2024-11-30 18:42

The US economy expanded by 2.8% as expected. The US core PCE price index increased by 0.3%, in line with expectations. Optimism over Trump’s win and policy changes faded. The GBP/USD weekly forecast suggests a rebound in the pound as the fading Trum trade puts downward pressure on the greenback. Ups and downs of GBP/USD The pound had its strongest week since September as the dollar eased from its peak with the fading Trump trade. Data during the week showed that the US economy expanded by 2.8% as expected. Meanwhile, the core PCE price index increased by 0.3%, in line with expectations. Consequently, market participants were more confident that the Fed would cut rates in December. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, optimism over Trump’s win and policy changes faded, leading to a decline in the dollar and Treasury yields. Markets will now wait to see if Trump will pass his policy proposals in the coming year Next week’s key events for GBP/USD Next week, the UK will release figures on business activity in the manufacturing sector. Flash figures recently showed a slowdown in the economy, pushing market participants to increase the likelihood of a more aggressive Bank of England rate cut cycle. Meanwhile, US reports will include the manufacturing PMI and nonfarm payrolls report. Recent flash PMI numbers robust business activity in November. Therefore, there is a chance this trend will continue, lowering the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December. Meanwhile, the nonfarm payrolls report will show the state of the labor market. If job growth remains slow like last month, it will increase expectations for a rate cut in December. On the other hand, if job growth jumps, the Fed might end the year with a pause. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: 1.2500 support prompts pullback On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has rebounded to retest the 22-SMA resistance after finding support at the 1.2500 level. The rebound has also allowed the price to retest the 1.2750 resistance level. Therefore, there is a strong barrier for bulls which might see the price bouncing lower. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- If bears return at the 22-SMA, they will aim to make a new low below the 1.2500, continuing the downtrend. On the other hand, there is a slight chance that bulls will break above the SMA next week. Such an outcome would signal a reversal and allow the price to revisit the 1.3007 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/30/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-sterling-rises-as-trump-trade-fades/

2024-11-30 18:36

The yen rallied on a higher likelihood of a Bank of Japan rate hike in December. Core inflation in Tokyo increased more than expected. US inflation figures came in line with expectations. The USD/JPY weekly forecast supports further downside for the pair as the yen finds relief due to the increasing bets for a BoJ rate hike. Ups and downs of USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair had a bearish week as the yen rallied on a higher likelihood of a Bank of Japan rate hike in December. At the same time, the dollar eased as market focus shifted to the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data during the week revealed that core inflation in Tokyo increased more than expected. As a result, traders were pricing a higher chance that BoJ policymakers will hike rates by 25-bps in December. At the same time, US inflation figures came in line with expectations, solidifying bets for a December rate cut. Next week’s key events for USD/JPY Next week, traders will focus on economic reports from the US, including the manufacturing PMI and monthly employment figures. The PMI report will show the level of business activity in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the employment report will show the state of the labor market. In the previous month, job growth slowed significantly to 12,000 raising fears of deterioration. Another downbeat month will solidify bets for a December rate cut. USD/JPY weekly technical forecast: Bears face hurdle at 150.02 On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has reversed to the downside after finding solid resistance at the 156.06 level. Bears resurfaced at this resistance with a bearish engulfing candle that led to a break below the 22-SMA. At the same time, the RSI broke below the 50 level and entered into bearish territory. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, the price must now start making lower highs and lows to confirm a new downtrend. At the moment, bears are facing strong support from the 150.02 level and the 0.382 Fib retracement level. A break below this support zone will allow USD/JPY to set its sights on lower support levels including 145.06 and the 0.618 Fib. Meanwhile, if the price breaks back above the SMA, it might revisit the 156.06 resistance. A break above would confirm a continuation of the previous bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/30/usd-jpy-weekly-forecast-boj-rate-hike-odds-boost-yen/

