2024-05-13 15:54

The U.S. stock market has circuit breakers that halt shares sometimes as a safeguard. That's funny to crypto folks. GameStop (GME) stock was halted multiple times amid a huge surge on Monday, drawing laughter from crypto fans. Crypto goes 24/7 without any circuit breakers, unlike the stock market. GameStop (GME) is yet again the stock of the day, soaring Monday due to support from traders gripped by meme-stock fever. But it was a stilted rally, halted repeated by the U.S. stock market's famous – or infamous, depending on one's perspective – system of "circuit breakers" designed to prevent prices from getting out of control. And that has enthusiasts of cryptocurrencies, where markets go 24/7 with no circuit breakers (except for the occasional exchange malfunction), laughing. The U.S. stock market got circuit breakers in stages following the harrowing crash of October 1987, initially set up as a brief whole-market shutdown in case of a rapid collapse and then later, following the so-called flash crash of May 2010, more tailored toward restraining individual stocks. These are government-mandated things. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady is credited with inventing the marketwide one after the 1987 crash. "The circuit breaker that I invented restores calm," he told a CoinDesk reporter at a prior job. Yet there are criticisms. If markets plunge but they're frozen, traders can't immediately swoop in and buy, driving prices back up. After Ethereum's ether (ETH) plunged to 10 cents from $317.81 in less than a second back in June 2017, Coinbase said it was considering introducing circuit breakers. It never did. Within 10 seconds, it was back above $300, an executive said at the time in an interview with Bloomberg. Back in 2024, everything from bitcoin (BTC) to dogwifhat (WIF) kept chugging along Monday as GameStop was temporarily stuck. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/05/13/crypto-howls-as-circuit-breakers-restrain-red-hot-gamestop-rally/

2024-05-13 14:53

The hack occurred on April 29, ZachXBT said. Rain was hit by a $14.8 million hack at the end of April. The exchange's pro version has been intermittently down since May 5. Bahrain-based crypto exchange Rain fell victim to a $14.8 million exploit, according to blockchain sleuth ZachXBT. The stolen funds have been divided up into wallets containing 137.9 BTC and 1,881 ETH, both of which have been inactive since the exploit occurred on April 29. "It appears the crypto exchange Rain was likely exploited for $14.8M on April 29, 2024 after their BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP wallets saw suspicious outflows. Funds were quickly transferred to instant exchanges and swapped for BTC and ETH," ZachXBT wrote on Telegram. The exchange's "pro" version, which is an advanced trading platform, has been intermittently down since May 5, according to Rain's website. Rain obtained a license to operate a virtual asset brokerage and custody service in the United Arab Emirates in 2023. Crypto investors lost $2 billion to hacks and exploits across the crypto industry last year. An additional $333 million was stolen in the first quarter of this year. Rain did not immediately respond to CoinDesk's request for comment. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/05/13/crypto-exchange-rain-hit-by-148m-exploit-zachxbt/

