2024-11-06 12:43
Voting reveals that Trump will be the next US president. Data on Friday revealed a poor performance in the US labor market. The Bank of England will likely cut rates by 25-bps on Thursday. The GBP/USD forecast turned to the downside after news outlets reported that Republican candidate Donald Trump won the election. Meanwhile, market participants prepared for a rate cut at the Bank of England policy meeting. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Voting in the US on Wednesday revealed that Trump was in the lead and would likely become the next president. After weeks of speculation, market participants are more convinced that Trump’s policies will increase inflation. Therefore, the Fed might have a difficult time finishing its rate-cutting cycle. After the election, the market focus will return to the state of the US economy and the FOMC policy meeting. Data on Friday revealed a poor performance in the US labor market. The US economy added just 12,000 new jobs in October, well below estimates of 106,000 additional jobs. However, the impact on the dollar was minimal because the unemployment rate remained steady. At the same time, experts noted that the slow job growth was due to disruptions caused by hurricanes. Nevertheless, the report might shape the tone during the FOMC policy meeting. Before the data, policymakers had assumed a more hawkish tone, with some expecting the central bank to pause in December. If this tone remains, the dollar will rise. On the other hand, if the Fed signals another rate cut this year, the greenback will collapse. Meanwhile, the Bank of England will likely cut rates by 25-bps on Thursday. This outlook follows recent figures showing inflation at 1.7%, below the central bank’s targets. However, most economists believe this might be the last rate cut for the year. GBP/USD key events today Market participants will keep digesting the US election results as there are no other high-impact reports. GBP/USD technical forecast: Bulls give up control above 1.3000 On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has collapsed after failing to sustain a move above the 1.3000 key psychological level. Bulls had attempted to take charge. However, sentiment suddenly shifted when the price made a bearish engulfing pattern. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- A break below the 22-SMA has allowed bears to retest the 1.2850 support level. If bears maintain enthusiasm and the RSI stays below 50, the price will make a new low below 1.2850, continuing the previous downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/06/gbp-usd-forecast-pound-collapses-as-trump-secures-victory/
2024-11-06 11:40
It is clear that Trump will be the next president. Economists forecast slower job growth in Canada. The market focus is shifting to the FOMC policy meeting. The USD/CAD price analysis indicates a sudden surge in bullish momentum as Trump takes the lead in the US presidential election. Some news outlets have already shown that Trump won the election, which has boosted the dollar. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar was vulnerable against the dollar ahead of domestic employment figures. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- After weeks of speculation, the results are finally out, and it is more apparent that Trump will be the next president. Trump has proposed tariff and tax changes that will likely be inflationary. Consequently, the Fed might have to rethink its policy outlook to a less dovish. This, in turn, will boost treasury yields and the dollar. At the same time, higher tariffs on imported goods will have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar. Canada’s economy exports nearly 75% of its goods to the US market. Therefore, tariffs would affect exports and hurt the economy. Meanwhile, market participants expect employment figures from Canada on Friday. Forecasts show slower job growth, with the economy likely adding 27,900 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate might increase from 6.5% to 6.6%. Weaker-than-expected figures might push the Bank of Canada to implement another massive rate cut. On the other hand, if the economy adds more jobs than expected, the Canadian dollar will climb. Market focus is slowly shifting from the US presidential election to the FOMC policy meeting. The US Central Bank will meet on Thursday and likely cut rates by 25-bps. However, traders will pay closer attention to the messaging on future rate cuts. USD/CAD key events today Market participants will absorb the outcome of the US election as there won’t be any other key events. USD/CAD technical price analysis: Bears struggle to keep control On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has bounced higher after finding support at the 1.3825 key level. The price made a bullish engulfing candle, indicating a surge in bullish momentum. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- However, before this, the price had broken out of its bullish wedge pattern. The break indicated a change in control from bulls to bears. However, if they fail to keep the price below the 22-SMA, it might revisit the 1.3951 resistance level. A break above would signal a continuation of the bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/06/usd-cad-price-analysis-dollar-rebounds-as-trump-leads/
