollar started the week strong as markets reacted to Trump’s choice for Treasury Secretary. Scott Bessent has been a supporter of Trump’s tariff policy proposals. Moreover, he has openly supported a stronger dollar, making his nomination bullish for the currency. Markets are paying close attention to developments in the US after Trump’s win. The president-elect will take office in January and might start pushing for policy changes. Experts have noted that the Republican Party holds most seats in both houses of Congress, making it easy for Trump to make policy changes. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar gave up some of last week’s gains but remained near its highs. The loonie had a strong week where economic data lowered the likelihood of another super-sized rate cut in December. The Bank of Canada lowered borrowing costs by 50-bps in October as data showed slower economic growth. Moreover, policymakers signaled more rate cuts in the future, prompting markets to price another massive move. However, data last week revealed that inflation increased by 0.4%, above estimates of 0.3%. At the same time, retail sales jumped by 0.4% in September, with the core figure increasing by 0.9%. Moreover, estimates showed a 0.7% increase in October. As a result, markets lowered the likelihood of another 50-bps rate cut in December. USD/CAD key events today The pair might start the week slowly, as traders do not expect key reports from Canada or the US. USD/CAD technical outlook: Bears gear up for a break below 1.3951 On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has paused near the 1.3951 support level. Nevertheless, the bias is bearish since it trades below the 30-SMA, with the RSI in bearish territory. The trend recently reversed when the price paused at the 1.4100 resistance level. Bears confirmed a reversal when they pushed below the 30-SMA and the bullish trendline. However, they must now make lower highs and lows to continue the downtrend. Therefore, USD/CAD might break below 1.3951 to retest the 1.3850 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/25/usd-cad-outlook-us-treasury-sec-nomination-boosts-dollar/

2024-11-25 09:41

Dollar bulls cheered Trump’s pick for US Treasury Secretary. Market participants are awaiting the FOMC meeting minutes. Data on Friday revealed a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the UK economy. The GBP/USD forecast suggests further dollar strength after Trump picked Scott Bassent as the next US Treasury Secretary. Meanwhile, due to downbeat economic data, the pound remained fragile after reaching a six-month low on Friday. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The greenback regained strength on Monday as bulls cheered Trump’s pick for US Treasury Secretary. After Trump’s win, Scott made remarks supporting a stronger dollar and the proposed import tariffs. Therefore, traders believe he will be bullish for the dollar. Meanwhile, market participants are awaiting more clues for future Fed moves. On Tuesday, the US will release the FOMC meeting minutes, which might shed more light on the December meeting. The meeting came soon after Trump won the election and shifted the outlook for the US economy. Consequently, policymakers might have assumed a more cautious tone, leading to a decline in Fed rate cut expectations. Currently, markets are pricing a 52% chance of a cut in December. Hawkish minutes might lower this likelihood below 50%, further boosting the dollar. Meanwhile, the pound was frail after data on Friday revealed a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the UK economy. Notably, retail sales fell by 0.7%, more than the expected 0.3% decline, showing weak consumer spending. Meanwhile, PMI data showed an unexpected decline in business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors. The manufacturing PMI came in at 48.6, compared to estimates of 50.0. The services PMI was 50.0, below forecasts of 51.9. The downbeat economic data might pressure the Bank of England to cut interest rates. GBP/USD key events today Market participants do not expect any key reports from the UK or the US today. Therefore, they will continue to absorb US political developments. GBP/USD technical forecast: Bearish momentum surges after 30-SMA retest On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is collapsing after retesting the 30-SMA resistance. At the same time, the RSI is falling far below the 50 mark, indicating stronger bearish momentum. Initially, the downtrend paused at the 1.2500 support level, where the RSI made a bullish divergence. The price gapped up as it revisited the 1.2600 resistance and the SMA. After that, bears took back control with a solid candle. Given the strong bearish bias, the price might soon retest the 1.2500 support level and likely break below. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/25/gbp-usd-forecast-trumps-treasury-choice-boosts-dollar/

