2024-07-03 13:31

The world's largest crypto has now declined 14% over the past four weeks. Buyers of the U.S. spot BTC ETFs have an average entry price between $60,000 and $61,000 and a break below the range could bring a wave of liquidations, 10x Research said. The institutional wave of ETF buying has yet to arrive, wrote Markus Thielen. Traders often mistakenly cite round numbers as critical support or resistance levels, but in this case, the $60,000 level bitcoin (BTC) is currently flirting with could truly prove important. "We estimate that the average bitcoin ETF entry price is $60,000 to $61,000, and re-testing this level could result in a wave of liquidations," Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said. Since their debut on Jan. 11, the 11 U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have amassed over $14 billion in net inflows, according to Farside Investors. Per Thielen, 30% of the flows are part of a non-directional arbitrage strategy called the basis trade instead of outright bullish bets. Bitcoin's late April break below $60,000 bottomed out at around $56,500 after BlackRock said heavyweight institutions like sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and endowments were likely to trade in the spot ETFs. However, JPMorgan recently revealed that 80% of the inflows into the spot ETFs came from existing crypto market participants. "When Bitcoin dipped to 56,500 on May 2, Blackrock claimed ‘sovereign wealth and pension funds’ were coming," Thielen noted. "This helped arrest the decline, but now Blackrock says that 80% of their Bitcoin IBIT ETF buying is from retail, not institutions." Bitcoin has dropped nearly 14% in four weeks, predominantly due to faster sales by miners and old wallets, Germany's divestment of crypto holdings and fears that reimbursement by defunct exchange Mt. Gox will spur a wave of selling. Bitcoin is lower by 4% over the past 24 hours and trading at $60,200 after earlier Friday morning dipping just below $60,000. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/07/03/bitcoin-losing-60k-handle-may-trigger-wave-of-etf-liquidations-analyst/

2024-07-03 11:06

The U.K. is set to hold its first election in five years on Thursday and crypto is not a campaign-trail issue. The Labour Party is leading the polls, with 42% of voters expressing support, while the Conservatives have 19% according to a June Ipsos poll on voting intentions. Most leading parties have not mentioned crypto in their election manifestos. The Labour Party, the favorite to win tomorrow's U.K. general election, has barely mentioned crypto during its campaign, leaving the future of the industry in the country up in the air. Other than a few words on wanting the country to be a tokenization hub and support digital pound plans, the party has been tight-lipped about crypto. The topic did not come up during the last debate between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labour's Keir Starmer, which was dominated by welfare, immigration and the relationship with the European Union. While the Conservative government pushed a number of crypto-forward policies, its current manifesto – like those of Labour and the Liberal Democrats – makes no mention of it. Labour leads in the polls with 42% of voters expressing support. The Conservatives have 19%, according to a June Ipsos survey on voting intentions. When the seats are counted, Starmer is likely to be prime minister with a large majority in Parliament. The party's manifesto "referenced a kind of pro-competition environment," said Laura Navaratnam, U.K. policy lead at the Crypto Council for Innovation, an industry group. "It talked about the role of regulators, but all in a broader context. So still, nothing on crypto. But on the plus side, they haven't said anything negative either." Instead, the Labour manifesto focuses on economic growth, with plans to invest billions into building supply chains, adding more neighborhood police and cutting waiting times for the National Health Service. Party representatives did not return CoinDesk's request for comment. Not trendy Roughly half the world's population will vote in general elections this year. In most of the more than 60 nations going to the polls, including South Africa, Croatia, Finland, Lithuania and France, crypto has barely been an issue. The main exception is the U.S., where Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has brought up crypto issues, though crypto was not addressed in the first presidential debate. "Looking at all of the manifestos in aggregate, no one mentioned crypto," said Jordan Wain, U.K. policy lead at Chainalysis, of the British parties' plans. "But that kind of makes sense because manifestos are written for the electorate. They are written to show potential voters what that party thinks about wedge issues primarily." Health care, national security, crime and the economy are the chief battleground issues, he said. Say something Still, crypto industry participants hope the major parties will keep the issue in mind. George McDonaugh, the co-founder and co-managing director of investment firm KR1, said in a statement that he believes the crypto industry will help "foster growth and jobs." Eleanor Gaywood, head of strategy at Coincover, a protection firm, said it was "encouraging" that both Labour and Conservative supported innovation, but said concrete details are necessary. "After the election, it will take time to gauge the next government's stance on crypto." The U.K. was expected to pass legislation to allow the Financial Conduct Authority to regulate stablecoins alongside staking rules. That didn't happen because Sunak called the election earlier than many anticipated. Those rules are still needed, as are market abuse rules, Wain said. Guidance on the U.K. 's promotion rules is also needed, Navaratnam wrote in an opinion piece. Currently the regulators oversee crypto using the existing anti-money laundering registration regime and promotion rules, but the country needs more, crypto advocates have said. It's a question of when will it happen? The Conservatives have said they wanted the country to be a crypto hub, and last year passed legislation to help regulate the industry as well as measures to make seizing crypto easier in criminal cases. The Treasury Department consulted on how it wanted to regulate crypto and suggested a phased approach that starts with stablecoin legislation. A Labour government won't necessarily put a halt to the country's crypto ambitions, Navaratnam said. "So one would hope that [stablecoin legislation] is a fairly uncontroversial piece of legislation, which is already off the back of something fairly big, i.e. the amendments to the Financial Services and Markets Act, would be allowed to carry on in which case we would hope that we will see something in the autumn," Navaratnam said. Chainalysis' Wain said he believes that a lot of the work that has been done by regulators won't just be swept under the rug. "A lot of the really important work has been done and it's not been done by the party's themselves, it's been done by government departments, It's been done by the FCA, they're the ones that are formulating legislation," he said. "Whichever party comes in regardless of how quiet or how loud they've been they are not going to sweep all of that hard work off the table, it's not going anywhere." The FCA declined to comment. https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/07/03/ahead-of-the-uk-election-major-parties-remain-silent-on-crypto-issues/

