2025-07-15 09:08

The EUR/USD outlook points to improved sentiment in the Eurozone. Trump announced that he would impose a 30% tariff on Eurozone goods. Traders are keeping an eye on the US CPI report. The EUR/USD outlook points to improved sentiment in the Eurozone after Trump said he was willing to negotiate a trade deal. As a result, the euro recovered after dropping on fears of a 30% reciprocal tariff on the EU. Meanwhile, market participants are anticipating the US CPI report for clues on Fed rate cuts. Over the weekend, Trump announced that he would impose a 30% tariff on Eurozone goods come August 1st. The news dashed hopes of a looming trade deal between the two partners, leading to a drop in the euro. Initially, market participants were hopeful of a deal since Trump failed to send letters to the EU and Mexico. However, that changed. Meanwhile, the EU has accused the US of resisting efforts to reach an agreement. As a result, top officials have said they will retaliate if tariffs take effect in August. This has raised tensions between the trade partners. However, market participants are still hoping for a deal before August. Trump has welcomed EU officials to continue with negotiations. Meanwhile, traders are keeping an eye on the US CPI report, due later in the day. Hotter-than-expected figures will confirm the impact of Trump’s tariffs on price pressure, easing Fed rate cut bets. EUR/USD key events today US core CPI m/m US CPI m/m US CPI y/y EUR/USD technical outlook: Trapped between 30-SMA & support trendline On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has paused near its bullish trendline, which has acted as a strong support many times before. Despite a bounce, the price still trades below the 30-SMA, with the RSI under 50, supporting a bearish bias. Since bears took over at the previous peak, the price has traded below the SMA, respecting it as resistance. Therefore, this may happen again. However, this time the price is caught between the SMA and the trendline. If bears are unable to break below the trendline, the price will likely break above the 30-SMA. Such a move would signal a shift in sentiment, allowing bulls to retest the 1.1800 key resistance level. On the other hand, if the price breaks below the trendline and the 0.5 Fib retracement, it will signal a likely reversal, allowing bears to target the 1.1450 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/15/eur-usd-outlook-euro-finds-support-on-renewed-us-eu-trade/

2025-07-14 13:19

The USD/CAD outlook shows robust strength in Canada’s labor market. Sentiment has remained poor since Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canada. Economists believe US inflation accelerated in June due to Trump’s tariffs. The USD/CAD outlook shows robust strength in Canada’s labor market, supporting the loonie as a result. However, a potential 35% tariff on the country’s exports to the US have put a lid on gains. Meanwhile, market participants are looking forward to the pivotal US consumer inflation report due this week. Data on Friday revealed that Canada’s economy added a robust 83,100 jobs. It was well above the forecast of only 900 new jobs. At the same time, the unemployment rate eased to 6.9%, missing estimates of 7.1%. The data revealed a rebound in the labor sectors, a sign that the Bank of Canada had done a good job lowering interest rates. Moreover, it allows the central bank to continue its pause for a bit longer. However, sentiment has remained poor since Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canada. The likelihood of higher levies would lower demand for the country’s exports and hurt growth. Therefore, it would undo what the Bank of Canada has done, hurting the Canadian dollar. Meanwhile, market participants are awaiting the US inflation report. Economists believe price pressures accelerated in June due to Trump’s tariffs. This could force the Fed to maintain its cautious tone on rate cuts. USD/CAD key events today Traders are not anticipating any key releases from the US or Canada. Therefore, they will watch US tariff developments. USD/CAD technical outlook: Bears challenge the 30-SMA support On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is on the verge of breaking below the 30-SMA after pausing near a solid resistance zone. Initially, bulls had taken the lead by pushing the price above the 30-SMA. However, they did not go very far as the price paused under the 0.618 Fib retracement and the 1.3700 key resistance level. A wick above the resistance zone shows a failed attempt to break above. Currently, bears are challenging the 30-SMA support. A break below would signal a shift in sentiment. At the same time, it would allow USD/CAD to return to the 1.3550 support level. However, if bulls regain momentum, the price might break above the resistance zone. In such a case, USD/CAD would climb to retest the 1.3800 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/14/usd-cad-outlook-strong-jobs-offset-by-tariff-worries/