2024-11-05 10:27
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged. Australia’s underlying inflation remains high at 3.5%. The dollar was vulnerable on the day of the US election. The AUD/USD price analysis indicates renewed bullish sentiment after hawkish remarks at the Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting. Meanwhile, the dollar pulled back as bets supported a Harris win in the US presidential election. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, noting that inflation remained too high. Moreover, Australia’s central bank warned that interest rates might stay high for longer. Notably, the labor market has remained resilient despite high rates. Meanwhile, inflation eased in the third quarter to 2.8%. However, underlying inflation remained high at 3.5%, keeping policymakers cautious. At the same time, market participants are only fully pricing a rate cut in May next year. After the meeting, the Australian dollar rose. On the other hand, the dollar was vulnerable on the day of the US election as bets showed Kamala in a stronger position. Consequently, traders unwound the Trump trade. There was a time when Trump was always in the lead in betting sites. This supported the dollar as his policies create a hawkish outlook for Fed policy. Trump has proposed increased tariffs, among other changes that would increase inflation. Meanwhile, experts believe Kamal would likely continue with most of Biden’s policies. In this case, the Fed would continue its rate-cutting cycle, weighing on the dollar. The Federal Reserve will meet soon after the election, and markets expect a 25-bps rate cut. However, they will focus more on the messaging on future policy moves. AUD/USD key events today US ISM services PMI US presidential election US congressional elections AUD/USD technical price analysis: Trend reverses after bullish engulfing candle On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is climbing after reversing near the 0.6550 support level. The price sits above the 30-SMA, showing bulls are in the lead. At the same time, the RSI has broken above 50 to support solid bullish momentum. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Bulls strengthened enough to take control near the 0.6550 level. Here, the price made a bullish engulfing candle, signaling stronger momentum. Soon after, the price broke above the 30-SMA, confirming a reversal. Currently, bulls are eying the 0.6650 resistance level. If the price breaks above this level, it will likely reach the 0.6700 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/05/aud-usd-price-analysis-aussie-bulls-cheer-rbas-hawkish-tone/
2024-11-05 08:41
Kamala Harris has become more popular, leading to an unwinding of the Trump trade. Market participants are awaiting the FOMC policy meeting. Experts believe Trump’s policy changes will increase inflation. The EUR/USD outlook shows a frail dollar as markets unwind the Trump trade. Recent polls have shown a lower likelihood of a Trump win. Meanwhile, they have shown Kamala leading in places like Iowa, a Republican stronghold. Nevertheless, the race remains tight. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- In the beginning, bets favored a Trump win, which boosted the dollar. However, in recent days, Kamala Harris has become more popular, leading to an unwinding of the Trump trade. Trump has proposed several policy changes that would affect tariffs and taxes. Moreover, experts believe these changes would increase inflation, boosting the dollar. On the other hand, Kamala is more likely to continue with policies already in place. Therefore, the Fed would continue lowering borrowing costs, hurting the greenback. A weak dollar allows the euro to climb. Furthermore, the tight race has created a lot of uncertainty that could increase volatility after the election results. Meanwhile, market participants are also awaiting the FOMC policy meeting. The Fed will meet after the election results and markets have priced in a 25-bps cut. However, data last week revealed an unexpected drop in job growth that could change the outlook for future rate cuts. Initially, policymakers had assumed a more cautious tone, with some forecasting only one more rate cut this year. Therefore, traders will watch the messaging for clues on whether the central bank will cut rates in December. A cautious tone will boost the dollar. On the other hand, if Powell strikes a dovish tone, rate cut expectations will increase, pushing the greenback lower. EUR/USD key events today US ISM services PMI US presidential election US congressional elections EUR/USD technical outlook: 1.0900 resistance poses challenge On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has risen above the 30-SMA in a new bullish trend. At the same time, the RSI trades above 50, indicating strong bullish momentum. However, the price faces a strong hurdle at the 1.0900 resistance level. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- A surge in momentum would push the price beyond this level to make a new high in the uptrend. On the other hand, if the resistance holds firm, the price will fall to retest the SMA support. A break below the SMA would clear the path to the 1.0800 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/05/eur-usd-outlook-dollar-strains-as-trump-trade-fades/
