2025-07-31 11:58
The USD/JPY outlook shows fluctuations in the yen after the Bank of Japan policy meeting. The Bank of Japan was more upbeat about the outlook for Japan’s economy than expected. US data revealed strong private employment and GDP growth. The USD/JPY outlook turns slightly bearish after the Bank of Japan policy meeting that revealed a positive outlook for the economy and inflation. However, dollar strength continued after upbeat data in the previous session. -If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- The Bank of Japan was more upbeat about the outlook for Japan’s economy than expected. The brighter outlook comes after the US-Japan trade deal. At the same time, the central bank upgraded its forecast for inflation. As a result, it raised expectations for rate hikes next year, boosting the yen. “There is definitely a clear justification for them to hike rates,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ. “Now, the fact that Japan has finally reached a deal with the US does remove some element of that uncertainty for itself. So I think the question is whether the BOJ is now prepared to hike in October.” However, dollar strength from the previous session undid the yen’s gains. The greenback rallied after data revealed strong private employment and GDP growth. At the same time, the Fed kept rates unchanged as expected. USD/JPY key events today US core PCE price index m/m US employment cost index q/q US unemployment claims USD/JPY technical outlook: RSI divergence points to weaker bulls On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken above the 149.01 key resistance. At the same time, it has swung higher above the 30-SMA, suggesting bulls are in the lead. Meanwhile, the RSI trades near the overbought region, supporting strong bullish momentum. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Bulls have maintained a strong lead since the price reversed at the 146.00 support. Moreover, the break above the 149.01 key resistance confirms a continuation of the previous uptrend. However, the RSI shows a different story. While the price has made a higher high, the RSI has made a lower one, indicating a bearish divergence. This is a sign that bulls are not as strong as they were when they first challenged these levels. Therefore, bulls might find it challenging to make new highs above the 149.01 key level. Moreover, bears might emerge stronger for a deep pullback or a reversal. Would you be interested in trading forex now? Invest at eToro! https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/31/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-wavers-after-boj-meeting-upbeat-us-data/
2025-07-31 09:56
The USD/CAD forecast shows an extension of the previous session’s move. The Bank of Canada held rates as expected on Wednesday. The US economy grew by 3.0%, compared to the forecast of 2.5%. The USD/CAD forecast shows an extension of the previous session’s move as the Canadian dollar continues its slide. Both the Bank of Canada and the Fed kept rates unchanged on Wednesday. Meanwhile, upbeat data from the US boosted the dollar against most of its peers. -If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- The Bank of Canada held rates as expected on Wednesday, noting that the economy remained resilient. At the same time, policymakers believe some underlying inflation pressures could further delay rate cuts. “Canada’s economy is showing some resilience so far… inflation is close to our 2% target, but we see evidence of underlying inflation pressures,” said Governor Tiff Macklem. As a result, traders are pricing an 81% chance that the central bank will pause again in September. However, there is a growing risk of a 35% tariff that could change this outlook. Similarly, the Fed held rates. However, two policymakers voted to cut by 25-bps. Still, the greenback gained after a bigger-than-expected increase in private employment. At the same time, the US economy grew by 3.0%, compared to the forecast of 2.5%. USD/CAD key events today Canada GDP m/m US core PCE price index m/m US employment cost index q/q US unemployment claims USD/CAD technical forecast: Bears emerge after a break above 1.3800 On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has broken above the 1.3800 key level and is quickly approaching the 1.3850 level. At the same time, the price trades well above the 30-SMA and the RSI is in the overbought region, suggesting a solid bullish bias. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- The price has maintained a steep rally since bulls took charge near the 1.3575 support level. Moreover, there have been no pullbacks or pauses to retest the 30-SMA. Even when the price broke above the 1.3750 key resistance level, it barely paused to retest the level before climbing to make new highs. However, after such a steep rally, bears have shown some strength and might trigger a pullback. A deep pullback would retest the 1.3750 level or the 30-SMA. On the other hand, a shallow pullback would retest the 1.3800 key level before the rally continues. Would you be interested in trading forex now? Invest at eToro! https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/31/usd-cad-forecast-loonie-slump-deepens-in-extended-selloff/
2025-07-30 12:54