2024-05-13 14:10

Other election contracts show a 35% chance of a Republican sweep of the presidency and both houses of Congress and a 27% chance Democrats control the Senate after the election. This week in prediction markets: Polymarket is giving both Donald Trump and Joe Biden a 45% chance of winning the U.S. presidency – with former first lady Michelle Obama at 5% and wild card Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 3%. Bettors aren't decided on who is going to control the House and the Senate. The Polymarket election contract for the U.S. general is giving a split decision on the chances of former President Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden getting elected, which puts it at odds with polls. Currently, "yes" shares for Trump and Biden are both trading at 45 cents, indicating the market gives each candidate a 45% chance of winning. A share pays out $1 if the prediction turns out correct, and zilch if it doesn't. Traders on the crypto-based prediction market have wagered a record-breaking $124.43 million on the election; of that, $28.25 million has been bet on or against the two leading candidates. Michelle Obama, wife of former President Barack Obama, is trading at 5%, while independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is at 3%. This tie appears to come at Trump's expense, as the presence of longshot third-party contenders has helped Biden. Market data shows he's down one point in the last month while Biden is up three points. With this tie, prediction markets are breaking away from national polls, which they had been tracking closely for a period (but not always), that give Trump campaign an edge over Biden. Polls averaged by 538 show that Trump has a 0.7 percentage point lead over Biden – and Kennedy is coming in at 10% – whereas 270toWin gives Trump a 0.9 point margin. At the same time, there's a wide range of leads that pollsters are giving Trump. Some, like polls conducted by Harris in association with Harvard, give Trump a seven-point lead (in a five-way race with Biden, RFK, and two outlier candidates). A late April poll from CNN gives Trump a nine-point lead. Others, like TIPP Insights, give Biden a slight lead. YouGov's poll for The Economist agrees with Polymarket on the tie. The big change in the last few weeks has been a notable inflow of money into the Biden election contract – which has given the incumbent's odds a boost. Months ago, when the contract was in its infancy, Trump led by a commanding margin: 53% compared to Biden's 33%, which was completely out of alignment with national polling. At the same time, more money was bet on or against Trump than Biden: $6.46 million to $4.6 million. Perhaps the numbers will even out as the pool of participants becomes more inclusive. On PredictIt, the popular U.S. election market platform, traders favor Biden, with 50% odds, over Trump at 48%. Unlike Polymarket, which was banished from the U.S. under a regulatory settlement, PredictIt takes bets from Americans (for now, at least – last week the Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed to ban election contracts). Then again, Polymarket's nine-figure volume on the presidential election dwarfs PredictIt's, which totals 13.9 million shares, meaning the dollar volume is less than $14 million. Balance of power On Nov. 5, voters aren't just going to elect a President, but also vote for their local Congressman and Senator, with all 435 House seats up for election and 33 Senate seats being contested. Officially, the U.S. is a bicameral system, with the two legislative bodies working to craft bills that are sent to the president for signature. But the reality is the balance of power is a three-part affair, with the president able to reject what's sent to him, or bills dying from between the House and the Senate, or being substantially modified in the process. Hence, the balance of power is key, and Polymarket bettors are sure that the Republicans will control the Senate, as two different contracts asking the same question are coming to similar conclusions. In the first, which asks bettors about the balance of power post-2024 election, bettors are saying cumulatively between various options that they are approximately 77% sure Republicans will take the Senate. A similar contract asks about Senate control specifically after the election, which gives Democrats a 27% chance and Republicans a 74% chance, slightly underplaying the odds of the other contract. These two Senate-related contracts don't have a significant amount of money in them yet, so a more clear picture might emerge after they bulk up their treasuries. Regardless, with some pollsters reporting tight races and the possibility of ticket splitting it will be interesting to see how prediction markets shape up as election day gets closer. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/05/13/trump-and-biden-tied-on-polymarket-diverging-from-polls/

2024-05-13 12:50

In addition to common stocks, opportunistic crypto developers issued scores of meme coins on various blockchains to capitalize on the hype. A single post by @TheRoaringKitty, the X profile of retail trader Keith Gill, led to rallies in meme coins and GameStop stock (NYSE: GME). Users interpreted the post as a sign to focus on certain stocks. Gill’s cult following contributed to the GameStop short squeeze of January 2021. GME rose over 44% in GME pre-market trading, while AMC Entertainment Holdings jumped as much as 12% A single picture on Monday sparked rallies across some cat-themed meme coins and Gamestop stock (NYSE: GME) as market cults heralded the apparent return of TheRoaringKitty, the X profile of retail trader Keith Gill, who made his first post since late 2021. Gill posted a meme that refers to a period of “locking in,” a colloquial term for a period of intense focus or concentration. Users on X and Reddit largely seemed to consider the image as a sign to lock into trading markets. Stocks related to Gill and other “meme stocks,” surged. GME prices were up as high as 44% in pre-market trading, and surged as high as 100% on market open before trading was halted. Cinema chain AMC Entertainment Holdings (NYSE: AMC) was up 12% in pre-market, rising to as much as 30% after open. An unaffiliated GameStop meme coin on the Solana blockchain surged more than 550%, DEXTools data shows, while an AMC token jumped 1,200%. Some microcap cat-themed meme coins such as kitty (KITTY) rose thousands of percent, while larger tokens popcat (POPCAT) and mog (MOG) rose over 15%. Larger-cap meme coins (DOGE) and (SHIB) were higher by 5% and 7%, respectively. Data shows that opportunistic developers issued a slew of tokens referring to Gill, TheRoaringKitty, GameStop, and “stonks” – a meme term for stocks—in the past 24 hours. Who is Roaring Kitty? Gill’s analysis of the video game retailer GameStop on Reddit, starting in 2019 and gaining traction during the COVID pandemic, created a viral phenomenon at the time. It was largely cited as a driving factor in the GameStop short squeeze of January 2021 as several small-time traders banded together and purchased options and leveraged shares of the company. The stock rose from $4 to over $120 in a month and, at its peak, was up thousands of percent from its lifetime low of 64 cents in April 2020. Gill’s initial $53,000 investment was worth nearly $50 million at its peak, emerging as a rags-to-riches story of a lone trader making a fortune from his bedroom by betting against hedge funds. One of the most prolific losers was Melvin Capital, a fund that lost billions of dollars betting on the decline of meme stocks, among other bets that move against it. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/05/13/solana-memes-gamestop-stock-jumps-44-in-premarket-as-roaring-kitty-returns-on-x/

