2024-04-08 13:00

In his new role, Lee will advise law enforcement and tax agencies on how they can better fight crypto crime with Chainalysis data. Chainalysis has hired former IRS-CI chief Jim Lee for a newly-created position liaising with regulators, tax agencies, and law enforcement Lee will help those agencies better use Chainalysis’ data and tools to fight crypto crime In his time as IRS-CI chief, Lee helped take down darknet marketplaces Hydra and Welcome to Video Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis has hired Jim Lee, the former chief of the Internal Revenue Service’s Criminal Investigations (IRS-CI) unit, according to a memo from the company sent Monday. In his newly-created role of Global Head of Capacity Building, Lee will liaise with regulators, law enforcement, tax agencies and financial institutions, advising them on ways to build their capacity to fight crypto crime using Chainalysis’ data and tools. Lee retired from the IRS in March, after three years as IRS-CI chief and 29 years total of of service at the agency. Under his leadership, IRS-CI shut down Hydra, a darknet marketplace, and seized crypto from Hamas. Lee was also at the helm of the takedown of Welcome to Video, a darknet marketplace for child sexual abuse materials (CSAM) that accepted crypto payments. In the wake of the shut down, 23 children were rescued and 337 child abusers were arrested. Chainalysis also played a role in each of those three cases. “Crypto is the future of finance, which also means it's the future of crime,” Lee wrote in a Monday blog post on Chainalysis’ website. He added that each of the cases were “reflective of the fact that cryptocurrency is, at least in part, being used for a wide range of nefarious activities.” “But by equipping law enforcement agencies with the best-in-class tools and data to fight this activity, we can ensure that the crypto ecosystem remains as safe as possible, so that people around the world can realize its many benefits without fear of being targeted by criminals,” Lee said. Stephen Alpher edited this story. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/04/08/chainalysis-hires-former-irs-criminal-investigations-chief-jim-lee/

2024-04-08 12:10

The broker raised its price target for the software company to $1,875 from $990 and maintained its buy rating on the stock. MicroStrategy price target raised to $1,875 from $990 at Benchmark. The software company is well positioned to benefit from the upcoming bitcoin halving, the report said. The broker raised its bitcoin 2025 year-end price forecast to $150,000. MicroStrategy (MSTR) is particularly well positioned to benefit from the bitcoin (BTC) halving set to occur around April 20, when new supply of the cryptocurrency will be cut by 50%, broker Benchmark said in a research report on Monday. “We note that the three previous bitcoin halvings, in 2012, 2016, and 2020, saw explosive appreciation in bitcoin’s price occur only after the halving had taken place,” analyst Mark Palmer wrote. The quadrennial halving is when miner rewards are reduced, slowing the rate of growth in bitcoin supply. Benchmark raised its MicroStrategy price target to $1,875 from $990 while maintaining its buy rating. The new price target is based on the assumption that bitcoin will reach $150,000 by the end of 2025, up from $125,000 previously. MicroStrategy shares rose more than 11% to around $1,601 in trading before the official open of U.S. markets. “While the upcoming bitcoin halving will create a supply shock as the previous ones had, we believe the event’s impact could be magnified by the concurrent demand shock created by the emergence of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs),” Palmer wrote, adding that “we expect inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs to grow dramatically once institutions begin to invest in them in earnest.” MicroStrategy has a unique business model based on the acquisition and holding of bitcoin. The company is expected to continue to add to its bitcoin stash using proceeds from capital markets transactions and excess cash generated by its enterprise software business, the report said. Benchmark estimates that the company will hold 298,246 bitcoins by year-end 2025, up from the 214,246 coins it owned as of March 19. Rival broker BTIG said the software developer’s implied premium to bitcoin is supported by investors who want exposure to digital assets but may be unable to invest directly in the cryptocurrency or ETFs, and also supported by the company’s ability to accretively raise capital to purchase additional BTC, it wrote in a report on Friday. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/04/08/microstrategy-should-continue-to-rally-as-bitcoin-halving-nears-benchmark/

2024-04-08 11:00

The proposed move would allow eligible users to acquire up to four times more tokens than the standard quota per wallet, among other benefits. The “TOKEN Supercharge Program” aims to offer early access to TokenFi platform issuances for TOKEN holders and stakers, potentially allowing them to acquire up to four times more tokens than the standard quota per wallet. A minimum holding or staking of $1,000 worth of TOKEN is required for priority access, with additional benefits for higher holdings. Developers say the move could address potential issues of token sale events being sold out quickly to the general public, where TOKEN holders should instead benefit. The developers behind the TokenFi launchpad are presenting a proposal to boost the benefits for TOKEN users by allowing holders to gain early access to platform issuances. The “TOKEN Supercharge Program” will provide preferential treatment for TOKEN holders and stakers, allowing them to secure tokens ahead of the broader public if the proposal passes. The proposed move would further allow eligible users to acquire up to four times more tokens than the standard quota per wallet. Users who do not stake or hold TOKEN may face limited access to token sale events. Users must stake or hold a minimum of $1,000 worth of $TOKEN for the proposed priority access, with higher holdings offering additional advantages. “We have close to a dozen of these token launches already planned and due to be announced in the coming days and weeks,” TokenFi developer B told CoinDesk in a release. “However, we envision a scenario in which some of these token sale events could be sold out in minutes, especially if open to the general public.” This could result in the majority of $TOKEN stakers and holders being unable to participate in these events when they should be the main beneficiaries,” he added. TokenFi, which uses token (TOKEN) as its native digital asset, lets users launch any cryptocurrency without writing code. It was started in 2023 as a sister project to Floki, a former dog-themed meme coin that has since pivoted into a metaverse and decentralized finance platform. At the time of writing, TOKEN prices were little changed, trading at 16 cents, data shows. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/04/08/tokenfi-developers-propose-new-program-to-boost-benefits-for-token-holders/

