2025-07-08 09:53
The AUD/USD outlook shows a sharp rebound in the Australian dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia stunned markets by keeping interest rates unchanged. Trump sent out tariff letters to some of the US’s major trading partners. The AUD/USD outlook shows a sharp rebound in the Australian dollar after a surprise pause by the RBA. Meanwhile, market participants remain cautious after Trump sent out letters, increasing tariffs on 14 countries. The Reserve Bank of Australia stunned markets by keeping interest rates unchanged on Tuesday. Economists and market participants were almost fully expecting a 25-bps rate cut. However, policymakers said they needed more time to assess the state of inflation before cutting rates. As a result, traders are pricing an 88% chance of a cut in August. All signs had pointed to a rate cut this week. The economy was weak, and inflation had eased significantly. If this trend continues, the central bank is likely to cut during its next meeting. Elsewhere, Trump sent out tariff letters to some of the US’s major trading partners, including Japan. The move has increased concerns about higher global tariffs, which will further harm the global economy. At the same time, these tariffs may exacerbate the slowdown in the US economy, prompting the Fed to lower borrowing costs. Nevertheless, market reaction remains muted at the moment. AUD/USD key events today Traders don’t expect key releases from Australia or the US. Therefore, they will continue to digest the RBA decision. AUD/USD technical outlook: Bulls re-emerge to challenge the SMA On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has bounced back sharply to retest the 30-SMA resistance. Initially, a sharp decline briefly pushed the price below a solid support zone comprising the 0.382 Fib level and the 0.6500 psychological level. However, bears were not strong enough to sustain the move. As a result, the price rose back above the zone and is now retesting the SMA. Meanwhile, the RSI has broken above 50, into bullish territory. If bulls maintain their momentum, the price is likely to break above the SMA. Such a move would indicate a shift in sentiment. Moreover, it would allow AUD/USD to retest the 0.6590 resistance level. However, if the SMA holds firm, bears will remain in the lead. Therefore, the sellers will likely retest the support zone. A lower low would strengthen the bearish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/08/aud-usd-outlook-aussie-dollar-surges-on-surprise-rba-pause/
2025-07-07 10:38
The USD/CAD outlook indicates a rallying dollar as markets prepare for Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The US has only signed trade deals with the UK, China, and Vietnam. Market participants are expecting crucial employment figures from Canada this week. The USD/CAD outlook shows a rallying dollar as markets brace for Trump’s reciprocal tariff deadline. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar is plunging as traders worry about the likely impact of higher tariffs on Canada’s economy. With few major economic releases this week, all focus is on the looming tariff deadline. In the 90 days since the pause, the US has only signed trade deals with the UK, China and Vietnam. Therefore, most of its trading partners may soon start paying higher tariffs. Talks between Canada and the US have been ongoing since last week. However, with no deal announced yet, traders remain uncertain about the outlook. High tariffs would reduce demand for goods from Canada, significantly hurting the economy. This, in turn, would put pressure on the Bank of Canada to resume its aggressive rate-cutting cycle, which would hurt the Canadian dollar. Market participants are also expecting employment figures from Canada this week. At the moment, there is a slight chance that the BoC will resume rate cuts at its next meeting. A downbeat employment report could increase bets for such a move. On the other hand, if the labor market remains resilient, the central bank might continue its pause. USD/CAD key events today Traders are not expecting any key economic releases from the US or Canada. The main catalyst is tariff uncertainty. USD/CAD technical outlook: Bulls approach the 1.3700 resistance On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has broken above the 30-SMA and its bearish trendline, indicating a shift in sentiment. Bulls are now in the lead, with the price trading far above the 30-SMA and the RSI in bullish territory. However, the price must start making higher highs and lows to confirm a new bullish trend. At the moment, it is approaching the 1.3700 key resistance level. Here, it might pause and pull back to retest the recently broken SMA. If it holds as support, the price will seek higher highs. This would allow the price to break above 1.3700 and likely reach the 1.3800 resistance. If not, it might revisit the 1.3550 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/07/usd-cad-outlook-gains-ahead-of-trump-tariff-deadline/
2025-07-07 09:09
