2024-06-25 07:53

The defunct crypto exchange’s trustees said Monday they are preparing to start distributing bitcoin (BTC) stolen from clients in a 2014 hack in the first week of July. Traders believe the selling pressure from Mt. Gox's repayments might be less severe than anticipated, potentially easing concerns about an immediate selloff. Galaxy Research suggests that a significant portion of the distributed Bitcoin may not be immediately sold, as most will likely be held by creditors due to their low-cost basis. Crypto traders say selling pressure from Mt. Gox’s newly announced repayments could be much less than market observers fear, easing concerns about an imminent selloff. “The impact on bitcoin's price from Mt. Gox distributing Bitcoin is likely overblown,” Sam Callahan, senior analyst at Swan Bitcoin, said in a Tuesday email to CoinDesk. “Creditors who wanted to sell their bitcoin have now had more than 10 years to do so through selling their bankruptcy claims to more convicted, long-term investors. “In addition, most creditors will likely hold their bitcoin because their cost basis is less than $700 per bitcoin,” he added. Galaxy Research said in a Monday note that of the total 141,000 BTC earmarked for distribution, 65,000 BTC will be delivered to individual creditors, and another 30,000 BTC will be delivered to claims funds and a separate bankruptcy. “It's reasonable to assume that most of the BTC received by funds that acquired claims from creditors will be distributed to LPs in kind and not sold off,” the firm said, alleviating concerns. The defunct crypto exchange’s trustees said they are preparing to distribute the bitcoin (BTC) stolen from clients in a 2014 hack in the first week of July. The exact bitcoin amount to be distributed remains unknown publicly, but the exchange consolidated 140,000 BTC, worth around $9 billion, from multiple cold wallets to a single address in May. Expectations of the upcoming selling pressure sent bitcoin spiraling down more than 4% on Monday, briefly driving it below $60,000 for the first time since early May. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/06/25/mt-gox-redemption-fears-overblown-say-traders-as-10b-btc-holdings-draw-concerns/

2024-06-25 07:46

BTC's dominance tanked Monday as news of Mt. Gox repayments bolstered concerns of supply overhang entering the market. BTC's dominance rate slid as Mt. Gox news weighs over BTC. Short-duration options show renewed bias for puts or downside protection. Some observers say Mt. Gox concerns may be overblown. Bitcoin (BTC) is usually less volatile than alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins), but Monday was different. The leading cryptocurrency took a bigger hit than smaller tokens, leading to a marked slide in its market dominance in a compelling portrayal of the apprehensions about the impact of impending payouts to victims of a 2014 Mt. Gox hack. BTC's dominance, or share of total crypto market value, fell by 1.8% to 54.34%, the biggest single-day percentage decline since Jan. 12, according to charting platform TradingView. In other words, investors likely pulled money from bitcoin faster than from its peers. The cryptocurrency's price fell nearly 5%, hitting lows under $59,000 at one point, CoinDesk data show. The sell-off was not without cause. News that the defunct crypto exchange planned to distribute 140,000 BTC to the hack victims in July bolstered concerns the recipients would look to sell once they had their payouts, creating a supply overhang in the market. That added to pressures mounting since June 7 due to faster selling by miners and outflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Sell-off concerns boosted demand for short-term BTC put options on the Deribit exchange, according to data tracked by Amberdata. Put options offer protection against price slides in the underlying asset. The seven-day and one-month call-put skews, which indicate what traders are willing to pay to acquire an asymmetric payout in the upward or downward direction over one week and one month, have flipped negative. That's a sign of renewed demand for puts. Some observers, however, say the actual selling pressure from Mt. Gox reimbursements may be more measured. "The exact amount of Mt. Gox funds to be distributed in July are not specified, but it is part of a larger reimbursement plan that includes 142,000 Bitcoin and 143,000 Bitcoin Cash, as well as fiat currency totaling 69bn Japanese yen ($432mn)," Tagus Capital said in a market note. "However, Mt. Gox creditors may hold their Bitcoin rather than sell, as they are long-term investors who resisted previous offers for USD payouts and may face capital gains tax on sales," Tagus Capital said in a market note," Tagus Capital added. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/06/25/mt-gox-effect-bitcoin-dominance-drops-most-in-5-months/