The USD/CAD forecast shows intense pressure on the Canadian dollar ahead of the tariff deadline. Canada could face tariffs of 35% if there is no trade deal soon. Traders are expecting both the Fed and the BoC to pause. The USD/CAD forecast shows intense pressure on the Canadian dollar as the August 1 tariff deadline looms large. Canada remains among the few major economies without a trade deal. Meanwhile, market participants are preparing for the BoC and Fed policy meetings. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Talks between Canada and the US have gone on for some time. However, there is still no trade deal. To make matters worse, other major economies like Japan and the EU have secured deals. Meanwhile, Canada could face tariffs of 35%. Such an outcome would hurt the loonie further as the levies would hurt the economy. The Prime Minister has acknowledged that there won’t be a deal with zero tariffs. However, the focus remains on the eventual size. “The negotiations are at an intense phase. It’s a complex negotiation. We will only sign a deal that’s the right deal,” Carney said. “It’s improbable that there will be deals without any tariffs at all,” he said when asked whether Canada would escape being hit. “But there is a question about the level, there are questions about the size of tariffs.” Meanwhile, traders are expecting both the Fed and the BoC to pause. Therefore, the focus will be on the messaging about future moves. Meanwhile, data revealed a bigger-than-expected increase in US private employment, boosting the dollar. USD/CAD key events today BoC policy meeting Fed policy meeting USD/CAD technical forecast: Bulls approaching the 1.3800 key level On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has broken above the 1.3750 key resistance level. The move has solidified the bullish bias. At the same time, it has pushed the price further above the SMA, showing bulls have a solid lead. Meanwhile, the RSI trades in the overbought region, supporting strong bullish momentum. -If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- Furthermore, after breaking above the resistance, the price pulled back to retest the level before making a higher high. This is a sign that the price might be ready to continue higher. However, bulls have maintained a solid rally without pulling back or pausing for breath. Therefore, there might be a pause at the next hurdle. USD/CAD might pause at the 1.3800 key level. Nevertheless, it might eventually break above to continue the rally. Would you be interested in trading forex now? Invest at eToro! https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/30/usd-cad-forecast-canadian-dollar-pressured-by-tariff-risks/
2025-07-30 09:20
The AUD/USD price analysis shows rising RBA rate cuts after downbeat inflation figures. Australia’s inflation increased by 1.9% annually, compared to the forecast of 2.1%. Traders remain cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting. The AUD/USD price analysis shows a rise in RBA rate cut odds after downbeat inflation figures from Australia. Meanwhile, market participants are cautious ahead of the Fed policy meeting. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Data on Wednesday revealed that Australia’s inflation increased by 1.9% annually, compared to the forecast of 2.1%. The miss came as a relief for RBA policymakers who had paused at the last meeting due to inflation worries. As a result, market participants moved to fully price a rate cut in August. At the same time, experts believe the central bank will cut in November. “We believe that the board now has the confirmation it needs to continue on its ‘cautious’ – if not so predictable – path of removing current monetary restrictiveness,” said Luci Ellis, chief economist at Westpac. “We therefore expect it to cut rates by 25 bps at its August meeting,” she added. “Further cuts in November, February 2026, and May 2026, also look increasingly likely. Meanwhile, traders remain cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting. The Fed will likely hold rates due to the resilience of the economy and hot inflation. Moreover, market participants expect Powell to maintain his cautious tone, which would boost the dollar. AUD/USD key events today ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Advance GDP q/q FOMC meeting AUD/USD price technical analysis: Bears attempt to break out of consolidation On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has dropped to retest its range support at the 0.6500 level. The price trades well below the 30-SMA, a sign that bears have a strong lead. At the same time, the RSI is below 50, suggesting solid bearish momentum. -If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- AUD/USD has remained in consolidation between the 0.6500 support and the 0.6590 resistance levels. Recently, bulls attempted to break out of this consolidation but failed. As a result, the price fell back into the range and dropped below the 30-SMA. Given the strong bearish bias, the price might break below the range support. Such a move would allow AUD/USD to retest the 0.6460 level. However, to confirm a breakout, the price would have to start making lower highs and lows below this level. Would you be interested in trading forex now? Invest at eToro! https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/30/aud-usd-price-analysis-rate-cut-odds-climb-on-soft-aus-cpi/
2025-07-29 09:32
