2024-06-28 15:46
The price of bitcoin has dipped nearly 15% during the second quarter and altcoins fared even worse. A powerful start to 2024 had the bulls predicting $100,000 bitcoin (BTC) at some point this year, but relentless selling pressure during April and June (interrupted by a May bounce) has the price struggling not to drop below $60,000 as the quarter draws to a close. Entering the second quarter, bitcoin was trading just shy of the $71,000 level and at press time (about 60 hours before Q2 officially closes) was changing hands at $60,800, a decline of more than 14%. Helped by the tailwind of what now appears to be certain spot ETF approval, ether (ETH) outperformed, but was still in the red in the second quarter with about a 5% drop. Dragged down by even larger declines in many altcoins, the broader CoinDesk Index fell more than 21% during the last three months. Among the movers, Solana (SOL) tumbled 30%, Ripple's (XRP) dropped 23% and Dogecoin (DOGE) plunged 42%. The index's best performer was the above-mentioned ether with its 5% slide. Positive catalysts vanish Bitcoin's disappointing second quarter price action, for now, can possibly be thought of as a correction within a larger bull move that saw the token rise nearly five-fold from January 2023 lows to a new all-time record above $73,500 in mid-March of this year. Anticipation of the spot bitcoin ETF approval, then the approval, and then the massive inflows into the new funds were surely major catalysts for the rise. Also in play were macro factors – namely the anticipation of a sizable series of interest rate cuts in 2024 from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Inflation, however, has failed to cooperate, and to date there has been no easing of monetary policy in the U.S., with more than one member of the central bank now not expecting to cut rates even once this year. With ETF inflows old news and even on occasion reversing to outflows, and hopes for lower interest rates diminishing daily, buyers appear to have taken to the sidelines until a new catalyst arises. More pain in store in Q3? Bitcoin entered a downtrend on June 20, writes Markus Thielen at 10X Research, laying out ten reasons why the price could decline to $55,000 in the near term. Thielen noted that many trend-following funds are looking at the same signals and might be inclined to pile into short positions. In addition, while some bulls may have been excited that the presidential debate seemed to favor Donald Trump – who has recently come out as notably pro-crypto and pro-bitcoin – Thielen suggested President Biden's poor performance heightened the chance of a replacement Democratic nominee who might end up as a far more formidable opponent in the November election. Thielen also reminded about seasonality. The third quarter has historically been the weakest one, with an average return of just 5% over the past 13 years. This compares to average returns above 60% in both the second and fourth quarters. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/06/28/bitcoin-and-crypto-closing-out-lame-quarter-and-one-analyst-believes-more-pain-could-be-in-store/
2024-06-28 09:32
Powell said he is supporting the only major pro-crypto party candidate. Kraken co-founder Jesse Powell donated $1 million to U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump. Powell joins the Winklevoss twins, founders of the Gemini exchange, in helping fund his campaign. Jesse Powell, a co-founder of the crypto exchange Kraken, said he donated $1 million to Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump, most of which was in ether (ETH). "I am excited to join other leaders from our community to unite behind the only pro-crypto major party candidate in the 2024 Presidential election," Powell posted on his X account. Trump has emerged as a pro-crypto candidate during the election campaign. Last month, he said he was accepting donations in crypto. He has called for all bitcoin to be made in the U.S. and said the nation should be a leader in the crypto field. He has yet, however, to suggest any policies for crypto. The topic did not arise during yesterday's first presidential debate against President Joe Biden, despite the crypto community's best efforts. Powell joins other personalities in the crypto community who have been fueling Trump's campaign. Gemini exchange founders the Winklevoss twins said they had each given Trump $1 million, though some was reportedly refunded to comply with donation limits. https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/06/28/kraken-co-founder-jesse-powell-donates-1m-mostly-ether-to-donald-trump/
2024-06-28 07:03
The crypto market is being overly pessimistic about the imminent launch of spot ether ETFs in the U.S. and net inflows could hit $20 billion in the first year, Steno Research said. Steno Research predicts net inflows of $15-20 billion into ether spot ETFs in the first 12 months. Ether is expected to hit $6,500 later this year due to strong ETF inflows and other positive factors, the report said. Galaxy Research estimates $5 billion of net inflows to spot ether ETFs in the first five months, Bitwise expects $15 billion of inflows in the initial 18 months. The crypto market is being overly pessimistic about the imminent launch of spot ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. and net inflows could hit $20 billion in the first year as the cryptocurrency has qualities that appeal to Wall Street, Steno Research said in a report on Thursday. “We continue to forecast a net inflow between $15 billion and $20 billion in the first 12 months, even considering the outflow from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE),” senior analyst Mads Eberhardt wrote, adding that this should drive the value of ether higher, in dollar terms and also relative to bitcoin (BTC). Ether is predicted to reach at least $6,500 later this year due to these expected inflows to spot ETFs, plus additional tailwinds, the report said. Spot ether ETFs are on the cusp of becoming available for trading in the U.S. after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) greenlighted filings from issuers last month. Once the S-1 filings are approved the new products will start trading, and this could happen as soon as next week according to reports. If the estimated spot ether ETF inflows are correct, the ether/bitcoin ratio should strengthen to 0.065 later this year, Steno said. “A smaller inflow into ether ETFs compared to bitcoin ETFs will have a greater impact on ether due to its lower market capitalization and substantially poorer liquidity,” and as a result of this inflows into ETH spot ETFS are more likely to surprise to the upside than the downside, the report added. Steno is more bullish on the outlook for spot ether ETFs flows than others. Galaxy (GLXY) Research said spot ether ETFs could see $5 billion of net inflows in the first five months. Asset Manager Bitwise predicted $15 billion of net inflows in the first 18 months. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/06/28/ether-to-hit-65k-later-this-year-driven-by-inflows-into-spot-etfs-analyst/