2024-04-08 10:33

Bitcoin's recent triangular consolidation has ended with a bullish breakout, price chart shows. Bitcoin's triangular consolidation has ended with a bullish breakout, opening the door to $80,000, according to analysis by 10x Research. The latest breakout comes on the back of a blowout U.S. jobs report. Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency by market value, could soon rally to new record highs after breaking through a so-called triangle resistance, according to technical analysis by 10x Research. Early Monday, BTC rose past $72,000, passing through a triangular consolidation pattern identified by a resistance line connecting March 15 and March 27 highs and a support line connecting March 20 and April 3 lows. "If the breakout is bullish, which we suspect, bitcoin could climb above 80,000 during the next few weeks – if not earlier. Buying at $69,280 and setting a stop loss at $65,000 appears appropriate," Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research, said in a note sent to clients early Monday. The upside target of $80,000 equates to at least a 10% rise from the current price of $72,300. The breakout comes on the heels of a hotter-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report that highlighted the U.S. economic resilience, spurring risk-taking across all corners of the financial market. Bitcoin has been riding what can be described as an "everything rally" this year. Not only has the cryptocurrency soared to new highs, but so have traditional assets like Wall Street's tech-heavy index, Nasdaq, the broader S&P 500 and gold. The cryptocurrency's rally has been supported by persistent expansion in the supply of major stablecoins. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study price patterns to predict future trends in the asset. A symmetrical triangle, often called a coil, represents consolidation within a narrowing price range. The market typically builds energy during the consolidation, which is eventually unleashed in the direction in which the range is resolved. More often than not, symmetrical triangles end with a bullish breakout. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/04/08/bitcoin-may-rally-to-80k-on-triangle-break-technical-analysis/

2024-04-08 09:55

Options implied volatility is overpricing the event, Amberdata's Greg Magadini said. Bitcoin's impending reward halving, though monumental, is unlikely to cause a volatility explosion, according to Amberdata's Greg Magadini. The impact of the Bitcoin blockchain's reward halving on miners and the BTC price has been well documented over the years, leaving little room for a surprising outcome. Bitcoin's fourth mining-reward halving is due on April 20, when the blockchain's code will reduce the per-block bitcoin (BTC) issuance to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC. In the run-up, implied volatility (IV) on the largest cryptocurrency by market value has ticked higher, suggesting increased price turbulence in the days surrounding the quadrennial event. Still, one observer does not favor placing bullish bets on volatility. "From a qualitative perspective, I continue to believe paying a volatility premium for a highly predictable outcome (the BTC halving) isn't worth a volatility event premium," Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, said in a newsletter on Monday. Traders typically place bullish bets on volatility ahead of binary events, for which the market outcome is uncertain. Moreover, uncertainty opens the door to pre- and post-event price turbulence and has traders buying both call and put options or volatility futures to profit from any price swings. But the impact of Bitcoin's reward halving on its native cryptocurrency and miners has been well documented. The cryptocurrency has historically produced stellar rallies in the 12-18 months following the halving. It's important to note that major crypto events like Ethereum's Dencun upgrade, Shanghai upgrade, and spot BTC listings turned out to have little market impact, disappointing traders positioned for an event-led surge in price volatility. "Not to mention that nearly all the big volatility events in crypto (ETH PoS merge, ETH Shanghai upgrade, BTC spot ETF decision) had disappointed IV [implied volatility], buyers when RV [realized volatility] failed to materialize by very large margins," Magadini noted. Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility, which gauges the expected price turbulence over four weeks, has increased to an annualized 75% from 68% in a week, according to Amberdata. Meanwhile, the 30-day volatility risk premium (VRP), or the gap between 30-day implied and realized volatilities, has surpassed 10% for the first time since early March. The VRP tends to rise ahead of and following extraordinary market events and can drop to low levels during extended periods of calm markets. "Options implied volatility is overpricing the event," Magadini said, noting the uptick in VRP. Bitcoin changed hands at $71,800 at press time, representing a 3.5% gain on the day. The cryptocurrency has risen over 11% since hitting lows near $64,500 on April 2, CoinDesk data show. The CoinDesk 20 Index, a measure of the broader crypto market, had added 3.8% over 24 hours. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/04/08/bitcoin-halving-is-not-a-volatility-event-analyst-says-as-implied-volatility-rises/

2024-04-08 09:19

Crypto-related companies looked set to start the week on a positive note. U.S. crypto-related stocks looked set to start the week on a positive note after bitcoin (BTC) climbed through $72,000 for the first time since mid-March as its reward halving draws closer. Coinbase (COIN), the only U.S. traded crypto exchange, added 4.9% in pre-market trading, MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, rose 10% and BlackRock’s bitcoin exchange-traded fund (IBIT), added around 6.5%. The CoinDesk 20 Index, a measure of the broader crypto market, rose 3.1% over 24 hours. The halving, which cuts the amount bitcoin miners are paid for adding blocks to the blockchain by 50%, is on track for April 20. After it occurs, they will be rewarded with 3.125 BTC per block. Among miners, Marathon Digital (MARA) added 5.2% and Hut 8 (HUT), which merged with USBTC at the end of last year, gained 5.6%. Argo Blockchain (ARB), trading on the London Stock Exchange, rose 5%. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/04/08/crypto-stocks-gain-as-bitcoin-tops-72k-for-first-time-since-march/