The AUD/USD forecast shows the Australian dollar down due to poor risk sentiment. Trump might soon announce higher tariffs that will take effect on August 1. The market focus is on the looming Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting. The AUD/USD forecast shows bearish signs amid poor risk sentiment. Market participants are concerned about Trump’s looming reciprocal deadline and its potential implications. At the same time, they are preparing for a likely rate cut during the RBA policy meeting on Tuesday. Trump’s tariff deadline is quickly approaching, and most of the US’s trading partners have yet to sign trade deals to avoid higher levies. So far, only China, Vietnam, and the UK are on the safe side. By Wednesday, Trump might announce higher tariffs that will take effect on August 1. These tariffs will rekindle trade tensions and further hurt risk appetite. The risk-sensitive Aussie will suffer in such an environment. At the same time, market focus is on the looming Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting. According to economists, the central bank is expected to cut rates a third time. The move might weigh on the Australian dollar. Traders will also pay attention to the tone during the meeting. Inflation in Australia has eased, and the economy has slowed. Therefore, there is pressure on the central bank to reduce borrowing costs. A more dovish than expected tone will increase rate cut expectations. AUD/USD key events today Market participants do not expect any key releases from Australia or the US. Therefore, all focus will remain on trade developments. AUD/USD technical forecast: New decline faces solid support zone On the technical side, the AUD/USD has experienced a sharp decline after breaking below the 30-SMA. The prie has reached a strong support zone comprising the 0.382 Fib level and the 0.6500 key level. Meanwhile, the bearish bias is strong, as the price trades below the 30-SMA, with the RSI near the oversold region. A break below the support zone will strengthen the bearish bias and clear the path for AUD/USD to reach the 0.6400 support level. However, after such a steep decline, bears might need to pause for breath before breaking below the support zone. A pause might allow the price to bounce back and retest the 30-SMA before it continues lower. The bearish bias will remain strong as long as the price stays below the SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/07/aud-usd-forecast-risk-sentiment-sours-on-tariff-deadline-fears/
2025-07-05 18:07
The USD/CAD weekly forecast shows optimism about US-Canada trade talks. Demand for the dollar fell after the US Senate passed Trump’s controversial bill. The pair recovered slightly at the end of the week after upbeat US employment numbers. The USD/CAD weekly forecast shows optimism regarding progress in trade negotiations between Canada and the US. Ups and downs of USD/CAD USD/CAD had a bearish week as the Canadian dollar gained on hopes of a trade deal between Canada and the US. At the start of the week, data indicated weakness in the US labor market. Private employment unexpectedly dropped, weighing on the dollar. At the same time, demand for the dollar fell after the US Senate passed Trump’s controversial bill. Meanwhile, progress in talks between Canada and the US boosted the Canadian dollar. Still, the pair recovered slightly at the end of the week after upbeat US employment numbers. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week, the US will release the FOMC minutes. Meanwhile, Canada will release its crucial monthly employment figures. The FOMC minutes will show the tone of policymakers during the last meeting. Therefore, it might contain clues on future policy moves. So far, traders are pricing the first rate cut in September. Meanwhile, Canada’s employment report will continue to shape the outlook for Bank of Canada rate cuts. Currently, market participants are pricing a 37.25% chance of a cut in July. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Second attempt at 1.3550 is weak On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is attempting a second break below the 1.3550 support level. The price trades below the 22-SMA with the RSI below 50, supporting a bearish bias. USD/CAD has maintained a downtrend, with the price making lower highs and lows. Although the price pierced the 22-SMA several times, it respected a resistance trendline. However, as bears challenge the 1.3550 support a second time, it is clear that momentum has weakened. The RSI has made a higher low, suggesting fading momentum. Therefore, if bears are weaker this time, they might fail to break below the support. In such a case, the price would break above the SMA and the trendline resistance. This would allow bulls to retest the 1.4003 key resistance level. However, if bears regain momentum before this happens, the price will break below 1.3550, continuing the downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/05/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-optimism-grows-on-trade-talks/
2025-07-05 18:02
