2024-10-23 08:08

UK pay growth stagnated in the three months to September. Market participants will pay attention to a speech by BoE governor Andrew Bailey. The looming US election is keeping market participants on edge. The GBP/USD price analysis shows bears regaining enthusiasm amid signs that the UK labor market is cooling. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened as traders priced a more gradual easing cycle for the Fed. However, there was caution ahead of the US presidential election. –Are you interested to learn more about Australian forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- UK pay growth in the three months to September stagnated, with firms expecting more cooling in wages in the coming year. Notably, pay growth held steady at 4.0%. Cooling labor market conditions will pressure the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs, weighing on the pound. Meanwhile, market participants will pay attention to a speech by BoE governor Andrew Bailey later in the day. Furthermore, the UK will release PMI data this week that might affect the outlook for BoE rate cuts. Elsewhere, traders are more convinced that the Federal Reserve will stick to a gradual pace for rate cuts. Recent data on employment and sales has shown robust demand in the US economy. Therefore, there is no longer an urgency to lower borrowing costs. At the same time, inflation jumped in September, leading to a more cautious stance by most policymakers. Notably, some have projected only one more rate cut this year. Investors will watch the upcoming PMI figures, showing the economy’s health. More upbeat reports might lower the likelihood of a rate cut in November, boosting the greenback. Meanwhile, the looming US election is keeping market participants on edge. The tight race has increased uncertainty over the outcome, pushing traders to buy the safe-haven dollar. GBP/USD key events today BOE Gov Bailey Speaks GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bears aim for 1.2900 support On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is on the verge of breaking below the 1.2960 support. Moreover, the price recently punctured this level to make a lower low. Bears are firmly in the lead, with the price below the 30-SMA and the RSI below 50. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- However, price action shows that the downtrend has slowed down. Bears are no longer making significant swings below the 30-SMA, showing weakness. Still, if the downtrend continues, GBP/USD will soon reach the 1.2900 level. The bias will only shift when the price starts trading above the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/23/gbp-usd-price-analysis-rally-fades-under-1-30-amid-slow-jobs/

2024-10-22 11:06

The dollar traded near an over 2-month high against its peers. Traders price an 89% chance of a 25-bps Fed rate cut in November. Economists expect the next BoJ rate hike in March next year. The USD/JPY price analysis shows that the bets for a Trump win are rising, boosting the dollar against the yen two weeks before the presidential election. Meanwhile, Japan’s general election might also affect the yen by changing the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook. –Are you interested to learn more about Australian forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The dollar extended recent gains to trade near an over 2-month high against its peers. Bets ahead of the November US presidential election show Trump in the lead, supporting the dollar. A Trump win is bullish for the dollar, increasing the likelihood of high interest rates. However, the race is tight, and things might change in the time before the election. At the same time, markets are still digesting the new outlook for a gradual Fed rate-cutting cycle. A few weeks back, rate cut expectations indicated a 50-bps cut in November. However, that quickly changed with incoming data. Currently, there is an 89% chance of a 25-bps rate cut in November. The US will release business activity data before the policy meeting to show the state of the manufacturing and services sectors. Meanwhile, in Japan, the upcoming October 27th general election could change the majority in parliament and affect Ishiba’s position. Such changes could also change the outlook for monetary policy in Japan. The Bank of Japan has paused after implementing its first rate hike in March. Moreover, a recent Reuters poll showed that most economists expect the next rate hike to be in March next year. USD/JPY key events today There won’t be any high-impact reports from the US or Japan today. Therefore, the dollar might extend its rally. USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bulls make fresh highs On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is climbing to make a new high in the uptrend. It trades well above the SMA, with the RSI in bullish territory. However, for some time, the price has stayed near the SMA. Consequently, the slope of the uptrend has slowed. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- At the same time, while the price is making higher highs, the RSI has made lower highs, indicating fading enthusiasm. If this persists, the trend might reverse to the downside. However, if bulls maintain control, the price will revisit the 152.02 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/22/usd-jpy-price-analysis-trump-victory-bets-drive-dollar-higher/