2024-11-29 11:55

The dollar ended the week down as US markets remained closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. ECB’s Fracois Villeroy said the central bank should implement a bigger rate cut. Data on Thursday showed a 0.2% decline in price pressures in Germany. The EUR/USD price analysis indicates continued euro strength as the dollar eases due to an increasing chance of a Fed rate cut in December. Nevertheless, the euro is heading for a bearish month, having lost 2.8% of its value mainly due to Trump’s win. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The dollar ended the week down as US markets remained closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, keeping trading thin. Moreover, US inflation figures on Wednesday revealed an expected increase, solidifying bets for a December Fed rate cut. However, market participants are still waiting for more data before the meeting to gauge whether policymakers will vote to lower borrowing costs. The next major economic report will be the nonfarm payrolls, due next week. Meanwhile, the euro soared to a one-week high after hawkish ECB remarks on Wednesday. Isabel Schnabel said the central bank should consider a gradual pace for rate cuts. However, on Thursday, ECB’s Fracois Villeroy said the central bank should implement a bigger rate cut at next month’s meeting. Nevertheless, the euro remained steady due to dollar’s weakness. The Eurozone economy has deteriorated faster than most major economies, putting pressure on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates. At the same time, inflation has eased, with data on Thursday showing a 0.2% decline in price pressures in Germany. Increasing rate cut bets and Trump’s tariff threats have weighed on the euro in November. The currency has lost nearly 2.8% of its value. If these factors remain in play, the downtrend will continue next month. EUR/USD key events today There won’t be any key economic reports from the Eurozone or the US today. EUR/USD technical price analysis: Bulls losing enthusiasm On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has maintained its position above the 30-SMA, indicating a bullish bias. At the same time, the RSI trades above 50, in bullish territory. However, price action shows that bulls are struggling to detach from the SMA and the 1.0500 key level. Therefore, EUR/USD might consolidate at this level before either climbing towards the 1.0700 resistance or breaking below 1.0500. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/29/eur-usd-price-analysis-fed-rate-cut-odds-weigh-on-dollar/

2024-11-29 09:04

Data revealed that Tokyo’s core CPI increased by 2.2% in November. Market participants are pricing a 57% chance of a BoJ rate hike in December. The dollar was frail on Friday amid the Thanksgiving holiday. The USD/JPY outlook shows the yen nears a six-week high after hotter-than-expected Tokyo inflation figures. At the same time, the dollar remained fragile with the ongoing Thanksgiving holiday. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The yen rallied on Friday and was heading for a 3% gain this week as markets raised the likelihood of a Bank of Japan rate hike in December. Data revealed that Tokyo’s core CPI increased by 2.2% in November, above forecasts of 2.1%. Moreover, it was a big increase from the previous month when inflation rose by 1.8%. The surge in price pressures brightened the outlook for the yen as the BoJ will be more willing to hike interest rates. Consequently, market participants are pricing a 57% chance of a rate hike in December. The yen has suffered since Trump won the US election. Initially, Japan’s currency had recovered at the prospect of an aggressive Fed rate cutting cycle. However, that outlook has shifted significantly, with markets now pricing a gradual pace next year. Therefore, there is more pressure on the Bank of Japan to do something to support its currency. On the other hand, the dollar was frail on Friday amid the Thanksgiving holiday. At the same time, traders are more convinced the Fed will cut rates in December after inflation figures on Wednesday came in line with expectations. The next major report will show the state of the labor market, further shaping the outlook for Fed rate cuts. USD/JPY key events today Market participants do not expect any key reports from Japan or the US. Therefore, traders will keep absorbing Japan’s inflation figures. USD/JPY technical outlook: 150.02 support looks vulnerable On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has dipped below the 150.02 support before pulling back above the level. The price trades well below the 30-SMA, with the RSI in the oversold region, indicating a strong bearish bias. Bears made a sharp decline after the price retested the 151.74 level as resistance. They are now facing the 150.02 support level. A break below this level will continue the downtrend with a new low. However, the price might pull back to retest the 30-SMA before making new lows. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/29/usd-jpy-outlook-tokyo-inflation-bolsters-yen-to-6-week-high/