2025-07-14 09:09

The GBP/USD forecast shows a continuing decline after Friday’s poor UK GDP data. Trump announced a 30% tariff on the Eurozone and Mexico. This week, the US CPI report will shape the outlook for rate cuts. The GBP/USD forecast shows a continuing decline after the UK released downbeat GDP data in the previous session. At the same time, the dollar edged higher on Monday after Trump announced new tariffs over the weekend. Meanwhile, market participants are gearing up for the US CPI report this week. The pound dropped on Friday after data revealed that the UK economy contracted by 0.1%. Meanwhile, economists had forecasted a 0.1% expansion. This was the second contraction in a row, raising concerns about the state of the economy. At the same time, it adds pressure on the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs and spur economic growth. Elsewhere, Trump announced a 30% tariff on the US’s major trading partners on Saturday. The Eurozone and Mexico will suffer this high levy if there is no trade deal before the August 1 deadline. The US president has already threatened higher tariffs for other countries like Brazil, Canada, Japan, and South Korea. However, his recent threats have had little impact on financial markets. At the same time, Trump continued his attacks on Fed Chair Powell, asking him to step down if he cannot lower borrowing costs. This week, the US CPI report will shape the outlook for rate cuts. A downbeat report would increase the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September. GBP/USD key events today Market participants do not expect any key economic releases from the UK or the US. Therefore, they will keep digesting Friday’s releases. GBP/USD technical forecast: Bears eye the 1.3400 support On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has made new lows after breaking below a solid resistance zone. Initially, bears had paused above the 1.3601 key level and the 0.5 Fib retracement level. The price consolidated until the 30-SMA caught up. Eventually, bears gained enough momentum to breach the support zone. After the break, the price has dropped in a sharp move below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI has dipped into the oversold region, suggesting solid bearish momentum. Given the strong bearish bias, the price might soon reach the 1.3400 support level. However, there might be a pause before the downtrend continues. A break below the 1.3400 level would solidify the bearish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/14/gbp-usd-forecast-sterling-extends-losses-after-soft-gdp-data/

2025-07-12 17:18

The GBP/USD weekly forecast indicates weaker growth in the UK. Treasury yields soared after Trump announced higher tariffs on several countries. Next week, the US will release crucial inflation and retail sales figures. The GBP/USD weekly forecast indicates weaker growth in the UK, which has pushed up BoE rate cut expectations. Ups and downs of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair had a bearish week as the dollar gained with US Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the pound dropped after downbeat UK GDP figures. Treasury yields soared after Trump announced higher tariffs on several countries, including Canada, Brazil, and Japan. If these tariffs take effect, they will hike import prices and drive inflation higher. This would force the Fed to maintain high borrowing costs. Elsewhere, data on Friday revealed that the UK economy contracted by 0.1% compared to the forecast of a 0.1% expansion. The report increased pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates. Next week’s key events for GBP/USD Next week, the US will release crucial inflation and retail sales figures. Meanwhile, the UK will release inflation and employment numbers. The US inflation figures will show whether Trump’s tariffs have increased price pressures. If so, the Fed might remain cautious about rate cuts. However, if inflation is softer than expected, it will solidify rate cut expectations. On the other hand, the UK inflation numbers will shape the outlook for Bank of England rate cuts. Traders will also watch to see the state of the UK labor market. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bears break below SMA after RSI divergence On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken below the 22-SMA after showing weakness in the rally. The break indicates a bearish shift in sentiment. At the same time, the RSI has crossed below 50, showing that bearish momentum is stronger. Previously, the price was trading in a solid bullish rally, making higher highs and lows. However, the price started puncturing the SMA, a sign that bears were gradually getting stronger. At the same time, while the price made higher highs, the RSI made lower ones. This resulted in a bearish divergence, signalling weaker momentum. Consequently, bears made a strong break below the SMA. However, to confirm a new trend, the price must maintain its position below the 22-SMA. Additionally, it must start making lower highs and lows. That means breaking below the 1.3400 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/12/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-uk-growth-fears-ignite-cut-odds/