2024-10-22 08:16

The Bank of England governor might drop hints on future policy moves. The greenback was steady as traders priced a less aggressive Fed easing cycle. US presidential election bets suggest a Trump win. The GBP/USD outlook shows a rebound from recent lows as market participants await a speech from BoE governor Andrew Bailey. Meanwhile, the dollar remained near a two-and-a-half-month high as markets adjusted their Fed rate cut expectations and awaited the upcoming US elections. –Are you interested to learn more about Australian forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The Bank of England governor is set to speak this week and might drop hints on future policy moves. Therefore, traders will pay close attention to his speech later today. Despite Friday’s upbeat retail sales report, the UK economy has slowed down and is performing poorly compared to the US economy. At the same time, inflation eased below the BoE’s 2% target, prompting market participants to increase rate-cut bets. As a result, UK yields fell, weighing on the pound. Meanwhile, despite a slight retreat, the greenback was steady as traders priced a less aggressive Fed easing cycle. Recent economic reports have slowly shifted the outlook for rate cuts from aggressive to gradual. The US economy is holding up well, with the labor market and sales beating forecasts. At the same time, inflation increased more than expected in September, reducing the pressure to cut rates. Meanwhile, Fed policymakers have assumed a more cautious tone. Although they expect more rate cuts, the size and pace are unclear. Currently, traders are pricing an 89% chance of a 25-bps rate cut in November. Elsewhere, the US presidential election is on the horizon, and bets suggest a Trump win. If Trump wins, his tax and tariff policies might increase inflation and interest rates, increasing demand for the dollar. GBP/USD key events today BOE Gov Bailey Speaks GBP/USD technical outlook: Double bottom pauses downtrend On the technical side, the GBP/USD price trades between the 30-SMA resistance and the 1.2975 support level. The bias is bearish because the indicators and price action suggest a downtrend. The SMA is above the price, and the RSI is below 50, in bearish territory. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- However, it has made a bearish divergence, indicating that the downtrend might be at its end. Furthermore, the price has made a double bottom at the 1.2975 support level. Therefore, the price might soon break above the SMA to revisit the 1.3100 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/22/gbp-usd-outlook-sterling-recovers-ahead-of-boe-speech/

2024-10-21 09:08

Data last week boosted expectations for a massive BoC rate cut. Oil has recently dropped due to eating Middle East tensions. The greenback recovered on Monday as market participants priced a likely Trump win in November. The USD/CAD outlook shows a slow climb amid bets for a massive BoC rate cut on Wednesday. At the same time, the dollar rallied as markets increasingly priced a Trump win in November. –Are you interested to learn more about Australian forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data last week boosted expectations for a massive BoC rate cut. Notably, Canada’s inflation eased more than expected to 1.6%, increasing pressure on the central bank to lower borrowing costs. At the same time, Canada’s economy has deteriorated due to high interest rates. Currently, markets are pricing a 90% chance that the BoC will cut rates by 50-bps on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Loonie barely reacted to news that China was planning funding schemes to support its stock market. Stimulus to support China’s economy is bullish for oil as it improves the demand outlook. However, oil has recently dropped due to eating Middle East tensions. Consequently, CAD has also dropped. Elsewhere, the greenback recovered on Monday as market participants priced a likely Trump win in November. As the US presidential election looms, traders increasingly expect Trump to win. This is supporting the dollar as Trump’s policies could mean higher inflation. Such an outcome would make it difficult for the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. Moreover, it could lead to a pivot that would boost the dollar. Furthermore, data from the US has shown a resilient economy, changing Fed rate cut expectations. Markets now expect a gradual easing phase with a 95% chance of a 25-bps cut in November. USD/CAD key events today There will be no key events in the US or Canada today, so the pair will likely extend its gains. USD/CAD technical outlook: Bulls losing steam On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is retesting the 1.3825 resistance. It trades above the 30-SMA while the RSI trades near the overbought region, supporting a bullish bias. However, there are signs that bulls might be ready to give up control. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- First, the price recently punctured the 30-SMA, showing stronger bearish momentum. At the same time, the RSI is making lower highs, indicating fading bullish momentum. Therefore, if the price fails to break above the 1.3825 resistance, it might reverse to the downside. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/21/usd-cad-outlook-loonie-slips-as-rate-cut-bets-build/

