2024-05-31 11:38

Gamblers have placed almost $900,000 in bets on the “Trump in jail before election day?” market on the predictions application Polymarket. Crypto punters on Polymarket give Donald Trump a 17% chance of going to jail before the November U.S. presidential election. The market for the bet has seen $900,000 in wagers from crypto users since its creation in January. Crypto punters are giving Donald Trump a 17% chance of going to jail before the U.S. presidential election in November, odds on predictions application Polymarket show. Trump was found guilty on Thursday by a New York jury on all 34 counts. He was accused of falsifying business records, becoming the first former president to be convicted in U.S. courts. Trump pleaded not guilty and said he will "keep fighting until the end," according to the BBC. Data shows that a market for “Trump in jail before election day?” saw increased buying and selling activity on Friday. The market was created in January and has racked up $900,000 in bets from crypto users. The market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump spends at least 48 consecutive hours in custody in a jail or prison between Jan. 5 and 11:59 p.m. ET on Nov. 5. Otherwise, it resolves to "No.” As of European morning hours, the odds of “Yes” are selling at 17 cents and “No” are at 85 cents. When it ends, the correct outcome will be worth $1. (The total may not add up to 100 at Polymarket due to market uncertainty and other price factors.) The chances of Trump actually going to jail before the election remain slim, Reuters reported. In Polymarket's “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market, the odds of Trump becoming president dropped 2 percentage points to 54% on Thursday. President Joe Biden’s chances grew to 40% from 38%. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/05/31/crypto-bettors-lay-17-odds-on-donald-trump-in-jail-before-election-day/

2024-05-31 11:01

The 50-day simple moving average marks major support at $64,870. Technical indicators suggest that bitcoin’s short-term momentum has flipped bearish. The 50-day simple moving average marks major support at $64,870. Technical indicators that gauge bitcoin's (BTC) price movement over the short term have flipped bearish, with crucial support positioned under $65,000. The cryptocurrency’s 10-day momentum, which compares the going market price with the price from 10 days ago, has declined below zero, indicating renewed negative momentum. Traders use the momentum indicator to confirm market trends and spot trend exhaustion. Similarly, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram, which employs the 26-day and 12-day exponential moving averages, has turned negative. The indicator is widely used to spot trend changes, with crossovers under zero signaling price losses. Both indicators suggest the path of least resistance is to the downside, which is consistent with analysts’ view that rising U.S. Treasury yields pose a downside risk to bitcoin. The pivotal 50-day simple moving average at $64,870 is the key support to watch out for. The probability of a drop toward the same would increase should the U.S. inflation data, due later Friday, beat estimates. The upper end of the channel, identified by trendlines connecting highs and lows hit in March and April, is the resistance for the bulls to beat. A move higher would mean the resumption of the broader uptrend. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/05/31/bitcoins-short-term-momentum-flips-bearish-support-under-65k/

2024-05-31 07:46

Hardening government bond yields post a risk to risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, one crypto observer said. Rising bond yields pose a risk to bitcoin, crypto trader Chang told CoinDesk. The present level of bond yields could weigh on all assets, Goldman Sachs said. While bitcoin (BTC) continues to chop at elevated price levels just below record highs, suggesting a typical temporary bull-market pause, at least one observer is worried that recent macroeconomic developments could impede a move higher. "Bitcoin is still strong, but macro factors are threatening," crypto options trader and market analyst Chang told CoinDesk in an interview. "Bond yields are very unstable as the demand is weak compared to U.S. Treasuries issuance. If there is a negative impact on bitcoin, it will likely be due to yields and the dollar index." Treasury yields have been rising, predominantly due to persistent U.S. debt concerns, the deluge of bond supply and the uptick in Japanese government bond yields. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has climbed 24 basis points to 4.55% in two weeks, according to data from charting platform TradingView. Several traditional market analysts say a move above 4.7% could inject volatility into stock markets. Other things being equal, elevated yields translate into higher borrowing costs for individuals and companies and dent the appeal of investing in relatively risky assets like bitcoin and technology stocks. Chang said he expects yields to remain volatile in June, ensuring a close correlation between bitcoin and stocks. The two-year Treasury yield is already approaching 5%. The ability to lock in returns of 5% in government bonds, which are seen as safe investments, might persuade macro traders to rotate money out of stocks, cryptocurrencies and other, riskier corners of the financial market. "We're now at a level of bond yields where rising yields from here are really going to weigh on all asset classes," Peter Oppenheimer at Goldman Sachs said Thursday on Bloomberg Surveillance. As such, traders will closely watch the personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for guidance on the direction of Federal Reserve interest rates. The data, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is scheduled for release on Friday at 8:30 EST (12:30 UTC). The overall PCE Price Index is forecast to have risen 2.7% on an annual basis in April, the same as in March, according to FactSet's consensus estimates. Forecasts see a 0.3% month-over-month increase, following March's 0.32% uptick. The consensus for the core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices, is a 2.8% rise in the annual rate and 0.3% month-on-month. "The most important main event of the day is PCE. The data the Fed loves. The 2% inflation target they talk about is PCE, not CPI. If the data beats expectations, people will not buy risk assets," Chang said. A bigger-than-expected jump in the core figure would weaken the case for renewed interest-rate cuts, leading to a further hardening of bond yields. At press time, the Fed funds futures showed investors pricing just 35 basis points of rate cuts this year. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/05/31/bitcoin-is-still-strong-but-macro-factors-pose-risk-crypto-analyst-says/