Gold price recovers from 3-week lows amid safe-haven demand. The US’s pressure on Russia to resolve the Ukraine conflicts keeps the risk elevated. The EU-US trade deal gives a boost to the US dollar, keeping gold’s upside capped. The gold price bounced off the 3-week lows near $3,300 on Tuesday, during the European session. The recovery move stemmed from the reassessment of risk sentiment by the traders, anticipating the Fed’s policy decision this week. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- A mild pullback in the US dollar from the multi-week top also helped the buyers ease some pressure. The respite came after four consecutive sessions of decline. The safe-haven demand for gold underpins the recent upside as markets continue to digest the trade development between the US and the EU. On the other hand, the geopolitical risk remains elevated as President Trump has set a deadline for Russia regarding the progress in the Ukraine conflict. Moreover, the US-China trade talks also pose a perplexing scenario for the market participants. Despite the gold’s rebound, the upside remains limited as the US dollar remains resilient and the Federal Reserve is largely expected to hold the rates steady for longer. The Fed is anticipated to keep rates unchanged in its meeting on Wednesday. However, the traders will be more interested in Fed Chair Powell’s statement, which will reveal the monetary policy. Key Events for Gold to Watch Today, we have only JOLTs Job Opening data from the US, which is expected to cool modestly. As a result, gold may find further support. Meanwhile, market participants are more eager to watch for US GDP, NFP, and Core PCE data, as these collectively shape the economic health, helping the Fed to find the policy path for the future. Gold Price Technical Analysis: Weak bullish attempt The 4-hour chart shows gold’s strong bearish momentum as the recent candles reveal one strong bearish engulfing bar, piercing the support level. The recent small upside candles are corrective, retesting the broken level. The RSI value has turned up from the oversold levels, residing near 40.0, which shows the gold is still not out of the woods. -If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, the key moving averages have already formed bearish crossovers and lie well above the price. It indicates downside potential, but the $3,300 level is a major support for the buyers. On breaking the level, the price may drift to another support level at $3,284 ahead of $3,248. On the upside, $3,350 remains a strong resistance. Would you be interested in trading forex now? Invest at eToro! https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/29/gold-price-rebounds-from-3-week-low-ahead-of-fomc-nfp/
2025-07-29 08:49
The EUR/USD outlook turns negative as the Eurozone is hit by the US-EU trade deal. European leaders voice opposition against the deal amid fear of economic backlash. The US dollar sees increased demand as the Fed may hold rates steady for longer. The EUR/USD outlook weakened as the pair continued its decline on Tuesday, following a 1.3% slump on Monday. It was the worst single-day performance of the euro in several months. The pair marked a fresh low at 1.1522 before the European session. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- The catalyst behind the downfall was a trade agreement between the US and the EU, which appears heavily skewed in favor of the US. The news triggered a fresh wave of economic backlash across the Eurozone. The EUR/USD price attempted to bounce from the lows, but the upside remains shallow as markets digest the finer details of the agreement. As per the deal, a tariff of 15% will be imposed on the EU imports, while Belgium has committed to purchase gas worth 750 bn EUR from the US along with investing an additional 600 EUR in American technology and infrastructure. The situation raises fears as the capital would drain out of Europe, which will impact the Eurozone’s GDP growth and trade surplus. The French PM called the deal a “submission,” while the German Chancellor warned that the deal could damage the industrial base of Europe. The EC’s effort to frame the deal as a diplomatic success has fallen flat, weighing on the financial markets and the euro’s long-term fundamentals. On the other hand, the US dollar has attracted a strong demand with a string of upbeat data along with a resilient American labor market. As a result, the Fed is expected to hold the rates steady, lending more room to the dollar bulls. Key Events for EUR/USD Today The only major data on the day is US JOLTs Job Openings, which is expected to show modest cooling in labor demand. EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Pullback After a Solid Sell-off The EUR/USD outlook on the 4-hour chart is slightly encouraging for the buyers, as the price found the floor just above the 1.1520 mark and is forming a bullish pinbar pattern. The price is already extremely oversold, with RSI at the 24.0 level. -If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- However, this pullback could only be a retest of the broken support around 1.1580, as the key moving averages are well above the price. The potential bearish crossover may pose a threat to the buyers. A substantial move above the 1.1600 level may alter the scenario. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/29/eur-usd-outlook-sinks-as-us-eu-trade-deal-sparks-capital-flight/