2025-07-12 17:13

The USD/CAD weekly forecast shows renewed tariff concerns. Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian goods. Canada released a robust employment report. The USD/CAD weekly forecast shows renewed tariff concerns after Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The USD/CAD pair had a bullish week as the Canadian dollar collapsed after Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian goods. At the same time, the dollar rebounded as Trump renewed his tariff campaign. However, there was some downward pressure on the dollar after FOMC minutes showed a higher chance of a rate cut later this year. Meanwhile, Canada released a robust employment report. Job growth was stronger than expected, and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.9%. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week, market participants will pay attention to inflation and retail sales figures from the US. Meanwhile, Canada will release data on inflation, shaping the outlook for Bank of Canada rate cuts. The US inflation report will show whether price pressures are still on a downtrend. If so, it will give the Fed more confidence to lower borrowing costs later in the year. On the other hand, if inflation is higher than expected, it could raise concerns about the impact of tariffs on price pressures. Such an outcome would lower rate cut expectations, boosting the dollar. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: RSI divergence triggers weak trendline break On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has made a weak break above the 22-SMA and its resistance trendline. The price trades slightly above the 30-SMA, and the RSI is above 50, suggesting a bullish bias. For a long time, the price has maintained a bearish trend, making lower highs and lows. However, the decline slowed at the 1.3550 support, where the price made a double bottom. Meanwhile, the RSI made a bullish divergence, indicating weaker bearish momentum. This allowed bulls to challenge the resistance zone comprising the 22-SMA and the trendline. The price broke above. However, the break was weak as bulls have made small-bodied candles. Next week, bulls will have to show stronger momentum to confirm the break. If this happens, it will confirm a shift in sentiment. On the other hand, if they fail to sustain a move above the trendline, the price will drop to retest the 1.3550 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/12/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-trump-tariffs-rekindle-trade-fears/

2025-07-11 08:10

The EUR/USD price analysis shows a lower likelihood of a US-Eurozone trade deal. Trump said he would send a letter to the EU as soon as Friday. Tariffs will hurt demand for goods from the Eurozone. The EUR/USD price analysis shows a lower likelihood of a trade deal between the US and the Eurozone. Trump said he might send a letter to the bloc notifying it of higher tariffs by Friday. Meanwhile, the US president announced higher tariffs on other countries, such as Canada. The move boosted the dollar against most of its peers. The US president got more aggressive on tariffs on Thursday. He announced that more countries will start paying higher tariffs on August 1. These include Canada, which has a 35% levy on its goods. Although the Eurozone survived again, it was clear that Trump’s tone had changed. Initially, market participants were hopeful of a trade deal between the US and the European Union. Talks have gone on for some time. However, Trump said he would send a letter to the EU as soon as Friday, notifying it of higher tariffs. The move will likely plunge the euro. These tariffs will hurt demand for goods from the Eurozone and weigh on the economy. At the same time, if the EU responds, it could ignite a trade war with the US, with lasting effects. EUR/USD key events today Market participants do not expect any key economic releases from the US or the Eurozone. Therefore, all focus will remain on tariff developments. EUR/USD technical price analysis: Bears approach a solid support trendline On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has pulled back from its highs near the 1.1800 key level. The pullback is starting to resemble a downtrend, as the price is respecting the 30-SMA as resistance and is forming lower highs and lows. However, to confirm a new downtrend, it must also break below its long-standing bullish trendline. The EUR/USD has maintained a bullish trend on a larger scale, respecting a clear support trendline. However, the price has also broken through the 30-SMA freely. A break below this trendline would be a significant milestone. It would indicate a shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish. It would also allow the price to retest lower support levels, such as 1.1600 and 1.1450. However, if the trendline holds firm, bulls will return to push the price above the SMA and retest the 1.1800 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/11/eur-usd-price-analysis-hopes-fade-for-us-eu-trade-deal/