2024-11-28 10:50

ECB’s Isabel Schnabel said on Wednesday that the central bank should cut rates gradually. Market participants are anticipating the German inflation report. US inflation increased by 0.3%. The EUR/USD outlook shows a slight pullback following a sharp bullish turn after hawkish European Central Bank remarks boosted the euro. However, trading remained thin as the US observed the Thanksgiving holiday. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- ECB’s Isabel Schnabel said on Wednesday that the central bank should cut rates gradually and not aggressively. According to her, lowering borrowing costs to spur economic growth will not solve the Eurozone’s deep structural issues. Moreover, Isabel added that she did not see a recession in the future, giving the central bank enough room to hold rates at restrictive levels. Meanwhile, market participants are anticipating the German inflation report, which will give more clues on ECB rate cuts. Markets expect policymakers to cut rates at the next few meetings in order to support the fragile economy. On the other hand, the greenback remained frail after economic data in the previous session solidified bets for a December Fed rate cut. The core PCE inflation report revealed that inflation increased by 0.3%, meeting forecasts. Meanwhile, the US economy expanded by 2.8% as expected. A separate report showed that initial jobless claims eased slightly from 215,000 to 213,000. The dollar had initially rallied after Trump promised to impose tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. Market participants are looking forward to Trump’s new administration, which will take office in January. The looming policy changes threaten to shift the outlook for economic growth, inflation, and monetary policy. While these changes will likely support the dollar, they might hurt the Eurozone economy and the euro. EUR/USD key events today German Prelim CPI m/m EUR/USD technical outlook: Bulls take control above 1.0500 key level On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has broken above the 1.0500 key level and the 30-SMA, showing a bullish reversal. At the same time, the RSI now trades above 50, indicating strong bullish momentum. After consolidating below the SMA, the price has finally broken above with strong candles. However, it is currently pulling back to retest the 30-SMA and the 1.0500 level as support. If bulls remain in the lead, the price will bounce high and aim for the 1.0700 resistance level. Otherwise, it will break back below the SMA to target the 1.0301 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/28/eur-usd-outlook-ecb-led-rally-loses-momentum/

2024-11-28 09:15

Trading was thin on Thursday as the US observed the Thanksgiving holiday. The core PCE price index increased by 0.3%, in line with expectations. The US economy expanded by 2.8% as expected. The USD/CAD forecast indicates a rebound in the Canadian dollar stemming from the easing US dollar and slight gains in crude oil prices. However, the uptrend remains intact as traders anticipate Trump’s tariffs to boost the US economy. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Trading was thin on Thursday as the US observed the Thanksgiving holiday. However, in the previous session, the Canadian dollar recovered amid speculation that Canada could avoid the full impact of Trump’s tariffs through negotiations. The likelihood of a 25% tariff on Canadian goods weighed on the loonie since Canada exports nearly 75% of its goods to the US. Tariffs would reduce demand for these goods and hurt the economy. However, experts believe Trump might be ready to negotiate better trading terms. Meanwhile, the greenback fell on Wednesday as Treasury yields eased after the US inflation report. The core PCE price index increased by 0.3%, in line with expectations. As a result, markets were more confident that the Fed would implement another rate cut in December. If inflation is behaving exactly as expected, policymakers will be confident enough to vote for a 25-bps rate cut next month. A separate report revealed that the US economy expanded by 2.8% as expected. Moreover, unemployment claims came in slightly lower than expected at 213,000. A rate cut in December might weaken the dollar. However, the long-term outlook remains bright as markets expect the Trump administration to increase economic growth and inflation. USD/CAD key events today Market participants do not expect any key reports from the US or Canada. Moreover, the pair might have a slow day due to the US Thanksgiving holiday. USD/CAD technical forecast: Growing bearish momentum On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is pulling back after failing to breach the 1.4100 resistance level. Nevertheless, the price still trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI over 50, supporting a bullish bias. From the price action on the chart, it is clear that bears are getting stronger. At the same time, while the price has made higher highs, the RSI has made lower ones. Consequently, there is a bearish divergence that could signal a looming reversal. However, to confirm this, bears must break below the 1.3951 support and the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/28/usd-cad-forecast-tariff-negotiation-hopes-ease-dollar/