2024-11-04 13:05
Most market participants are waiting for the outcome of the US presidential election. Canada’s manufacturing sector expanded further in October. Data revealed that the US economy added only 12,000 jobs in October. The USD/CAD outlook shows caution ahead of the much-anticipated US presidential election. The Canadian dollar remained steady as investors digested Friday’s robust manufacturing business activity report. On the other hand, the dollar eased after Friday’s employment figures solidified bets for a November Fed rate cut. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- There are only two possible outcomes for the US election: a Democratic win for Kamala or a Republican win for Trump. Analysts predict a continuation of current policies with Kamala. Therefore, the outlook for the economy will likely remain unchanged, allowing the Fed to complete its mandate by cutting interest rates. This would lead to a decline in the dollar and USD/CAD. On the other hand, Trump has proposed some changes to tariffs that would hurt the Canadian dollar. Canada exports most of its products to the US, so tariffs on imported goods would hurt Canada’s economy and the loonie. At the same time, experts believe Trump’s policies will boost inflation, complicating the outlook for Fed rate cuts. In this case, the dollar would rally. Meanwhile, data on Friday revealed that Canada’s manufacturing sector expanded further, with the PMI reaching 51.1 in October. A rebound in the economy might ease pressure on the Bank of Canada to lower borrowing costs. In the US, data revealed that the economy added only 12,000 jobs in October. It was a significant drop from the previous reading of 254,000. Therefore, it increased the likelihood of a rate cut in November. USD/CAD key events today The pair will start the week quietly, as there are no key events coming from Canada or the US. USD/CAD technical outlook: Bears strengthen within the bullish wedge On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is trading in a bullish wedge pattern. However, the price has broken below the 30-SMA, indicating a shift in sentiment. At the same time, the RSI has broken below 50, suggesting stronger bearish momentum. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Bullish momentum peaked at the start of the wedge pattern. Since then, bulls have gradually lost enthusiasm, leading to a bearish RSI divergence. A break below the wedge support would allow the price to revisit the 1.3825 support level and likely start a downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/04/usd-cad-outlook-cautious-sentiment-ahead-of-us-election-day/
2024-11-04 11:09
Market participants are eagerly awaiting the outcome of the presidential election. The US economy added only 12,000 jobs in October. The yen remained steady after the BoJ policy meeting. The USD/JPY forecast shows some relief for the yen as the dollar eases ahead of the US presidential election. The greenback has fallen since last week as political uncertainty in the US sent investors to other safe-haven assets like the yen. At the same time, the yen has remained steady since the BoJ policy meeting. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Market participants are eagerly awaiting the outcome of the presidential election. Bets have fluctuated in recent weeks, with no clear winner. Initially, Trump was in the lead, which supported the dollar. However, by Monday morning, PredictIT showed that Kamala was at 54 cents while Trump was at 52 cents. A Kamala win would allow the Fed to continue lowering borrowing costs, which is bearish for the greenback. On the other hand, a Trump win would lead to a rally in USD/JPY as markets adjust to a hawkish outlook for the Fed. Trump’s policies on tariffs and taxes would increase inflation, which would likely force the Fed to pause or hike rates. Elsewhere, data on Friday revealed that the US economy added only 12,000 jobs in October, well below estimates of 106,000. Furthermore, it was a massive drop from the previous month’s reading, solidifying bets for a November rate cut. Nevertheless, experts noted that most of the change in employment was due to the impact of hurricanes on the economy. Meanwhile, the yen remained steady after BoJ policymakers held rates unchanged and failed to signal a cautious outlook. The changes in Japan’s political landscape had led some to expect a more cautious BoJ policy outlook. USD/JPY key events today The price might consolidate, with no key reports coming out today. USD/JPY technical forecast: Sentiment shifts, but bears remain hesitant On the technical side, the USD/JPY price trades below the 30-SMA after finding resistance at the 153.75 level. Bulls stopped near this level, where the RSI showed exhaustion in the uptrend. The RSI made a bearish divergence, later allowing bears to breach the 30-SMA support. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- However, the new move remains weak since bears have failed to detach from the SMA. At the same time, bears face a strong hurdle at the 151.74 support level. A break below this level would allow USD/JPY to start making lower lows. Otherwise, the uptrend will continue. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/04/usd-jpy-forecast-yen-finds-relief-before-us-election/