2024-07-03 09:54

TRUMP, the largest Trump PoliFi token, is down 10% on-day and 34% in the last week. TREMP, the counterpart to Boden, is also down double digits: nearly 10% in the last 24 hours, and 37% on-week. Political finance (PoliFi) meme tokens are taking a hit in the run-up to the November U.S. elections, with several hyped stalwarts down nearly 95% from peak prices. Solana-based Jeo Boden (BODEN) meme coin, a play on Joe Biden mixed with Doland Duck, has dropped 70% in the past week, CoinGecko data shows, after the President's “disastrous debate” performance called into question his political future. BODEN is now down 80% in the last 30 days, and back to levels last seen in early March, when it was just issued. Even Trump-themed tokens are down, despite Donald Trump's electoral chances surging post-debate. TRUMP, the largest Trump PoliFi token, is down 10% on-day and 34% in the last week. TREMP, the counterpart to Boden, is also down double digits: nearly 10% in the last 24 hours, and 37% on-week. Meanwhile, the YES side of a Polymarket contract asking if Biden will drop out of the race topped 60% by Wednesday afternoon Asia time. As such, most PoliFi memecoins are in the red, with the PoliFi sector contracting by 11% in the last 24 hours. Trading volumes on the betting marketplace Polymarket have increased in tandem, however, suggesting that political bettors have moved over to the platform. "Contrary to expectations, top PolitFi memecoins failed to rally following the June 27, 2024, Presidential debate," Austin Freimuth, a research analyst at Messari wrote in a recent note shared over email. Freimuth estimated that Trump's Vice Presidential selection is anticipated to be the next significant event in the PolitFi space. "This announcement could potentially trigger the creation of new memecoins related to the chosen running mate," he said. Meanwhile, a Gavin Newsom token, trading as NOOSUM, is up 4% in the past 24 hours as the California Governor flies to D.C. to reportedly 'stand with' Biden as he meets with Democrat Governors. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/07/03/trump-biden-tussle-sees-polifi-sector-lose-lustre-as-boden-drops-95-from-peak/

2024-07-03 09:02

The digital asset industry added more than $750 billion in value in the first half of the year, the report said. The cryptocurrency industry is starting a major growth phase, the report said. Architect Partners said the industry added more than $750 billion in value in the first half of the year. Crypto, the stepchild of the internet, is outperforming its predecessor at the same part of their respective life cycles, the advisory firm said. The digital asset industry is beginning a major growth phase and is in a far better place than it was two years ago, investment bank Architect Partners said in a quarterly report published last week. The value of the crypto industry climbed more than $750 billion in the first half, the company said. Growth was driven by a surge in the value of crypto tokens equating to more than $700 billion, the successful launch of spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S., which drew in more than $15 billion, and the appreciation of publicly listed crypto companies, which added a further $11 billion. Crypto and the internet, both of which are disruptive technologies, have very similar characteristics, the report said, noting that the cryptocurrency market is recovering from the so-called crypto winter much faster than the internet recovered after the dot-com bubble burst in 2000. "Ironically, crypto has been the stepchild of the internet," but is now outperforming its predecessor and "exceeds the internet's value at the same portion of their respective life cycles," Architect said. Deal activity is also on the rise, with the announced transaction value in the second quarter hitting a record high of $2.7 billion, exceeding the combined value of the previous eight quarters, the report noted. Architect said confidence and momentum in markets are back, with the crypto winter in the past, and "professionalism, risk management, ethical behavior, and 'doing it right' are finally becoming the foundational principles of crypto." https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/07/03/crypto-industry-is-about-to-boom-is-outperforming-the-internet-architect-partners/