2024-06-25 05:55

Bitcoin briefly touched $59K in the early hours of the Asian+ trading day. Bitcoin is trading above $61K after plunging to $59K as Asia began its trading day Bitcoin has seen significant selling pressure from continued ETF outflow, Mt. Gox's upcoming bankruptcy redemptions, and miner sales. Bitcoin (BTC) is stable above $61,000 after dropping to $59,200 during the early hours of the Asian trading day. The world's largest digital asset is down 2% in the last 24 hours and 6% in the last 7 days, according to CoinDesk Indices data. CoinDesk Indices Bitcoin Trend Indicator is showing a significant downtrend, while the CoinDesk 20, a measure of the largest digital assets, is flat as ether (ETH) has not seen the same significant pricing pressure at BTC. Ether staking protocol Lido (LDO) continues to outperform the market up 14% on-day and 25% in the last week as traders continue to be impressed with its fees, revenue, and total value locked. In the last few days, bitcoin has been experiencing significant sell pressure due to the coming Mt. Gox bankruptcy redemptions and sales by miners. Market data shows that the bitcoin ETFs saw an outflow of $174 million as trading closed in New York on Monday afternoon. The ETFs finished last week with a nearly $1 billion outflow. Polymarket bettors are giving a 14% chance of bitcoin rebounding to $65K by the end of the week, while they are giving a 71% chance that the ether ETF will begin trading by July 4. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/06/25/bitcoin-holds-61k-after-a-brief-nosedive/

2024-06-25 04:27

Wikileaks co-founder pleads guilty to single espionage charge in exchange to a sentence for time served. Wikileaks co-founder Julian Assange is now a free man after he struck a plea deal with the U.S. Department of Justice. Wikileaks and crypto have an intertwined history. Julian Assange is free. The Wikileaks co-founder, who spent five years in a U.K. jail cell and nearly seven years holed up in Ecuador's embassy in London, boarded a private jet at Stanstead airport and left the country, WikiLeaks announced on X. Assange's departure from the U.K. follows prolonged negotiations with the U.S. Department of Justice, culminating in a deal that has not yet been formally finalized. Assange was arrested in the U.K. for breaching his bail conditions after seeking asylum in Ecuador's London Embassy to avoid extradition on various charges, including those related to his role in publishing classified documents provided by Chelsea Manning. Manning had her own sentence commuted in 2013 by then-President Obama. Assange's first stop is Saipan, the capital of the Northern Mariana Islands, a U.S. protectorate, where he is expected to be sentenced to five years while getting credit for the five years of time served in the U.K. Wikileaks and crypto The history of Wikileaks and crypto has been closely intertwined. In a 2014 interview, Assange said that bitcoin and Wikileaks helped keep each other alive. As CoinDesk reported at the time, Assange said that Wikileaks initially refrained from accepting bitcoin to avoid drawing government scrutiny that could hinder the cryptocurrency's growth after a personal request from bitcoin founder Satoshi Nakamoto. Later, when facing a financial blockade, it adopted bitcoin for donations, providing vital funding for Wikileaks and simultaneously enhancing BTC's legitimacy and utility. In 2017, when rumors circulated that Assange was dead, he read off the latest bitcoin block hash as a proof-of-life. During his legal battle with the U.S. and U.K governments, Assange and Wikileaks supporters turned to a Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO) to help fundraise for his legal fight, raising over 16,500 ether – over $55.2 million at current prices – for his defense. https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/06/25/julian-assange-reaches-plea-deal-with-us-doj/

2024-06-24 16:39

At least one analyst believes fewer coins will be distributed than is commonly thought and thus the sell pressure might be less than expected. Bitcoin (BTC) is leading crypto prices sharply lower Monday after the trustee for the defunct Mt. Gox crypto exchange said it will begin returning more than 140,000 BTC in July to clients whose assets were stolen in a 2014 hack. At press time, bitcoin was trading at $60,700, down more than 5% over the past 24 hours and at its weakest level since the beginning of May. Ether (ETH) was lower by similar amount as was the broader CoinDesk 20 Index. Those selling today are contemplating the effect of more than 140,000 bitcoin hitting the market in less than one month. Putting that number in perspective, it would be just less than the immediate liquidation of Fidelity's spot bitcoin ETF, which at last check held 167,375 bitcoin. "We think fewer coins will be distributed than people think and that it will cause less bitcoin sell pressure than market expects," said Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy. Thorn said his research suggests 75% of creditors will be taking the "early" payout in July, meaning a distribution of about 95,000 coins. Of that, Thorn believes 65,000 coins will be going to individual creditors, but he thinks they may prove more "diamond-handed" than most expect. Among the reasons, he said, is that they've already resisted years of "compelling and aggressive offers from claims funds," not to mention the capital gains taxes involved given bitcoin is up 140-fold since the bankruptcy. Turning to those claims funds, having had discussions with some, Thorn suggests the overwhelming majority of the partners in those funds are high net worth bitcoiners looking to build their stack at a discount, as opposed to arbs looking for a quick profitable trade. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/06/24/bitcoin-threatens-60k-on-mt-gox-news-but-sales-could-be-less-than-feared/