2024-06-28 06:27
The so-called old hands have been selling coins this quarter, adding to bearish pressures in the market. A wallet inactive for six years moved 1,000 BTC to Coinbase early Friday. The so-called old hands have been selling coins this quarter, adding to bearish pressures in the market. Volatility may rise later Friday following the release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Out of the blue, a whale wallet that had been inactive for six years sprung to life early Friday, moving bitcoin {[BTC}} to Coinbase as the leading cryptocurrency faded the spike above $62,000. The crypto wallet identified as 12EMDoUhaNCuWZeeT6ey61AkjKyzmjV2m3 deposited a substantial 1,000 BTC, valued at over $61 million, to Coinbase Pro, according to data tracked by Lookonchain and Arkham Intelligence. Notably, these coins were acquired six years ago for a mere $6.68 million. A whale is wallet that holds 1000 BTC or more. This quarter, there has been a noticeable increase in the so-called dormant bitcoin wallets stirring into action by moving coins to exchanges. On Thursday, a wallet tied to a bitcoin miner woke up for the first time in 14 years and sent 50 BTC to Binance. Analysts speculate that these dormant holders might be looking to cash out while prices hover near record highs or engage in speculative activities in the derivatives market. The selling by long-term holders, coupled with faster liquidations by miners and the German government's divestment of coin holdings, has pushed prices lower by nearly 9% this month. As of writing, bitcoin changed hands at $61,550, having failed to keep gains above the $62,000 mark at least four times since Tuesday, CoinDesk data show. Price volatility may pick up later Friday following the release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for May. Per Bloomberg, economists expect no change in the PCE price index and a marginal 0.1% increase in the core PCE, leading to 2.6% annual advances in the headline and core figures. A benign inflation print might strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts this year and put a floor under BTC, which, currently, looks set for a deeper slide toward $50,000, per some observers. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/06/28/long-dormant-whale-sends-61m-btc-to-coinbase-onchain-data-shows/
2024-06-28 06:09
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said this will be the 'ghost pepper' of ETF hot sauce. T-Rex Group has filed for new ETFs that take a leveraged long or short position in Microstrategy (MSTR). MSTR is known for its volatility given its heavy exposure to bitcoin. T-Rex Group, the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) issuer, has filed for an ETF that will take a 2x long position in bitcoin (BTC)-heavy Microstrategy (MSTR). According to a filing published on the Securities and Exchange Commission's EDGAR platform, the T-Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF aims to achieve 200% of MicroStrategy's daily performance. T-Rex also filed for an ETF that would take a 2x inverted position in MSTR. Effectively, both of these listed products would be a leveraged long or short on bitcoin. MSTR, with its heavy exposure to bitcoin, is known for its volatility as it tracks the world's largest digital asset. The stock's current implied volatility is high at 85.6, but trending lower than its recent average, as bitcoin's price remains stable. Recently its CEO, Michael Saylor, announced the firm would offer $500 million in convertible notes to boost its bitcoin holdings. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas wrote on X that these ETFs would be a "near-lock to be the most volatile ETFs ever seen in the U.S, with 20x the volatility of the SPX." They will be the "ghost pepper of ETF hot sauce", he said. ETF issuers Defiance and GraniteShares have also listed products that take a short position in MSTR. T-Rex also filed for six leveraged inverse bitcoin ETFs in March, with positions ranging from 1.5x-2x. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/06/28/t-rex-group-files-for-2x-long-inverse-microstrategy-etf/
2024-06-28 04:06
Biden's chances at becoming the Democratic nominee also slid to 70%, while Gavin Newsom's odds jumped to 15%. Republican candidate Donald Trump's odds of winning the 2024 election surged on Polymarket after the first debate. There's a growing market sentiment on the platform that President Biden will either not be the Democratic nominee or drop out of the race. Blockchain bettors were skeptical of President Biden's performance in the first debate of the 2024 election cycle, pushing up former President Trump's odds of winning the November election to as high as 67%. A contract asking bettors to declare the outcome of the 2024 election currently has close to $188 million on the line, with around $23 million on Trump and $21 million on Biden. Polymarket said it suffered a brief downtime as the debate started because of a large wave of traffic. A growing skepticism about Biden's chances of going the distance to election day has been reinforced by looking at market sentiment. According to Polymarket, there's a less than 70% chance that Biden will be the Democrat's nominee, with California governor Gavin Newsom hitting a high of 17% and Michelle Obama up to 7%. Another contract asking if Biden would drop out of the presidential race surged during the debate to 43%. Meanwhile, PoliFi token traders pushed both major tokens representing Trump and Biden well into the red. According to CoinGecko data, the MAGA token, which trades under the ticker TRUMP, is down 12.5%, while the BODEN token is down 34%. TREMP is also down 10%. The DJT token, in the headlines recently for its apparent connection to Barron Trump, is down 5%. Crypto was not mentioned during this debate despite it becoming a Republican campaign issue. A Polymarket contract asking if Trump will mention crypto or bitcoin pegged it as unlikely, topping out at 6%. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was not invited to this debate; however, a special broadcast on X in which he responded to the questions asked during the Trump-Biden debate got 5.6 million views on the social media platform. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/06/28/trump-surges-to-67-in-polymarket-odds-post-presidential-debate/