2024-05-31 06:57

A recent slew of tokens issued on Pump Fun by fairly well-known and local celebrities has gotten the crypto community divided on their purpose. Niche celebrities have recently launched tokens in the crypto market using the Pump Fun application on Solana. Early buyers of these celebrity-backed tokens have made significant profits, with some tokens netting six-figure profits in a short time. The ease of launching tokens and the subsequent profits have sparked criticism and concern within the crypto community, with some describing it as a "net negative" for the industry. It looks like froth season yet again in crypto markets as niche celebrities latch on to the instant meme coin creation hype. American media personality Caitlyn Jenner and rappers Iggy Azalea, Trippie Redd, and Davido have all launched tokens in the past week. They used the Pump Fun application, which recently caught fire on Solana by enabling anyone to easily issue a coin attached to an image. But the profits haven’t been widespread. Blockchain data suggests that early groups of traders were quick to accumulate most of the supply of these tokens before the celebrities promoted them on their X profiles – earning, in some cases, quick six-figure profits. For instance, Solana blockchain data shows a single address bought over 70% of Redd’s BANDO token shortly after it went live early Thursday. The tokens were then dispersed to 190 other wallet addresses, blockchain sleuth ZachXBT said on X. Nigerian record producer Davido’s DAVIDO token netted early buyers a profit of nearly $470,000 worth of Solana’s SOl tokens in just 11 hours, on-chain firm Lookonchain flagged, from just over $1,000 in initial capital. This analysis was done by tracking the deployer of the original token, counting how many tokens they acquired after issuance and the sales in the hours afterward. ZachXBT flagged that Davido had previously launched and promoted “multiple scams in the past” such as RapDoge, Echoke and Racksterli, an investment ponzi scheme. DEXTools data shows prices of these tokens dropped more than 99% in the days following their online promotion. “Their sole interest is to extract $$$ for minimal effort,” ZachXBT said in an X post. “A random meme coin shill out of nowhere does the space no good + does not prove they have a genuine interest.” Davido’s X profile did not return a comment requesting clarity on these allegations as of Friday morning. Iggy Azalea’s MOTHER apparently made early traders $2 million in profits, data tracking firm Bubblemaps said in an X post. Bubblemaps said 20% of the supply at issuance hours had been bought by a small bunch of wallets before Azalea posted about the token’s existence on X. The token is down 70% since Wednesday. Easy issuance, easy money All of these celebrity-promoted tokens were launched on Solana token generator Pump Fun. These tokens are automatically listed on the decentralized exchange Raydium after a certain trading volume is met. DEXTools data shows most of these tokens ran to market capitalizations of as much as $25 million in the hours after issuance, racking up tens of millions in trading volumes. However, all of them have been down more than 50% since highs – a sign of selling pressure amid the hype. The first of these celebrity tokens was Jenner’s JENNER meme token on Monday, which sowed confusion among market observers as its legitimacy was questioned due to past celebrity X account compromises. Jenner’s X profile has continued to promote the token, although CoinDesk has not received confirmation of her involvement in the token despite multiple messages to her official media inquiry department. While issuing tokens is not a harmful activity by itself, crypto market participants are criticizing how these celebrities have seemingly emerged out of the woodwork in an easy environment, making quick money from unsuspecting followers. Some have described this as a “net negative” for the industry. Memes are hard work Meanwhile, some meme coin developers told CoinDesk in Telegram interviews that while creating meme tokens may seem like a fun activity from the outside, they often require substantial effort to become long-term projects that win community trust. “Successful meme coins take a lot of effort: it takes time for the culture, community, and more to develop,” Floki core team member B told CoinDesk. “Even more so if you’re focusing on fundamentals instead of just quick hype, like we try to do at Floki.” “Many of these celebs are just banking on the hype with a pump and dump cash grab and extract as much liquidity as possible from their followers,” B added. However, B opined there’s a way to issue personal branded meme tokens and do it right. “Celebrities coming into crypto and participating in the ecosystem is definitely a good thing if done right. If they are really keen on launching tokens, however, they can launch social tokens around their brand and products and add value to the token for holders instead of the current trend where they launch a meme coin and allocate a portion of the supply to themselves only to proceed to dump it on unsuspecting followers almost immediately." https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/05/31/as-random-celebs-like-caitlyn-jenner-embrace-solana-meme-coins-early-hoarders-fare-best/