The AUD/USD weekly forecast indicates some bearish sentiment. Risk sentiment was poor following the passage of Trump’s tax-cut bill through the US Senate. The US economy added 147,000 jobs in June, above the forecast of 111,000. The AUD/USD weekly forecast indicates some bearish sentiment as market participants prepare for an RBA rate cut. Ups and downs of AUD/USD The AUD/USD price had a bullish week but closed well below its highs. Initially, downbeat data at the start of the week helped support the Aussie. However, risk sentiment was poor after Trump’s tax-cut bill passed through the US Senate. At the same time, there was uncertainty ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariff deadline. Moreover, the US released an upbeat employment report on Friday. The economy added 147,000 jobs in June, above the forecast of 111,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate was unexpectedly low at 4.1%. As a result, Fed rate cut expectations eased, and the dollar strengthened. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week, market participants will focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting. Economists in a Reuters poll this week said they expect the central bank to cut interest rates a third time since inflation has eased and the economy is slowing down. The move might weigh on the Australian dollar. Meanwhile, traders will also pay attention to the FOMC policy meeting minutes. These might contain clues on the outlook for future rate cuts. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Momentum fades after range breakout On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is pulling back after breaking out of a consolidation area. It still trades above the 30-SMA, a sign that bulls are in the lead. At the same time, the RSI trades slightly above 50, suggesting strong bullish momentum. After making a sharp bullish move, the price stalled and began trading between the 0.6400 support level and the 0.6500 resistance level. The range held for some time until bulls gained enough momentum to push the price out of the consolidation. However, while the price has made a higher high, the RSI has not. This indicates that momentum is waning from its previous high. Therefore, bulls might struggle to reach and break above the 0.6601 level. Meanwhile, if bears become stronger, the price will likely break below the SMA and return to the range area. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/05/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-traders-gear-up-for-rba-rate-cut/
2025-07-04 12:47
The EUR/USD price analysis reveals growing uncertainty about the outlook for tariffs on Eurozone goods. Data in the previous session revealed unexpected strength in the US labor market. Market participants are watching the July 9 tariff deadline. The EUR/USD price analysis reveals growing uncertainty about the outlook for tariffs on Eurozone goods as the deadline approaches. Progress in talks between the US and the Eurozone has been slow, yielding no deal. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened after data revealed resilience in the labor market. The Eurozone is under pressure to get a trade deal before the July 9 deadline. If not, the US will impose high tariffs on Eurozone goods that could hurt the economy. Such an outcome would be bearish for the euro. Therefore, market participants might remain cautious about taking big positions in the euro. Meanwhile, the dollar held firm after data in the previous session revealed unexpected strength in the labor market. The sector added 147,000 jobs in June, beating forecasts of 111,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, which was below the estimated 4.3%. The positive report eased pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs. However, tariff uncertainty has hurt sentiment as the market watches the July 9 deadline. Higher tariffs might escalate trade tensions, further hurting the dollar. EUR/USD key events today Market participants do not expect any key economic releases today. A holiday in the US will likely keep trading thin. EUR/USD technical price analysis: Bulls and bears battle for control at the 30-SMA On the technical side, the EUR/USD price is rebounding after a sharp decline that punctured the 30-SMA support line. The move came after the RSI made a bearish divergence, indicating fading bullish momentum. Bulls weakened when the price reached the 1.1800 resistance level. As a result, bears made a big-bodied candle that punctured the 30-SMA. However, it was not enough to keep the price below. Bulls are still struggling to push the price back up to retest the 1.1800 resistance level. If it holds firm again, the price will likely drop back below the SMA. Such a move would allow EUR/USD to target the 1.1600 support level. On the other hand, if the price breaks above the 1.1800 resistance, it will form a higher high, confirming a continuation of the bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/04/eur-usd-price-analysis-us-tariff-deadline-sparks-uncertainty/