2024-06-24 16:22

Plus: $DJT believers dispute the resolution of a Polymarket bet, insisting the "preponderance of evidence" shows Barron Trump's involvement. This week in prediction markets: Joe Biden likely will win the popular vote – but not the election, Polymarket prices signal. The incumbent U.S. president isn't accepting crypto donations (yet). Barron Trump’s alleged involvement with the Martin Shkreli-backed DJT token is … a matter of debate. Donald Trump is one of only five U.S. presidents who won the electoral college, and thus the nation's highest office, despite losing the popular vote. If prediction markets are correct, he will repeat that feat this year. On Polymarket's contract asking who will win the popular vote, "yes" shares for President Joe Biden are trading at 56 cents, indicating the market sees a 56% chance of the incumbent prevailing. Each share pays out $1 (in the USDC stablecoin) if the prediction comes true, and zero if it does not. Trump, meanwhile, has only a 36% chance of winning the popular vote, according to recent prices. Traders have bet $36 million on this question, making it Polymarket's fourth-largest market by volume. The largest by far, of course, is the one on who will win the presidency, with a record $182 million of bets placed. Here, Trump is the clear favorite, with a 57% chance of winning versus 35% for Biden. Under a regulatory settlement, Polymarket blocks U.S. users, so its traders are presumably making predictions from afar. PredictIt, a more traditional U.S. election betting site that settles bets in dollars with a quasi-regulatory blessing, gives Trump a 52% chance of winning the presidency and Biden 47%. The volume there is comparatively small, though, at $15.7 million. The Electoral College was conceived at the Constitutional Convention of 1787. It is designed to balance the influence of populous and less populous states, ensure smaller states have a voice in the election, and prevent a few large states from dominating the outcome. The popular vote, which carries no electoral weight, is simply the proportion of votes cast for each candidate. The college consists of 538 electors. A majority of 270 electors' votes is required to win the presidency. Each state has the same number of electors as it does members in its Congressional delegation: one for each member of the House of Representatives (the number of House members is proportional to a state's population) plus two Senators. Critics of this time-honored system call it undemocratic, while its defenders argue that it is a bulwark protecting the rights of the minority against potential tyranny of the majority. This much seems certain: If the Polymarket bettors are right and Trump does win the electoral college while losing the popular vote, "Not My President" rallies will be back in vogue. Donation negation Nearly two weeks after a report surfaced that Biden would follow Trump in accepting cryptocurrency donations, the president's campaign still hasn't done so, to the detriment of Polymarket traders who bet it would. To be fair, the "Biden accepts crypto donations by Friday?" contract, which launched June 12, had a tight timeframe of nine days. The odds were as high as 48% early on but plummeted to zero. The market resolved to "no" on June 21, because the campaign had made no such announcement. If Biden is weighing the option as claimed, it's still possible an announcement could come later. That's one of the risks of prediction markets: It's possible to make a bet that's directionally correct but still lose money because it didn't come true within the agreed-upon timeframe. Trump's wholehearted embrace of crypto in May was followed by signs the Biden administration was softening its hardline stance against the industry, making plausible the scenario in which the incumbent would accept crypto donations. Barron drama Was Donald Trump's son Barron really a part of the team behind the Solana-based DJT token that dominated crypto headlines and discourse last week? A Polymarket contract on that mystery resolved to "no" on Sunday but that decision was disputed. It resolved again to "no" and was disputed a second time. A final review is ongoing. It is expected to be closed Tuesday. Drama erupted on Monday in the Discord forum for UMA, the third-party oracle service responsible for refereeing bets on Polymarket. The forum was packed with “yes” shareholders making the case that their bet was correct. At issue is whether "a preponderance of evidence suggests that Barron Trump was involved in the creation of the Solana token $DJT," as spelled out in the Polymarket rules. Neither the Trump campaign nor Barron have made any public statements about the matter, so those insisting the preponderance of the evidence suggests his involvement are relying largely on the word of Martin "Pharma Bro" Shkreli, who served six years in prison for securities fraud. Shkreli said last week he created the token with Barron’s involvement following a contentious $100 million bet with popular crypto traders. The relatively new token made waves in the community over its supposed status as the “official” Trump token, buoyed mainly by reports alleging Barron was part of the team. Pseudonymous promoters gushed that the token was going to billions of dollars in market cap, and prices rocketed thousands of percent in a week. But radio silence from the Trump family soon caught on among followers. DJT prices have slumped more than 50% to 1 cent on Monday since a 3-cent peak on June 18. With the review pending, Polymarket traders are giving the claim a 19% of being true as of U.S. morning hours on Monday, down from a peak of 60% when the market was created on June 21. It has clocked over $693,000 in volumes, making it Polymarket's second-largest market on a crypto-related question. https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2024/06/24/biden-likely-to-win-popular-vote-but-not-presidency-prediction-market-signals/