2024-05-30 23:38

The independent presidential candidate spoke Thursday at Consensus 2024 in Austin, Texas. AUSTIN, TEXAS — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said his presidential election opponent Donald Trump's guilty verdict Thursday may end up boosting Trump's prospects in November. "My belief is that it will end up helping President Trump among a large part of the American public," Kennedy said on stage at Consensus 2024 in Austin, Texas, hours after the news broke. Kennedy, breaking from his family's Democratic Party roots, is running as an independent, facing off against Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, and President Joe Biden. He said that his team's internal research shows he'd beat either Trump or Biden in a head-to-head contest in the presidential election but noted that if he dropped out of the race, more than half of his supporters would instead vote for Trump. "I'm not a fan of Trump's," Kennedy said. "The division in our country is largely down to him and Biden, and it's not a good thing for our country." Kennedy's Pro-Crypto Stance He delighted the standing-room-only crowd – filled with crypto enthusiasts – with comments in support of the technology. "Transactional freedom is absolutely as important as freedom of expression," he said. Crypto has in recent weeks become more prominent on the campaign trail. Trump has turned from past crypto skepticism to open support, including soliciting campaign donations denominated in crypto. While Biden has not expressed support, one-third of Democrats in the U.S. House just joined with Republicans to pass a crypto bill. Also, under the watch of Biden's Democratic administration, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission just took a big step toward approving exchange-traded funds designed to hold Ethereum's ether (ETH) – something that seemed unlikely just weeks ago. Before appearing on stage, Kennedy spoke to reporters at the Austin Convention Center. He was asked about Trump's new pro-crypto stance. "I'm happy about that," Kennedy said. "I think it's a good thing for our country. Commitment to crypto is a commitment to freedom and transparency. I'm not going to question if it was a political decision. I'm happy he did it, and I hope President Biden does, too." He also discussed his own feelings about crypto. "We need to make sure America remains the hub of blockchain technology," he said. "I'm going to make sure cryptocurrency is regulated in a way that protects the consumer from deceptive schemes." https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/05/30/rfk-jr-says-guilty-verdict-may-help-trumps-election-prospects/

2024-05-30 22:22

It's only a matter of time, the CEO of Ripple said on stage at Consensus 2024 in Austin. Brad Garlinghouse predicts the inevitable approval of XRP, Solana and Cardano ETFs, despite significant regulatory hurdles. Garlinghouse criticized the SEC's unclear crypto regulations, highlighting the need for better regulatory clarity in the U.S. AUSTIN, TEXAS — More crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are coming – following approval of spot bitcoin (BTC) ETFs and progress on ones designed to hold Ethereum's ether (ETH) – predicts the CEO of Ripple. "I think it's just a matter of time, and it's inevitable there's gonna be an XRP ETF, there's gonna be a Solana (SOL) ETF, there's gonna be a Cardano (ADA) ETF, and that's great," he said. Ripple is closely linked to XRP. Recently, ether ETFs made abrupt and unexpected progress, with key filings being approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Final approval is needed before they can begin trading. Cathie Wood, the CEO of ARK Invest, also said during Consensus that these ether ETFs were approved because crypto is now an election issue. Garlinghouse said that there will be a significant regulatory approval process before these are approved, but in the end these will be "speed bumps." Garlinghouse also railed against what he perceives as a lack of regulatory clarity from Washington. "[SEC Chair] Gary Gensler has been called to Congress, and when asked if ether is a security, he won't answer the question. Yet, he insists that the rules are very clear and don't need updating," he said. In 2022, the SEC kept confidential emails and notes from William Hinman's 2018 speech, which declared ether not a security. Ripple, sued by the SEC, obtained access to these redacted documents, revealing extensive internal SEC discussions about ether's status as a security. The U.S., the world's largest economy, represents, in Garlinghouse's opinion, the "bottom decile of regulatory clarity." "Somehow, [Gensler] believes that the Orange Grove tests from 70-80 years ago provide clear rules for crypto," he said, referring to the Howey Test's Floridian roots. "It makes no sense and is a travesty because the SEC's stance has become such a political liability, affecting even the presidential race." Garlinghouse also mentioned that last year 75% of Rippple's hiring was outside the U.S., and this year it's about 60%, with major offices in London, Geneva and Singapore. The hiring trends reflect Ripple's focus on regulatory clarity and customer locations, he said. "Getting the regulatory posture right in the United States is just critical," he concluded. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/05/30/ripples-brad-garlinghouse-foresees-xrp-solana-cardano-etfs/