2024-05-13 12:02

The latest price moves in crypto markets in context for May 13, 2024. Latest Prices Top Stories Bitcoin (BTC) rose during the European morning on Monday, peaking at around $63,200, before retreating below $62,800. BTC may be again trying to rally above $64,000, of which there have been numerous instances this month, all of which have been sold off. This behavior, along with transaction numbers plummeting, points toward a consolidation in the market and the possibility of bitcoin being range-bound for the time being. At the time of writing, bitcoin is 2.34% higher in the last 24 hours at $62,543. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), which measures the broader digital market, has added 1.1%, with the likes of ETH and SOL showing more modest gains, trading just below $3,000 and $150 respectively. Bitcoin's price action since it attained new all-time highs in March has been characterized by lower lows and lower highs as a shift toward selling has taken hold in the market thanks to long- and short-term holders alike being in profit. “A failure below $60K could trigger something of a panic sell-off," FxPro trader Alex Kuptsikevich told CoinDesk in a note. "The positive scenario, in our opinion, will become the main one with a rise above $65K, fixing the price at the 50-day moving average and the reversal area in early May." He added that downward pressure is likely related to asset sell-offs by miners and concerns over tighter regulation of cryptocurrencies. Japanese investment and consulting firm Metaplanet has adopted bitcoin as a reserve asset to hedge against the country's debt burden and yen volatility. Metaplanet has acquired 117.7 BTC ($7.35 million) since April, imitating the strategy of MicroStrategy in the U.S. The ratio between Japan's gross debt and GDP currently exceeds 254%, the highest in the advanced world, according to data tracked by the IMF. For comparison, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has exceeded 123%. The yen has depreciated by 50% against the U.S. dollar since early 2021. "As the yen continues to weaken, Bitcoin offers a non-sovereign store of value that has, and may continue, to appreciate against traditional fiat currencies," Metaplanet said. Chart of the Day The chart shows the percentage change in the U.S. M2 from a year ago. M2 measures the money supply, including cash, checking deposits and other deposits readily convertible to cash. The M2 growth rate flipped positive in April, a positive sign for risk assets. "Simple rule ... liquidity leads risk assets," James Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, said. Source: fred.stlouisfed.org - Omkar Godbole Trending Posts Trump’s Pro-Crypto Bluster at NFT Gala Lacked Policy Substance Custody Provider Liminal Wins Approval in Abu Dhabi as It Extends Expansion in Asia Jack Dorsey Says Bitcoin Price Will Go Beyond $1 Million in 2030 https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/05/13/first-mover-americas-bitcoin-fails-to-hold-63k-may-remain-range-bound/

2024-05-13 11:57

Lower cost miners have increased market share since the bitcoin halving, the report said. Bitcoin mining difficulty fell about 6% last week, the report said. The broker noted that bitcoin miners with the lowest costs have increased market share since the halving. Bernstein said a pause in the bitcoin rally is good for lower cost miners as hashrates remain capped. Bitcoin (BTC) mining difficulty fell around 6% last week in the most significant decline since the crypto winter of December 2022, and this is a positive development for some of the miners, broker Bernstein said in a research report on Monday. The broker noted that with lower bitcoin prices and an almost doubling of costs since the halving, higher cost mining equipment has shut down, resulting in a drop in hashrate. “With the decrease in hashrate, market share of our 3 covered miners has gone up after halving by almost 20 basis points (bps),” analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra wrote, adding that “we expect the top 3 listed bitcoin miners to continue to consolidate market share via organic and M&A led expansion.” Hashrate refers to the total combined computational power that is being used to mine and process transactions on a proof-of-work blockchain. The leading bitcoin miners, Riot Platforms (RIOT) and CleanSpark (CLSK), have the lowest cost of production with strong balance sheets and cash positions, the report said. “A temporary pause in bitcoin price is actually good for the incumbent lower cost bitcoin miners, as hashrates remain capped and strong miners can execute on their aggressive capex and M&A plans to grow market share,” the authors wrote. “And finally, when bitcoin price momentum picks up, miners can harvest high dollar revenues over higher production,” the report added. The broker doesn’t predict a major drawdown in the bitcoin price, expecting the cryptocurrency to remain range-bound and to break out to the upside once spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) see allocations from registered investment advisors (RIAs), wealth platforms and other institutional funds. Bernstein has an outperform rating on CleanSpark and Riot Platforms and a market-perform rating on Marathon Digital (MARA). https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/05/13/bitcoin-mining-difficulty-slumped-last-week-in-biggest-decline-since-crypto-winter-bernstein/