2024-07-03 07:48

U.S.-listed ETFs ended a five-day inflow streak with $13 million in net outflows on Tuesday, while concerns of the Mt. Gox distribution may have contributed to a sell-off. Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies experienced sharp declines during Asian trading hours, reversing gains made earlier in the week. The price drop was attributed partly to concerns of large BTC sales from the defunct Mt. Gox exchange, which is set to distribute assets stolen in a 2014 hack later this month. One trader continues to predict a BTC price of $150,000 this year, despite the short-term turbulence. Bitcoin (BTC) led declines in Asian trading hours as major tokens wiped out gains made at the start of the week. BTC dropped to $60,900 from over $62,000 shortly after Tokyo markets opened, with losses of up to 3% across ether (ETH), Solana's SOL and dogecoin (DOGE). XRP was little changed while Cardano's ADA pared some gains from a Tuesday rally as its development foundation published certain indicators to comply with European regulatory requirements. The broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a liquid index of the biggest tokens, has fallen more than 1.7% in the past 24 hours. The declines came as U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking bitcoin recorded outflows of $13 million, breaking a five-day streak of inflows. Concerns that large BTC sales would follow distributions by the defunct Mt. Gox exchange probably contributed to bearish sentiment, Singapore-based QCP Capital said in a Telegram broadcast on Tuesday, "The Mt Gox release is also slated to happen this week," QCP Capital said. "This overhang of up to 140,000 BTC should continue to weigh on markets, especially since the exact release schedule is unknown right now." Mt. Gox will start distributing assets stolen from clients in a 2014 hack in July 2024, after years of postponed deadlines. The repayments will be made in bitcoin and bitcoin cash, and could possibly add selling pressure to both markets, as previously reported. However, some traders' long-term bullish outlooks remains intact, with expectations of a rally of up to $150,000 after the Mt. Gox distribution is completed. "One of the biggest overhangs is going to disappear in July, I think it's a reason to expect a sharp rebound in the second half," Tom Lee, the head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said in a CNBC interview Tuesday. "$150 [thousand] is within …" Lee first said in February that he expects BTC to reach $150,000 in 2024 because of demand from the spot ETFs, the reward halving and Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/07/03/bitcoin-sinks-under-61k-as-one-trader-sticks-to-150k-prediction-this-year/

2024-07-03 07:25

In March, the Middle-East-focused Mantra raised $11 million for its real-world tokenization efforts. The firm will tokenize the real estate assets in several tranches. Investors will earn yields through stablecoins and OM tokens. Mantra Chain will tokenize $500 million worth of assets of Dubai-based real estate developer MAG Group, the firms said in a press release shared with CoinDesk. Mantra, which is focused on the Middle East, will tokenize the assets in multiple tranches. The first tranche will include a residential project, Keturah Reserve, which is being built by MAG in Meydan, Dubai. The tranche will also package a $75 million mega-mansion at ‘The Ritz-Carlton Residences, Dubai, Creekside’ development, part of the Keturah Resort. Investors will earn yield through stablecoins and Mantra's OM token. They are expected to have receive yields of 8% from the stablecoins and be granted additional OM tokens. "The specifics of the yield, such as which stablecoin will be used and the amount of OM to be allocated, are under discussion among MAG and Mantra," the companies said, adding that they will start the final discussions in the coming weeks. At the time of writing, OM was trading at 84 cents, after touching an all-time high of over a dollar in June, according to CoinMarketCap. Crypto firms have been pushing for tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) as another use for crypto and blockchain. Although the trend has garnered support from some traditional industries, broad adoption is likely to take time. Recently, McKinsey noted that the market for tokenized assets may reach $4 trillion by 2030 in an optimistic scenario, and warned that mass adoption for RWA is still far away. In March, Mantra raised $11 million for real-world tokenization. The firm was in the final stages of securing licensures from Dubai’s crypto regulator VARA, founder John Patrick Mullin told CoinDesk in March. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/07/03/mantra-to-tokenize-500m-real-estate-assets-for-uae-builder-mag-group/