2024-10-21 08:37

China launched funding schemes to support its stock market. Treasury yields rose as bets for a Trump win increased. Markets are pricing a 26% chance of an RBA rate cut in December. The AUD/USD forecast shows a recovering dollar as markets return their focus to the upcoming US presidential election. Meanwhile, a top RBA official noted that Australia’s labor market had surprised the central bank, which could mean further delays in rate cuts. –Are you interested to learn more about Australian forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The dollar rebounded on Monday after ending Friday down due to a surge in risk appetite. China launched funding schemes to support the stock market, boosting commodity currencies like the Aussie. Economic stimulus in China improves the outlook for demand for commodities like gold and oil. However, the greenback recovered by Monday as the focus shifted to the November presidential election. Treasury yields have been on the rise as bets for a Trump win increase. A Trump win is bullish for the dollar because his policies will likely increase inflation and interest rates. This month, the dollar has risen over 2.5% due to better-than-expected economic data. At the same time, the Fed’s rate cut outlook has shifted, with markets now expecting a gradual pace. Currently, bets show a 95% chance of a rate cut in November. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar jumped last week after domestic data revealed a robust labor market. September was the sixth month where jobs beat estimates. Notably, on Monday, RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser said the report was a surprise for the central bank. However, he noted that there could be many reasons behind the strong labor market. Therefore, the central bank would not only depend on that data to decide policy. Nevertheless, markets are pricing a lower 26% chance of a rate cut in December. AUD/USD key events today Markets do not expect any critical reports from Australia or the US. Therefore, traders will keep speculating on the upcoming US election. AUD/USD technical forecast: Bears fight for control at the 30-SMA On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is dropping after failing to sustain a move above the 30-SMA. The bias is bearish since the price trades below the SMA with the RSI below 50. However, bearish momentum has eased as the price sticks close to the SMA. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- At the same time, the RSI made a bullish divergence, signaling a looming reversal. If this signal plays out, the price will break above the 0.6700 level and the 30-SMA. Otherwise, bears will revisit the 0.6650 level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/21/aud-usd-forecast-dollar-rebounds-as-us-election-looms/

2024-10-20 07:38

Retail sales in the US and the UK came in above expectations. UK inflation eased more than expected to reach 1.7%. The greenback firmed as markets increasingly bet on a Trump win in November. The GBP/USD weekly forecast shows a neutral bias as the US and UK economies show resilience. The price manages to close above 1.3000 handle. Ups and downs of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair ended the week nearly flat amid economic reports from the UK and the US. Retail sales in both countries exceeded expectations, indicating robust consumer spending. Meanwhile, UK inflation eased more than expected to reach 1.7%, below the Bank of England’s target. Market participants are betting on a rate cut in November. –Are you interested to learn more about Australian forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Elsewhere, the greenback firmed as markets increasingly bet on a Trump win in November. Such an outcome would likely increase inflation and pause the Fed’s rate-cycle, boosting the dollar. Next week’s key events for GBP/USD Next week, the UK will release data on business activity in the manufacturing sector. At the same time, traders will focus on US durable goods orders. The previous reading revealed that the UK manufacturing sector is in expansion. A better-than-expected reading on Thursday will likely lower the chances of a Bank of England rate cut in November. The opposite is also true. Meanwhile, inflation in the UK has fallen below the central bank’s target at 1.7%. At the same time, service inflation has fallen. Therefore, policymakers might be more willing to cut rates. Meanwhile, the US durable goods orders will show the state of demand, impacting Fed rate cut expectations. GBP/USD technical forecast: Bears active under 1.3051 support On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is retesting the 1.3051 after recently breaking below. Bears have taken the lead after the price reversed at the 1.3400 key resistance level. A bearish RSI divergence was the first sign of trouble for the previous bullish trend. Soon after, bears breached the 30-SMA support while the RSI dropped below 50, into bearish territory. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- However, the price must now detach from the 1.3051 level to continue the downtrend. Before this happens, bulls might challenge the 22-SMA. A break above the SMA would return GBP/USD to the high at 1.3400. On the other hand, if the SMA holds or the price immediately collapses, bears will target the 1.2701 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/20/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-uk-economy-shows-resilience/