2024-11-23 18:07

The dollar climbed earlier in the week when tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated. The Trump trade paused as traders awaited new developments. The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its hawkish tone. The AUD/USD weekly forecast shows a slight rebound as the RBA remains hawkish, but the pair still has downside potential. Ups and downs of AUD/USD The Aussie rebounded this week as the dollar paused its Trump rally and the RBA maintained a hawkish. The greenback paused this week after a strong rally due to Trump’s win. However, it climbed earlier in the week when tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated. Meanwhile, the Trump trade paused as traders awaited new developments. US data showed an unexpected decline in jobless claims, lowering the likelihood of a December Fed rate cut. Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its hawkish tone, stating there was no hurry to lower rates as they were not as high as in other major economies. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week, investors will focus on reports from the US, including the Fed minutes, GDP, and durable goods orders. The FOMC meeting minutes will have a comprehensive report of the last policy meeting, which might contain clues on what policymakers intend to do in the future. The meeting came right after Trump won the US presidential election, changing the outlook for US economic growth and inflation. Consequently, market participants will wait to see if this changed policymakers” tone. Meanwhile, the GDP report will show the health of the economy. Economists expect a 2.8% increase after a similar reading last month. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: RSI divergence prompts pullback On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is in a downtrend, consistently making lower highs and lows. Moreover, the price trades below the 22-SMA with the RSI under 50, supporting a bearish bias. The downtrend has paused at the 0.6450 critical level after breaking below the 0.6550 support. The pause has allowed bulls to revisit the recently broken support zone. The pullback might continue to the 22-SMA in the coming week before bears resume the downtrend. To confirm a continuation of the downtrend, the price must break below 0.6450 to make a new low. However, the RSI has made a slight bullish divergence that could signal a reversal. Nevertheless, bulls must break above the SMA to confirm a reversal. Otherwise, the downtrend will continue. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/23/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-hawkish-rba-fuels-rebound/

2024-11-23 18:02

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated this week as the two countries exchanged missiles. Traders worried about Trump’s tariff proposals. Eurozone business activity data revealed a sharp economic slowdown. The EUR/USD weekly forecast points South as traders fear a sharp decline in the Eurozone economy and looming ECB rate cuts. Ups and downs of EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair had a bearish week amid geopolitical and trade tensions and downbeat Eurozone economic data. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated this week as the two countries exchanged missiles. Moreover, Russia threatened the use of nuclear power, raising fears of increasing tensions that would hurt the Eurozone economy. As a result, the euro plunged. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- At the same time, traders worried about Trump’s tariff proposals that could reduce demand for European cars. Consequently, the economy might deteriorate, weighing on the euro. Finally, markets raised chances of a December ECB rate cut after Eurozone business activity data revealed a sharp economic slowdown. Next week’s key events for EUR/USD Next week, the US will release reports, including the Fed minutes, GDP, and durable goods orders. The core durable goods orders and the GDP reports will show the health of the US economy. Upbeat numbers will show a resilient economy, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in December. On the other hand, if the numbers come in poorer than expected, market participants will add on to bets for a December Fed rate cut. Meanwhile, the FOMC meeting minutes will contain clues on future Fed policy moves. Since the meeting came after Trump won the US election, policymakers may have become more cautious. A cautious tone might lower the likelihood of another rate cut this year. EUR/USD weekly technical forecast: Bearish sentiment grows below 1.0500 On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has broken below the 1.0500 support level after a steep decline from the 22-SMA resistance. The price reversed to the downside after making a double top and breaking below the SMA. Bulls attempted to take control by breaking above the SMA. However, the price made a bearish engulfing candle that led to a rapid decline. Meanwhile, the RSI shows robust bearish momentum, meaning the downtrend will likely continue next week. Therefore, bears might target the 1.0301 critical support level. The trend will only reverse when the price breaks above the 22-SMA resistance and the RSI starts trading above 50. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/23/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-eurozone-economic-woes-deepen/